tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55382622057708438212024-03-12T22:01:51.684-04:00Scholarly Financial PlannerThis is an archive of a blog providing financial planning and investment education for both consumers and advisors, and exploring the fiduciary duties of those providing personalized investment and financial advice. The new blog can be found at www.ronrhoades.com. Thank you.Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.comBlogger263125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-66002098330856336822023-01-31T16:45:00.005-05:002023-01-31T16:45:59.661-05:00New Blog<p>New posts by Ron will now appear at <a href="http://www.ronrhoades.com">www.ronrhoades.com</a>.</p><p>Ron now has his own financial planning and investment advisory firm, Scholar Financial, LLC. To learn more, please email: <b>Ron@ScholarFinancial.com</b>.'</p><p>Thank you.</p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-9153537450547101752021-12-28T10:54:00.004-05:002021-12-28T10:55:38.923-05:0012.27.2021 Summary of COVID-19 (and Omicron) Developments<p> </p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">A Review of Recent Research Regarding COVID-19<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">(with a Focus on the Omicron Variant)<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">(with comments on potential economic impacts)<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">As of December 27, 2021</b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Compiled by Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">DISCLAIMER: The following should not be considered
medical advice. The author of this compilation is neither a physician nor an
epidemiologist nor a medical researcher. The information set forth is compiled
from numerous sources, including (in many instances) recent “preprint” medical
research that has not yet been peer-reviewed. The following isprovided for
informational purposes only. If you possess questions about COVID infections,
vaccinations, booster shots, treatments, etc., please consult with your
physician.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><br /></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Research is
Ongoing, But Here Is a Summary:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Omicron Continues to Spread<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> <u>Fast</u></i><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">There is no doubt that Omicron is spreading <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">much faster</i> than prior variants have
done. One recent projection suggests that 60% of the U.S. population will
likely contract the Omicron variant in the coming months, with infections
peaking at 400,000 per week in early February.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Cases of COVID are surging in the U.S. and
internationally, per The New York Times’ </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Interactive COVID tracker</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt;">, with the vast majority of those cases being of the
Omicron variant. “The highly transmissible Omicron variant is sending daily
caseloads in parts of the United States soaring to levels higher than last
winter’s pandemic peak.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">New cases in the U.S. from Omicron may peak by late
January or early February, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
(IHME), although uncertainty in the projections is acknowledged.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Omicron is Much More <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Infectious</i> than Delta<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Omicron appears to reproduce more effectively in the
bronchial passages. In turn, this likely increases the transmissibility of the
virus, as it is expelled by breathing.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Obtaining a booster shot (Pfizer or Moderna) appears
to boost antibodies and reduce risk of infection, at least for a period of
time.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Severity</i>
of Infection for Many Who Catch the Omicron Variant of COVID <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">May</i> (On Average) Be Reduced<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Some studies (including those based upon real-world
observations) indicate that Omicron is less likely to cause severe illness
(i.e., hospitalization, and deaths),<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> on
average</i>, among those infected, in comparison to prior variants.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Omicron may be
less likely to reproduce in the lung tissue (other than bronchial passages), at
least for those who are already vaccinated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">While the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">rate </i>of
hospitalization from Omicron is likely to be lower, the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">number </i>of hospitalizations is likely to be higher, given the very
high number of cases that will occur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">While IMHE
projects an additional 172,000 deaths from December 13, 2021 to April 1, 2022,
due to Omicron, IMHE acknowledges a great uncertainly exists as to how severe
Omicron infection is.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Note, however, that there exists questions as to
whether there is sufficient research to reliably estimate whether the Omicron
variant causes (on average) less severe illness. For example:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The New York
State Department of Health reported that in New York City, an epicenter of the
Omicron outbreak, it "identified four-fold increases in COVID-19 hospital
admissions for children 18 and under beginning the week of Dec 5 through the
current week" with about half of the admissions are younger than five, an
age group that is vaccine ineligible.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> “On
average, 262 children have been in the hospital with Covid-19 on any given day
over the week that ended Dec. 24, according to data from the US Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention and the US Department of Health and Human
Services.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Hope exists. “[E]pidemiologists point out that one
common trajectory for viruses is for them to become less lethal but more
transmissible over time.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Impacts of COVID (and the Omicron variant) on the U.S.
Economy<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Restaurant reservations fell over the week ending December
27, 2021, and are now down 27% from 2019 levels, according to OpenTable.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Hotel occupancy rates were up 7.7% for the week ending
Dec. 18, 2021, compared to 2019 levels, according to Hotel Online.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
However, several sources cite somewhat lower hotel room searches or bookings
were made in past few weeks for future travel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">K-12 schools are unlikely to shut down for prolonged
periods, as research indicates that younger children are less at risk for
serious illness from COVID, and vaccinations are available now for students
over the age of 5 years of age. Also, research has demonstrated the detrimental
effects of school shutdowns, and the quality of learning appears to be
diminished for many students when quick transitions to online learning are
undertaken.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The prior variants of COVID-10 impacted manufacturers in
Asia, leading to factory shutdowns in many countries. This was a major cause of
supply chain disruptions, which also caused in large part by a significant rise
in U.S. consumer demand). Supply chain disruptions have in turn led to higher
prices in 2021 for many parts and goods and transportation, thereby leading to
a significant rise in the rate of U.S. inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The risk of
supply chain disruptions exists with Omicron. While high levels of vaccination
in Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam exist currently,<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Omicron has demonstrated its ability to infect persons despite prior
vaccinations (although less severe illness is usually the outcome).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Japan, South
Korea and Vietnam are detecting initial cases of Omicron in late December, in
small clusters. In contrast, China has already shut down one city, with people
barred from leavIng their homes except to buy necessities.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Unlike March and April of 2020, Omicron is unlikely to
lead to shutdowns of most businesses in the United<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>States, although many businesses may require
vaccinations and booster shots for workers (either by choice, or government
mandates). Some businesses will require proof of vaccinations (and in some
cases booster shots) for customers, as will some universities and colleges.
Other businesses (by government mandate or choice) may require staff and
customers to be masked.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The surge in the number of hospitalizations will put
additional strains on health care systems in the U.S., and around the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The recent approval by the Food and Drug
Administration of Pfizer’s pill (“Paxlovid”) to treat COVID-19, which pill
“reduced combined hospitaliztions and deaths by about 89% among high-risk
adults,”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
may assist in reducing the severity of the Omicron infection. Pfizer’s lab
results indicate the pill remains effective against the Omicron variant.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Only 65,000
courses of Pfizer’s pills will be delivered in late December,<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn14" name="_ftnref14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
with another 200,000 courses available and delivered in the United States
during January.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn15" name="_ftnref15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The U.S. “will
also have 3 million of Merck & Co.’s Covid pill, developed with partner
Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP, by the end of January.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn16" name="_ftnref16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
However, Merck’s pill appears to be less effective, as the “data showed it cut
the risk of hospitalization or death by 30% among high-risk adults.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn17" name="_ftnref17" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn17;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Long COVID continues to be a drag on the level of
employment in the U.S. (although other factors exist, such as substantially
higher costs for child care since COVID emerged, early retirements by many
workers, and fear of COVID preventing some from returning to work). Shortages
of workers in the U.S. persist, which in turn tends to stoke wage-driven
inflationary pressures and increases the danger (still somewhat low) of a
wage-price spiral occurring.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">For those with
long COVID, cognitive and physical deficits persist many months after discharge
in people previously hospitalized with acute COVID-19. However, there is
considerable variation in the severity of symptoms and their persistence.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn18" name="_ftnref18" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn18;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Long COVID can
occur following a “mild COVID” infection (not requiring hospitalization).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">According to one
research study, more than half of those who contract COVID will experience
post-COVID symptoms, such as fatigue, shortness of breath, chest paid, and sore
joints, up to six months after recovering.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn19" name="_ftnref19" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn19;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[19]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">“[B]ased on
published studies and their own experience treating patients, several medical
specialists said 750,000 to 1.3 million patients likely remain so sick for
extended periods that they can’t return to the workforce full time.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn20" name="_ftnref20" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn20;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[20]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Vaccines and Booster Shots – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bottom Line Recommendations<o:p></o:p></i></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">If you are eligible for the booster shot, it is highly
advisable to obtain same. Being vaccinated <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and
</i>boosted is your best line of defense against severe illness from COVID-19.<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn21" name="_ftnref21" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn21;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[21]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">If you have had COVID, but have not yet been
vaccinated, please talk to your physician about the benefits and risks of
vaccines, as various studies have indicated that the Omicron variant much more
easily evades the antibodies achieved from a prior infection alone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">If you have never had COVID, and if you have also never
been vaccinated, please consult with a physician about the benefits and risks
of vaccines. In general, you remain the most at risk from the Omicron variant,
including the most at risk for severe illness, hospitalization, and death.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Consumer Resources for More Information About COVID-19:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The John Hopkins “</span><a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/headlines/coronavirus-questions-and-answers"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Frequently Asked Questions</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt;">” page is very helpful in answering a very broad range
of questions about COVID-19, its avoidance, symptoms, treatments, vaccinations,
and much more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The New York Times’ </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Interactive COVID Tracker</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> provides global, national and state-by-state data on
the number of cases.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">*<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Dr. John Campbell, a former nurse educator, provides a
</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/Campbellteaching"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">video explanation daily</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> on COVID and developments. While his explanations are
easy-to-understand, be aware that his often-criticisms of health departments’
data releases, and his support for an unproven treatment, have been widely
panned, and be aware that John Campbell is neither a physician nor an
epidemiologist.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Now, excerpts from a few recent research studies …</i></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Omicron is likely to lead to more
infections; many of the infections are likely to be less severe as Omicron less
able to infect</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The following is from a discussion of a preprint study
posted on Dec. 21, 2021.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">“The omicron variant of
SARS-CoV-2 may be less efficient at infiltrating the lungs and spreading from
cell to cell, compared with other versions of the coronavirus, early studies of
human cells in a lab dish suggest.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">This may help explain why
some early data from countries such as South Africa and England suggest the
strain causes less severe disease. But although omicron may not invade lung
cells efficiently, the new study, posted Tuesday (Dec. 21) to the preprint
database bioRxiv, confirmed that the variant dodges most of the antibodies made
by fully vaccinated individuals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">And similar to other
research, the team showed a ‘booster’ dose of the Pfizer vaccine significantly
increased the neutralization power of vaccinated people's antibodies, ‘though
we'd still expect a waning in immunity to occur over time ….’ "<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn22" name="_ftnref22" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn22;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[22]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Less Likelihood of Hospitalization Exists for
Many of Those Who Become Infected with Omicron Variant</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">From a Dec. 23, 2021 article in The Wall Street
Journal summarizing several (pre-print) studies.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">“People infected with the
Omicron variant of coronavirus are between 50% to 70% less likely to be
admitted to the hospital than those who caught earlier strains, according to a
new U.K. study that adds to a growing body of evidence of Omicron’s reduced
severity in populations with high levels of immunity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The analysis from England,
published Thursday by the U.K.’s Health Security Agency, follows studies in
Scotland and South Africa that also pointed to a substantially lower risk of
hospitalization with Omicron than with more established variants, including
Delta.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Scientists are still unsure
how these encouraging findings around hospitalizations will stack up against
Omicron’s much increased transmissibility, and ability to partially evade the
protection of vaccines. The risk, they say, is the variant could still cause a
big wave of hospital admissions simply by infecting many more people.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn23" name="_ftnref23" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn23;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[23]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Antibodies from vaccines, prior infections,
and monoclonal antibodies are <u>not</u> as effective against infection from
the Omicron variant compared to prior variants. However, receipt of a booster
shot leads to much greater effectiveness, and rapid administration of Booster
shots is recommended.</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The following is an excerpt from a study was posted to
a preprint server for health sciences, medRxiv, on December 24, 2021.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">“Researchers in Botswana and
South Africa identified a new and heavily mutated SARS-CoV-2 variant
(B.1.1.529, Omicron) in late November 2021, with 30 amino acid mutations in the
Spike protein that are distinct compared to other variants of concern (VOC)
Alpha, Beta and Delta. Omicron is characterized by fast spreading in previously
vaccinated populations, suggesting Omicron’s ability to evade vaccine-induced
immunity and therapeutic monoclonal antibody therapy. Several recent pre-print
studies have indeed confirmed a substantial reduction in neutralising antibody
activity against Omicron in small-scaled studies including previously infected
individuals, fully vaccinated individuals, recipients of third booster doses of
BNT162b2 [the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine] or mRNA-1273 [the MOderna
vaccine] and individuals with hybrid immunity (infection followed by
vaccination). The common trend from these first laboratory-based assessments is
that the potency to neutralise Omicron is reduced by approximately 40-fold
(20-200-fold depending on the study) compared to the original Wuhan D614G
virus.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn24" name="_ftnref24" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn24;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[24]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The study further noted a
7.2-fold reduction of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine against the Delta
variant, compared to the original virus. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the study noted that three doses of
the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine results in high neutralizing antibodies for
the Wuhan, Delta and Omicron variants. “The observation that a 2-dose schedule
of BNT162b2 is not sufficient to neutralize Omicron warrants for rapid
administration of a booster vaccine dose to counter infection and limit disease
caused by this variant.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The study further noted that vaccine-induced
immunity significantly outperformed naturally-acquired immunity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The <u>risk of myocarditis</u> following
vaccination are small but not insignificant, but overall risks from COVID are
far greater for those who are unvaccinated, in comparison. And COVID can cause
myocarditis, as well.</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The following is an excerpt from study posted to a
preprint server for health sciences, medRxiv, on December 25, 2021, and it
appears to confirm several previous studies finding similar conclusions.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">“Altogether, the rate of
developing myocarditis or myopericarditis within 28 days of any SARS-CoV-2 mRNA
vaccine was 1.7 per 100,000 vaccinated individuals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Among those who had received
the Pfizer vaccine, the researchers noted, the rate of myocarditis or
myopericarditis was 1.4 cases per 100,000 individuals — with 1.5 cases per
100,000 males, which was not significant, and 1.3 per 100,000 females, which
was significant.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Meanwhile, those who had
received Moderna vaccines were significantly more likely to develop myocarditis
or myopericarditis in the 28 days after vaccination, compared with unvaccinated
individuals. Altogether, there was an average of 4.2 cases per 100,000 people.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">When looking at incidence
rates for men and women, the researchers found that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines
were linked to 1.3 and 2 cases per 100,000 among women, and 1.5 and 6.3 cases
per 100,000 among men, respectively. [The article noted the difficulty in
diagnosing myocarditis, however.]</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The team noted, however, that
people who had received either mRNA vaccine had around half the risk of cardiac
arrest or death, compared with unvaccinated individuals at follow-up …</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
researchers stress that although mRNA vaccines are linked to an increased risk
of myocarditis and myopericarditis, vaccines against COVID-19 are still
extremely beneficial when COVID-19 case rates are still high. This is because
the absolute rate of these side effects is still very low …</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
vaccinations are not perfect, but they are working to save lives, a stark
contrast to the risks of infection…</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">People should not be too
concerned about this adverse event. It is rare, and it is most likely mild. The
individual and societal benefits of vaccination still clearly outweigh the
risks. Especially when the alternative is infection, which in itself may cause
myocarditis, severe COVID-19 disease, and long COVID…”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn25" name="_ftnref25" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn25;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[25]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Long COVID: The Virus Can Remain in the Body
for as Long as Eight Months</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">From an article in Forbes citing a study from the
National Institutes of Health.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">“Though it's long been known
to linger in respiratory tracts for weeks after infection, the coronavirus that
causes Covid-19 can quickly spread to the entire body and remain in the heart,
brain and other organs for as long as eight months, according to new research
from U.S. scientists – shedding light on so-called long Covid infections as
experts warn the highly contagious omicron variant could spur a surge in U.S.
hospitalizations.”<a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftn26" name="_ftnref26" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn26;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[26]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <i>Ron Rhoades is an Associate Professor of Finance at Western Kentucky
University, where he serves as Director of its Personal Financial Planning
Program. He is also a financial advisor in ARGI’s Bowling Green office. He can
be reached via </i><a href="mailto:bear@argi.net"><i>bear@argi.net</i></a><i>.</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
IHME COVID-19 Results Briefing (Dec. 22, 2021). “[Our reference scenario
suggests that over the next two months, 60% of the population will likely be
infected with Omicron. Because of a much greater fraction of asymptomatic
infections (likely over 90%) and thus a lower infection detection rate, we
expect diagnosed cases will increase to a peak of 400,000 in the first week of
February. Based on the data from South Africa, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and
Norway, we expect that the infection-hospitalization rate (IHR) for Omicron
compared to Delta will be 90%–96% lower. Despite the lower IHR, the pressure on
hospitals is likely to be similar to last winter, with considerable variation
across states. Likewise, based on the available data, we expect the
infection-fatality rate (IFR) will be 97%–99% lower than for Delta. Huge
numbers of infections and moderate numbers of hospitalizations may still
translate into a peak of daily deaths over 2,000 in early February … While we
believe our reference forecast reflects the available evidence on Omicron, huge
uncertainties remain for key assumptions …The most important uncertainty is how
severe Omicron infection is.”’ <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/27/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests">https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/27/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> IHME
COVID-19 Results Briefing (Dec. 22, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> “New
York sees increase in hospitalised children as Omicron hammers US,” Channel
News Asia (Dec. 27, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Virginia Langmald, “Pediatric hospitalizations continue to rise in the U.S.,
CDC and HHS data show.” CNN (Dec. 27, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/asia-braces-for-omicrons-full-arrival/">https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/asia-braces-for-omicrons-full-arrival/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry">https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/str-u-s-hotel-results-for-week-ending-18-december/">https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/str-u-s-hotel-results-for-week-ending-18-december/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/asia-braces-for-omicrons-full-arrival/">https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/asia-braces-for-omicrons-full-arrival/</a>;
<a href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-to-give-all-adults-third-covid-shot-by-next-march-4408809.html">https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-to-give-all-adults-third-covid-shot-by-next-march-4408809.html</a>;
Japan relies mostly on the mRNA vaccines. <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-japan-continues-to-use-vaccines-not-ivermectin-to-fight-covid-19/">https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-japan-continues-to-use-vaccines-not-ivermectin-to-fight-covid-19/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/asia-braces-for-omicrons-full-arrival/">https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/asia-braces-for-omicrons-full-arrival/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-health-1662719827498fa2b1a4f168c7723688">https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-health-1662719827498fa2b1a4f168c7723688</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn14" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref14" name="_ftn14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/covid-pill-availability-may-depend-on-which-state-you-live-in">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/covid-pill-availability-may-depend-on-which-state-you-live-in</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn15" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref15" name="_ftn15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn16" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref16" name="_ftn16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/covid-pill-availability-may-depend-on-which-state-you-live-in">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/covid-pill-availability-may-depend-on-which-state-you-live-in</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn17" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref17" name="_ftn17" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn17;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/health/pfizer-antiviral-pill-authorized/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/health/pfizer-antiviral-pill-authorized/index.html</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn18" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref18" name="_ftn18" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn18;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Deep
Shulka, “Long COVID: 3 in 10 COVID-19 patients not fully recovered after 1 year,”
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Medical News Today</i> (Dec. 22, 2021).
Another study has lower figures - “The Lancet medical journal says 57% of
hospitalized patients and 26% of non-hospitalized patients show post-Covid
symptoms months after infection.” Lisa Beilfuss, “Where Are the Workers?
Millions Are Sick with ‘Long Covid’,” Barron’s (Dec. 8, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn19" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref19" name="_ftn19" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn19;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[19]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211013114112.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211013114112.htm</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn20" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref20" name="_ftn20" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn20;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[20]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Christopher Rowland, “Long covid is destroying careers, leaving economic
distress in its wake,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Washington
Post</i> (Dec. 9, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn21" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref21" name="_ftn21" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn21;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[21]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Dec. 21, 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn22" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref22" name="_ftn22" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn22;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[22]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.livescience.com/omicron-less-severe-disease-early-evidence">https://www.livescience.com/omicron-less-severe-disease-early-evidence</a>,
citing study posted on Dec. 20, 2021 at <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.473248v1">https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.473248v1</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn23" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref23" name="_ftn23" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn23;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[23]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Jason Douglas, “<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">New U.K. Study
Reinforces Conclusion That Omicron Causes Less Severe Disease,” The Wall Street
Journal (Dec. 23, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn24" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref24" name="_ftn24" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn24;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[24]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268316v1.full.pdf+html">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268316v1.full.pdf+html</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn25" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref25" name="_ftn25" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn25;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[25]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-linked-to-small-heart-inflammation-risk#Data-analysis">https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-linked-to-small-heart-inflammation-risk#Data-analysis</a>,
citing research published at <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068665">https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068665</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn26" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/RonRhoades/Downloads/Summary%20of%20Recent%20Research%20re%20COVID.docx#_ftnref26" name="_ftn26" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn26;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[26]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Jonathan
Ponciano, “Covid Can Linger In Body For Months, Study Finds, As Fauci Sounds
Alarm On 'Extraordinarily Contagious' Omicron Variant,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Forbes</i> (Dec. 26, 2021), located at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/12/26/covid-can-linger-in-body-for-months-study-finds-as-fauci-sounds-alarm-on-extraordinarily-contagious-omicron-variant/?sh=3380d80d2c42">https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/12/26/covid-can-linger-in-body-for-months-study-finds-as-fauci-sounds-alarm-on-extraordinarily-contagious-omicron-variant/?sh=3380d80d2c42</a>,
citing research article published at <a href="https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1139035/v1_covered.pdf?c=1640020576">https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1139035/v1_covered.pdf?c=1640020576</a></span>
<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-64151523274536894072021-12-19T17:50:00.007-05:002021-12-19T18:27:17.553-05:00Reflections on the Destructive Tornado Hitting Bowling Green<p>Having lived in Bowling Green, Kentucky, for just six years,
I have only experienced a handful of tornado warnings, none of which led to
actual damage, injuries, or deaths near us. The early morning hours of Saturday,
Dec. 11th led to an experience which was altogether different.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shortly before 1:00 a.m., our phones buzzed loudly with the
warning from the National Weather Service. My wife and I awoke our other family
members. Within moments a loud tornado siren could be heard, echoing through
the darkness.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Less than a minute went by. The winds seemed to pick up, to
the level of a low roar. The four of us huddled in the small area underneath
our stairs. As the storm was moving across our area at highway speeds, some
five minutes later the news channels reported that we were in the clear as the
tornados moved far past us and northeastward.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><b>The Devastation is
Revealed</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Later that Saturday morning, as the sun arose, the world
still seemed dark. The terror of the night had morphed to a cold day revealing
countless personal tragedies. The fear just a few hours before was displaced by
sadness, despair and hopelessness.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Incredulity was felt not just throughout Bowling Green, but also
in Mayfield, Kentucky and in dozens of small communities and hamlets in western
Kentucky and several surrounding states.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">News reports cautioned us to stay away from the affected
areas, to permit rescue activities. As the short daylight hours progressed, the
full scale of the disaster became apparent. The tornado had driven a long path
through Bowling Green. Over five hundred homes and one hundred businesses were
destroyed. Sixteen individuals from Bowling Green lost their lives, most from
just two families. Over a hundred persons were injured physically, and the
emotional toll was even greater.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><b>The Search and Recovery Efforts</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In our close-knit community, everyone personally knew
someone who was affected. We began our search for the dead and injured, and our
outreach to those who lost their homes or businesses.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Those who suffered less, or not at all, emerged into the day
to provide immediate support to those who had lost so much more. A small army
of volunteers bearing chain saws emerged to clear roads to enable rescue and
utility vehicles to access devastated neighborhoods.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First responders and volunteers were joined by members of
the <a href="https://ky.ng.mil/">Kentucky National Guard</a>, along with members
of <a href="https://teamrubiconusa.org/">Team Rubicon Disaster Response</a>.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Construction companies provided, at no cost, their equipment
to assist with search and rescue and the necessary removal of debris. Skilled
workers, many of whom had seen wind damage at their own homes, emerged
throughout the cold morning to assist in the search and recovery efforts, often
lifting entire sides of buildings up with heavy equipment to empower the search
for any persons who may have been underneath.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Others assisted families to recover personal items and
furnishings that could be salvaged from hundreds of homes. Citizens joined
together to assist business owners in recovering and storing what inventory and
equipment could be salvaged from the wreckage. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><b>Initially Sheltering and Providing for the Displaced</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hundreds of additional volunteers converged on the affected
areas, and in the shelters set up to house the many families that had been
displaced. Each call for needed supplies was met with an overwhelming response.
Clothes, food, and other necessaries were received, sorted, and handed out – a time-consuming
process that continues to this day.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Food trucks and nearby restaurants opened to feed the army
of first responders and volunteers thousands of free meals. Tents emerged in
the heavily damaged areas to provide a place to hand out free drinking water
and sandwiches, as well as a place to listen and console. Other volunteers
cooked and furnished meals at the nearby schools that were opened as shelters
to assist those hundreds displaced. Cots, inflatable beds, and blankets were
donated to afford those who sheltered greater comfort.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Still more volunteers distributed meals to those whose homes
had suffered damage, or who had lost water or power. And many families opened
their own homes to those families who, in what seemed like the blink of an eye,
had lost their own.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Community leaders organized the volunteers and recovery
efforts. Western Kentucky University’s Center for Research and Development
provided a central location from which to coordinate the army of volunteers,
and the University provided housing to first responders. Churches both locally
and dozens of miles away collected and distributed food and other donated
supplies.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><b>Days Later, the Search Ends. The Recovery Efforts
Continue.</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The search for survivors ended six days after the storm. The
last of the missing, a 13-year-old girl, was sadly found lying dead a few hundred yards from her home, in an
adjoining neighborhood.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Into our welcoming community of Bowling Green, refugees from
many places in the world – such as Mexico, Bosnia, Myanmar, Iraq, Ghana, Zaire,
Kenya, El Salvador, and Afghanistan – have been accepted with kindness and
compassion. As the recovery efforts continued, no one cared about another’s
political affiliation, religion, race, nationality, or creed. Those most
affected were provided with an arm to lean on, hugs, and helping hands.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Anguish began to be replaced by hope.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">All those who have personally witnessed, or participated in,
this outpouring have been rewarded. By a restoration of faith in mankind.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><b>We Tour the Damage.</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Today, for the first time, more than eight days after the
tornado hit, I ventured out with my wife to survey some of the damage. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We saw many homes stripped to their foundations. So many
other homes were simply damaged beyond repair. Local businesses, some of which
were passed down from generation to generation, simply stand no more.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A piece of wood pierced completely through the side of one car.
The roofs of many houses were penetrated by trees and other debris. Small
groves of trees that once stood to veil neighborhoods were gone, revealing the
wholesale destruction of residences beyond.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After more than an hour of driving through affected areas,
we could not go on – despite the fact that we had likely only surveyed less
than one-quarter of the damaged areas. We drove home in silence.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The clearing of debris continues, as Bowling Green and many
other communities seek to repair and reopen its streets and other
infrastructure. Power and internet service are still being restored, with
progress made each day.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><b>Feelings of Gratitude,
Yet Scars Remain</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We are grateful for the hard work of the utility crews,
public servants, and the many volunteers. In the weeks and months ahead, we
will seek to rebuild. Our collective community spirit, and the ongoing support
from both near and far, provides fuel the hard work ahead.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Yet, no tragedy such as this comes without leaving lasting
wounds. Not just physical marks, but also the emotional scars that may reach
into the very depths of the soul.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Such scars can be ameliorated with hope, with love, and with
sustained care. In the process of adhering to the wounds our fellow citizens
suffered, we may yet find a new awareness and appreciation for the heroes
around us in our everyday lives. We praise those who carry on in the face of their
tremendous personal adversity.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The tornado hit Bowling Green very hard, and its memory will
follow us in the decades to come. But also enduring, through the passage of
time, will be the memory of the tremendous outpouring of love and assistance
from all those who have aided our community in its recovery.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><b>The Need Continues</b><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><b><br /></b></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is less than a week now, before Christmas Day. It is hard
to even hear, much less sing along, to the carols we hear on the radio. For we
know that the need remains tremendous, as Bowling Green and other communities
in western Kentucky continue to bury the dead, care for the wounded, clear the
debris, and begin to rebuild.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you desire to help, even from afar, here are just a few
of the many ways:<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Governor Beshear has established the <a href="https://secure.kentucky.gov/formservices/Finance/WKYRelief"><b>Team
Western Kentucky Tornado Relief Fund</b></a> to assist those impacted by the
tornados.</p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->First Lady Britainy Beshear is seeking toys,
books and gift cards for the children affected by the tornados through her <a href="https://governor.ky.gov/toydrive"><b>Western Kentucky Toy Drive</b></a>.</p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><a href="https://www.wku.edu/sustainability/food_pantry.php"><b>Western Kentucky
University’s Food Pantry</b></a> continues to provide meals throughout the
holidays (including Christmas Day) to those in need.</p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To assist Western Kentucky University students
who have been adversely affected, monetary donations can be made to WKU’s
Emergency Student Assistance through the <a href="https://www.wku.edu/emergency/tornado-response/waystogive.php"><b>Opportunity
Fund website</b></a>.</p></blockquote></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: left;"><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">#BGStrong</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: left;"><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><br /></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in;"><i>Dr. Ron Rhoades is an Associate
Professor of Finance at Western Kentucky University, where he serves as
Director of its Personal Financial Planning Program. He is also a financial
advisor in ARGI’s Bowling Green office. He can be reached via </i><a href="mailto:bear@argi.net"><i>bear@argi.net</i></a><i>. <o:p></o:p></i></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0Bowling Green, KY, USA36.9685219 -86.48080438.6582880638211535 -121.6370543 65.278755736178852 -51.3245543tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-20699231718328852602021-10-27T10:59:00.027-04:002021-10-27T11:10:51.297-04:00Asset Class Valuations and Expected Returns: U.S. Stocks (Oct. 21, 2021)<p> </p><style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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</style><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 4pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 34.2400016784668px;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 34.2400016784668px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilMzOsLxIpL3DR_Nl6LcoqS7N8fTXYV8pvLC2ie-R5EqQWZ2cK5ZC5g7f4ZSnbdf6fRVcuwMm6kAV0EzPPnsRH4Xs7uu2W2eW3a9ctYpnIF4LHWCwuL-BXms8xisPO1QZYRHUMGXNNmoHo/s479/RON.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="479" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilMzOsLxIpL3DR_Nl6LcoqS7N8fTXYV8pvLC2ie-R5EqQWZ2cK5ZC5g7f4ZSnbdf6fRVcuwMm6kAV0EzPPnsRH4Xs7uu2W2eW3a9ctYpnIF4LHWCwuL-BXms8xisPO1QZYRHUMGXNNmoHo/s320/RON.png" width="320" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 34.2400016784668px;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 34.2400016784668px;">Da Bear’s Perspectives</span></b></div><o:p></o:p></span></b><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">Vol. 1, No. 4 - October 21, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">By Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">Associate Professor of Finance, Gordon Ford College of Business<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">Director, Personal Financial Planning Program, Western Kentucky University<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">Financial Advisor and Content Specialist, ARGI Investment Services, LLC<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 4pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">To contact Ron, please email: </span><a href="mailto:bear@argi.net"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">bear@argi.net</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 11.413333892822266px;"> </span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 11.413333892822266px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 22.82666778564453px;">October 2021 Update on Asset Class Valuations<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">In this edition, I focus on questions sometimes raised by investors whom I have met with recently – is the U.S. stock market overvalued? If so, what should I do?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">As with most other editions of <i>Da Bear’s Perspectives</i>, this is a longer read, with more detailed discussion of the issues presented. For those who dare to peruse the following, enjoy!<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px; margin-top: 0in;"><a name="_Toc77160602">Executive Summary</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Despite some recent volatility, stock indexes for most of the world remain near their highs.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">In particular, U.S. growth stocks are at high valuation levels, relative to their assumed mean level of valuations. U.S. value stocks are more reasonably valued, as are value stocks in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Reversion to the mean of asset class valuations occurs quite often. Yet, absent an economic shock, reversion to the mean can take many, many year – possibly 10, 15, or even more than 20 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Due to reversion to the mean (or partial mean reversion), lower expected returns for several asset classes are anticipated over the next 10-15 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">U.S. equity strategies employing multiple factors, such as the value, size, quality, and/or profitability factors may fare better over the next 10-15 years, compared to a “total stock market” approach.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><br /></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">The U.S. Stock Market (Overall) Is Substantially Overvalued<o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;">According to my own analysis of asset class valuations,<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn1" name="_ednref1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[1]</span></span></span></a> as of the mid-October 2021, <b>U.S. large cap growth stocks are particularly overvalued.</b><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">“Growth stocks” are high-priced stocks, relative to recent or projected earnings, revenues, book value, cash flow (or free cash flow), or dividends. “Value stocks” are “low-priced stocks” relative to the same measures. Different methodologies exist for classifying stocks as either “growth” or “value” (or something in between, often denoted as “core” stocks).<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">“Large cap stocks” are generally stocks of companies with a total stock market valuation (<i>i.e</i>., total value of all of the company’s outstanding stock) of $10 billion or greater.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;">The overvaluation of U.S. large cap growth stocks has, in turn, has influenced <b>the entire U.S. large cap stock universe to be overvalued</b>.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;">The overvaluation of U.S. stocks can be discerned from valuation ratios, of which there are many types.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;">This chart of the Shiller CAPE10 [also known as the P/E 10 ratio, or as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio], is a valuation ratio that averages the past 10 years of earnings of the companies found within any country, or within any equity asset class. It most commonly is referred to as “CAPE10” as it is applied to the Standard & Poors’ 500 Index, which index includes 500 of the largest U.S. companies on a cap-weighted basis. By using an approach that levels earnings over 10 years (with inflation adjustments for prior years’ earnings), the Shiller CAPE10 avoids large swings in valuations that can occur when corporate earnings rapidly rise and fall.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;">The Shiller CAPE10 illustrates the present over-valuation of U.S. stocks, relative to the mean, with the ratio at <b>38.63</b> as of October 21, 2021 (slightly up from the 38.52 ratio seen on July 13, 2021).</p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZAsHnS7pTKLlpQON-FkejAcWJ1MqWhSHdrd09GPXELx1kzeJ20N2cls1hZANJSbB7Cep2XsgU9-r4hnvRMHtsCHGLsDCd2P4eu2Mm0DUBEmf1n5LLx_KY-Xi8Wme-KSx2INAjK0n3Y8GB/s974/CAPE10.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="974" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZAsHnS7pTKLlpQON-FkejAcWJ1MqWhSHdrd09GPXELx1kzeJ20N2cls1hZANJSbB7Cep2XsgU9-r4hnvRMHtsCHGLsDCd2P4eu2Mm0DUBEmf1n5LLx_KY-Xi8Wme-KSx2INAjK0n3Y8GB/w514-h223/CAPE10.png" width="514" /></a></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0in;"> <span style="font-size: 9pt; text-align: center;">Source:</span><span style="text-align: center;"> </span><a href="https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; text-align: center;"> Retrieved Oct. 21, 2021</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">The historic mean of the Shiller CAPE10 valuation ratio (since 1870) is <b>16.88</b>.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn2" name="_ednref2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[2]</span></span></span></a> However, due to changes in accounting practices and standards that occurred around 2001 (relating to how goodwill is written off), a reduction of dividend payouts, and other factors,<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn3" name="_ednref3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[3]</span></span></span></a> some financial academics argue that a more reasonable “mean” might be around 19-26.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn4" name="_ednref4" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[4]</span></span></span></a> Reflective of the general long-term trend toward higher equity values (using price relative to earnings), from January 2000 through October 2021, using monthly data, the arithmetic mean of the Shiller CAPE10 was 26.73, while the median was 26.15.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn5" name="_ednref5" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[5]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Additionally, many might argue that, given the extremely high monetary and fiscal stimulus seen since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, substantially higher valuations are justified.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn6" name="_ednref6" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[6]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">The maximum value of the Shiller CAPE 10 valuation ratio was <b>44.19</b>, which occurred in December 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn7" name="_ednref7" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[7]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">The Shiller CAPE ratio is a good indicator for long-term forecasts,<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn8" name="_ednref8" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[8]</span></span></span></a> and may be one of the most statistically significant predictors of long-term U.S. stock market returns.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn9" name="_ednref9" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[9]</span></span></span></a> A chart from Lyn Alden, looking at similar valuation ratios done for both U.S. and foreign markets, shows a strong negative correlation between high valuations of various stock indexes and future returns, when looking at the future returns over a 15-year period: <span style="font-size: 9pt; text-align: center;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCv_GqhWA4qwzS_yoVMyLtmqpk4tdnIdvnfSWdFUliOG2Aj8l5G50YrzHWIzRDL5nUAeDD7Frl8hsXSg2tiogALwpWs4KbkTuc42jCa697Tzgy1dzXXDWNqSfJY5pcYYVv29w0aYM4aDO_/s962/Cape10+vs+future+returns.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="962" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCv_GqhWA4qwzS_yoVMyLtmqpk4tdnIdvnfSWdFUliOG2Aj8l5G50YrzHWIzRDL5nUAeDD7Frl8hsXSg2tiogALwpWs4KbkTuc42jCa697Tzgy1dzXXDWNqSfJY5pcYYVv29w0aYM4aDO_/w490-h277/Cape10+vs+future+returns.png" width="490" /></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/" style="font-size: 9pt; text-align: center;">https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/</a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-left: 0.5in; margin-right: 0.5in;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 12.84000015258789px;">Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 12.84000015258789px;"> The data shown in the chart referenced above is derived from multiple sources and is assumed to be accurate. Returns shown are “real returns” (inflation-adjusted), but such returns do not reflect the costs incurred by investing in specific mutual funds or ETFs, or directly into equities. The returns shown do not reflect ARGI’s (or any other investment adviser’s) investment advisory fees. Much of the data above is derived from country indexes; you cannot invest directly in an index.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">However, there exists a wide dispersion of possible returns, even after the Shiller CAPE 10 ratio has reached very high heights.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJEM3S4oH30tTHFillDnPohitU9O5OPyNQ9RJZBw8pwkgy1mLZcKDaT2Wt3hquwQ_XVTzus-FgasI7WeYFkbNosKMnlut0ESOFBAYCCor7GXYiIu59DvBnPRsN9oJWlUwkO0ol5v5lsXbh/s974/DISPERSION.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="974" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJEM3S4oH30tTHFillDnPohitU9O5OPyNQ9RJZBw8pwkgy1mLZcKDaT2Wt3hquwQ_XVTzus-FgasI7WeYFkbNosKMnlut0ESOFBAYCCor7GXYiIu59DvBnPRsN9oJWlUwkO0ol5v5lsXbh/w586-h238/DISPERSION.png" width="586" /></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Source: Research Affiliates</span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-right: 0.5in; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 12.84000015258789px;"><br /></span></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">Reasons Why U.S. Stock Prices Are High<o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">At times the market can appear “manic-depressive,” with stock market values being depressed relative to their assumed normal levels (“norms”). At other times the stock market can appear to be euphoric, with prices quite high relative to their norms. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">In the present case, it appears that a major reason behind this extraordinary move of U.S. stocks is largely due <i>to irrational exuberance</i>.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn10" name="_ednref10" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[10]</span></span></span></a> In this regard, stock valuations (both individually, and as broader asset classes) can be substantially driven by investor psychology. Investors tend to act with herd behavior, and as investors pour into equities other investors often follow them. In addition, other behavioral biases, such as “fear of missing out,” are often involved in changes to investor sentiment. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Another reason for high stock valuation levels is the potential role of low interest rates. In traditional financial theory, interest rates are a key component of valuation models. When interest rates fall, the <i>discount rate</i> used in these models decreases (assuming all other inputs into discount rates stay the same). This causes the price of the equity asset to appreciate, as future earnings of companies have greater value. This is particularly true with growth stocks, which often have higher earnings projected farther into the future. As the discount rate falls, the price of the equity asset should appreciate, assuming all other model inputs stay constant. So, lower interest rates are often used to justify higher equity prices.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Additionally, low yields on fixed income investors drive some investors to equities. Many investors conclude that there is no alternative to investing in equities if they desire to preserve the real value (i.e., inflation-adjusted value) of their wealth, or to outpace inflation over the long term.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Another argument in support of high prices is that the equity markets are simply pricing in a future economic recovery, as more and more Americans return to work following the recent COVID-19 pandemic. (Unfortunately, due to the Delta variant and other reasons, COVID-19 continues in the U.S. in a more limited way, and COVID-19 is still causing serious economic problems in many countries, especially those in which vaccination rates are low.)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Additionally, the monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve (via low short-term interest rates, and quantitative easing, primarily) and the likely fiscal stimulus (arising from a multi-trillion spending package likely to be enacted later in 2021 through the reconciliation process, to which the U.S. Senate filibuster does not apply), may spur U.S. economic growth forward. Indeed, in late June 2021 the International Monetary Fund raised its 2021 U.S. growth projection sharply to 7.0%, due to a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and an assumption that much of President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans will be enacted.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn11" name="_ednref11" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[11]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">The International Monetary Fund foresees strongeconomic growth, around the world, through 2022.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px;">Still another reason, related to investor psychology, is the rise of the social media hype of certain “meme” stocks, such as Gamestop, AMC, Blackberry, Bed Bath & Beyond, Clover, SoFi, and others. Individual investors on Reddit and Twitter tout these and other stocks, often resulting in rapid growth of each company’s stock price. A disconnect occurs between the “intrinsic value” of a stock, and its stock price, as speculation is fueled. Panic selling of these stocks can often occur, even at the slightest adverse news or other headwind.<b style="font-size: 11pt;"><span face=""Calibri Light", sans-serif" style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 22.82666778564453px;"> </span></b></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">The Phenomenon of Reversion to the Mean<o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">There is always a tendency to believe “this time is different.” Yet, reversion to the mean of asset class valuations, over the long term (15-20 years), is likely to occur.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">The reversion to the mean principle suggests asset prices and historical returns eventually will revert to their long-run mean level. The academic evidence for mean reversion, over long periods of time, is fairly strong. For example, a recent academic paper reviewed a large sample of stock indexes in seventeen countries, covering a time span of more than a century, and analyzed in detail the dynamics of the mean-reversion process for the 1900-2008 period. They found that the speed at which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high economic uncertainty caused by major events such as the Great Depression, World War II and the Cold War. In essence, large price movements in relatively short periods of time - when great economic uncertainty exists - may account for a high mean reversion speed. However, at other times it can take many years, and even decades, for mean reversion to occur.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn12" name="_ednref12" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[12]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Similarly, Campbell and Shiller demonstrated that high valuation multiples such as aggregate book-to-market (BtM) or earnings-to-price (E/P) ratios, both of which signal low current prices, have been found to forecast high subsequent stock market returns.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn13" name="_ednref13" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[13]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">However, mean reversion is not universally accepted in academic circles.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn14" name="_ednref14" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[14]</span></span></span></a> Stock price movements occur for a variety of reasons, and it can be difficult to isolate mean reversion as the cause of movements in valuations of asset classes when so many variables exist. Some academics continue to favor the “random walk” theory of asset prices, arguing that mean reversions are not predictable.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn15" name="_ednref15" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[15]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Even if mean reversion is accepted (as it is in many financial circles), mean reversion does not always occur to the historical mean, as a new mean may be set by ongoing developments in the equity markets. As a result, predicting the effect on mean reversion of over-valuation or under-valuation might be tempered by assuming that mean reversion occurs only partially. As stated by Robert Arnott of Research Affiliates: “Valuation multiples, yields, and spreads have shown a powerful tendency to eventually mean-revert toward historical norms. However, since mean reversion is somewhat unpredictable, our models only assume partial mean reversion – spread out over the decade to come – in setting our return forecasts.”<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn16" name="_ednref16" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[16]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Mean reversion – over the very long term – for broad asset classes, is highly likely to occur. However, I do not mean to suggest that high stock values today will cause declines in stocks in the <i>near term</i> (although it is possible). There is very little evidence to suggest that mean reversion for broad asset classes consistently occurs over short time periods, such as over 1 year, 3 years, or even 5 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">As seen in the next section, high valuation ratio levels imply future long-term (15-20 year) lower return for certain stock asset classes.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><br /></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px; margin-top: 0in;">Varied Opinions on the<i> Expected Returns </i>of Various Asset Classes.<o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">There are many opinions about the future returns of stock asset classes.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Some estimates of <i>10-year expected average annualized returns</i> for various asset classes are undertaken by several investment firms. The following summarizes their data, for select asset classes, for a U.S.-based investor. The Research Affiliates estimate also gives an indication of the wide dispersion that exists, as to possible future <i>average annualized returns</i> over the next 10 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"> U.S. large company stocks: 1.5% (RA) (with 5% probability of returns of 5.6% or greater,<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 3in;">and 5% probability of returns of -2.5% or less)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 2.4% to 4.2% (VG)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 5.6% (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 6.4% (BR)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"> U.S. small company stocks: 3.0% (RA) ) (with 5% probability of returns of 8.5% or greater,<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 3in;">and 5% probability of returns of -2.5% or less)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 2.1% to 4.1% (VG)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 6.1% (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 7.2% (BR)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"> Foreign developed markets: 6.4% (RA) (with 5% probability of returns of 11.0% or greater,<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 3in;">and 5% probability of returns of 1.9% or less) (EAFE)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 5.7% (MSCI Europe) (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 4.5% (MSCI Pacific) (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 8.2% (Europe) (BR)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"> Foreign emerging markets: 8.3% (RA) (with 5% probability of returns of 13.9% or greater,<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 3in;">and 5% probability of returns of 2.8% or less)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 5.8% (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"> Commodities: 1.4% (RA) (with 5% probability of returns of 5.7% or greater,<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 3in;">and 5% probability of returns of -2.9% or less)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"> 4.3% (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">[Projections above include data from Research Affiliates (RA) as of September 30, 2021 as derived from its Asset Allocation Interactive online resources, and from Vanguard (VG) as of June 30, 2021, and from State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) from its Long Term Asset Class forecasts as of September 30, 2021, and from the Blackrock (BR) Capital Market Assumptions - Asset Return Expectations and Uncertainty (as of June 30, 2021).]<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><i><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.800000190734863px;">[Please be aware that the information presented on the prior page represents local (U.S. dollar) return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any ARGI fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward-looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of the sources set forth below and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and neither ARGI nor Ron A. Rhoades nor any of the firms listed below assume any duty to update forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may (and likely will) differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. Asset return projections gross of fees relating to investments, or which might be charged by ARGI or another investment advisor.]<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Note that while the foregoing projections assume reversion to the mean occurs over a 10-year period, I would again caution that mean reversion, in the opinion of some academics, has a greater probability of occurring over a 15-year to 20-year period.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Not all analysts project positive returns for stocks. For example, GMO LLC projects, over the next 7 years, -6.2% annual (nominal) returns for U.S. large company stocks, -8.2% annual returns for U.S. small company stocks, and -0.9% annual for international large company stocks. GMO does project that Emerging Markets Value stocks will possess an inflation-adjusted annual return of +2.4% over the next 7 years.) [<i>Source</i>: GMO 7-year asset class real return forecast, as of August 31, 2021.]<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">My own analysis (using price-book valuation ratios for the Russell indexes for U.S. stock asset classes over the past 40+ years, and Fama-French research indices for long-term returns), I further break down U.S. asset classes by value and growth stocks. Doing so shows a wider discrepancy in <i>expected average annual returns</i> over the next <b><u>15</u></b><i> years</i>, as between growth stocks and value stocks, and illustrates that we are likely in a “growth stock” bubble:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"> U.S. large company growth stocks: <b><span style="color: red;">-2.9%</span></b><span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"> U.S. large company stocks: 3.6%<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"> U.S. large company value stocks: 5.6%<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"> U.S. small company growth stocks: <b>1.7%</b><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"> U.S. small company stocks: 8.7%<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"> U.S. small cap value stocks: 9.5%<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><i><span style="font-size: 9pt;">[Projections reflect market prices as of the close of trading on October 14, 2021 and utilize historical and current price-book ratio data for indexes and index ETFs from the Frank Russell Corporation, with adjustments to future returns undertaken by Ron A. Rhoades to reflect projected rates of inflation, and projections of U.S. economic growth, over the long term. Ninety percent of the reversion to the mean (as measured over the past 20 years) of asset class valuations is assumed, rather than full mean reversion. These projections are undertaken by Ron A. Rhoades, individually, and are not undertaken by ARGI’s investment department nor its investment committee. Forward-looking projections are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may (and likely will) differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking projections set forth above, as there exists numerous factors at play and the dispersion of actual returns can be quite wide; only the median projection is shown. There exists academic research that reliance on price-book ratios may not be the best valuation metric to use as a forecaster of returns, given the rise of goodwill and other factors affecting book values, and changes in the industry composition of indexes, over time.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn17" name="_ednref17" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 12.84000015258789px;">[17]</span></b></span></span></a>]<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><b><span face=""Calibri Light", sans-serif" style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 22.82666778564453px;"> </span></b></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">Conclusion: Yes, A Growth Stock Bubble Exists<o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">As of the date of this writing, U.S. stocks are likely in a “<b>growth stock bubble</b>,” similar to the prior bubble in growth stocks (i.e., high-priced stocks, relative to book value, or sales, or earnings) seen in 1999-2000. The driving factors behind these high valuation levels include speculation by individual investors and “euphoria” leading to chasing returns (as occurred 22 years ago).<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">However, in other respects the market environment is somewhat different than that seen in the “dot.com” era. Today’s “growth stocks” don’t just consist of many revenue-less technology stocks, but instead are led by large companies with more diverse revenue streams. Future earnings are of these larger, more established growth stocks are often projected quite high – and such future earnings are discounted less due to the relatively low interest rates existing today.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Please realize that none of these future asset class projections are “certain.” Forecasting investment returns, even over the long term, deals with probabilities, rather than certainty. As I instruct my students, as to the price factor:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in; margin-right: 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><i>“A highly diversified basket of value stocks (i.e., those stocks with low p/e, p/b, p/s, or p/cf ratios, or some combination of the foregoing) possesses an approximately 80% or greater probability of outperforming a diversified basket of growth stocks over any given 20-year period of time.”<o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">I do not mean to imply that, in the event of a shock to either the financial system or to the economy as a whole, value stocks would have positive returns during such a period of time. Indeed, in the most significant market downturns in U.S. history (<i>e.g</i>., the start of the Great Depression, as well as the 2007-9 Great Recession), value stocks fell further than growth stocks. Simply put, some of the characteristics that classify stocks as “growth” also tend to promote the ability of those growth stock companies to better endure substantial economic declines.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Ever since early 2009, global equities have risen fairly steadily, with only moderate declines occurring (and the more substantial, but short, decline seen in Feb/March of 2020). But we must remember that the stock market does not always go up, even over 5-year and 10-year periods of time. In fact, there can exist substantial periods of time when the overall U.S. stock market underperforms the rate of inflation or just barely outperforms inflation.<a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_edn18" name="_ednref18" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">[18]</span></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><b><span face=""Calibri Light", sans-serif" style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 22.82666778564453px;"> </span></b></p><h1 style="line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">What to do now?<o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">A long-term investor will likely be well-served by substantial tilts away from growth stocks, and toward U.S. mid-cap/small cap value stocks, foreign developed markets mid-cap/small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets value stocks, over the next 10-15 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">A multi-factor strategy, such as those incorporating factors such as the price (value) factor, size (small cap), quality, and profitability, possesses a high probability of outperformance, relative to U.S. equities overall, over the next 10-15 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">Nearly three years ago I read where a well-known, large investment firm described the market environment as the most difficult one they had ever seen. Yet, since then, the equity markets – like poor Icarus of Greek mythology – have ventured even closer to the sun.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">This does not mean that investing in stocks should be abandoned, especially since no other major asset classes appear to be undervalued at present. However, an advisor’s discussion of long-term changes to a client’s strategic asset allocation, and an advisor’s effort to re-set client expectations of future equity returns, may prove to be worthwhile.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><i>Until the next time …<o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><i>Very truly yours,<o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: "Script MT Bold"; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 25.68000030517578px;">Ron (Da Bear)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;">Email: <a href="mailto:bear@argi.net">bear@argi.net</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.693333625793457px;"><br /></p><div><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /><div id="edn1"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref1" name="_edn1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[1]</span></span></span></a> Using data I have accumulated on price-book ratios, it appears that, relative to mean and median levels, overvaluations exist for U.S. large company growth, balanced, and value strategies, and for U.S. small company growth, using Russell indexes for p/b ratios, and Fama/French data for historic returns. See later discussion in this article, for mean projections of returns.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn2"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref2" name="_edn2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[2]</span></span></span></a> Per Robert Shiller website, and from <a href="https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe">https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe</a>. Data retrieved 10/21/2021.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn3"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref3" name="_edn3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[3]</span></span></span></a> <i>See, e.g</i>., Rob Arnott, Vitali Kalesnik, and Jim Masturzo, “CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong,” Research Affliliates, January 2018.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn4"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref4" name="_edn4" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[4]</span></span></span></a> <i>See, e.g.</i>, Larry Swedroe, “Swedroe: This Metric in Dire Need of Context,” <a href="http://www.etf.com/">www.etf.com</a> (July 14, 2017)<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn5"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref5" name="_edn5" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[5]</span></span></span></a> Using data from <a href="https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe">https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe</a>; data retrieved 10/21/2021.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn6"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref6" name="_edn6" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[6]</span></span></span></a> <i>See, e.g., </i>Lechner, Gerhard and Lechner, Gerhard. Does the Shiller CAPE Predict a Crash of the S&P 500? (March 17, 2021), in which the author concludes: “The forecast of the author is that the overvaluation will accelerate and exceed the previous peak of December 1999, because the monetary expansion will continue in 2021. The author believes it is likely that the new peak will be reached as early as 2022. After that, the risk of a stock crash increases sharply. Maybe, an increase in inflation and rising interest rates will cause a sudden drop.”<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn7"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref7" name="_edn7" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[7]</span></span></span></a> <i>Supra </i>n.1.<i><o:p></o:p></i></p></div><div id="edn8"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref8" name="_edn8" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[8]</span></span></span></a> Keimling, N. (2015). Predicting Stock Market Returns Using the Shiller CAPE — An Improvement Towards Traditional Value Indicators? SSRN Working Paper, 1-39.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn9"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref9" name="_edn9" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[9]</span></span></span></a> Jivraj, Farouk and Shiller, Robert J., The Many Colours of CAPE (October 13, 2017). Yale ICF Working Paper No. 2018-22<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn10"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref10" name="_edn10" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[10]</span></span></span></a> Shiller, R. J. (2015). Irrational exuberance. Princeton: University Press<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn11"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref11" name="_edn11" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[11]</span></span></span></a> David Lawder, “IMF raises U.S. 2021 growth forecast to 7%, assumes Biden spending plans pass,” Reuters (July 1, 2021).<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn12"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref12" name="_edn12" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[12]</span></span></span></a> Spierdijk, Laura and Bikker, Jacob Antoon and van den Hoek, Pieter. Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century (April 1, 2010). De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 247<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn13"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref13" name="_edn13" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[13]</span></span></span></a> Campbell, John Y., and Robert J. Shiller. 1988. “Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends.” Journal of Finance, vol. 43, no. 3 (July):661–676<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn14"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref14" name="_edn14" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[14]</span></span></span></a> <i>See, e.g.,</i> Ronald Balvewrs, Yangru Wu, and Erik Gilliland. Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies, The Journal of Finance, Vol. LV, No. 2 (April 2000), stating: “For U.S. stock prices, evidence of mean reversion over long horizons is mixed, possibly due to lack of a reliable long time series.”<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn15"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref15" name="_edn15" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[15]</span></span></span></a> <i>See, e.g</i>., Yang, Xinye and Yang, Xinye, Economic Theory Foundations for the Long-Term Investment (March 18, 2021), stating: “Applying the Random Walk Theory to finance and stocks suggest that stock prices change normally, making it impossible to predict stock prices. The random walk theory corresponds to the belief that markets are efficient and that it is not possible to beat or predict the market because stock prices reflect all available information and the occurrence of new information is seemingly random, as well, in the short run. However, according to Burton Malkiel, the stock market does not conform perfectly to the mathematician's idea of the complete independence of the stock prices concerning past performances (Malkiel, 2003).”<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn16"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref16" name="_edn16" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[16]</span></span></span></a> Rob Arnott, Jim Masturzo, “All Asset All Access: Long-Term Forecasts Help Identify Compelling Investments Today,” PIMCO Insights (Feb. 25, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn17"><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref17" name="_edn17" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[17]</span></span></span></a> <i>See, e.g</i>., Choi, Ki-Soon and So, Eric C. and Wang, Charles C. Y., Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns (August 26, 2021). <o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="edn18"><p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="applewebdata://1C9B297C-A608-4143-8F82-758688811367#_ednref18" name="_edn18" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.266666412353516px;">[18]</span></span></span></a> Comparing an index for the overall U.S. equity markets (as measured by the CRSP 1-10 Index, with data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices) to an index for consumer inflation (CPI-U, published by U.S. Commerce Department):<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->The average annualized return for the U.S. equity markets was 10.09% for 1926-2000.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->The average annualized rate of inflation was 2.86% for 1926-2000.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->The worst nominal performance for the CRSP 1-10 Index was a -0.28% average annualized return over a 15-year period, which commenced in September 1929.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->The worst nominal performance for CRSP 1-10 Index was a 1.96% average annualized return over a 20-year period, which also commenced in September 1929.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->However, after adjusting for inflation, the worst real average annualized return for the CRSP 1-10 Index, over a 20-year period, was a <i>cumulative</i> 18% - still positive, but just barely.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-10793049978437632232021-08-23T14:27:00.013-04:002021-09-09T14:55:06.215-04:00Even Vaccinated, I Got COVID. And It Isn't Pretty, Folks.<p>I have been quite careful about COVID-19. I strictly quarantined for over a year, teaching my college classes from home, via Zoom. I was so pleased to be able to travel and visit my financial planning clients in June, as the number of COVID-19 cases waned. And I was so looking forward to being back in the classroom in late August.</p><p>Then the Delta variant happened.</p><p>I was not too worried. I had been fully vaccinated back in March. In late July I did an antibody test, which showed I had a level of antibodies that placed me in the top 40% or so of all those who had received vaccinations.</p><p><b>(Day: -4) Tuesday, August 17th</b>, was my first day back on campus. I attended an outdoor student social event (masked only part of the time). And I had lunch with a faculty colleague (masked only while driving to/from the restaurant; not masked when sitting across from each other).</p><p><b>(Day: -3) Wednesday, August 18th</b>: I found that my colleague had tested positive for COVID. Later I learned that some students at the outdoor social tested positive for COVID.</p><p><b>(Day: -2) Thursday, August 19th</b>: Faculty Department meeting, in which we all wore masks and sat more than 6 feet away from each other. Halfway through the meeting I starting having mild symptoms, and left the meeting. I immediately went to the health clinic and got the quick test. It came back negative!</p><p><b>(Day: -1): Friday, August 20th</b>: I finished my three days of 2-hour-a-day instruction to freshmen students who arrived on campus a week early to acclimate. In these classroom settings I wore my KN95 mask. Students wore masks, but several did not have them over their noses (despite my reminders).</p><p>After instruction ended, about noon, I began to have more severe symptoms. Went home, and went to bed.</p><p><b>(Day: 0). Saturday, August 21st </b>I awoke with a vast array of symptoms. Coughing. Sore throat. Terrible headache, as if I had a sinus infection (but I only had a slight nasal congestion). Chills. Shortness of breath. And very weak.</p><p>Went to our physician's offices, who also provide a walk-in clinic and testing seven days a week, for a COVID test. No surprise, it came back positive. More bad news - my blood pressure was extremely high. My oxygen level was dangerously low. And the chest X-ray they immediately took indicated shadows in my lungs (I have never smoked or had any lung damage). I had also just started medication for a temporary condition, which medication was suppressive of my immune system. The physician assistant called my personal doctor, who ordered me to the ER to get evaluated for monoclonal antibody therapy.</p><p>There are two hospitals in Bowling Green, KY. I chose the one that did not have reports of an overburdened ER over the prior week, due to COVID. My physician's office called the ER in advance, and gave me a copy of the chest X-rays and exam notes. My devoted wife immediately took me to the chosen hospital.</p><p>It was busy. I registered in a half-hour. But there was a delay in getting back to the examination areas. I finally was escorted back - past rooms full of COVID-19 patients, some intubated. In one room an entire family was present, and crying - I assumed their loved one had just passed away.</p><p>I was led to another waiting area, not an exam room. A physician's assistant (PA) appeared, and took new vitals. Same very high blood pressure, and low oxygen levels. The PA reviewed everything conveyed to her about my medical history, and asked me more questions. She left, then returned 20 minutes later.</p><p>Yes, I should have monoclonal antibody infusions, she said. Under normal circumstances, I would even be admitted, given the number of symptoms I possessed. But, the flood of persons in the ER (and in other rooms at the hospital) - due to unvaccinated persons arriving with COVID-19 - was such that there was no open room to provide the injection, nor was there the availability of a nurse for 2 hours to undertake the procedure. While a clinic in town offered the treatment, they were not open on weekends. The PA said she would try to get me treated, as soon as possible, but to return home and quarantine.</p><p>My own quarantine would last for 10 days, and this day was pronounced "Day 0."</p><p>My wife, Cathy, who had driven me from location to location that day (with the windows down, and both of us wearing our masks), took me home. She moved her gear into the guest room for an extended stay. I am confined to my bedroom, which fortunately has an adjacent work area for my computer work, when able to do same. Pursuant to the PA's instructions, I was to have no contact with others. Food was placed in a tray outside the door, to be quickly retrieved by me.</p><p>I took more Tylenol and went to bed.</p><p>I was a little disappointed. Although I was glad to be home in my own bed, as a practical matter treatment to me was being rationed, due to resource constraints. All those people who had not been vaccinated were tying up the ER and hospital resources.</p><p><i>At the same time, I was very appreciative of all of the health care providers I saw. Some looked exhausted. Yet all were patient and professional, and were doing their best.</i></p><p><b>(Day 1 - Sunday, Aug. 22nd).</b> Awoke feeling quite lousy, and very weak. Had gotten up twice in the night, to again take medication to relieve body aches and headaches.</p><p>Then, got a call from the PA at the hospital. They could get me in that morning for the monoclonal antibody infusions. Great!</p><p>Did the infusions, and went back home. Two unfortunate side effects of the infusion ... slight nausea, and significant diarrhea. As if my life wasn't already fairly miserable.</p><p>Severe chills had me shaking for an entire hour that afternoon. No t.v., no reading. Just lying down and sleeping, as much as I can. Had the interesting delusion of talking to my wife and dog, as if they were laying upon the bed next to me, before I realized that they were not there. (Was a good conversation, however!)</p><p>No appetite, and no desire to eat dinner. Tried to keep up with fruit juices, in order to stay hydrated. Another long night - mostly sleeping, between fits of coughing and heading to the bathroom.</p><p><b>(Day 2 - Monday, August 23rd.)</b> Awoke very weak. Drank some water. Took a shower. Took Tylenol again.</p><p>By mid-morning many of the symptoms were diminishing. Headache was less severe. Chills were gone. The monoclonal antibody treatment, which typically takes 24-48 hours to kick in, seemed to be helping - significantly.</p><p>Worrisome, however, was my coughing up of small amounts of blood mixed in with clear mucus. Informed my physician, who told me this condition was common, not to worry, but to monitor it and keep him informed. The sounds (rattling) from my windpipe I could hear, when I laid down quietly, were also common in this circumstance.</p><p>Today was to be my first day of classes this Fall semester. Another professor is covering two of my classes. The two more advanced classes were canceled for today, and I hope to do Zoom sessions when the classes next meet on Wednesday.</p><p>Just writing this has worn me out. Time for another nap. (As one colleague emailed me today ... hydrate, nap, repeat.)</p><p><b>PLEASE:</b></p><p>If you have not already done so, get vaccinated. <b>Your vaccination is a gift of love to your family, friends, and community.</b></p><p>If you are vaccine hesitant, please read <a href="https://scholarfp.blogspot.com/2021/07/a-personal-message-to-university.html" target="_blank">my prior post</a>, from a month ago, exploring the need to engage in critical thinking before making any decisions.</p><p>Even if you are vaccinated, wear a mask, without exception, when out and about. I did not, just once or twice, the very first day I was "out and about." I regret my decision to "take the risk" in not wearing a mask at all times.</p><p>As I have learned, the Delta variant is not to be taken lightly. Even fully vaccinated, and even with great care from the health care providers I have seen, the last three days of my life have been a blur - with levels of discomfort I've not encountered often in my life.</p><p>Yet, I know it could have been much worse. <b>If I had not been vaccinated previously, who knows if I would have even survived. I could have easily been that departed soul whose family members grieved in an ER treatment room.</b></p><p>I have some days ahead for recovery. Still dealing with symptoms. And merely typing this - my first time on a computer in 72 hours - has left me drained.</p><p><i>Take care, everyone</i>. - Da Bear</p><p><br /></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><b><u>UPDATE: (Day 3, August 24th)</u></b></p><p>Can't believe it has been only 96 hours since I started feeling really ill. Seems like a month.</p><p>Such is the "prison" of my master bedroom - "unbearable." (However, my dear wife of 40 years provides me "room service" - as she and others in our household keep as far away from me as possible.)</p><p>Fortunately, feeling a bit stronger today. But poor sleep (due to bronchitis/coughing) has held me back a bit, along with continuation of some symptoms. Fortunately, fevers and headaches appear to be gone.</p><p>Was able to get in about 2 hours of work today, in 1-hour shifts. Both quite draining. Both leading to naps.</p><p>But, for me at least, the future appears bright. I look to commence teaching online next Monday (will be in quarantine), and hope to return to the classroom after Labor Day.</p><p><i>Very grateful for the care I have received from Dr. David Napier and his team at Graves Gilbert, and from the staff at TriStar Greenview Medical Hospital. I know so many of these health care professionals are stressed, especially as COVID's Delta variant is approaching its peak (hopefully) here in Bowling Green, KY. They truly are my heroes.</i></p><p><b><u>UPDATE: (Day 5, August 26th).</u></b></p><p>I'm learning that progress is not linear. Yesterday (Day 4) was difficult, for my, physically. Very tired. Headache returned. Lots of coughing. I was not able to get any work done.</p><p>Yesterday my wife tested positive for COVID. Her symptoms are confined, at this time, to nasal congestion and draining, similar to a head cold. As might be expected for most of those who have been vaccinated and yet still go on to catch the Delta variant.</p><p>The only "positive" side of her positive test is that she no longer <i>needs</i> to avoid me. So, I have been released from my prison, my wife has moved back from the guest bedroom. My wife and I are back to sleeping in the same bed (with our dog, Roxy, pleased to always lie between us, for maximum attention to be given to her).</p><p>Today I am stronger, but I doubt I could talk for more than a few minutes without getting out of breath and/or coughing significantly. A few other minor symptoms on this Day 5, but overall feeling much better. Am able to sit up, read, return emails, and post assignments for my students.</p><p>Sadly, I will miss this entire first week of my classes. (Another professor is covering one course for me, and for the other two courses I am giving reading assignments.) Next week I hope to teach via Zoom - and hopefully will be released from quarantine following a physician's exam on Day 11. That would put be back into the "live classroom" immediately after Labor Day, if all goes well.</p><p><i>Am grateful today for the support of my fellow faculty and staff members. And for the warm wishes received from so many.</i></p><p><i><b><u>UPDATE - Day 9. (August 30)</u></b></i></p><p><i>Taught two classes today, via Zoom. Physically exhausting. Continue to have a heavy cough and some chest congestion. Rest, sleep, and hydration still occupy a good portion of each day. I’ve come to realize that when you severely shock the body, it can take time to fully recover.</i></p><p><i>I am so glad I got vaccinated- back in March. If I had not, I suspect my chances of surging the COVID infection would have been, at best, 50/50.</i></p><p><i>My wife, Cathy, received monoclonal antibody infusion today; she will likely have fatigue and unpleasant side effects for several days. But the likelihood of her COVID infection becoming worse is now greatly diminished.</i></p><p><i>Local hospitals remain swamped with COVID cases- nearly all were unvaccinated persons. Several teens and young children in the hospital. And college students. If we are going to conquer this- as a nation - everyone needs to get vaccinated. To not get vaccinated is simply a selfish decision.</i></p><p><i>Am worried about reports of a new variant out of South Africa- possibly resistant to current vaccines. We need better vaccines, expanded manufacturing, and shots in arms worldwide. And better treatments.</i></p><p><i>It will still be a while before we can return to “normal” - and to a more robust economy. The faster we get people vaccinated- the faster we can get all aspects of our lives back on track.</i></p><p><i>Ignore the misinformation. Search for the truth. And then conclude that (except for a very small percentage of us( that clearly the benefits of vaccination greatly outweigh the very minor risks of same.</i></p><p><i>God bestowed us with the ability to conquer, over time, the challenges the world throws at us. God gave us the miracle of vaccines. And, thankfully, nearly all of us have had multiple vaccines since we were very young, and since then.</i></p><p><i>God gave us the ability to further limit the spread of viruses by wearing masks. Your “freedom” is not unduly restricted by mask mandates - whether in the workplace, in schools, or in stores. Common-sense dictates that reasonable measures can be required to protect others.</i></p><p><i>For example, you have the right (if age 21 or older) to drink alcohol. But that does not mean you have the freedom to drive drunk and create risks to others.</i></p><p><i>None of our freedoms - even those of freedom of speech, and freedom of religion - are absolute. For example, inciting a riot is not protected speech, nor is fraudulent speech in commercial transactions. Nor is defamatory speech, nor bullying. Nor is the right to practice religion absolute - freedom of religion cannot be used to justify human sacrifice, polyamory, or criminal acts.</i></p><p><i>The U.S. Supreme Court has long ruled that mandatory health measures can be justified in the interests of the greater good - the public health. Colleges and universities and schools, for example, may impose vaccine mandates.</i></p><p><i>Ignore the misinformation. Ignore the politicians who promote views, such as opposition to mandatory masks in schools. Understand that far too often politicians seek to capture and use populism- not for the good of the people, but rather due to their own self-interest in achieving and then maintaining power. Far too many politicians lie to you, then use you, to advance their own election or re-election.</i></p><p><i>Make a gift of love - to yourself, and to all those around you. Get vaccinated today!</i></p><p><b><u>Day 12 Update (Thursday September 2nd).</u></b></p><p>Am anxious to get this behind me. My Doctor prescribed Mucinex (which I have already been taking) and an inhaler to try to get my lungs clear, and to avoid secondary pneumonia. Also, short walks. Rest, inhaler, keep up the medications, and slowly get to the point where I can walk around the neighborhood again.</p><p>Able to work 4 hours today before getting really tired. But am optimistic I will be able to return to the classroom, and full-time teaching, by next Wednesday. I so miss seeing my students. And I am hopeful I will not get “long COVID,” due to the exceptional medical care I have received these past two weeks.</p><p>It is difficult to watch the news. COVID cases in many states are high, and peak cases and deaths likely has not yet arrived. Younger children - and young adults - increasingly account for those hospitalized. Here in Kentucky, another (healthy before catching COVID, yet unvaccinated) person under 30 died yesterday from the Delta variant, per published reports. Those who go on ventilators rarely live, and when they do their quality of life is often very poor.</p><p>And, as the news also reports, possible new, tougher COVID variants now exist in other parts of the world. Possibly spreading eventually to the U.S?</p><p>Yet, low vaccination rates exist. Despite the safety of vaccines, many persons appear more likely to inject themselves with an animal dewormer (that does not work to cure COVID) than a vaccine that has an in Seriously, people, you are not a horse, nor a cow.</p><p>Politicians seeking power continue to extort “the mob” with false information. Why is it that so many people follow politicians (and certain media personalities) who lie, so blindly? Alas, this has happened in every democracy since Ancient Greece. So many people don’t realize how they are just pawns in games of the powerful and the greedy - and so many give their loyalty to those who don’t deserve it. Critical, independent thinking is far too often in short supply.</p><p>Vaccines work - at least to limit the severity of COVID. I suspect that if I had not been vaccinated back in March, my epitaph would have been written several days ago, instead of me being on the road too recovery.</p><p>Masks also work, at least to reduce the spread of COVID. </p><p>My mistake was not wearing a mask during a a lunch and during an outdoor social event. All it takes is one slip.</p><p>These two long years of our discontent unfortunately will likely continue for several more months.</p><p>Let us hope and pray that ALL of us will finally commit to getting vaccinations, for the sake of our loved ones, our communities, and ourselves. Getting vaccinated is a personal responsibility - and a moral act. Our society functions much more effectively when we do the objective research, reach the right decision, and then ACT - to benefit not only ourselves, but also our loved ones.</p><p>Let us also hope and pray that the governments around the world will increase their commitments to get the world vaccinated, so that we can stop (or at least slow) the emergence of new variants.</p><p>I treasure so much more the simple things in life. Family gatherings. Eating out occasionally. Interacting with colleagues, students, clients, and just those whom I meet for brief time periods. Travel to see family, friends, and clients.</p><p>We are all, deep down, inherently social animals. Let us all do what it takes to get this pandemic behind us, so that we can increase our interactions with others, help overcome loneliness, and care for each other.</p><p><b><u>DAY 16 UPDATE - MONDAY, SEPT. 6TH (Labor Day): SHOULD I RETURN TO CAMPUS?</u></b></p><p>It is slow progress, but progress nevertheless as I continue my recovery from COVID. I was able to work (on the computer) an increasing number of hours each day - 6 hours yesterday - without unduly pushing myself.</p><p>I am very good at taking my medicine, including the inhaler every 4 hours. And doing short walks. My strength (and lung capacity) appear to be returning, but a lingering cough persists.</p><p>My doctor confirmed I am no longer infectious to others.</p><p>Tomorrow I desire to head back to campus. I would then teach four classes on Wednesday.</p><p><b><i style="background-color: #fcff01;">There is a debate in my home, however. On one side - me. On the other - my wife and daughters.</i></b></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i><u style="background-color: #fff2cc;">Argument: Don't return to campus - teach online.</u></i></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>My age (63) and health conditions (overweight, hypertension, etc.) are such that I risk catching COVID again. </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I may remain immunosuppressed due to taking an injection of a "biologic" medicine three weeks ago (for psoriasis). (My doctor has advised me not to take further injections, for now.) </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Many students on campus are not wearing masks properly, when indoors, as required. </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>353 cases of COVID infections were reported on my campus (of 15,000 people) since August 12th. In my own classes, of 150 or so students total, about a dozen have reported via email to me that they either contracted COVID or are in quarantine due to possible exposure.</li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>My State of Kentucky has record levels of infections, at present. From a news article yesterday: "Kentucky recorded a seven-day average of 4,423 new daily cases on Saturday, according to a New York Times database. Deaths and hospitalizations have been rising, too. 'Our situation is dire,' Governor Beshear said."</li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"Dad, you can teach and conduct meetings from home, via Zoom."</li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>It is not worth the risk. </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Others in my household (mother-in-law) would again be at risk if I catch COVID again. </li></ul><p></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i><u style="background-color: #b6d7a8;">Argument: The risk is minimal; return to teaching in-person.</u></i></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I've had both Pfizer shots in March, monoclonal antibodies infusion just two weeks ago, and have developed antibodies from having COVID. Hence, the risk of not having sufficient antibodies to ward off another exposure to COVID is likely very small.</li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I will ask my doctor (appointment on Thursday morning) about getting a booster shot. </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I will ask students in all of my classes to be particular cognizant about wearing masks properly, and won't hesitate to approach those that are not doing so. </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I taught online last year. Despite many days I spent preparing to teach online, with new techniques, my experience was that student learning was not as effective. Especially so for freshmen students (and I have two freshmen classes this semester). </li></ul></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>This pandemic may not end until late Spring. We need to find ways to get back to normal, as best we can.</li></ul></blockquote><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">For now, I've decided to return to campus tomorrow, based upon a critical analysis of all of the information I've been able to read about the risk of reinfection.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: #fcff01; caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><b><u>FINAL UPDATE - THURSDAY, SEPT. 9TH (DAY 19).</u></b></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">Yesterday I taught in-person classes - four of them. A very exhausting day, yet classes went well.</span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">My doctor today stated that, with two weeks gone, I am "out of the woods." He suggests continued exercise, each day, to continue to recover lung capacity.</span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">While still coughing a lot, it subsides each day. And I feel my strength returning, a bit each day. With time, the shortness of breath I feel after any extensive walking or other exercise will go away.</span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><i>I would like to express my gratitude:</i></span></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">To my wife, Cathy, for taking care of me. And not complaining too much when she contracted COVID from me!</span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">For the vaccinations I had in March. Doubt I would have survived without then.</span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">To Dr. Napier at Graves Gilbert Clinic, Bowling Green, KY, and to the many others (nurses, lab techs, etc.) for the excellent care provided.</span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">To my fellow faculty members, for covering classes and other duties for me, and especially Professor Zach Jones.</span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">To my friends, clients, colleagues, and students, for the many best wishes sent my way. They are very much "pick me up."</span></li></ul><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">And, lastly, I give appreciation for the conversation I had, when in a state of delirium during the most difficult days. I spoke out loud to my wife, Cathy, and our dog, Roxy, for several minutes. Only when I realized that my wife was just patiently listening, and not talking back, did my head clear and I realized I was alone in bed, and wife was not present. The "conversation" was, altogether, a very strange occurrence, once I realized I was the only one talking, and that my wife's presence was not real. </span><i style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">Then again, it may be the best conversation I've ever had with my wife!</i></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><br /></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><b>For those who have been vaccinated, </b>don't let down your guard. Mask up. Social distance. Keep indoor activities with many others to a minimum. Having vaccines protects you (largely) from going into the hospital, or worse, as it did me. But it is not absolute protection. Especially if you are older and/or are immunocompromised in any way.</span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><br /></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><b>For those who have not been vaccinated, </b>DON'T DELAY - get vaccinated TODAY. Too many of our children are in the hospital and have died from the Delta variant. Tens of thousands will die over the coming months. We can defeat the Delta variant, and save the lives of our children, family, friends, and others in our community - but only if many more of us get vaccinated (and wear masks properly, and social distance). [GO ONLINE to reliable, non-partisan sources. View the research. Critically analyze the risks vs. benefits of vaccinations for COVID. And look for the many, many articles in which those who were unvaccinated, prior to dying, urged their family members and others to get vaccinated.]</span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><br /></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);">We are all dismayed at the length of this pandemic. Hopefully we will return to some condition which is more of "normal" than we have experienced, in the Spring. Until then, we need to renew our efforts, for the greater good, to tackle the challenges that continue to face us.</span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><br /></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><b>ALL MY BEST, TO EVERYONE.</b></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"><b>STAY SAFE!</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="caret-color: rgb(43, 0, 254);"> - Ron (Da Bear)</span></div><p></p><p><br /></p><p> </p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-36892885515534075632021-07-26T11:06:00.002-04:002021-08-07T15:05:15.629-04:00A Personal Message to University Students Regarding the Delta Variant of COVID-19 and the Decision to Get Vaccinated<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"> <b style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">An Open Letter to University Students
Regarding Your Choice to Become Vaccinated (and Your Personal Responsibility to
Become Well-Informed)</span></b></p></blockquote></blockquote><p><b style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">By Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®</span><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="font-size: 10.5pt;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[i]</span></span></span></a></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">July 25, 2021</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">This communication
represents the author’s own views, and are not necessarily the views of any
institution, organization, firm, clan, tribe, gang, cult, nor motley group of
characters to which the author currently belongs or has ever been kicked out
from.</span></i></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"><b><i><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">I urge all readers of
this article, who remain unvaccinated, to fully explore the evidence (from
multiple sources), and to discuss the issue with their family physician.</span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">FROM USA TODAY, JULY 21, 2021: “IT’S TOO LATE” – A
PHYSICIAN HAS TO TELL PATIENTS.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><br /></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">An Alabama physician glumly says she is
making "a lot of progress" in encouraging people to vaccinate – as
she struggles to keep them alive.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Dr. Brytney Cobia, a hospitalist at
Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, wrote in </span></i><a href="https://www.facebook.com/brytneysnowcobia" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">a recent
Facebook post</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> she is treating a lot of young, otherwise
healthy people for serious coronavirus infections.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“One of the last things they do before
they're intubated is beg me for the vaccine," she wrote. "I hold
their hand and tell them that I'm sorry, but it's too late."<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">In her post, Cobia wrote that when
a patient dies, she hugs their family members and urges them to get
vaccinated. She said they cry and tell her they thought the pandemic was a
"hoax," or "political," or targeting some other age group
or skin color.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">"They wish they could go back.
But they can't," Cobia wrote. "So they thank me and they go get the
vaccine. And I go back to my office, write their death note, and say a small
prayer that this loss will save more lives."<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ii]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></span></i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">CONSERVATIVE MEDIA AND POLITICAL LEADERS CHANGING
THEIR MESSAGE – “GET VACCINATED.”</span></b></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Fox News launched a public service announcement urging
people to get the Covid-19 vaccine this past week.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iii]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Sean Hannity, on Monday, told his viewers to “please
take Covid seriously – I can’t say it enough.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn4" name="_ednref4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iv]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is
calling for more Americans to get vaccinated, [stating:]<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘These shots need to get in everybody’s arms
as rapidly as possible or we´re going to be back in a situation in the fall
that we don’t yearn for — that we went through last year … This is not
complicated.”</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“Utah’s Republican governor, Spencer Cox, encouraged
people in the state to get vaccinated and blamed conservative media for stoking
vaccine hesitancy. ‘We have these talking heads who have gotten the vaccine and
are telling other people not to get the vaccine,’ Cox said, according to The
Hill. ‘It’s dangerous. It’s damaging. And it’s killing people. It’s literally
killing their supporters and that makes no sense to me.’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When asked about Cox’s comment, [Senator
Mitch] McConnell urged Americans to ‘ignore all of these other voices that are
giving demonstrably bad advice.’”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn5" name="_ednref5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[v]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Several “Republican governors also redoubled their
efforts to get their constituents vaccinated, including Missouri's Mike Parson,
West Virginia's Jim Justice and Florida's Ron DeSantis.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn6" name="_ednref6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[vi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">THE DELTA VARIANT OF COVID-19 “IS A DIFFERENT DISEASE”
AND SPREADS FAR MORE EASILY<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“’This
is a different disease. This is much worse,’ Dr. Clay Marsh said during the
state [of West Virginia] COVID-19 briefing. “The more I learn about this, the
more I’m worried … Marsh said people infected with the delta variant have
1,000-times more virus in their airways, compared to the original COVID-19
virus. That high concentration, he said, allows the variant to easily spread
from person to person …..”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn7" name="_ednref7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[vii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">YOUNG PEOPLE ARE AT FAR MORE RISK OF INFECTION FROM
THE DELTA VARIANT<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“Mississippi's “recent sequencing data of 231
Delta variant cases show the variant spreading among young
Mississippians:<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Those
ages 39 and under make up 65% of Delta variant cases<o:p></o:p></span></i></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Of that
group, those ages 1-17 account for almost 34% of Delta variant
cases””<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn8" name="_ednref8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[viii]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></i></li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">DEATHS AND HOSPITALIZATIONS AMONG THE YOUNG ARE MORE
COMMON FROM THE DELTA VARIANT, AS IS THE OFTEN SEVERE LONG-TERM COMPLICATIONS
CALLED “LONG COVID”<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“Just
how many deaths will occur as a result of the recent uptick in transmission is
still unclear. Even if they die at lower rates than older adults, some of the
younger adults hospitalized in recent weeks will still die. But cases only
started rising in the past few weeks, and it can take people with Covid-19 that
long to die, and another few weeks for their deaths to be recorded.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn9" name="_ednref9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“Even
though treatments are better than they were originally, a larger share of
patients are ending up in intensive care, and the fatality rate for those
patients remains high, experts said. ‘That’s just indicative of the more
virulent quality of the delta variant … It will make people sick, even people
that are young and would not have felt any consequence from the original wild
variant.’ Frighteningly, he said, far more children are being hospitalized,
which was very rare until recently.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn10" name="_ednref10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[x]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“The
UK's top doctor has warned that more young people will get 'long COVID' as the
Delta variant, which is now responsible for most of cases in the US, pushes up
infection rates … One in three people who get symptomatic COVID-19 develop long
COVID, defined as at least one self-reported symptom lasting for more than 12
weeks …”.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn11" name="_ednref11" style="mso-endnote-id: edn11;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">WE EACH HAVE PERSONAL CHOICES – AND A RESPONSIBILITY
TO MAKE A WISE, INFORMED CHOICE.</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">As of July 21, 2021, new
infections of COVID-19 nearly tripled over the past two weeks,<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn12" name="_ednref12" style="mso-endnote-id: edn12;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and even higher rates of infection will occur soon. A “fourth wave” of COVID-19
has started. Unlike previous waves, more and more younger people are becoming
infected.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic
situation throughout 2020 and early into 2021, each of us individually
possesses the freedom to make a choice – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">whether
to get vaccinated or not</i>. Individual decisions should be made using a
cost-benefit analysis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">With the freedom to make
choices also comes responsibility – to make decisions that optimize our own
health outcomes. And that personal responsibility also includes to consider the
well-being of others around us. A society benefits from prudent
decision-making, by individuals, who carefully consider the choices they face
to optimize their own outcomes, but also considering the impact of their
decisions upon their family members, friends, and the greater community.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">In this communication, I seek to gather
the insights from many different sources, so that you – university students
around the United States - may better make an informed decision. I caution that
I am not a physician, nor am I trained in public health. Yet, I seek to relay
facts and figures gleaned from those who are researching and communicating
about COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">It is my sincere hope that you, the
reader, will carefully consider these facts, and undertake your own additional
investigations in order to make an informed personal decision.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">Furthermore, I urge you to
discuss your investigation, and any tentative conclusions you may reach with
your personal physician.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">EXPLORING VACCINE HESITANCY.</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> We should not dismiss, outright, the hesitancy of
those to becoming vaccinated. But those who are hesitant to receive a vaccine
against COVID-19 should, in turn, carefully research and explore the facts, and
undertake a cost-benefit analysis (which is set forth below).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">There exists a lot of
erroneous facts and opinions about vaccinations for COVID-19. In May 2021,
Kaiser-Permanente Health Monitor Survey reported that approximately two-thirds
of the unvaccinated believed at least one erroneous fact about the vaccines;
many respondents held multiple inaccurate conclusions.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn13" name="_ednref13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Please permit me to briefly
explore some of the major reasons for vaccine hesitancy:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">A large reason for vaccine hesitancy appears to be
distrust of the government, which has increased substantially over the past
five decades since Watergate.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn14" name="_ednref14" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xiv]</span></span></span></a>
And, for some, a distrust of “science” also exists.</span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Yet, the reality
is that “very few Americans actually oppose vaccines. For instance, only a tiny
proportion of parents forgo vaccination for their children. Prior to the
pandemic, vaccination rates were generally high and stable for very young
children and those of school-entry age. For example, 95 percent of children
were vaccinated against measles, mumps, and rubella with the MMR vaccine in the
2018–19 school year. Pockets of hesitancy remain and improvement is needed on
some vaccines, but we should not confuse the visibility of a small number of
anti-vaccine activists with sentiment toward vaccines in the broader
population.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn15" name="_ednref15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xv]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Politico reports:
“Many people are turning down Covid vaccines because they are angry that
President Donald Trump lost the election and sick of Democrats thinking they
know what’s best.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn16" name="_ednref16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Yet, Trump rightfully launched the programs that led to rapid development of
the vaccines, and Trump has been vaccinated. Trump has also urged others to
become vaccinated. “Sean Hannity and other Fox News reporters earlier this week
suddenly changed their tune, as did many Republicans on Capitol Hill, calling
on their viewers and constituents to sign up for the vaccine.”<a name="_Hlk78107421"></a><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn17" name="_ednref17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk78107421;"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk78107421;"></span> Emotions in politics run high, but
might I suggest – whether you are Republican, Democrat, Green Party, other
political party, or independent – that you focus on the cost-benefit analysis
for your health and life, personally, as well as upon the effect of COVID-19
upon your community. Are there better ways to make a political statement, that don't endanger yourself or others?</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">There is a belief, especially among those who are ages
18-24, that they are invincible.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">This belief was
similar to that seen in the late 1950’s. “When the Salk vaccine came out, parents
were very keen to have their children vaccinated, but young adults were not
convinced that they were at risk and did not get vaccinated. Only after
additional epidemics showed that that they too could die or be paralyzed by
polio did adults turn up to get vaccinated.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn18" name="_ednref18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xviii]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">As discussed
below, young people – even very healthy adults – are at some risk of death, and
at a great risk of long-term symptoms, from catching the Delta variant of
COVID-19.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">For those
attending colleges and universities, if you are not vaccinated and are exposed
to a person with COVID-19, you may be forced to quarantine (and miss classes)
for ten days, or longer. And if you catch COVID-19, a similar period of
quarantine will occur – and you will likely have days (or even weeks) where you
are unable to effectively keep up with your course work (due to symptoms from
which you are likely to suffer). Of course, there is even the possibility of
severe illness, hospitalization, and even death, as explained below.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Some members of minority groups have particular
aversion to medical treatments.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“Dark and tragic
episodes from the past, such as the Tuskegee syphilis study, remain deeply
rooted in the consciousness of minority communities. In the 40-year experiment,
Black men were misled about the research and forced to suffer from untreated
syphilis, despite the availability of penicillin. Present-day problems, such as
the lack of access to adequate health care and insurance, persist in minority
communities.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn19" name="_ednref19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xix]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Lacking a
personal perspective on these issues, I can only urge members of minority
groups to discuss the issue of reluctance to take a COVID-19 vaccination with
their family physician, members of the clergy, or others that they may trust
for guidance.</span></p></blockquote>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">There exist concerns among some that the vaccines may
have long-term adverse effects.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Having seen
advertisements from personal injury attorneys pursuing cases against
pharmaceutical companies for medications that turned out to have greater
adverse effects than advertised, the concern about long-term effects from any
medication should not be surprising.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Yet, vaccines are
highly, highly unlikely to possess long-term adverse effects.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level3 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">§<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“It’s true that reports of new side effects can
sometimes take months to emerge as a vaccine goes from populations of thousands
in clinical trials to millions in the real world, encountering natural
variations in human responses along the way. But more than a hundred million
Americans have already passed that point in their vaccinations and the first participants
in the clinical trials are now beyond a year.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn20" name="_ednref20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xx]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level3 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">§<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“Side-effects nearly always occur within a couple of
weeks of a person being vaccinated,” says John Grabenstein, director of
scientific communication for the Immunization Action Coalition. He adds that
the longest time before a side effect appeared for any type of shot has been
six weeks. “The concerns that something will spring up later with the COVID-19
vaccines are not impossible, but based on what we know, they aren’t likely,”
adds Miles Braun, adjunct professor of medicine at the Georgetown University
School of Medicine and the former director of the division of epidemiology at
the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn21" name="_ednref21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxi]</span></span></span></span></a></span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level3 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">§<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“A key reason for this limited window of side effects
is the short time all vaccines stay in the body, says Onyema Ogbuagu, an
infectious diseases specialist at Yale Medicine … Unlike medicines that people
take every day or week, vaccines are generally administered once or a handful
of times over a lifetime.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn22" name="_ednref22" style="mso-endnote-id: edn22;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxii]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level3 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">§<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">“The mRNA never enters the nucleus of the cell, which
is where DNA lives, so it does not affect a person’s DNA.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn23" name="_ednref23" style="mso-endnote-id: edn23;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxiii]</span></span></span></span></a></span></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The fact that the vaccines are “provisionally
approved” has increased hesitancy among a small percentage of adults.</span></p></blockquote>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">However, the U.S.
Food and Drug Administration is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">widely
expected</i> to grant full approval this fall, faster than the time line for
full approval for other medications.</span></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">It is about personal choice and freedom.</span></p></blockquote>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Yes, it is, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">in most instances</i>.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Our society must, necessarily, balance personal freedom with protection; we elect representatives to legislate the rules by which personal choice and freedoms might be curtailed, subject to Constitutional protections. For example, the right to drive a car is not absolute - there are many regulations that require we drive in a manner that makes it safer for ourselves and for others.</span></li></ul><p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> It is also about
a </span><i style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">responsibility</i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> to take charge of
one’s own health future, as well as a </span><i style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">responsibility</i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
to the communities in which we work and live.</span></li></ul><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">There is no
federal law that mandates vaccines for all citizens. However, states and
employers<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn24" name="_ednref24" style="mso-endnote-id: edn24;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
generally have the right to require vaccination.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.5in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level3 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">§<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The courts have upheld vaccination requirements in the
past (such as the many K-12 school districts that require vaccinations, or even
vaccinations required of all citizens in a municipality<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn25" name="_ednref25" style="mso-endnote-id: edn25;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>),
and most recently have also upheld Indiana University’s requirement for its
students to be vaccinated.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Hopefully we will
not see massive shutdowns of businesses. Yet, some businesses will suffer,
particularly in areas with low vaccination rates (where the Delta variant is
likely to cause higher rates of transmission). While not as severe as 2020, we
will likely see reduced economic activity, and the loss of some jobs, due to
the Delta variant’s impact. We can lessen this impact by each of us carefully
considering the issue of vaccination.</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Any society, to
thrive, also requires individuals to think about people other than themselves. The
problem with the “personal choice” argument – taken to an extreme – is that
“this is an infection where it’s not only about you. If you don’t get vaccinated,
it’s not only you who takes the risk. You risk a lot of people around you,
including people you like and love.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">THE DELTA VARIANT IS CAUSING A FOURTH WAVE OF
INFECTIONS. </span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">We are all more than
tired of COVID-19 and the restrictions our society has endured over the past
year-and-a-half. Yet, the troubling “fourth wave” has arrived in the form of
the Delta variant. The daily count of new cases of infection, here in the United
States, has risen from an estimated 80,000 cases per day (the “confirmed
number” was only 11,000 or so) in mid-June, to about 235,000 (reported number
is, again, lower) on June 23, 2021.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn26" name="_ednref26" style="mso-endnote-id: edn26;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Projections from the IMHE indicate that the number of daily new infections will
likely rise to 300,000 by mid-August, and that such number will likely continue
through the fall of 2021.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn27" name="_ednref27" style="mso-endnote-id: edn27;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">DAILY DEATH TOLLS ARE INCREASING.</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> The IMHE estimates that the daily death toll in the
United States will return to over 700 a day by the beginning of September.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn28" name="_ednref28" style="mso-endnote-id: edn28;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE THIS FOURTH WAVE. </span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The IMHE states: “We believe there are two main
strategies to respondto the Delta surge that each state should consider.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">[REDUCE VACCINE HESITANCY</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">.] First, every effort should be taken to<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">M </b>reduce vaccine hesitancy and increase
the coverage of mRNA vaccination. This likely<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>should include targeting communities where vaccine hesitancy is
high for messaging,<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>outreach, and
enhanced access.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">[WEAR MASKS – EVEN IF VACCINATED.] </span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Second, based on the evidence from around the world,
we estimate that mRNA vaccines are 81%–83% effective in preventing Delta
variant infection. Johnson & Johnson may prevent only 64% of Delta variant
infections. Vaccinated individuals may be playing an important role in
transmission. Mask mandates for the unvaccinated and vaccinated should be
considered in communities with rapid increases in transmission.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn29" name="_ednref29" style="mso-endnote-id: edn29;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS. </span></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">In this chart I
present a discussion of the issues – with answers discerned from sources judged
to be reliable – that I hope will inform your decision.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="3" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-cellspacing: 1.4pt; mso-padding-alt: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt 4.3pt; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 654px;">
<thead>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">ISSUE<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">IF YOU ARE UNVACCINATED<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">IF YOU ARE FULLY VACCINATED<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 1; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The
likelihood of catching COVID-19<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Says Carlos
del Rio, an infectious-diseases doctor and executive associate dean of Emory
University School of Medicine in Atlanta: “If you’re not vaccinated, you are
really in trouble because it’s likely you will get infected.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn30" name="_ednref30" style="mso-endnote-id: edn30;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxx]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Some
unvaccinated people have caught COVID-19 for a second and third time. “[P]eople
who go unvaccinated after catching COVID-19 are more at risk of catching it
again. The reasons are the length of natural immunity from the infection is
believed to only last a short time, and different variants circulating
increase the risk.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn31" name="_ednref31" style="mso-endnote-id: edn31;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Some media
have reported statements by political leaders and even physicians that
everyone who is not vaccinated will eventually catch COVID-19, at least once.
While the risk of catching COVID-19 for the unvaccinated is always <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">extremely high (and ongoing),</i> I could
not find any medical evidence that suggests that catching COVID-19 is an <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">absolute certainty</i> for the
unvaccinated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">As “of July 12, out of 159 million fully vaccinated people, the CDC
documented 5,492 cases of fully vaccinated people who were hospitalized or
died from COVID-19, and 75% of them were over age 65.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn32" name="_ednref32" style="mso-endnote-id: edn32;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">For the Delta variant, the “[d]ata so far suggests efficacy rates of
more than 67 percent for the J&J vaccine, 72 to 95 percent for the
Moderna vaccine, and 64 to 96 percent for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn33" name="_ednref33" style="mso-endnote-id: edn33;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Even in those with good immunity, vaccine protection is likely to
wane over time, though researchers aren’t sure yet of the speed at which that
occurs.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn34" name="_ednref34" style="mso-endnote-id: edn34;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“On Thursday, the CDC presented data to its panel of vaccine advisers
indicating that immunocompromised people comprise about 2.7% of adults in the
US.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">When immunocompromised people are infected with coronavirus, the data
showed they are more likely to get severely ill. If they are vaccinated, the
data showed they are more likely to have breakthrough infections. A study in
the US found 44% of hospitalized breakthrough cases were immunocompromised
people, while a study in Israel found a rate of 40%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">’Emerging data show there is an enhanced antibody response after an additional
dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in some immunocompromised people … While early
data show some potential benefit to administering an additional dose, more
evidence is needed to determine safety and effectiveness in immunocompromised
people.’ ‘<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn35" name="_ednref35" style="mso-endnote-id: edn35;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 2; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The
likelihood of death from COVID-19, in the United States<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">While the
official number of confirmed deaths in the United States due to COVID-19 has
risen to 610,000, evidence exists that the actual number could be 1,000,000
or more. Out of an estimated 330,000,000 Americans, that means that the risk
of death, overall, is likely at least 1 in 300.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">However, as
noted below, the risk of death from COVID-19 does vary by age and underlying
medical conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">After the receipt of a vaccination against COVID-19, the risk of death
among those vaccinated is extremely low.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">While vaccinations are highly effective at preventing death and
serious illness, even for the Delta variant, the protection is not 100%
absolute.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">Moreover, the effectiveness of a vaccination may wane over time. By
Fall 2021 it is expected that those at greater risk (over age 65, or with
underlying health conditions) may be recommended to receive booster shots.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 3; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The
likelihood of “severe illness” from the Delta variant of COVID-19, generally<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“[U]nvaccinated
people account for virtually all recent COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths
in the U.S.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn36" name="_ednref36" style="mso-endnote-id: edn36;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Unvaccinated
individuals account for virtually all — 97 percent — of the COVID
hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S., health officials said in a July 22
news briefing.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn37" name="_ednref37" style="mso-endnote-id: edn37;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Other
variants have triggered more traditional COVID-19 symptoms that resemble the
flu, such as the loss of smell, fever, shortness of breath, or persistent
cough. However, the Delta variant appears to present more like the common
cold, causing upper respiratory symptoms such as a sore throat or runny nose.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn38" name="_ednref38" style="mso-endnote-id: edn38;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Serious
illness” is typically defined to be when hospitalization occurs. And for many
this means confinement to the Intensive Care Units, a horrible array of
symptoms, and at times intubation (which is very, very uncomfortable, and not
something you ever want to endure).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Real-world studies in Israel, the U.K., and the U.S. showed that mRNA
COVID-19 vaccines are over 96% effective in preventing hospitalization and
death, and about 90% effective against infection in real-life conditions.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn39" name="_ednref39" style="mso-endnote-id: edn39;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xxxix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Current data indicate most COVID vaccines authorized for use offer
protection against severe illness caused by the most common variants, with
some inoculations—in particular the so-called mRNA vaccines made by Moderna
Inc., and Pfizer Inc. and its partner BioNTech SE—providing a stronger
defense than others. Research suggests that achieving maximum immune
protection requires receiving a full course of vaccine—usually two shots
spread across intervals that vary from 2 to 12 weeks apart, depending on the
product. And it takes time for the vaccine to take its full intended
effect—about two weeks from the last dose, though the protection from some
vaccines may build steadily over some months.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn40" name="_ednref40" style="mso-endnote-id: edn40;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xl]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The greater
risks posed to those who are older or possess health conditions<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“[T]he
likelihood of dying of COVID-19 varies greatly between individuals, depending
on factors such as age or underlying health conditions … death increases with
age. Adults aged between 30 and 39 years old are already four times more
likely to die than people aged 18 to 29 years old. The likelihood of dying
increases up to 600 times for those aged 85 and older.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn41" name="_ednref41" style="mso-endnote-id: edn41;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xli]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Certain
medical conditions, such as heart and respiratory conditions, weakened immune
system, cancer, diabetes, or obesity can increase a person’s likelihood of
dying from COVID-19, regardless of their age. Pregnant people are also more
likely to get severely ill ….”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn42" name="_ednref42" style="mso-endnote-id: edn42;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xlii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Some individuals may not mount a robust response to the vaccine,
meaning they fail to generate sufficient levels of virus-blocking antibodies
and the T cells that hunt down and kill virus-infected cells. Of special
concern are older people and those who are immunocompromised, meaning they have
a weakened immune system because, for example, they have a disease that
affects it such as AIDS or are taking immunosuppressive drugs after a
transplant or to treat cancer.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn43" name="_ednref43" style="mso-endnote-id: edn43;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xliii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">NOTE: Booster shots
may become available in the fall of 2021</span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
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<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 5; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The
likelihood of death from COVID-19, in the United States, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">for younger persons</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“ ’We do
know that in our ICUs, we are seeing younger people intubated who are very
sick or who are on the floors and are very sick,’ said Jeanne Marrazzo,
professor of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.
‘That should be a gigantic wake-up call.’ ”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn44" name="_ednref44" style="mso-endnote-id: edn44;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xliv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Although
children and young adults are less likely to die of COVID-19 compared to
older age groups, there is no group that experiences the absence of risk.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn45" name="_ednref45" style="mso-endnote-id: edn45;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xlv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Children
with COVID-19 can develop a condition called multisystem inflammatory
syndrome (MIS-C). In MIS-C, inflammation can develop in any of several body
parts, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or
gastrointestinal organs.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn46" name="_ednref46" style="mso-endnote-id: edn46;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xlvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">It is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">extremely rare </i>for
younger persons (absent significant preexisting health conditions) to have
received the vaccine and then catch COVID-19 and become so severely ill that
they die.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Israel, which by early 2021 had given more COVID vaccines per capita
than anywhere else in the world, recorded almost 400 hospitalizations among
fully vaccinated patients by late April. Of those, 234 suffered severe COVID
and 90 cases were fatal. A careful review of almost half the hospitalized
vaccinated people found their risk of developing a severe illness was
magnified by pre-existing ailments, such as high blood pressure, diabetes,
and heart failure, as well as medical conditions that weakened their immune
systems.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn47" name="_ednref47" style="mso-endnote-id: edn47;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xlvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 6; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Risks of
side effects from vaccination versus the risks of “long-term COVID”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 192.1pt;" valign="top" width="256">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">While death
and serious illness (including hospitalization) are risks of COVID-19,
another risk is long-term adverse health consequences from those who catch
COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“It’s young
adults who are seeing a little more of the long-haul COVID, which can
interfere with your quality of life massively.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn48" name="_ednref48" style="mso-endnote-id: edn48;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xlviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Growing
evidence indicates that long COVID causes considerable loss in quality of
life and is a serious health concern. An international survey published in July
2021 in the scientific journal The Lancet found that 22% of the 3,762
recovered COVID-19 patients involved in the study reported to be unable to
work seven months later, and 45% of them required a reduced work schedule.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn49" name="_ednref49" style="mso-endnote-id: edn49;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[xlix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Among the
most common were complications affecting the kidneys and respiratory system;
neurological and cardiovascular problems were also reported.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These complications occurred across age
groups, including in young and previously healthy individuals.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn50" name="_ednref50" style="mso-endnote-id: edn50;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[l]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">An increasing number of studies find that greater than one fourth of patients have developed some form of long COVID. (In one study from China, three quarters of patients had at least one ongoing symptom six months after hospital discharge, and in another report more than half of infected health care workers had symptoms seven to eight months later.) Initial indications suggest that the likelihood of developing persistent symptoms may not be related to the severity of the initial illness; it is even conceivable that infections that were initially asymptomatic could later cause persistent problems. </span><span style="font-size: small;">For some, symptoms have now continued for many months with no apparent end in sight, with many survivors fearing that they will simply have to adjust to a “new normal.” More and more sufferers have not been able to return to work, even months after their initial illness. While the number of patients with persistent illness remains undetermined this early in the pandemic, estimates suggest that<b> millions of Americans may enter the ranks of the permanently disabled.</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">A recent
analysis published in </span><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2780376" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">JAMA Network Open</span></i></a><i><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">highlights just how common new or
persisting symptoms are in people recovering from COVID-19. Across 45
studies, more than 70 percent of COVID-19 patients, most of whom were
hospitalized for the illness, reported a range of symptoms — 84 in total —
months after their initial diagnosis. Shortness of breath, fatigue and sleep
disorders were among the most commonly reported symptoms. Anxiety and
depression were also up there. What’s more, previous research has found that
long-haul symptom are common in people who had mild or asymptomatic
cases of COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">A recent
analysis published in JAMA Network Open highlights just how common new or
persisting symptoms are in people recovering from COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Across 45 studies, more than 70 percent of
COVID-19 patients, most of whom were hospitalized for the illness, reported a
range of symptoms — 84 in total — months after their initial diagnosis.
Shortness of breath, fatigue and sleep disorders were among the most commonly
reported symptoms. Anxiety and depression were also up there. What’s more,
previous research has found that long-haul symptoms are common in people who
had mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID-19.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 209.4pt;" valign="top" width="279">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">As noted previously, vaccinations are not 100% effective against
catching COVID-19, but they remain highly effective, even against the Delta
variant.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">While vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness
and death from COVID-19, there are side effects. Younger persons, in
particular, can suffer from flu-like symptoms for a day or two, especially
after receiving the second dose. However, the risks of long-term COVID
(discussed at left) far outweigh the risks of temporary symptoms from the
vaccine.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Over 339 million vaccine doses were given to 187 million people in
the US as of July 19, 2021 … There are three deaths that appear to be linked
to blood clots that occurred after people got the J&J vaccine. Since we
now know how to correctly treat people who develop these blood clots, future
deaths related to this very rare side effect can be prevented.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn51" name="_ednref51" style="mso-endnote-id: edn51;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[li]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Since April 2021, there have been more than a thousand reports of
cases of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and pericarditis
(inflammation of the lining outside the heart) happening after receiving the
Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna coronavirus vaccines in the United States,
according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Considering
the hundreds of millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses that have been
administered, these reports are very rare. The problem occurs more often in
adolescents (teens) and young adults, and in males. The myocarditis or
pericarditis in most cases is mild and resolves quickly.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn52" name="_ednref52" style="mso-endnote-id: edn52;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[lii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">“There have been 100 reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome out of the
12.8 million people who have been vaccinated with the one-dose Johnson &
Johnson vaccine. Most of the cases occurred in men over the age of 50 around
2 weeks after being vaccinated. Most people who develop Guillain-Barré
syndrome recover successfully after being treated in the hospital … People
who have a history of Guillain-Barré syndrome and want to receive a COVID-19
vaccine should talk with their doctor, as there are two other vaccines —
Pfizer and Moderna — to choose from.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn53" name="_ednref53" style="mso-endnote-id: edn53;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[liii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 7; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Risk of catching COVID-19 a second time<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td colspan="2" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 402.9pt;" valign="top" width="537">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“’We know
that the level of antibodies one gets from natural infection varies depending
on the severity of their infection,’ said Mercedes Carnethon, an
epidemiologist at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. On the
other hand, ‘we get a more robust and consistent response from the vaccine.”
That makes it a better bet “for immunity over a long period of time,’ she
said.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn54" name="_ednref54" style="mso-endnote-id: edn54;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[liv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“It’s also
unclear whether the antibodies you developed in response to a coronavirus
infection will be able to recognize other variants of the virus.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn55" name="_ednref55" style="mso-endnote-id: edn55;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[lv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“Even if
you’ve had COVID-19, getting those shots is well worth it. Scientists have
found that </span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-04-12/one-shot-of-vaccine-may-be-enough-for-covid-survivors"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">even
a single dose of vaccine</span></a><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> gives
the immune system of a COVID-19 survivor a big boost.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn56" name="_ednref56" style="mso-endnote-id: edn56;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[lvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If you are
immunocompromised, see discussion above.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 8; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Should the
lack of 100% effectiveness of the vaccine deter you from becoming<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>vaccinated?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td colspan="2" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 402.9pt;" valign="top" width="537">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">No.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">“No vaccine
is 100% effective, and COVID-19 vaccines aren’t an exception. However, this
doesn’t mean we should reject them, just as we wouldn’t reject a parachute
before jumping from an airplane just because they don’t open in 100% of the
cases.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn57" name="_ednref57" style="mso-endnote-id: edn57;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[lvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="break-inside: avoid; mso-yfti-irow: 9; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes; page-break-inside: avoid;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 83.15pt;" valign="top" width="111">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">On the necessity
to wear masks<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td colspan="2" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 2.9pt 4.3pt 1.45pt; width: 402.9pt;" valign="top" width="537">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">While
vaccination is the best and far most effective way to guard against COVID-19,
masks (especially N-95 masks, properly worn) are the next best means to
reduce the risk of transmission.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">In recent
days, the advice to wear masks has returned. From an article from UC Davis
Health: “My advice is to continue masking. Even if you’re vaccinated,
definitely avoid large indoor gatherings – begrudgingly, again – and mask in
grocery stores, drug stores and other locations that don’t verify vaccination
status,” said Tuznik. “Socially distanced outdoor activities should be fine,
but if you might come into close contact, even briefly, with a stranger, then
mask up just in case.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn58" name="_ednref58" style="mso-endnote-id: edn58;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[lviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">From the
same article: “I’m fully vaccinated and I still wear a mask at the grocery
store or even outdoors in a crowded situation like at the farmer’s market,
because many unvaccinated people are choosing to go unmasked and I’m not
comfortable with that,” Blumberg explained.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_edn59" name="_ednref59" style="mso-endnote-id: edn59;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[lix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;">SOME PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS</span></b><span style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">The 2020-21 academic year was tough. Being older and at more risk of
serious illness from COVID-19, I chose to teach exclusively online. While I
undertook a great deal of preparation to better prepare my instructional
techniques (having never taught online before), I was not entirely pleased with
the results. Many students, especially freshmen, benefit greatly from the
exchanges with professors and their peers that occur in the classroom.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">Being fully vaccinated, myself, I look forward to returning to the
classroom in August 2021. Yet, as the Delta variant continues to surge cases, I
will take precautions. Wearing a mask. Washing my hands frequently. Trying to
engage in social distancing (although such will be difficult in a classroom
with 30-40 students).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">It is my hope that, after viewing this article, any students who have
not yet received vaccination will consult with their family physician, stop by
a vaccination site and confer with a health care provider, or just go ahead and
get either the Moderna or the Pfizer 2-dose vaccination shots.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">It is further my hope that very, very few college students will have
their studies interrupted from COVID-19, or even worse suffer from severe
and/or long-term health effects from COVID-19 (or even die from same).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">The college experience can be wonderful. It is a time of increased
personal freedom. But with that freedom also comes many responsibilities – to
one’s self, and to others.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">The response to the pandemic requires each and every one of us to think
critically, to examine all of the credible evidence, then make an informed and
rational decision, and then act on that decision.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Associate Professor of Finance, Western Kentucky University. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Again, this article represents the personal
views of the author, and are not necessarily those of WKU nor any other
organization or firm with whom the author is associated</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn2" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
USA Today, </span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/07/21/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-mask-cdc-hospitalizations/8035920002/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/07/21/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-mask-cdc-hospitalizations/8035920002/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn3" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
The Guardian, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/23/fox-news-covid-vaccination-tucker-carlson"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/23/fox-news-covid-vaccination-tucker-carlson</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 23, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn4" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref4" name="_edn4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn5" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref5" name="_edn5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
WebMD, </span><a href="https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210723/mcconnell-other-conservatives-now-backing-vaccinations"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210723/mcconnell-other-conservatives-now-backing-vaccinations</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 23, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn6" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref6" name="_edn6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[vi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
CNN, </span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/24/politics/republicans-covid-vaccines-2022-midterms/index.html"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/24/politics/republicans-covid-vaccines-2022-midterms/index.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 24, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn7" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref7" name="_edn7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[vii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/health/marsh-on-delta-variant-this-is-a-different-disease-this-is-much-worse/article_6afbd868-5b36-5517-ba1d-54c19946daf0.html"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/health/marsh-on-delta-variant-this-is-a-different-disease-this-is-much-worse/article_6afbd868-5b36-5517-ba1d-54c19946daf0.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,
July 22, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn8" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref8" name="_edn8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[viii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2021/07/16/data-show-nearly-35-delta-variant-mississippians-12-15/7981201002/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2021/07/16/data-show-nearly-35-delta-variant-mississippians-12-15/7981201002/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,
July 16, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn9" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref9" name="_edn9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
StatNews, </span><a href="https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/19/delta-vaccines-new-phase-pandemic/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/19/delta-vaccines-new-phase-pandemic/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,
July 19, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn10" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref10" name="_edn10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[x]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Washington Post, </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/unvaccinated-case-rate-delta-surge/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/unvaccinated-case-rate-delta-surge/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,
July 21, 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn11" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref11" name="_edn11" style="mso-endnote-id: edn11;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Business Insider,
https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-long-covid-young-people-chris-whitty-2021-7
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn12" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref12" name="_edn12" style="mso-endnote-id: edn12;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
USA Today, </span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/07/21/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-mask-cdc-hospitalizations/8035920002/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/07/21/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-mask-cdc-hospitalizations/8035920002/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,
July 7, 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn13" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref13" name="_edn13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/guest-commentary/os-op-pandemic-of-the-unvcaccinated-20210721-nx4gwisc7zez3ee33ocsezocmm-story.html"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/guest-commentary/os-op-pandemic-of-the-unvcaccinated-20210721-nx4gwisc7zez3ee33ocsezocmm-story.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 21, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn14" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref14" name="_edn14" style="mso-endnote-id: edn14;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
David Brooks, appearing on PBS Newshour, July 23, 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn15" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref15" name="_edn15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/how-to-build-trust-vaccines/617367/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/how-to-build-trust-vaccines/617367/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(Dec. 12, 2020)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn16" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref16" name="_edn16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/24/covid-vaccine-push-rural-500717">https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/24/covid-vaccine-push-rural-500717</a>
(July 23, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn17" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref17" name="_edn17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/24/covid-vaccine-push-rural-500717">https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/24/covid-vaccine-push-rural-500717</a>
(July 23, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn18" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref18" name="_edn18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.bradfordtoday.ca/local-news/beyond-local-will-covid-19-vaccination-enthusiasm-last-lessons-from-polio-and-h1n1-3967990"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.bradfordtoday.ca/local-news/beyond-local-will-covid-19-vaccination-enthusiasm-last-lessons-from-polio-and-h1n1-3967990</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 21, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn19" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref19" name="_edn19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://utswmed.org/medblog/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-mistrust/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://utswmed.org/medblog/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-mistrust/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(Feb. 4, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn20" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref20" name="_edn20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xx]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Meryl Davids Landau, “Vaccines are highly unlikely to cause side effects long
after getting the shot,” National Geographic (July 22, 2021). </span><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/vaccines-are-highly-unlikely-to-cause-side-effects-long-after-getting-the-shot-"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/vaccines-are-highly-unlikely-to-cause-side-effects-long-after-getting-the-shot-</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn21" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref21" name="_edn21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn22" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref22" name="_edn22" style="mso-endnote-id: edn22;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn23" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref23" name="_edn23" style="mso-endnote-id: edn23;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://utswmed.org/medblog/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-mistrust/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://utswmed.org/medblog/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-mistrust/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(Feb. 4, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn24" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref24" name="_edn24" style="mso-endnote-id: edn24;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
“On June 12, 2021, a federal District Court in Texas in </span><a href="https://www.lawandtheworkplace.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/2021/06/Bridges-v.-Houston-Methodist.pdf"><i><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Bridges,
et al v. Houston Methodist Hospital et al</span></i><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">, Docket
No. 4:21-cv-01774 (S.D. Tex. Jun 01, 2021) </span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">dismissed
a case challenging a hospital’s mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy for
employees. This is the first court opinion addressing the ability of employers
to require employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 … The Order concludes
with a strong endorsement of mandatory vaccine policies in employment, stating
that Plaintiffs “can freely choose to accept or refuse a COVID-19 vaccine;
however, if [they] refuse, [they] will simply need to work somewhere else…Every
employment includes limits on the worker’s behavior in exchange for his
remuneration. This is all part of the bargain.” </span><a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/federal-court-upholds-employer-s-covid-19-vaccine-mandate"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.natlawreview.com/article/federal-court-upholds-employer-s-covid-19-vaccine-mandate</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn25" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref25" name="_edn25" style="mso-endnote-id: edn25;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
On February 20, 1905, the Supreme Court, by a 7-2 majority, said in Jacobson v.
Massachusetts that the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts could fine residents
who refused to receive smallpox injections. In 1901, a smallpox epidemic swept
through the Northeast and Cambridge, and Massachusetts reacted by requiring all
adults receive smallpox inoculations subject to a $5 fine. In 1902, Pastor
Henning Jacobson, suggesting that he and his son both were injured by previous
vaccines, refused to be vaccinated and to pay the fine. In state court, Jacobson
argued the vaccine law violated the Massachusetts and federal constitutions.
The state courts, including the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, rejected
his claims. Before the Supreme Court, Jacobson argued that, “compulsion to
introduce disease into a healthy system is a violation of liberty.” On February
20, 1905, the Supreme Court rejected Jacobson’s arguments. Justice John
Marshall Harlan wrote about the police power of states to regulate for the
protection of public health: “The good and welfare of the Commonwealth, of
which the legislature is primarily the judge, is the basis on which the police
power rests in Massachusetts,” Harlan said<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>“upon the principle of self-defense, of paramount necessity, a community
has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens
the safety of its members.” </span><a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-the-supreme-court-rules-on-vaccines-and-public-health"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-the-supreme-court-rules-on-vaccines-and-public-health</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn26" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref26" name="_edn26" style="mso-endnote-id: edn26;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global
health research center at the University of Washington, estimates as of July
22, 2021. For updated projections, please visit </span><a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn27" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref27" name="_edn27" style="mso-endnote-id: edn27;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn28" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref28" name="_edn28" style="mso-endnote-id: edn28;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn29" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref29" name="_edn29" style="mso-endnote-id: edn29;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
COVID-19 Results Briefing, IMHE, July 21, 2021, available at </span><a href="http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2021/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_30.pdf"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2021/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_30.pdf</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn30" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref30" name="_edn30" style="mso-endnote-id: edn30;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxx]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-delta-variant-and-covid-19-vaccines-what-to-know-11627079604"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-delta-variant-and-covid-19-vaccines-what-to-know-11627079604</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 23, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn31" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref31" name="_edn31" style="mso-endnote-id: edn31;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://mynbc15.com/news/local/some-unvaccinated-alabamians-contracting-covid-19-two-or-three-times"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://mynbc15.com/news/local/some-unvaccinated-alabamians-contracting-covid-19-two-or-three-times</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 22, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn32" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref32" name="_edn32" style="mso-endnote-id: edn32;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/21/1018872469/worried-about-breakthrough-covid-cases-heres-what-to-know"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/21/1018872469/worried-about-breakthrough-covid-cases-heres-what-to-know</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 21, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn33" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref33" name="_edn33" style="mso-endnote-id: edn33;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-19-vaccines-work-against-the-delta-variant"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-19-vaccines-work-against-the-delta-variant</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(retrieved July 24, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn34" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref34" name="_edn34" style="mso-endnote-id: edn34;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Jason Gale and Bloomberg, “This is why vaccinated people are still testing
positive for COVID-19,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fortune</i> (July
22, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn35" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref35" name="_edn35" style="mso-endnote-id: edn35;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/25/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/25/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html</a>
(July 25, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn36" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref36" name="_edn36" style="mso-endnote-id: edn36;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn37" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref37" name="_edn37" style="mso-endnote-id: edn37;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/coronavirus-facts.html"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/coronavirus-facts.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 23, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn38" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref38" name="_edn38" style="mso-endnote-id: edn38;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<a href="https://www.verywellhealth.com/delta-variant-covid-different-symptoms-5191950"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">https://www.verywellhealth.com/delta-variant-covid-different-symptoms-5191950</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"> (July 12, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn39" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref39" name="_edn39" style="mso-endnote-id: edn39;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xxxix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn40" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref40" name="_edn40" style="mso-endnote-id: edn40;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xl]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Jason Gale and Bloomberg, “This is why vaccinated people are still testing
positive for COVID-19,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fortune</i> (July
22, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn41" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref41" name="_edn41" style="mso-endnote-id: edn41;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xli]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn42" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref42" name="_edn42" style="mso-endnote-id: edn42;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xlii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn43" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref43" name="_edn43" style="mso-endnote-id: edn43;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xliii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Jason Gale and Bloomberg, “This is why vaccinated people are still testing
positive for COVID-19,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fortune</i> (July
22, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn44" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref44" name="_edn44" style="mso-endnote-id: edn44;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xliv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-vaccines-still-effective-against-delta-variant-and-more/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-vaccines-still-effective-against-delta-variant-and-more/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 22, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn45" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref45" name="_edn45" style="mso-endnote-id: edn45;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xlv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn46" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref46" name="_edn46" style="mso-endnote-id: edn46;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xlvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/if-more-adults-dont-get-vaccinated-more-kids-will-develop-covid-19#How-dangerous-is-COVID-19-for-children"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.healthline.com/health-news/if-more-adults-dont-get-vaccinated-more-kids-will-develop-covid-19#How-dangerous-is-COVID-19-for-children</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">?
(retrieved July 24, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn47" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref47" name="_edn47" style="mso-endnote-id: edn47;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xlvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://fortune.com/2021/07/22/vaccination-breakthrough-cases-covid19/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://fortune.com/2021/07/22/vaccination-breakthrough-cases-covid19/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 22, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn48" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref48" name="_edn48" style="mso-endnote-id: edn48;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xlviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 22, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn49" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref49" name="_edn49" style="mso-endnote-id: edn49;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[xlix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn50" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref50" name="_edn50" style="mso-endnote-id: edn50;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[l]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn51" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref51" name="_edn51" style="mso-endnote-id: edn51;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[li]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://covid-101.org/science/how-many-people-have-died-from-the-vaccine-in-the-u-s/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://covid-101.org/science/how-many-people-have-died-from-the-vaccine-in-the-u-s/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 23, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn52" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref52" name="_edn52" style="mso-endnote-id: edn52;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[lii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/is-the-covid19-vaccine-safe"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/is-the-covid19-vaccine-safe</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(retrieved July 24, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn53" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref53" name="_edn53" style="mso-endnote-id: edn53;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[liii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/fda-adds-warning-to-jj-vaccine-over-very-rare-side-effect"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.healthline.com/health-news/fda-adds-warning-to-jj-vaccine-over-very-rare-side-effect</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 13, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn54" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref54" name="_edn54" style="mso-endnote-id: edn54;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[liv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 27, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn55" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref55" name="_edn55" style="mso-endnote-id: edn55;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[lv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 27, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn56" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref56" name="_edn56" style="mso-endnote-id: edn56;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[lvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-22/covid-vaccine-truth-side-effects-other-concerns</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 27, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn57" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref57" name="_edn57" style="mso-endnote-id: edn57;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[lvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-because-they-are-more-vulnerable-to-infection-and-severe-disease-tomi-lahren/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 18, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn58" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref58" name="_edn58" style="mso-endnote-id: edn58;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[lviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
</span><a href="https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/8-things-health-experts-want-you-to-know-about-the-delta-variant/2021/07"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/8-things-health-experts-want-you-to-know-about-the-delta-variant/2021/07</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(July 22, 2021)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn59" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="layout-grid-mode: char; margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20College%20Student%20Vaccinations/An%20Open%20Letter%20to%20University%20Students%20Regarding%20Vaccinations.docx#_ednref59" name="_edn59" style="mso-endnote-id: edn59;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[lix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
</div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-47518164598946443792021-07-25T13:40:00.007-04:002021-07-25T13:49:28.224-04:00Da Bear's Perspectives: Wage Stagnation; Income Inequality; The Future of Work<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0gywqQkH_9WbZCBL4cQmn9tVVZdQbFIWRzh7so4i2WSwUGYv_bdAyk7rwcBuXQimdqDEKdGVTrbOoJ3MzXJRkYKnO0VWfxn4bBTbEq4PUpg6uVet-AzmFXhdzX-wMAo1JHsZuDDSbqEAN/s1080/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2-1.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1080" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0gywqQkH_9WbZCBL4cQmn9tVVZdQbFIWRzh7so4i2WSwUGYv_bdAyk7rwcBuXQimdqDEKdGVTrbOoJ3MzXJRkYKnO0VWfxn4bBTbEq4PUpg6uVet-AzmFXhdzX-wMAo1JHsZuDDSbqEAN/s320/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></b></div><b>Da Bear’s Perspectives<o:p></o:p></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: text1;">Volume I, No. 3<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—July 15, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">By Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Associate Professor of Finance, Gordon Ford College of
Business<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Director, Personal Financial Planning Program, Western
Kentucky University<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Financial Advisor and Content Specialist, ARGI Investment
Ser<br />vices, LLC<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">To contact Ron, please email: </span><a href="mailto:bear@argi.net"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">bear@argi.net</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">A Deeper Dive into the
Discussions Regarding Wage Stagnation,<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Income Inequality, and
the Future of Work<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Since 1980 (or even before), it is often argued that two
main trends have characterized the U.S. labor market – stagnating average
earnings and rising earnings inequality. These trends have spurred searches
into their primary causes, have raised concerns about their societal
consequences, and have led to often-heated debate over the appropriate policy
responses, if any. In this edition of <i>Da Bear’s Perspectives</i>, I focus on
topics surrounding the job market – wage stagnation, income inequality, the
effect on employment of minimum wage increases, and which occupations will see
jobs disappear over the next decade – versus which occupations will see severe
job shortages.</p><p class="MsoNormal">As with most
other editions of <i>Da Bear’s Perspectives</i>, this is a longer read, with
more detailed discussion of the issues presented than seen in many of my blog
postings. So, for those who dare to peruse the following, enjoy!</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<h1 style="margin-top: 0in;"><a name="_Toc77160602"></a><a name="_Toc77262817"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc77160602;">Executive Summary</span></a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"> While wages for many workers have remained
relatively flat, adjusted for inflation, over the past four decades, some
evidence exists that the cost to employers of providing employee benefits
(especially health care premiums to the extent paid by employers) have resulted
in modest increases in total compensation to employees over the time period.</p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> While it is difficult to isolate all of the
factors to discern which are the most important, the most important factors
appear to be the rise of the use of automation and information technology
(including, more recently, AI), globalization (i.e., the shifting of work away
from the United States to lower-cost labor markets), and (as a result, in part)
deunionization.</span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> Increases to government-mandated minimum wages,
or other employee benefits, often result in a shift to hiring more part-time
workers than full-time workers. But, over time, it is likely that companies
(due to labor shortages, and realization of the different “costs” of part-time
workers) move back to hiring more full-time workers.</span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> There has been a substantial increase over the
past four decades in income inequality. In the future, it is possible that the
“middle class” will be somewhat phased out, replaced by a high-earning top 20%
of Americans and 80% earning far less.</span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> Over the next decade, many lower-skilled jobs
will be replaced via automation. Yet, a shortage of highly skilled jobs will
continue to grow, especially for those working in information technology,
health professions, engineers, K-12 teachers, and managerial and certain other
business roles. Both employers and employees should consider policies to
address these future trends.</span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<w:sdt docparttype="Table of Contents" docpartunique="t" id="1999845622" sdtdocpart="t">
<p class="MsoTocHeading" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0033cc; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Contents</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b><span color="windowtext" face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><w:sdtpr></w:sdtpr></span></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262817"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">Executive Summary</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77262817 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">1<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800310037000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262818"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">How Have Wages and Compensation
Trended Over the Past Four Decades?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77262818 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">2<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800310038000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262819"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">Why Has Wage Growth Stagnated?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span> PAGEREF
_Toc77262819 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">3<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800310039000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262820"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">What is the Effect of Raising the
Minimum Wage?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77262820 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">4<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800320030000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262821"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">The Rise of Income Inequality</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77262821 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">5<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800320031000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262822"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">What Will U.S. Labor Markets Look
Like in the Future?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77262822 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">6<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800320032000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_Toc77262823"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">In Conclusion</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77262823 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">8<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003200360032003800320033000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:
screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin;
color:#0033CC;mso-no-proof:yes'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--><o:p> </o:p></p></w:sdt>
<h1><a name="_Toc77262818"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a name="_Toc77262818"></a><a name="_Toc77262818" style="text-align: left;"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a name="_Toc77262818" style="text-align: left;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLGv4Py5bDV5eRAAD1nPLpJErdJV0Mwohq7_7ly19mhWpJvhw9qwIE1l0_vHyJGHMftAdS3G4PBgisWBkSVrRlLXwTGx0YbdMTFerB6kg3YpfKBBWmTNj0vuSRT3KU-eYIVaketxWpAMMf/" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img data-original-height="444" data-original-width="324" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLGv4Py5bDV5eRAAD1nPLpJErdJV0Mwohq7_7ly19mhWpJvhw9qwIE1l0_vHyJGHMftAdS3G4PBgisWBkSVrRlLXwTGx0YbdMTFerB6kg3YpfKBBWmTNj0vuSRT3KU-eYIVaketxWpAMMf/w292-h400/image.png" width="292" /></a></div>How
Have Wages and Compensation Trended Over the Past Four Decades?</div><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal">American’s paychecks have barely kept up with inflation, on
average, over the past 40 or so years. As related in a 2018 report: “After
adjusting for inflation, however, today’s average hourly wage has just about
the same purchasing power it did in 1978, following a long slide in the 1980s
and early 1990s and bumpy, inconsistent growth since then.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
The same report, however, notes that “wage gains have gone largely to the
highest earners. Since 2000, usual weekly wages have risen 3% (in real terms)
among workers in the lowest tenth of the earnings distribution and 4.3% among
the lowest quarter. But among people in the top tenth of the distribution, real
wages have risen a cumulative 15.7%, to $2,112 a week – nearly five times the
usual weekly earnings of the bottom tenth ($426).”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">While wages account for about 70% of employee compensation,
per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), other employee benefits exist (for
full-time employees, traditionally) that contribute to total compensation, such
as employer-paid portions of group health insurance, employer-provided
contributions to retirement accounts, tuition and educational reimbursements
and other benefits. As stated in a 2018 report from Pew Research Center, “One
theory is that rising benefit costs – particularly employer-provided health
insurance – may be constraining employers’ ability or willingness to raise cash
wages. According to BLS-generated compensation cost indices, total benefit
costs for all civilian workers have risen an inflation-adjusted 22.5% since
2001 (when the data series began), versus 5.3% for wage and salary costs.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77262819">Why Has Wage Growth Stagnated?</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal">The growth of wages in the United States, for many
occupations, has been relatively stagnant for the past four decades. The
question is … <i>why?</i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><br /></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Market Power / Deunionization. </b>One of the
explanations for the decline in wages is the deunionization that has occurred
in the United States over the past four decades. As stated in a recent analysis
by the Economic Policy Institute, “A major factor depressing wage growth for
middle earners and driving the growth of wage inequality over the last four
decades has been the erosion of collective bargaining.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn4" name="_ednref4" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span></span></a>
As noted in another recent academic paper, “The share of workers covered by a
collective bargaining agreement fell from 27.0% in 1979 to just 11.6% in 2019.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn5" name="_ednref5" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span></span></a>
A 2018 paper argues that the “size of the union effect is substantial,
especially for men” and estimates that “weekly wages would be approximately
$61—or 6 percent—higher for nonunion private sector men if private sector union
densities were as high in 2015 as they were in 1977. Over the course of a year,
this would result in a wage gain of $3,172.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn6" name="_ednref6" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>The Effect of Automation.</b> One recent study suggests
that automation had, by far, the largest negative impact, stating that “between
50% and 70% of changes in the US wage structure over the last four decades are
accounted for by the relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in
routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn7" name="_ednref7" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Automation can occur via the increased use of computers (and
similar devices), or through physical machines. As explained in a recent paper
by Robert D. Atkinson, “Automation is a particular kind of process technology.
The term was originally coined in 1945 when the engineering division of Ford
Motor Company used it to describe the operations of its new transfer machines
that mechanically unloaded stamping from the body presses and positioned them
in front of machine tools. Today, it refers to any production process that is
controlled by a machine, with little or no input from an operator, in order to
produce in a highly automatic way. There are many technologies that can enable
a production process to be automated, but robotics is an increasingly important
one. While there is no hard-and-fast definition of a ‘robot,’ the term
generally refers to physical machines that can be programmed to perform a
variety of different tasks, with some level of interaction with the environment
and limited or no input from an operator.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn8" name="_ednref8" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Automation requires capital, and this in turn may affect
wages. As explained in a 2014 paper, “The distribution of corporate income
between profits and compensation had been stable for decades, but, beginning
around 1980, U.S. firms shifted corporate income away from labor and toward
capital, decreasing labor’s share.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn9" name="_ednref9" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Offshoring</b>. Another factor likely affecting wage
growth, and perhaps a major factor itself in deunionization, is the
international offshoring of American jobs over time. As explained in a 2018 IMF
working paper, “A growing literature studies the implications of international
offshoring, whereby firms perform specific subcomponents or tasks of their
production processes overseas (see, for example, Grossman and Rosii-Hansberg
(2008), Blinder (2007), Jensen and Kletzer (2010), Blinder and Krueger (2013),
and Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2011)). The result could be that the demand for
domestic labor and hence wages fall.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn10" name="_ednref10" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>A Shift Toward Part-Time Employment</b>? Total
compensation paid can be affected by an increase in the number of part-time
workers (often not eligible for many employee benefits, such as group health
insurance and/or employer retirement plan contributions). As observed by a 2008
study in Europe, “the substantial increase of part-time employment over past
decades was also stimulated by the growing labor market supply of women and the
expansion of tertiary activities which rely particularly on flexible working
hours (<i>e.g.</i> retail, gastronomy, health care, domestic workers) … [we
also find that] marginal part-time employment is increasingly used for a wide
range of activities, including high-skilled tasks.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn11" name="_ednref11" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>More Recent) Declines in Productivity Growth. </b>A lack of
productivity growth could explain the fall in wages, according to economist Jay
Shambaugh. “Growth in productivity, which is the output we get from every hour
of work, has been declining in the US, as well as across advanced economies
globally. Labor productivity grew at an average of 2.1% from 1987 to 2004, when
it began falling, according to one McKinsey report. But since 2011, labor
productivity growth has fallen to an average of 0.7%. Still, wages haven't
followed productivity gains in the longer run, according to the Economic Policy
Institute. Productivity is up 243% since 1948, but wages are only 109% higher.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn12" name="_ednref12" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Other Explanations Exist, But Are Debated</b>. For example,
Lawrence Mishel postulated in 2015 that wage stagnation “is the result of
intentional policy choices made on behalf of those with the most income,
wealth, and political power. As explained below, these choices fall into five
broad categories: the abandonment of full employment as a main objective of
economic policymaking, declining union density, various labor market policies
and business practices, policies that have allowed CEOs and finance executives
to capture ever larger shares of economic growth, and globalization policies.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">
Collectively, these policy decisions have shifted economic power away from low-
and middle-wage workers and toward corporate owners and managers. ”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn13" name="_ednref13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Other explanations include lagging educational attainment in the United States
versus other countries, the rise of noncompete clauses, broad employment
declines in manufacturing and production sectors and a shift toward lower-wage
industries,<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn14" name="_ednref14" style="mso-endnote-id: edn14;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and rent-seeking activities.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In summary, is difficult to isolate the causes of wage
stagnation, with multiple factors at play. It is likely that automation is a
significant cause, along with globabilization. Together these, in turn, affect
the trend of deunionization. But other factors are likely also involved.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77262820">What is the Effect of Raising the Minimum Wage?</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal">While many argue that raising the minimum wage results in
lower employment, the actual data is far more nuanced.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For example, in a recent study of a chain of fashion retail
stores subjected to higher minimum wages, the authors found that “a $1 increase
in the minimum wage, while having a negligible impact on the total labor hours
used by the stores, leads to a 27.7% increase in the number of workers
scheduled per week, but a 20.8% reduction in weekly hours per worker … Such
scheduling adjustment not only reduces the total wage compensation per worker
but also reduces workers' eligibility for benefits.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn15" name="_ednref15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">More part-time work may <i>initially</i> result due to
increases in a minimum wage (or increases in the costs of benefits, such as
requirements for full-time workers in larger companies to be covered for group
health insurance, under the Affordable Care Act.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn16" name="_ednref16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Yet, a major factor driving the number of full-time workers vs. part-time
workers is the availability of labor (with more labor available during
recessions, as an example.)<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn17" name="_ednref17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
It can be postulated that, over time, corporate policies often change (due to
labor shortages, at times<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn18" name="_ednref18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>)
and the lowering of weekly hours per worker seen after increases in the minimum
wage is then corrected over time as more full-time workers are hired. Employers
may see cost reductions available through hiring more part-time workers (who
are often not paid benefits), but then employers may thereafter increasingly wrestle
with the difficulties of managing part-time workers (such as higher turnover
among part-time workers,<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn19" name="_ednref19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[19]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
lack of participation by part-time workers in team projects, resentment by
full-time workers in the company, and less familiarity among part-time workers
in company policies – which can lead to inconsistent work quality<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn20" name="_ednref20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[20]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77262821">The Rise of Income Inequality</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal">As indicated previously, about four decades ago U.S.
companies shifted corporate income, with more of the corporate revenues being
utilized to increase capital investments (computer information technology,
robotics, etc.). This led to a decrease in labor’s share of corporate income,
which in turn has contributed to widening income gaps.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNtCpjPF4twnZi9ktMlhDeT7A-RB96lhn4h3MXbdkBvLF1jPJqlxuZOdAAFH84nmx3ohiLY8PdoN3QVRQzUpRBnvO3gbYA8xnhKgPvgUY1lLUEWbu4a2keRtNNVCZAI1MubLoPCaPg4iQ5/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="543" data-original-width="750" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNtCpjPF4twnZi9ktMlhDeT7A-RB96lhn4h3MXbdkBvLF1jPJqlxuZOdAAFH84nmx3ohiLY8PdoN3QVRQzUpRBnvO3gbYA8xnhKgPvgUY1lLUEWbu4a2keRtNNVCZAI1MubLoPCaPg4iQ5/w640-h464/image.png" width="640" /></a></div>Graph source: The New York Times<br /><br /><!--[endif]-->As
seen in the chart above, a declining share of labor income (whether measured
by wages, or total compensation) has occurred since 1980, with labor’s share
declining from 65.4% in 1947 to 56.7% by 2016. And much of that decline has
actually occurred over the past twenty years.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn21" name="_ednref21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[21]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Again, there are likely numerous reasons for this long-term
trend. One is that as technology has improved and has become less costly, firms
move to deploy more information technology solutions and automation, thereby
substituting capital investment for labor.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDawY3U_0W9xJG899vD0CnY8TDxmtLGr_2eptVr_2Q9Kx69QPEhoqP-bzssKvqqI40yRTfsIcWAl_UdgEaYRltnC25cDU8mFbNzDRKjG9BgOpN7fRnOEd3svoPwRmGhShfCc1JxITpKD6k/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="543" data-original-width="625" height="557" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDawY3U_0W9xJG899vD0CnY8TDxmtLGr_2eptVr_2Q9Kx69QPEhoqP-bzssKvqqI40yRTfsIcWAl_UdgEaYRltnC25cDU8mFbNzDRKjG9BgOpN7fRnOEd3svoPwRmGhShfCc1JxITpKD6k/w640-h557/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />Declining
unionization, globalization, lower marginal federal income tax rates on
higher-income Americans, the rise of the amount of the federal estate tax
exemption, and even the financialization of the U.S. economy are all mentioned
as contributing factors.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Analyzing by share of household income, by income tier,
reveals an even starker contrast in the rise of income for upper-income
households, relative to middle-income and lower-income households, as the chart
at right from Pew Research Center indicates.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Such variances in income can also lead to, and can be caused
by, changes in the distribution of wealth. The Federal Reserve provides data on
household wealth for different groups, including broken down by wealth
percentile. The following chart highlights household wealth by wealth
percentile over the past two decades:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEPUw-vNN6gqhSVJULsbu12E7lEB80FgP1d8V7BesOGJSp9D7_gbrPP8TAa7IxEqNinuL5KNN2d2zzvJN-EFTU4WveUpFrqJBKUWgx_B22w4Zv96LKlvBpuc2mHkBIR_4VuABSuh-tuEh/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="656" data-original-width="823" height="510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEPUw-vNN6gqhSVJULsbu12E7lEB80FgP1d8V7BesOGJSp9D7_gbrPP8TAa7IxEqNinuL5KNN2d2zzvJN-EFTU4WveUpFrqJBKUWgx_B22w4Zv96LKlvBpuc2mHkBIR_4VuABSuh-tuEh/w640-h510/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />Not all studies
indicate such a dramatic increase in wealth inequality. The
conservative-learning Cato Institute concluded that “wealth inequality has
increased modestly but mainly because of general economic growth and entrepreneurs
creating innovations that are broadly beneficial.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn22" name="_ednref22" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[22]</span></span></span></a>
Other studies note that transfer payments such as child tax credits, as well as
government entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social
Security, are often not included in estimates of income inequality.<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77262822">What Will U.S. Labor Markets Look Like in the
Future?</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>More Automation; Less Jobs in Certain Occupations.</b>
The impact of automation on the labor force should not be underestimated. As
explained by Robert Atkinson, “To date, most robot adoption has occurred in
manufacturing, where there are robots designed to perform a wide variety of
manual tasks more efficiently and consistently than humans. But with continued
innovation, robot use is spreading to many other sectors too, from agriculture
to logistics to hospitality. Robots are getting cheaper, more flexible, and
autonomous, in part by incorporating artificial intelligence.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn23" name="_ednref23" style="mso-endnote-id: edn23;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[23]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">South Korea leads in the deployment of robots, followed by
Singapore, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and Denmark. The United States ranks seventh
(as of 2017), with only two-thirds of the number of robots per 10,000
manufacturing workers when compared to Germany and Japan, and with less than
one-third of the number of robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers when compared
to high-flying South Korea and Singapore.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn24" name="_ednref24" style="mso-endnote-id: edn24;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[24]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, and other
technologies continue to rapidly transform the workplace. and the continued
development of software programs able to handle tasks. While history informs us
that jobs that are destroyed by mechanization or other technological changes
are replaced by new jobs, history provides only a guide but not a certainty
when predicting the future. Large differences exist in projections of the
percentage of jobs that will be lost in future decades due to automation, AI,
etc.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Certain jobs will likely decline due to automation, but the
percentage of jobs is not likely to run as high as 47%, a commonly cited
figure. A recent McKinsey report estimates 27% of jobs will be displaced by
automation. But many workers in those jobs are made more efficient, with
machines performing an increasing share of rote tasks. As a result, McKinsey
estimates that only about 15 million Americans will need to find a new line of
work – only 9% of American workers.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn25" name="_ednref25" style="mso-endnote-id: edn25;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[25]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Lastly, the benefits of automation will likely flow to
highly compensated, highly skilled workers, and to the owners of capital. As
many more highly skilled workers are needed in the future than will likely be
produced by our education system (see discussion, below), these workers’
incomes will likely be driven higher. As a result, income inequality could
exacerbate over the next decade or longer.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>What Types of Jobs Will Be Lost in the Future?</b> Recent
deployments of technology provide a partial clue, as set forth in a February
2021 report from McKinsey:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in 8pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Our
research suggests that faster adoption of automation, AI, and digital
technologies is likely to be concentrated in specific use cases, reflecting
company priorities related to COVID</span><span style="font-family: "Cambria Math",serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Cambria Math";">‑</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">19.
One example seen anecdotally during the pandemic was deployment of technologies
to cope with surges in demand. This included automation in warehouses and
logistics that enabled companies to cope with higher volumes of e-commerce, or
in manufacturing plants to ramp up production of items that saw demand spikes,
such as food and beverage, consumer electronics, and masks and other personal
protective equipment. Secondly, many companies used technology to reduce
workplace density. For instance, meatpacking and poultry plants, which fall
into the indoor production and warehousing arena, accelerated deployment of
robotics. Service robots have also been enlisted to deliver supplies in
hospitals and room service orders in hotels. Companies deployed more self-checkout
in grocery stores and pharmacies to meet customer demand for contactless
service. Demand for apps for ordering in restaurants and hotels similarly
surged. Finally, companies have shown more interest in using robotic process
automation to handle paperwork and reduce density in office spaces.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">New developments in automation will lead to job losses in
many areas of unskilled labor. For example, automation is being deployed to
pick fruits and vegetables<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn26" name="_ednref26" style="mso-endnote-id: edn26;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[26]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and to remove rocks from farmland.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn27" name="_ednref27" style="mso-endnote-id: edn27;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[27]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Jobs will also likely be lost in customer sales, food service, and last-mile
delivery functions.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn28" name="_ednref28" style="mso-endnote-id: edn28;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[28]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Robotics will continue to change the nature of distribution center / warehouse
jobs, and likely lead to some job losses over time.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn29" name="_ednref29" style="mso-endnote-id: edn29;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[29]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
While it may take many years to unfold, autonomous (self-driving) trucks<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn30" name="_ednref30" style="mso-endnote-id: edn30;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[30]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and cars<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn31" name="_ednref31" style="mso-endnote-id: edn31;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[31]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
may displace many taxi and delivery drivers.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>The Likely Shortage of Skilled Labor.</b> Due to the
evolution of technology, the aging of America (and the need to care for older
Americans), and low birthrates leading to a decline in the number of likely
college graduates by 2030, there will likely be shortages of skilled labor in
the future.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->One study conducted by researchers at the
Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine and elsewhere projected a shortage
of 510,394 registered nurses nationwide by 2030.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn32" name="_ednref32" style="mso-endnote-id: edn32;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[32]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The State of California projected a shortage of
jobs by 2030 primarily in computer and mathematical occupations, health care
practitioners, business and financial operations, and architecture and engineering.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn33" name="_ednref33" style="mso-endnote-id: edn33;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[33]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A recent analysis by the Boston Consulting Group
indicated that “the professions with the biggest looming shortfalls are
computer-related occupations and jobs in science, technology, engineering, and
math.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn34" name="_ednref34" style="mso-endnote-id: edn34;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[34]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
The following chart from BCG’s report is telling:</p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhrVlbB_gKzQrPPTulJBmONUUG_g4B6ylsLquHUgDK066smzurn6ebotwkOcIeo9ztuO4sjufL7FTacGFyo32CkGDt7jbIysWL6kr2dwTRqf8yQqddN9CpiUG8Fm21AWfX4LWo4WdSyVgq/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1364" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhrVlbB_gKzQrPPTulJBmONUUG_g4B6ylsLquHUgDK066smzurn6ebotwkOcIeo9ztuO4sjufL7FTacGFyo32CkGDt7jbIysWL6kr2dwTRqf8yQqddN9CpiUG8Fm21AWfX4LWo4WdSyVgq/w640-h384/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br />
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Another research study concludes that “over the
next decade, employers in nearly every state will face significant shortages
both of workers with an associate degree or some college (nearly 800,000
workers) and of workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher (over 8.5 million
workers) ….”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_edn35" name="_ednref35" style="mso-endnote-id: edn35;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[35]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77262823">In Conclusion</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Recent gains in wages may assist lower-income workers in
particular – at least temporarily. However, inflation may serve to erase some
of the benefits of recent wage increases.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">More importantly, in the future many low-income jobs will
disappear. There is a great need for more Americans to acquire the education
(including all-important interpersonal and leadership and critical thinking
skills) and work experience, in order to meet the demand for skilled labor as
the next decade progresses. Forward-looking employers will seek to foster the
pursuit of education and skills by their employees.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Both income inequality and wealth inequality are likely to
continue – and may even become more severe. The “middle class” – which has
diminished due in large part to the loss of manufacturing jobs over the past
four decades – may likely diminish in numbers further.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This paper did not seek to discuss the potential societal
and other problems which might be caused by income and/or wealth inequality,
nor did this paper explore possible policy fixes to these problems. There are
many disagreements among economists, and policymakers, on the extent to which
income inequality and wealth inequality are problems, and on whether to deploy
policy fixes.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Demographic trends in the United States will exacerbate
labor shortages in 2030 and beyond. Loosening up immigration policies for
skilled workers will likely be a partial fix, although skilled labor shortages
will exist in most developed countries by 2030.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Many jobs may exist in 2030 that are not even known today.
Employees should assess their skill sets and knowledge and experience levels.
Many workers today should pursue additional education to keep up with the rapid
pace of technological changes affecting many job functions, as well as opening
up new opportunities for their own career advancement – especially given the
higher wages likely to be seen for certain highly skilled jobs.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>Until the next time …<o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><i>Very
truly yours,<o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><span style="font-family: "Script MT Bold"; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 107%;">Ron (Da
Bear)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Email: <a href="mailto:bear@argi.net">bear@argi.net</a> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Drew Desilver, For most U.S. workers, real wages have
barely budged in decades, Pew Research Center (August 7, 2018).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn2" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>Id.</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn3" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>Id.</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn4" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref4" name="_edn4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Lawrence Mishel, The enormous impact of eroded
collective bargaining on wages, Economic Policy Institute report (April 8, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn5" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref5" name="_edn5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Hirsch, Barry T., and David A. Macpherson. 2020. Union
Membership and Coverage Database from the CPS. unionstats.com, data compiled
from the Current Population Survey February 24, 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn6" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref6" name="_edn6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Denice, Patrick, and Jake Rosenfeld. 2018. “Unions and
Nonunion Pay in the United States, 1977–2015.” Sociological Science 5: 541–561.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn7" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref7" name="_edn7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo, Tasks,
Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality, NBER Working Paper No. 28920
(June 2021) [“We show that close to 50% of the variation in labor shares (and
measured task displacement) across industries is driven by automation
technologies, including the adoption of industrial robots, specialized
machinery and software. In line with this result, we find a very similar
negative relationship between wage changes and task displacement.”]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn8" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref8" name="_edn8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <a name="_Hlk77243324">Robert D. Atkinson, Robots and
International Economic Development, Information Technology & Innovation
Foundation report (Jan. 2021).</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn9" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref9" name="_edn9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Wind, Serge L., Labor's Declining Share of Corporate
Income: Impact on Income Inequality and the U.S. Job Recovery (May 21, 2014).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn10" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref10" name="_edn10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Yasser Abdih and Stephan Danninger, Understanding U.S.
Wage Dynamics, IMF Working Paper/18/137 (June 2018).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn11" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref11" name="_edn11" style="mso-endnote-id: edn11;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Jacobi, Lena and Schaffner, Sandra, Does Marginal
Employment Substitute Regular Employment? - A Heterogeneous Dynamic Labor
Demand Approach for Germany (July 1, 2008). Ruhr Economic Paper No. 56.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn12" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref12" name="_edn12" style="mso-endnote-id: edn12;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Rachel Premack, 7 reasons why your salary might not be
going up, even though the economy is doing great, <i>Business Insider</i>
(Sept. 24, 2018).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn13" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref13" name="_edn13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Lawrence Mishel, Causes of Wage Stagnation, Economic
Policy Institute (January 6, 2015).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn14" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref14" name="_edn14" style="mso-endnote-id: edn14;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Drew Desilver, For most U.S. workers, real wages have
barely budged in decades, Pew Research Center (August 7, 2018).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn15" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref15" name="_edn15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Yu, Qiuping and Mankad, Shawn and Shunko, Masha,
Evidence of The Unintended Labor Scheduling Implications of The Minimum Wage
(June 10, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn16" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref16" name="_edn16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>See, e.g.,</i> Dillender, Marcus and Heinrich,
Carolyn and Houseman, Susan N., Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Part-Time
Employment: Early Evidence (June 15, 2016). [“We estimate that the ACA resulted
in an increase in low-hours, involuntary part-time employment of a half-million
to a million workers in retail, accommodations, and food services, the sectors
in which employers are most likely to reduce hours if they choose to circumvent
the mandate, and also the sectors in which low-wage workers are most likely to
be affected.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn17" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref17" name="_edn17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>See, e.g.,</i> Jill Mislinski, Full-time and
Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look, Advisor Perspectives (July 7, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn18" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref18" name="_edn18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>See, e.g., </i>Nick Bunker, Mort Part-Time Workers
Are Getting Full-Time Work, Indeed (Oct. 18, 2018)<i> </i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">(observing, as unemployment rates had gone
done, that “[t]he rate at which involuntary part-timers have moved to full-time
status has been rising as the labor market has tightened. The strong labor
market is providing more full-time opportunities for workers and it appears it
will continue to do so. Workers moving from involuntary part-time to full-time
status are not primarily doing so by switching jobs. About 94% of these workers
are moving to full time by finding additional hours with their current
employers. In fact, among this group, the rate of moving to new full-time jobs
hasn’t increased over the current expansion.”)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn19" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref19" name="_edn19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[19]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Saravanan Kesavan and Camelia M. Kuhnen, Demand fluctuations,
precarious incomes, and employee turnover (May 2017).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn20" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref20" name="_edn20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[20]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>See, e.g., </i>Filling the gaps: Pros and cons of
hiring part-time employees, Insperity (retrieved July 15, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn21" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref21" name="_edn21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[21]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Source: James Manyika et. al., A new look at the
declining labor share of income in the United States, McKensey Global Institute
(May 2019).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn22" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref22" name="_edn22" style="mso-endnote-id: edn22;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[22]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Chris Edwards and Ryan Bourne, Exploring Wealth
Inequality, Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 881 (Nov. 5, 2019).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn23" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref23" name="_edn23" style="mso-endnote-id: edn23;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[23]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Robert D. Atkinson, Robots and International Economic
Development, Information Technology & Innovation Foundation report (Jan.
2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn24" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref24" name="_edn24" style="mso-endnote-id: edn24;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[24]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Robert D. Atkinson, Robots and International Economic
Development, Information Technology & Innovation Foundation report (Jan.
2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn25" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref25" name="_edn25" style="mso-endnote-id: edn25;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[25]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> The future of work after COVID-19, McKinsey Global Institute
(Feb. 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn26" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref26" name="_edn26" style="mso-endnote-id: edn26;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[26]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>See, e.g., </i>Warwick Long and Nikolai Beilharz,
'Clive' the fruit-picking robot gets to work in Goulburn Valley to cover
seasonal worker gap, ABC News (Nov. 27, 2020)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn27" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref27" name="_edn27" style="mso-endnote-id: edn27;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[27]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> <i>See, e.g., </i>Akash Pasricha, Smartsheet
co-founder’s latest venture tackles ‘the worst job on the farm,’ The Seattle
Times (June 30, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn28" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref28" name="_edn28" style="mso-endnote-id: edn28;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[28]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> The future of work after COVID-19, McKinsey Global
Institute (Feb. 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn29" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref29" name="_edn29" style="mso-endnote-id: edn29;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[29]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> “Will Robots Replace Warehouse Workers?”, Clarus WMS
(Jan. 12, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn30" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref30" name="_edn30" style="mso-endnote-id: edn30;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[30]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> In January 2021, the U.S. Department of
Transportation, in partnership with the Department of Labor, Department of
Commerce and the Department of Health and Human Services, released a report to
Congress titled “Driving Automation Systems in Long-Haul Trucking and Bus
Transit: Preliminary Analysis of Potential Workforce Impacts.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn31" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref31" name="_edn31" style="mso-endnote-id: edn31;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[31]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Adam Hayes, The Unintended Consequences of
Self-Driving Cars, Investopedia (May 15, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn32" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref32" name="_edn32" style="mso-endnote-id: edn32;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[32]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Jon Marcus, How a decline in community college
students is a big problem for the economy, <i>The Washington Post</i> (March 5,
2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn33" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref33" name="_edn33" style="mso-endnote-id: edn33;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[33]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Making Room for Success: Addressing Capacity
Shortfalls at California’s Universities, College Futures Foundation (October
2019).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn34" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref34" name="_edn34" style="mso-endnote-id: edn34;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[34]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Digital Technology Will Eliminate Millions of Jobs But
Create New Opportunities, Boston Consulting Group press release (March 18,
2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn35" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 3pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Wages%20Wealth%20Inequality%20Future%20of%20Work/2021%2007%2015%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Wages%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work.docx#_ednref35" name="_edn35" style="mso-endnote-id: edn35;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[35]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Tom Lee, Projecting Future Skill
Shortages Through 2029, American Action Forum (July 18, 2019).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-88414684780116121062021-07-21T11:27:00.066-04:002021-08-01T14:50:09.339-04:00Da Bear's Perspectives: Will High Rates of Inflation Return?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNovXT15mSOolJkNvaAWDNlG3SF5DbTWsPXRQwWnHqBg6Yx1fOZWfozero2nT2CuvyHijHbP6VBVbeHquPk6tfMNOi8Ir9fzROM5NlyFYA1I0qWnle9bGC2HX1U93x9FGBZdHx62mEWy2Z/s1080/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2-1.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1080" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNovXT15mSOolJkNvaAWDNlG3SF5DbTWsPXRQwWnHqBg6Yx1fOZWfozero2nT2CuvyHijHbP6VBVbeHquPk6tfMNOi8Ir9fzROM5NlyFYA1I0qWnle9bGC2HX1U93x9FGBZdHx62mEWy2Z/s320/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2-1.jpg" width="320" /></a><b></b></div><b>Da Bear’s Perspectives<o:p></o:p></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;">By Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;">Associate Professor of Finance,
Gordon Ford College of Business<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;">Director, Personal Financial
Planning Program, Western Kentucky University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;">Financial Advisor and Content Specialist,
ARGI Investment Services, LLC<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;">To contact Ron, please email: <a href="mailto:bear@argi.net">bear@argi.net</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Will High Rates of
Inflation Return?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">As I traveled over the past two
months visiting colleagues and clients across the eastern United States, it was
indeed a pleasure to get out. And I had a greater appreciation for the small
things – the laughter of children, the smiles on the faces of often-overworked
servers, and greetings of hotel desk clerks. My biggest takeaway – it sure was
nice to get out and connect with other people again!<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">“Da Bear’s Perspective” is a new
publication designed to offer insights into both current topics of interest to
investors, as well as insights into obtaining the most out of life. I hope to
educate and inform through a “deeper dive” into many of the economic and
capital markets issues. And, at times, I hope to share insights that may lead
my readers to lead more fulfilling lives.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">In this edition, I focus on a
question often posed as I met with colleagues and clients – fears of high
inflation.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h1 style="line-height: 107%; margin-top: 0in;"><a name="_Toc77160602">Executive
Summary</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">Much of the recent rise in
prices – particularly in used cars and housing – is likely temporary in nature.
In particular, used car prices – a major contributor to the past year’s rate of
inflation – will likely fall over the next two years. Home prices will likely
not increase as much, as more inventory from builders becomes available over
the next few years. This suggests that much of the recent inflation seen – 5.7%
from June 2020 to June 2021 – is “transitory.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">However, the surge in commodity
prices (which prices can swing widely over time), and the substantial increase
in wages, suggest that the rate of inflation may continue. The large increase
in the money supply can also lead to inflation, particularly if the velocity of
money (<i>i.e</i>., the rate of money changing hands in the economy) picks up
if interest rates rise (and banks have more incentive to lend). A wage-price
spiral, last seen in the 1970’s and 1980’s, may serve as a trigger which leads
to higher interest rates.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;">In Da Bear’s view,
a 25% or greater chance of non-transitory (embedded) inflation exists.<o:p></o:p></p>
<w:sdt docparttype="Table of Contents" docpartunique="t" id="1441344529" sdtdocpart="t">
<p class="MsoTocHeading"><b><span style="color: #0033cc;">Contents<o:p></o:p></span></b><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><w:sdtpr></w:sdtpr></span></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u <span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160602"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Executive
Summary</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160602 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">1<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300032000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160603"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Inflation Basics</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160603 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">2<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300033000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160604"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">How Has the Rate of Inflation Changed
Over Time?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160604 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">4<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300034000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160605"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Should We Be Concerned About Inflation?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160605 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">5<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300035000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160606"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Is Inflation High Today?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160606 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">5<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300036000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160607"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Is the Recent Surge in Inflation
“Transitory” or “Embedded”?</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160607 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">7<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300037000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160608"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Money Supply, the Velocity of Money,
and Inflation</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160608 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">8<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300038000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160609"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">The Potential for a Wage-Price Spiral</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;"> </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160609 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">9<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600300039000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160610"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">On the Many (Other) Factors Affecting
Inflation</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160610 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">11<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600310030000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoToc1" style="tab-stops: right dotted 467.5pt;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_Toc77160611"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; mso-no-proof: yes;">Inflation and Your Investment Portfolio</span></b><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted;">. </span></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span
style='color:#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span>
PAGEREF _Toc77160611 \h <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span style="color: #0033cc; display: none; mso-hide: screen; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">12<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:data>08D0C9EA79F9BACE118C8200AA004BA90B02000000080000000D0000005F0054006F006300370037003100360030003600310031000000</w:data>
</xml><![endif]--></span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:
#0033CC;display:none;mso-hide:screen;mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--></a><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if supportFields]><b><span style='color:#0033CC;
mso-no-proof:yes'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--><o:p> </o:p></p>
</w:sdt>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160603">Inflation Basics</a><o:p></o:p></h1><div><a name="_Toc77160603"><br /></a></div>
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</v:shape><![endif]--></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDb6lSSBMW58oKKs9tmujZ37q_s78sc7ZfRTcQRakkwVwKAIZ0s88r4QU0b2bRVmC4kxP-Epd5pL8Qnubb3JKCnEWmayRXqjNYHduqzo_ADjGCLZNPu-0UoIU7qK4gNPCvhrVY6O5AJqf/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="401" data-original-width="854" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDb6lSSBMW58oKKs9tmujZ37q_s78sc7ZfRTcQRakkwVwKAIZ0s88r4QU0b2bRVmC4kxP-Epd5pL8Qnubb3JKCnEWmayRXqjNYHduqzo_ADjGCLZNPu-0UoIU7qK4gNPCvhrVY6O5AJqf/w640-h300/image.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><p class="MsoNormal">Inflation is typically measured, in the United States, by
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, through a measure called <b>“Consumer
Price Index for Urban Consumers” (“CPI-U”).</b> CPI-U is a measure of the
average change in prices paid by an urban consumer for a certain “basket” of
goods and services. To determine this statistic, each month shoppers are sent
out across the country to measure prices, and the data is then utilized to
determine the rate of inflation.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As seen in the chart below, housing (the prices of
single-family homes and condominiums, and rents) accounts for over 42% of the
measure of inflation. Medical care only accounts for 8.87% of CPI-U.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<span style="color: red;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgb8NMznYERSHRe-DdvVV69HvwlkGvhH1Lf8IXHS75D7j0KZ1WQ_SY5sRxa3_gW9ODDXnqz-Wsfq9ST2fAYsIc2Azv1CHOjpVNBUYiV7PFze349TRcxmJChCPVTYufYRPBbb1d6TBoTlcN/s1062/Inflation+2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="1062" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgb8NMznYERSHRe-DdvVV69HvwlkGvhH1Lf8IXHS75D7j0KZ1WQ_SY5sRxa3_gW9ODDXnqz-Wsfq9ST2fAYsIc2Azv1CHOjpVNBUYiV7PFze349TRcxmJChCPVTYufYRPBbb1d6TBoTlcN/w640-h368/Inflation+2.png" width="640" /></a></div></span><p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>“Core CPI”</b> is the measure of inflation that excludes
food and energy prices, which can be quite volatile. While policy makers often
pay attention to Core CPI, for consumers CPI-U is the better measure to watch.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Your <b>personal rate of inflation</b> <i>– i.e</i>., how
much you spend for the same basket of goods and services – can vary
significantly from the government’s measure. If your consumption patterns are
different, your personal rate of inflation will be different.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For example, suppose you own your own home. If you have a fixed
rate mortgage, or no mortgage at all, the cost of your home does not vary
significantly, and your personal rate of inflation may be lower. Refinancing a
mortgage to a lower rate can also cause you to lower the cost of home
ownership. However, certain housing costs, such as taxes, insurance, and
maintenance, can still increase over time.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Likewise, if you spend a lot on medical care, and the costs
of medical care increase substantially, your personal rate of inflation can be
higher. For example, health care spending increased substantially from 1980 to
2008, but since then health spending growth has slowed to a similar rate as the
overall measure of inflation.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160604">How Has the Rate of Inflation Changed Over Time?</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The rate of inflation (CPI-U) has been modest over the past
decade. But this was not always so. In the 1970’s and 1980’s, the rate of
inflation was much, much higher, as seen in this chart from EconoFact:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-pyCXUwrgFURSRqM3u9POtscWml1eGbrz2XyWMv2UL4TvCwqCfNQcbiTzl81pqXE1fOjh39WbB715g04_BC_mHBfaRgZG7Bi40yGO03k0dpZJCTGptVFQF9mrp6uSd6YY_VRClfAwtZcD/s2048/Inflation+3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-pyCXUwrgFURSRqM3u9POtscWml1eGbrz2XyWMv2UL4TvCwqCfNQcbiTzl81pqXE1fOjh39WbB715g04_BC_mHBfaRgZG7Bi40yGO03k0dpZJCTGptVFQF9mrp6uSd6YY_VRClfAwtZcD/w640-h426/Inflation+3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Here are the rates of inflation by decade:</b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoscyxwzNe7emtcUClm6wmkQOzSrxAQcQ2ExYEhwDm6_r1eR4h_PyM1A-rSsk3h5Vome_yxWWfI-_zHbjgvygL6WrVi8x8f4AHl19vrksPc6baFSXbbM72M0OxYowW0o8MIltkacQYFbME/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="435" data-original-width="878" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoscyxwzNe7emtcUClm6wmkQOzSrxAQcQ2ExYEhwDm6_r1eR4h_PyM1A-rSsk3h5Vome_yxWWfI-_zHbjgvygL6WrVi8x8f4AHl19vrksPc6baFSXbbM72M0OxYowW0o8MIltkacQYFbME/w640-h318/image.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160605">Should We Be Concerned About Inflation?</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal">Inflation is <i>always</i> a concern. Inflation is the
unstoppable economic force that slowly and steadily drains the purchasing power
from your dollars by driving the cost of everything up over time.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Modest inflation, such as that desired by the Federal
Reserve’s target of 2%, is It only somewhat facilitates the repayment of
long-term debt, provided that incomes increase over time. It also facilitates a rate
of return for savers in CD’s, bonds, and other fixed income investments. A
modest rate of inflation also stimulates spending by both businesses and
consumers, which in turn can drive economic growth. And modest inflation allows
wages to be adjusted upward.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">But very high inflation, as seen in the late 1970’s and
early 1980’s, can be devastating – and difficult to stop – once it begins. High
rates of inflation create economic uncertainty, which can lower investment by
companies. Lending by banks becomes more precarious. The foregoing impacts
(lower investment, lower lending) can lessen economic growth. For consumers,
savings can fall in value (the “real return” – also known as the
“inflation-adjusted return” – on savings can be negative) when inflation is
high. If wages don’t keep up with inflation, “real wages” (wages, less the rate
of inflation) can go lower. And, if a high rate of inflation occurs in the
United States, but is less prevalent in other countries, over time inflation
can reduce our international competitiveness.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160606"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">Is Inflation High
Today?</span></a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;">A high rate of
inflation is present, today, when comparing prices now to prices a year ago.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;">The U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI-U), the nation's key inflation measure, jumped 0.9% in June
2021 from the prior month; this was the largest one-month increase in 13 years.
Over the last 12 months, prices were up 5.4%, the biggest jump in annual inflation
in nearly 13 years.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;">The recent
surge in inflation is driven by many <i>short-term factors</i>, including:</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 38.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 38.75pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Car Prices</b>. The rise in new and used car
prices, due to shortage of computer chips for new vehicles, and the disruption
in 2020 of rental car fleets. Surging prices of used cars and trucks accounted
for more than one-third of the inflationary spike seen over the past year. The
retail price of used cars jumped 10.5% between May and June, following a 7%
jump the month before. However, The prices dealers pay for used cars at massive
auctions across the country dipped in June 2021 after hitting record highs for
much of early 2021, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The 10.5% increase in June in used car prices
was the largest one-month jump in records that go back nearly 70 years, and a
stunning 45.2% increase over the last 12 months. New car prices are also up
5.3% over the last year, hitting record levels.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn4" name="_ednref4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Car prices are being driven up by strong
consumer demand for cars, along with a limited supply due to a shortage of
computer chips needed to build the cars. Rental car companies, a key seller of
used cars, already sold off much of their fleet of cars last year to raise cash
during the pandemic and now don't have enough cars to rent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet, as the supply issues are resolved over
time, car price increases are likely temporary. Expect the prices of both used
and new cars to fall during 2022 and 2023.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn5" name="_ednref5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 38.9pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 38.9pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Home Prices and Rents.</b> Due to low
interest rates, demand from millennials reaching peak homebuying age, and a
general shortage of single-family homes, housing prices have risen dramatically
recently. The National Association of Realtors estimated the rise of existing
home prices at 15.4% for the 1<sup>st</sup> quarter of 2021, from a year
before. New home prices increased 5.1% from the year prior.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn6" name="_ednref6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Prices, however, are projected by CoreLogic economists to only increase 3.4% over
the next year (from May 2021 to May 2022), as affordability challenges hit some
buyers and cause a slowdown in price growth.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn7" name="_ednref7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Soaring home prices have had the effect of also
raising rents, with a bit of a lag present. Data from Apartments.com shows
average rent prices are up 7.5% year-over-year, which is three times the normal
growth rate. CoreLogics’ April 2021 data shows a national rent increase of 5.3%
year over year, up from a 2.4% year-over-year increase in April 2020. Rent
prices vary widely, however, with rents actually on the decline (on average)
over the past year in Chicago and Boston, while even higher rent increases than
the national average were seen in many areas of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and
Texas.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn8" name="_ednref8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
The future of home prices and rents is uncertain, as demand may be affected by
many factors (including mortgage <span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">rates, demographic trends, etc.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 38.9pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 38.9pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Oil prices.</b> The following chart shows the 5-year trend of oil prices:</p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 74.75pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 74.75pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJcrf7V-0L9ykzrST6yfngBFEVEZYpCynKUSSFxB03fBILULl-ybpJlHORhBGRV91LqPpEXe-k7m9jLLcFSU-xtQQwy7OYALbE94nGatFxl0EmeNyJktgKLTfdsMjhZgK0wYG5Q2lv_0a/s752/Inflation+4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="752" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJcrf7V-0L9ykzrST6yfngBFEVEZYpCynKUSSFxB03fBILULl-ybpJlHORhBGRV91LqPpEXe-k7m9jLLcFSU-xtQQwy7OYALbE94nGatFxl0EmeNyJktgKLTfdsMjhZgK0wYG5Q2lv_0a/w640-h402/Inflation+4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div><p align="center" class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">Source:</span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"> Crude Oil Price Today, retrieved
7/13/2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph">As seen, the substantial dip in oil prices due to
decreased travel and decreased economic activity at the inception of the
COVID-19 pandemic has, over the past year, been negated by jumps in oil prices.
This has occurred largely via production cuts by OPEC countries (and Russia),
and by the increases in travel and other economic activity in recent months.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph">Yet, OPEC’s ability to stick to oil production cuts
are in large part unpredictable, due in large part to continued arguments among
OPEC countries about market share.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn9" name="_ednref9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span></span></span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">It should be noted that since July
10, 2020 the number of oil rigs in production, in the United States and Canada,
increased from 287 to 616.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn10" name="_ednref10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Furthermore, the number of crews finishing off previously drilled wells in the
United States has increased this year from 70 to 234, indicating more oil
production is posed to come online.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn11" name="_ednref11" style="mso-endnote-id: edn11;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">The U.S. Energy Information
Administration stated on July 6, 2021: "We expect rising production will
reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of
the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72 per barrel
during the second half of 2021.” For 2022, EIA said it expects growth in
production from OPEC+ and U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply
additions, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to
declining oil prices.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn12" name="_ednref12" style="mso-endnote-id: edn12;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160607">Is the Recent Surge in Inflation “Transitory” or “Embedded”?</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">To summarize the prior section, car prices – which have
contributed one-third of the rise in the Consumer Price Index (year-over-year)
as of June 2021 (per BLS), will likely decline over the next couple of years.
The “supply shock” cause of increased car prices (driven in part by a shortage
of consumer chips) is temporary in nature.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Oil prices are largely unpredictable, due to OPEC politics,
but increased production in the U.S. and Canada may lead to greater increases
in oil production than increases in demand over the next year or so. (<i>Source:</i>
U.S. Energy Information Administration, This Week in Petroleum, July 8, 2021.)
OPEC may, however, further cut production. Or, at time OPEC countries may
diverge due to disagreements on market share, and OPEC countries might increase
production when OPEC nations fail to reach consensus.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Housing prices may be in a “bubble” in some markets, at
present, as the cost of housing exceeds the reasonable cost of construction in
many suburban areas. While housing prices may well continue to rise for another
year or more, at some point new home construction will likely catch up with
demand, resulting in a lowering of home prices. Housing rental rates will
likely increase over the next year, as they are affected by housing prices, but
may stabilize thereafter.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>If we were to stop there, we might assume that the rate
of inflation seen in 2021 – now at 5.4% year-over-year – might fall in future
months, and certainly the rate of inflation would appear destined to fall in
2022</b>. In part this is because depressed pandemic levels from a year ago
translate to artificially higher year-over-year rates, but that explanation is
less sufficient for June. While the base effect hasn’t entirely faded, it is
diminishing. Also, stripping out volatile items like food and energy, “core”
CPI rose only 4.5% year-over-year in June 2021.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn13" name="_ednref13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>However, economists, as well as those undertaking policy
decisions at the Federal Reserve are engaged in a fierce debate about the risk
of runaway consumer prices fueled by ultra-accommodative fiscal and monetary
policy</b>. In other words, vast government spending, combined with low
short-term interest rates (influenced by the Federal Reserve) and purchases of
fixed income securities by the Federal Reserve (which has the effect of
introducing more cash into the banking system – resulting in money supply
growth).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Hence, an even deeper dive is warranted, to even attempt to
answer the question – is higher inflation in our future.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160608">Money Supply, the Velocity of Money, and Inflation</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">According to traditional economic theory, money supply
growth and inflation are inexorably linked. As seen in the following chart from
the Federal Bank of St. Louis, <b>money supply</b> (as represented by M2 Money
Stock) has substantially increased since the pandemic began:<o:p></o:p></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyGOPt8V4yJYyO74S7-6g9XVudnUH-1qZ4ko4b39AN3MB75jKnn7wF3mVeyA0zoiSINItAkzxNJAgcHb2RIhS23u-2rw4orFZzfFaD_4h8yd-lw9rs31zuVR2HWcUf75qXhue_jrudFT07/s1168/Inflation+5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="1168" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyGOPt8V4yJYyO74S7-6g9XVudnUH-1qZ4ko4b39AN3MB75jKnn7wF3mVeyA0zoiSINItAkzxNJAgcHb2RIhS23u-2rw4orFZzfFaD_4h8yd-lw9rs31zuVR2HWcUf75qXhue_jrudFT07/w640-h246/Inflation+5.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div>The "M2 Money Supply," also referred to as
"M2 Money Stock," is a measure of the amount of currency in
circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as
"less liquid money," such as saving bank accounts and money market
mutual funds.</div><div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Yet, <b>the “velocity” of money</b> – the rate at which
money changes hands (typically measured over a one-year period) has declined
substantially over the past twenty years, as seen in this chart from the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (showing money velocity from 1959 through
2020):</p><b><span style="color: red;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP6X0KZUCy1BgI5bqAwhuoX2U3mdcwasvaD1A9jJFUo3LWq4gCbR3LBB-nTqpzCAhDZ_ZCBCqaO-Wneg3hzdRrTpP_G2uTXLLcWE_8qbFzr7iqHFwdfdXV4WMxsr61d13Q2tcfCg3B-Boc/s1168/Inflation+6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="1168" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP6X0KZUCy1BgI5bqAwhuoX2U3mdcwasvaD1A9jJFUo3LWq4gCbR3LBB-nTqpzCAhDZ_ZCBCqaO-Wneg3hzdRrTpP_G2uTXLLcWE_8qbFzr7iqHFwdfdXV4WMxsr61d13Q2tcfCg3B-Boc/w640-h246/Inflation+6.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></span></b><p class="MsoNormal">The velocity of money in the United States is calculated by
dividing the nation’s economic output, nominal GDP — GDP not adjusted for
inflation — by the money supply. When the velocity of money is high, a dollar
is changing hands frequently to purchase goods and services — suggesting that
the economy is doing well. It reflects high demand, which generates more
economic activity. When the velocity of money is low, a dollar is not changing
hands often to buy things — meaning that economic activity is sluggish.
Instead, it is being saved and invested.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To get sustained inflation, we will likely need a pickup in
the velocity of money. In other words, we need banks to hold less in their
reserves, and to loan out that money to businesses and consumers (which is
largely not occurring today, relative to the amount of cash available. And we
need consumers to spend their savings (which is occurring, to a degree).<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So, to summarize – a huge increase in the supply of money is
inflationary, but not so much if the velocity of money has declined (as it did,
substantially, from March 2020 to today).<b> </b>Whether the velocity of money
will substantially increase is unknown, as it is affected by many factors,
although I believe a slight pick-up in money velocity in the second half of
2021 is likely. This, in turn, would tend to favor higher inflation.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But inflation is driven by many other factors, other than
just money supply and the velocity of money (which many economists and
investors have focused upon).<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160609">The Potential for a Wage-Price Spiral</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>In my personal opinion, while the large money supply and
the potential for higher interest rates (and increases in the velocity of
money) are a substantial concern, the largest inflation threat comes from the
potential of a wage-price spiral – which would in turn trigger higher interest
rates.</b> <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Wages across the United States are increasing – often
dramatically. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">When wages rise steadily and consistently over time, those
higher earnings don’t trigger sharp inflation. But sudden and dramatic
economy-wide wage increases certainly can. That kind of fast nationwide pay
raise usually comes from one of two economic drivers — a hike in the minimum
wage or a dramatic reduction in the supply of labor.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 46% of owners
reported job openings that could not be filled, a decrease of two points from
May but still historically high and above the 48-historical average of 22%.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn14" name="_ednref14" style="mso-endnote-id: edn14;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Many companies big and small are increasing compensation,
but even that has not been enough to do the trick. This year a record number of
firms raised wages and benefits in an effort to lure new hires and to retain
valued employees. Large businesses voluntarily increasing their wages include
Target ($15 per hour), Hobby Lobby ($17 per hour), Starbucks (10% increase in
all wages), Costco ($16 per hour), Walmart ($13 to $19 per hour for workers,
with half of company’s employees making $15/hour or more), McDonald’s 650
corporate locations ($11 to $17/hour for entry-level crew), and Amazon $15 per
hour). A recent study found that Amazon’s pay raise resulted in a 4.7% increase
in the average hourly wage among other employers in the same labor market
(commuting zone).<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn15" name="_ednref15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A net 39% (seasonally adjusted) of small businesses reported
raising compensation, a record high. A net 26% of small businesses plan to
raise compensation in the next three months.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn16" name="_ednref16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span></span></span></a>\</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_10" o:spid="_x0000_s2050"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='position:absolute;margin-left:1.05pt;margin-top:51.4pt;
width:490.45pt;height:272.25pt;z-index:251659264;visibility:visible;
mso-wrap-style:square;mso-width-percent:0;mso-height-percent:0;
mso-wrap-distance-left:9pt;mso-wrap-distance-top:0;mso-wrap-distance-right:9pt;
mso-wrap-distance-bottom:0;mso-position-horizontal:absolute;
mso-position-horizontal-relative:text;mso-position-vertical:absolute;
mso-position-vertical-relative:text;mso-width-percent:0;mso-height-percent:0;
mso-width-relative:page;mso-height-relative:page'>
<v:imagedata src="file:///C:/Users/RONRHO~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image017.png"
o:title=""/>
<w:wrap type="square"/>
</v:shape><![endif]-->Wage increases are
not just voluntarily undertaken by companies. Many states and localities have
enacted minimum wages which are far above the federal minimum wage of $7.25, as
seen in this recent map produced by Workest:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: red;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKeG2JtV_wl0PEbf_nhKzkyreuOHPLeXmvjLtdauWAoMErweIxxckw4RHU8RgWJOhqVkgd94lVBM53gvpZYuPsnjzh4hZrc0rjfKYd6I7V7tFyvHXJ9VruR6vr2j5DnoO2UpgHLKbyxtJv/s1498/Inflation+7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1498" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKeG2JtV_wl0PEbf_nhKzkyreuOHPLeXmvjLtdauWAoMErweIxxckw4RHU8RgWJOhqVkgd94lVBM53gvpZYuPsnjzh4hZrc0rjfKYd6I7V7tFyvHXJ9VruR6vr2j5DnoO2UpgHLKbyxtJv/w640-h356/Inflation+7.png" width="640" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To help offset the higher cost of supplies and labor, a net <b>47%
of small business said they raised prices in June — the highest reading in 40
years</b>. <a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn17" name="_ednref17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></b></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>The question remains, however, as to whether the higher
wages recently seen, which have led (and will lead) to increases in the prices
of goods and services, will then trigger further wage increases</b>. In other
words, as the prices of goods increases, will workers demand even higher wages
– which will then trigger higher price increases – which then trigger higher
prices – etc.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>And that is the great unknown</b>. Still, I personally
estimate a 25% chance of wage-price inflation becoming “embedded” in the
economy, and persisting until fiscal and monetary policy changes (higher
interest rates, lowering the supply of money, reduced federal spending, etc.)
bring such a wage-price cycle under control.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160610">On the Many (Other) Factors Affecting Inflation</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal">The uncertainty about inflation occurs because inflation is
driven by many different factors, not just those discussed above.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Several longer-term trends and near-term developments are
supportive of higher rates of inflation:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>A decrease in “globalization” may occur</b>.
The import of low-cost goods has tampered inflation over the past 30 years.
Core prices for goods rose just 18% between 1990 and 2019, while prices for
core services (produced domestically) rose 147% over that time period.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn18" name="_ednref18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
However, will trade wars erupt (including less imports from China)?</p></div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>The labor force is not expanding as rapidly,</b>
and in some areas is shrinking, due to the decline in the number of working-age
adults in many countries. According to a United Nations report, U.S.
working-age population growth will slow to just 0.2% a year between 20202 and
2030, down from 0.6% in the decade earlier. (Increased immigration, if
permitted, could offset some of the labor shortages projected, especially among
skilled workers.)</p></div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Another trend favoring a higher rate of
inflation is the large fiscal stimulus</b> that may occur via
direct-to-consumer payments (expansion of the child tax credit, for example)
and increases in government spending (whether on infrastructure, renewable
energy incentives, or otherwise). On July 13, 2021, leading U.S. Senate
Democrats agreed on a $3.5 trillion spending plan, that will form the basis of
the reconciliation package (that can be enacted without Republican support,
later this year, if all Democrats support the final package). </p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Yet, there are forces present which would tend to lower
inflation, and even lead to deflation, such as:</b></p></div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>An increase in productivity can be an
inflation-killer</b>. Due to investments made by companies during the pandemic
in information technology and robotics, productivity on a year-over-year basis
is at its highest point in a decade. From the second quarter of 2020 to the
first quarter of 2021, labor productivity in the nonfinancial corporate sector
jumped 5.3% while hourly compensation rose 2.0%.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn19" name="_ednref19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[19]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></p></div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>The concentration of wealth</b>, now at its
highest since World War II,<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn20" name="_ednref20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[20]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
can result in less consumer spending. Those who have amassed more wealth
possess a far lower marginal propensity to consume, when they receive
additional income, than those who are far less wealthy. However, with strong
indications that the U.S. equity markets (overall), bond markets, and real
estate markets are all overpriced, a downward correction in prices would
mitigate some of the wealth inequality seen.</p></div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Commodity prices</b> <b>have already surged</b>,
and projections of commodity prices going forward (particularly food, energy) indicate
the potential for lower prices. Commodity price increases appear to have driven
in part by <b>supply-side constraints</b>, which tend to correct over time.
(However, there is always a great deal of uncertainty about commodity prices,
especially in the near term.) Also, by 2025-2030 peak demand for oil might
occur, due in large part to the continued deployment of solar, wind, and other
renewable energy sources, and the rapid decline in the sale of gas-fueled
vehicles expected from 2025 through 2035.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn21" name="_ednref21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[21]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></p></div></blockquote><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
</div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
</div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
</div><div>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
</div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
</div><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
</div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The chief problem facing most of the world's
developed economies today is the level of <b>outstanding debt, both private and
public</b>. Whilst the creation of debt can represent an expansion in the broad
money supply, the destruction of debt conversely equates to a contraction in
the money supply. As all debts must eventually be repaid, debt by nature is
deflationary over time.</p></div></blockquote><div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>In conclusion, while much of the rise in recent wages and
prices appears to be one-time adjustments, there is the possibility of
sustained inflation over the next few years</b>. While the Federal Reserve has
stated that it has the tools to constrain inflation should it continue, there
is a fear that the Federal Reserve is over-confident in its own abilities,
given the historical difficulties seen in bringing past wage-price spirals
under control.<o:p></o:p></p>
<h1><a name="_Toc77160611">Inflation and Your Investment Portfolio</a><o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>If inflation does continue for a few years (or longer),
what does it mean for your investment portfolio?<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Traditionally, commodities have been an inflation edge. But,
increases in commodity prices have already occurred, as noted above.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Another hedge against inflation has been real estate. Yet,
home prices appear to be in a “bubble,” and office vacancies continue in large
numbers. Vacancy rates for industrial properties, such as warehouses, are
already quite low, with rents for industrial buildings already rising 7.1% in
the first quarter of this year from a year prior.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_edn22" name="_ednref22" style="mso-endnote-id: edn22;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[22]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Should interest rates increase, the valuations of growth
stocks will be put under pressure. Value stocks, while not an inflation hedge,
will likely perform well relative to growth stocks, although value stocks are
not necessarily an inflation hedge.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The following investment strategies, in particular, from
ARGI may perform well in a higher inflation environment, should it occur (and
should also perform well, relative to the market, due to overvaluations in U.S.
large cap growth stocks, as will be discussed in a future edition of Da Bear’s
Perspectives):<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Dividend
Select Portfolio<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><b>Defensive Equity Portfolio<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><b>Factor 15 Small Cap Portfolio<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><b><br /></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Note that higher interest rates, often used to combat
inflation, can result in lower returns for growth stocks (as a broad asset
class), in part because future earnings of growth stocks are subjected to a
higher discount rate under traditional stock valuation methodologies. All of
the above ARGI investment strategies employ investment “factors” that tend to
tilt away from growth stocks, to some degree.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Over the very, very long term, stock prices often adjust
with inflation. This is because, as prices increase, so do corporate revenues,
which in turn ultimately drive higher earnings. <i>However,</i> as evidenced by
the performance of the U.S. stock market in the 1970’s, the overall valuation
of stocks can be driven substantially lower should inflation, and interest
rates, rise dramatically. In combatting inflation via higher interest rates,
bond investments are made more attractive to investors, and equities (stocks)
less attractive, leading to potential undervaluation in stocks (relative to
norms).<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Long-term bonds would likely fare poorly should inflation
surge, as interest rates would also likely rise. (Bond prices fall when bond
yields rise.) Short-duration bond portfolios are likely to perform better. A
bond ladder, observant to making proper investments given the present yield
curve, is also a good strategy for the long-term, regardless of inflation.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Inflation-adjusted bonds would appear at first to be a wise
choice. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and I-bonds are issued
and backed by the U.S. government. However, TIPS operate a bit differently than
traditional U.S. Treasury bonds. Investors receive regular interest payments
based on the face value of the bond until it matures. Investors also receive
inflation protection, via a yearly adjusted par value that derives from CPI-U,
the U.S. government’s primary measure of inflation. This changing yearly value
is intended to maintain the TIPS’ purchasing power over time. However, recent
demand for TIPS, which are now issued in 5-, 10-, and 30-year terms, has been
quite strong; as a result, TIPS’ yields are currently negative, with investors
betting that TIPS’ future inflation payments will make holding them worthwhile.
Still, a shorter-duration TIPS bond ETF may form part of a portfolio, and
provide some protection against possible future higher inflation.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Timing the market is difficult, as is predicting future
inflation. Hence, any adjustments in your investment portfolio should
ordinarily be undertaken using a longer-term view, and considering the
consequences if inflation increases or remains low.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>Until the next time …<o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><i>Very
truly yours,<o:p></o:p></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><span style="font-family: "Script MT Bold"; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 107%;">Ron (Da
Bear)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Email: <a href="mailto:bear@argi.net">bear@argi.net</a> <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Dr. Ron A. Rhoades serves as Director of the Personal Financial Planning Program at Western Kentucky University, where he is a professor of finance within its Gordon Ford College of Business.</span></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Called “Dr. Bear” by his students, Dr. Rhoades is also a financial advisor at ARGI Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment advisory firm headquartered in Louisville, KY, and serving clients throughout most of the United States.</span></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">The author of the forthcoming book, <i>How to Select a Great Financial Adviso</i>r, and numerous other books and articles, he can be reached via: <b>bear@argi.net</b>. </span></p>
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
KFF analysis of National Health Care Expenditure (NHE)_ date Personal
Consumption Price Index (PCE) from Bureau of Economic Analysis<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn2" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn3" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Scott Horsley, “Inflation Is Still High. Used Car Prices Could Help Explain
What Happens Next.” NPR (July 13, 2021).<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn4" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref4" name="_edn4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn5" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref5" name="_edn5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Tim
Levin, “Why used cars are so expensive now — and when prices may drop,”
Business Insider, July 12, 2021.)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn6" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref6" name="_edn6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
National Association of Realtors, U.S. Economic Outlook: May 2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn7" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref7" name="_edn7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> CoreLogic
U.S. Home Price Insights, July 6, 2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn8" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref8" name="_edn8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> CoreLogic,
June 15, 2021 release<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn9" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref9" name="_edn9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> BOE
Report, “OPEC+ impasse risks price war as demand surges, says IEA”<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn10" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref10" name="_edn10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Baker
Hughes Rig Count Overview<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn11" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref11" name="_edn11" style="mso-endnote-id: edn11;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Julianne Geiger, U.S. Rig Count Rises in Volatile Week for Oil, oilprice.com
(July 9, 2021), citing the Frac Spread Count provided by Primary Vision.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn12" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref12" name="_edn12" style="mso-endnote-id: edn12;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Devika Krishna Kumar, “U.S. 2021 crude output to decline less than previously
forecast, EIA says,” Reuters, July 7, 2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn13" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref13" name="_edn13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn14" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref14" name="_edn14" style="mso-endnote-id: edn14;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> National
Federation of Independent Business, which represents small businesses in the
U.S., monthly jobs report<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn15" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref15" name="_edn15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Derenoncourt,
Ellora and Noelke, Clemens and Weil, David, Spillover Effects from Voluntary
Employer Minimum Wages (February 28, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn16" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref16" name="_edn16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> National
Federation of Independent Business, monthly jobs report<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn17" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref17" name="_edn17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
National Federation of Independent Business, which represents small businesses
in the U.S., July 13, 2021 release<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn18" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref18" name="_edn18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> The
Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn19" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref19" name="_edn19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[19]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Gary Shilling, “How Labor Shortages Help Profits and Hurt Inflation,” Bloomberg
(July 1, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn20" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref20" name="_edn20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[20]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Ray
Dalio, Bridgewater Associates<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn21" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref21" name="_edn21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[21]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Noah
Browning, “Factbox: Pandemic brings forward predictions for peak oil demand,”
Reuter (April 21, 2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="edn22" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Will%20High%20Rates%20of%20Inflation%20Return/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Deep%20Dive%20Inflation.docx#_ednref22" name="_edn22" style="mso-endnote-id: edn22;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[22]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> CBRE
U.S. Industrial and Logistics Figures Q1 2021</p></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.comBowling Green, KY, USA36.9685219 -86.480804322.127833149421711 -104.0589293 51.809210650578287 -68.9026793tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-33893646385345147332021-07-19T13:55:00.003-04:002021-07-21T11:40:55.640-04:00Da Bear's Perspectives: An Update on Asset Class Valuations<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 24pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfpfk4kkAyx8P88_vSxygf7V2iBnDHL4p_6mr-JuYF4sBahXfpgFi_OIoesxwo4M-x4kkSmaQ3_o8YdLs2b3QWujL1VieoKtjHL6Mc5V8XymTSiFoUN1pOXzv_z-kAijlllbQZPoV2W-nb/s1080/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1080" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfpfk4kkAyx8P88_vSxygf7V2iBnDHL4p_6mr-JuYF4sBahXfpgFi_OIoesxwo4M-x4kkSmaQ3_o8YdLs2b3QWujL1VieoKtjHL6Mc5V8XymTSiFoUN1pOXzv_z-kAijlllbQZPoV2W-nb/w200-h150/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2-1.jpg" width="200" /></a></b></div><b><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Da Bear’s Perspectives<o:p></o:p></span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Volume I, No. 2<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>—July 14, 2021<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">By Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Associate Professor of Finance, Gordon Ford College of
Business<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Director, Personal Financial Planning Program, Western
Kentucky University<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Financial Advisor and Content Specialist, ARGI Investment
Services, LLC<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 4pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">To contact Ron, please email: </span><a href="mailto:bear@argi.net"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">bear@argi.net</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"> </span></o:p></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #0033cc; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><u>An Update on Asset
Class Valuations</u></span><span style="font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">In this
edition, I focus on questions sometimes raised by investors whom I have met
with recently – is the U.S. stock market overvalued? What should I do, if the
market is overvalued?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">As with most
other editions of <i>Da Bear’s Perspectives</i>, this is a longer read, with
more detailed discussion of the issues presented. For those who dare to peruse
the following, enjoy!</span></p>
<h1 style="margin-top: 0in;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a name="_Toc77160602"><span style="font-size: medium;">Executive Summary</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Stock markets around the world have rebounded dramatically
since March 2000, and many stock indexes are at all-time highs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">In particular, U.S. growth stocks are at high valuation
levels, relative to their assumed mean level of valuations. U.S. value stocks
are more reasonably valued, as are value stocks in Europe, Asia, and emerging
markets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Evidence exists that all three major asset classes – U.S.
stocks, U.S. bonds, and U.S. real estate – are overvalued at present.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Reversion to the mean of asset class valuations occurs quite
often. Yet, absent an economic shock, reversion to the mean can take many, many
year – possibly 10, 15, or even more than 20 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Due to reversion to the mean (or partial mean reversion),
lower expected returns for several asset classes are anticipated over the next
10-15 years, or longer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Several of ARGI’s investment strategies appear to be appropriate
as a long-term addition to investment portfolios, and suitable for utilization
in the current market environment.</span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The U.S. Stock Market (Overall) Is Substantially Overvalued</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">According to my own review of asset
class valuations, as of early July 2021, <b>large cap growth stocks are
particularly overvalued.</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">“Growth
stocks” are high-priced stocks, relative to recent or projected earnings,
revenues, book value, cash flow (or free cash flow), or dividends. “Value
stocks” are “low-priced stocks” relative to the same measures. Different
methodologies exist for classifying stocks as either “growth” or “value” (or
something in between, often denoted as “core” stocks).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">“Large
cap stocks” are generally stocks of companies with a total stock market
valuation (i.e., total value of all of the company’s outstanding stock) of $10
billion or greater.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The overvaluation of U.S. large cap
growth stocks has, in turn, influenced <b>the entire U.S. large cap stock universe
to be overvalued</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The overvaluation of U.S. stocks can be
discerned from valuation ratios, of which there are many types.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">This chart of the Shiller CAPE10 [also
known as the P/E 10 ratio, or as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings
(CAPE) ratio], is a valuation ratio that averages the past 10 years of earnings
of the companies found within any country, or within any equity asset class. It
most commonly is referred to as “CAPE10” as it is applied to the Standard &
Poors’ 500 Index, which includes 500 of the largest U.S. companies on a
cap-weighted basis. By using an approach that levelizes earnings over 10 years
(with inflation adjustments for prior years’ earnings), the Shiller CAPE10
avoids large swings in valuations that can occur when corporate earnings
rapidly rise and fall.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">As this chart indicates, the Shiller
CAPE10 illustrates the present over-valuation of U.S. stocks, relative to the
mean:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnFtEdufXV9QlpdMNLc0FwFl6fpONy9kg_46IPOtSIG16OMhn_U8caTmc9-5s2RavYbsR5_11L0n48HWKS8APhJzeVwCR1rVLrkkpJOVcBQeCeT_iJodS8eommgZmhqTbGgHnSiwk2ny_P/s890/Shiller+PE+July+13+2021.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="890" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnFtEdufXV9QlpdMNLc0FwFl6fpONy9kg_46IPOtSIG16OMhn_U8caTmc9-5s2RavYbsR5_11L0n48HWKS8APhJzeVwCR1rVLrkkpJOVcBQeCeT_iJodS8eommgZmhqTbGgHnSiwk2ny_P/w640-h276/Shiller+PE+July+13+2021.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p align="center" class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Source: </span><a href="https://www.mltpl.com/shiller-pe.%20Retrieved%20jULY%2013"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">https://www.mltpl.com/shiller-pe.</span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> <span style="color: black;">Retrieved </span></span></a><span style="font-size: xx-small;">July 13, 2021.</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The historic
mean of the Shiller CAPE10 valuation ratio is <b>16.82</b>.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Due to changes in accounting practices and standards that occurred around 2003,
and other factors, some financial academics argue that a more reasonable “mean”
should be around 20-26.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The maximum
value of the Shiller CAPE 10 valuation ratio was <b>44.19</b>, which occurred
in December 1999. Only in 1999-2000 was the valuation ratio higher than it is
as of July 13, 2021 – when it stood at <b>38.52</b>.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The Shiller
CAPE ratio is a good indicators for long-term forecasts,<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and may be one of the most statistically significant predictors of long-term
U.S. stock market returns.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn4" name="_ednref4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
The following chart, looking at similar valuation ratios done for both U.S. and
foreign markets, shows a strong negative correlation between high valuations of
various stock indexes and future returns, when looking at the future returns
over a 15-year period:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMXZS4GG9aDYkLsYuDXTuwYob4BGJhIdOIu9Sa3DH1IXRiC0DcDY3-SzMJwfHjRv5I66N2xwny9tU05bfcIklTWXVrMAkhd_IHbGPcYNYjj8xgVaXAhVu7jTxKqoF493n48_HJwKMHBrk/s762/CAPE+vs+Future+Returns+Scatter+Plot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="762" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMXZS4GG9aDYkLsYuDXTuwYob4BGJhIdOIu9Sa3DH1IXRiC0DcDY3-SzMJwfHjRv5I66N2xwny9tU05bfcIklTWXVrMAkhd_IHbGPcYNYjj8xgVaXAhVu7jTxKqoF493n48_HJwKMHBrk/w640-h388/CAPE+vs+Future+Returns+Scatter+Plot.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<p align="center" class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Source: </span><a href="https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in 8pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"> The data shown in the chart above is
derived from multiple sources and is assumed to be accurate. Returns shown are
“real returns” (inflation-adjusted), but such returns do not reflect the costs
incurred by investing in specific mutual funds or ETFs, or directly into
equities. The returns shown do not reflect ARGI’s (or any other investment
adviser’s) investment advisory fees. Much of the data above is derived from
country indexes; you cannot invest directly in an index.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Why Have Stock Prices Gone So High?</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">At times the market can appear “manic-depressive,” with
stock market values being depressed relative to their assumed normal levels
(“norms”). At other times the stock market can appear to be euphoric, with
prices quite high relative to their norms. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">In the present case, it appears that a major reason behind
this extraordinary move of U.S. stocks is largely due <i>to irrational
exuberance</i>.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn5" name="_ednref5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> In
this regard, stock valuations (both individually, and as broader asset classes)
can be substantially driven by investor psychology. Investors tend to act with
herd behavior, and as investors pour into equities other investors often follow
them. In addition, other behavioral biases, such as “fear of missing out,” are
often involved in changes to investor sentiment. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Another reason for high stock valuation levels is the
potential role of low interest rates. In traditional financial theory, interest
rates are a key component of valuation models. When interest rates fall, the <i>discount
rate</i> used in these models decreases (assuming all other inputs into
discount rates stay the same). This causes the price of the equity asset to
appreciate, as future earnings of companies have greater value. This is
particularly true with growth stocks, which often have higher earnings
projected farther into the future. As the discount rate falls, the price of the
equity asset should appreciate, assuming all other model inputs stay constant.
So, lower interest rates are often used to justify higher equity prices.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Additionally, low yields on fixed income investors drive
some investors to equities. Many investors conclude that there is no
alternative to investing in equities if they desire to preserve the real value
(i.e., inflation-adjusted value) of their wealth, or to outpace inflation over
the long term.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Another argument in support of high prices is that the
equity markets are simply pricing in a future economic recovery, as more and
more Americans return to work following the recent COVID-19 pandemic.
(Unfortunately, due to the Delta variant and other reasons, COVID-19 continues
in the U.S. in a more limited way, and COVID-19 is still causing serious
economic problems in many countries, especially those in which vaccination
rates are low.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Additionally, the monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve
(via low short-term interest rates, and quantitative easing, primarily) and the
likely fiscal stimulus (arising from a multi-trillion spending package likely
to be enacted later in 2021 through the reconciliation process, to which the
U.S. Senate filibuster does not apply), may spur U.S. economic growth forward.
Indeed, in late June 2021 the International Monetary Fund raised its 2021 U.S.
growth projection sharply to 7.0%, due to a strong recovery from the COVID-19
pandemic and an assumption that much of President Joe Biden's infrastructure
and social spending plans will be enacted.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn6" name="_ednref6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[vi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">As set forth by ISH Markit, this chart indicates that
projections of future economic growth, around the world, are quite strong:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfdwfDVF4mZR3PQaVbeT4rKqgRNSK1xl-Z4dBHIOMJOtyh3kZIVMpNI95JZJ6qMeHgHmU_jheV5X9GZKjV6W0fzEiXlYMLon2i_-05Txh6J6afPyzc_IIgVAeBcssUIeVcb0CtDjlLEnW6/s864/Future+Economic+Growth+Projections.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="864" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfdwfDVF4mZR3PQaVbeT4rKqgRNSK1xl-Z4dBHIOMJOtyh3kZIVMpNI95JZJ6qMeHgHmU_jheV5X9GZKjV6W0fzEiXlYMLon2i_-05Txh6J6afPyzc_IIgVAeBcssUIeVcb0CtDjlLEnW6/w640-h374/Future+Economic+Growth+Projections.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></p>Still another reason, related to
investor psychology, is the rise of the social media hype of certain stocks,
such as Gamestop, AMC, Blackberry, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Clover.
Individual investors on Reddit and Twitter tout these and other stocks, often
resulting in rapid growth of each company’s stock price. A disconnect occurs
between the “intrinsic value” of a stock, and its stock price, as speculation
is fueled. Panic selling of these “meme stocks” can often occur, even at the
slightest adverse news or other headwind.</span><p></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Phenomenon of Reversion to the Mean</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">There is always
a tendency to believe “this time is different.” Yet, reversion to the mean of
asset class valuations, over the long term (15-20 years), is likely to occur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The reversion
to the mean principle suggests asset prices and historical returns eventually
will revert to their long-run mean level. The academic evidence for mean
reversion, over long periods of time, is fairly strong. For example, a recent academic
paper reviewed a large sample of stock indexes in seventeen countries, covering
a time span of more than a century, and analyzed in detail the dynamics of the
mean-reversion process for the 1900-2008 period. They found that the speed at
which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high
economic uncertainty caused by major events such as the Great Depression, World
War II and the Cold War. In essence, large price movements in relatively short
time when great economic uncertainty exists may account for a high mean reversion
speed. However, at other times it can take many years, and even decades, for
mean reversion to occur.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn7" name="_ednref7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[vii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Similarly,
Campbell and Shiller demonstrated that high valuation multiples such as
aggregate book-to-market or earnings-to-price ratios, which signal low current
prices, have been found to forecast high subsequent stock market returns.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn8" name="_ednref8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[viii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">However, mean
reversion is not universally accepted in academic circles.<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn9" name="_ednref9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[ix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Stock price movements occur for a variety of reasons, and it can be difficult
to isolate mean reversion as the cause of movements in valuations of asset
classes when so many variables exist. Many academics continue to favor the
“random walk” theory of asset prices, arguing that mean reversions are not
predictable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Even if mean
reversion is accepted (as it is in many financial circles), mean reversion does
not always occur to the historical mean, as a new mean may be set by ongoing
developments in the equity markets. As a result, predicting the effect on mean
reversion of over-valuation or under-valuation might be tempered by assuming
that mean reversion occurs only partially. As stated by Robert Arnott of
Research Affiliates: “Valuation multiples, yields, and spreads have shown a
powerful tendency to eventually mean-revert toward historical norms. However,
since mean reversion is somewhat unpredictable, our models only assume partial
mean reversion – spread out over the decade to come – in setting our return
forecasts.”<a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_edn10" name="_ednref10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">[x]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Overall, I
believe mean reversion – over the very long term – for broad asset classes, is
highly likely to occur (at least partially, and many times fully). However, I
do not mean to suggest that high stock values today will cause declines in
stocks in the <i>near term</i> (although it is possible). There is very little
evidence to suggest that mean reversion for broad asset classes consistently
occurs over short time periods, such as over 1 year, 3 years, or even 7 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">As seen in the
next section, high valuation ratio levels imply future long-term (15-20 year)
lower return for certain stock asset classes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1 style="margin-top: 0in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>The Expected Returns </i>of
Various Asset Classes</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">There are many
opinions about the future returns of stock asset classes. As you read the
following, be aware:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><b><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The information presented
below represents local (U.S. dollar) return forecasts for several asset classes
and not for any ARGI fund or strategy.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><b><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">These forecasts are
forward-looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of the sources set
forth below and are not a guarantee of future performance.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><b><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Forward-looking statements
speak only as of the date they are made, and neither ARGI nor Ron A. Rhoades nor
any of the firms listed below assume any duty to update forward-looking
statements.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><b><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Forward-looking statements
are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change
over time. Actual results may (and likely will) differ materially from those
anticipated in forward-looking statements.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Some estimates
of <i>10-year expected average annualized returns</i> for various asset classes
are undertaken by several investment firms. This chart summarizes their recent
projections:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S. large company stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>1.7% (RA) (strong overvaluation
exists)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>2.4%
to 4.4% (VG)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>5.4%
(SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S. small company stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>3.5% (somewhat strong overvaluation
exists) (RA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>5.6%
(SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Foreign developed markets:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>6.1% (RA) (slight overvaluation exists)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>6.3%
(Euro are only) (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>4.7%
(Pacific area only) (SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Global equities:<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>5.2% to 7.2% (VG)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>5.4%
(SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Foreign emerging markets:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>7.6% (very slight overvaluation exists)
(RA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>7.3%
(SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Commodities:<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>1.5%
(overvaluation exists) (RA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span>4.0%
(SSGA)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">[Projections above include data from Research
Affiliates (RA) as of June 30, 2021 as derived from its Asset Allocation
Interactive and Smart Beta online resources, and from Vanguard (VG) as of June
30, 2021, and from State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) from its Long Term Asset
Class forecasts as of March 31, 2021.]<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Note that while
the foregoing projections assume reversion to the mean occurs over a 10-year
period, I would again caution that mean reversion has a greater probability of
occurring over a 15-year to 20-year period of time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Not all
analysts project positive returns for stocks. For example, GMO LLC projects, over
the next 7 years, -7.8% annual real (inflation-adjusted) returns for U.S. large
company stocks, -8.4% annual real (inflation-adjusted) returns for U.S. small
company stocks, and -2.7% annual real (inflation-adjusted) returns for
international large company stocks. GMO does project that Emerging Markets
Value stocks will possess an inflation-adjusted annual return of +2.7% over the
next 7 years. (GMO assumes long-term inflation of 2.2% over 15 years.) [<i>Source</i>:
GMO 7-year asset class real return forecast, as of May 31, 2021.]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">From my ongoing
review of several sources of information, along with my own analysis (using
valuation ratios for the Russell indexes for U.S. stock asset classes over the
past 40+ years), I further break down U.S. asset classes by value and growth
stocks. Doing so shows a wider discrepancy in <i>expected average annual
returns</i> over the next <i>10 years</i>, as between growth stocks and value
stocks, and illustrates that we are likely in a “growth stock” bubble:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S.
large company growth stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="color: red;">-1.9%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S.
large company stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S.
large company value stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>5.8%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S.
small company growth stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>1.8%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S.
small company stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>8.9%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 6pt 0.5in; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>U.S.
small cap value stocks:<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>9.5%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-line-height-alt: 1.15pt;"><i><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">(Projections reflect market prices as of the close of trading
on July 12, 2021, and utilize historical and current price-book ratio data for
indexes from the Frank Russell Corporation, with adjustments to future returns
undertaken by Ron A. Rhoades to reflect projected rates of inflation, and
projections of U.S. economic growth, over the long term. One-half reversion to
the mean of asset class valuations is assumed. These are projections made by
Ron A. Rhoades, individually, and are not undertaken by ARGI’s investment
department. Forward-looking projections are subject to numerous assumptions,
risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may (and
likely will) differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking
projections set forth above.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Again – and I
cannot stress this enough - reversion to the mean is more likely to occur over
a longer time period, such as 15-20 years, than over shorter periods of time.
The foregoing projections assume a partial mean reversion over 10 years, which
may not occur within that period of time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Conclusion: Yes, A Growth Stock Bubble Exists</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">As of the date
of this writing, I conclude that we are likely in a “<b>growth stock bubble</b>,”
similar to the bubble in growth stocks (i.e., high-priced stocks, relative to
book value, or sales, or earnings) seen in 1999-2000. The driving factors
behind these high valuation levels include speculation by individual investors
and “euphoria” leading to chasing returns (as occurred 22 years ago).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">However, in
other respects the market environment is somewhat different than that seen in
the “dot.com” era. Today’s “growth stocks” don’t just consist of many revenue-less
technology stocks, but instead are led by large companies with more diverse
revenue streams. Future earnings are of these larger, more established growth
stocks are often projected quite high – and such future earnings are discounted
less due to low interest rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Please realize
that none of these future asset class projections are “certain.” All of the
projections set forth in this document are just <i>estimates</i> of future
returns for various asset classes. But, ignoring the phenomenon of reversion to
the mean can be dangerous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;">What to do now?</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">In my view, you
would be well-served by substantial tilts away from growth stocks, and toward
U.S. mid-cap/small cap value stocks, foreign developed markets
mid-cap/small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets value stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Certain ARGI
investment strategies may be of particular interest to investors, either
individually or in combination, as they tend to incorporate more value stocks
than growth stocks:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">ARGI’s Dividend Select Portfolios<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">ARGI’s Factor 15 Small Cap Portfolios<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">ARGI’s Opportunistic Buys Portfolios<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">ARGI’s SmartCap™ Portfolios and ARGI’s Smartcap™ Edge Portfolios<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Investors
seeking a conservative approach may also consider ARGI’s Blackswan™ Portfolio.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: .5in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0.5in 6pt;"><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Each of these investment strategies
possess certain minimums. Factsheets on each of these, or other ARGI investment
strategies, are available from your ARGI financial advisor.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Two-and-a-half
years ago, I read where a prominent investment firm described the market
environment as the most difficult one they had ever seen. Yet, since then, the
equity markets – like poor Icarus of Greek mythology – have ventured even
closer to the sun. This does not mean that investing in stocks should be
abandoned, especially since no other major asset class appears to be
undervalued at present. But, a discussion of long-term changes to an investor’s
strategic asset allocation may prove to be worthwhile.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Until the next time …<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Very
truly yours,<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0in;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Ron (<i>Da
Bear</i>)</span><span style="font-size: 18pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Email: <a href="mailto:bear@argi.net">bear@argi.net</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Dr. Ron A. Rhoades serves as Director of the Personal Financial Planning Program at Western Kentucky University, where he is a professor of finance within its Gordon Ford College of Business.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Called “Dr. Bear” by his students, Dr. Rhoades is also a financial advisor at ARGI Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment advisory firm headquartered in Louisville, KY, and serving clients throughout most of the United States.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">The author of the forthcoming book, <i>How to Select a Great Financial Adviso</i>r, and numerous other books and articles, he can be reached via: <b>bear@argi.net</b>. </span></p>
</span><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Robert Shiller website, data retrieved 7/13/2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn2" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<i>Id.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn3" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Keimling, N. (2015). Predicting Stock Market Returns Using the Shiller CAPE —
An Improvement Towards Traditional Value Indicators? SSRN Working Paper, 1-39.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn4" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref4" name="_edn4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Jivraj, Farouk and Shiller, Robert J., The Many Colours of CAPE (October 13,
2017). Yale ICF Working Paper No. 2018-22<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn5" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref5" name="_edn5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Shiller, R. J. (2015). Irrational exuberance. Princeton: University Press<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn6" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref6" name="_edn6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[vi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
David Lawder, “IMF raises U.S. 2021 growth forecast to 7%, assumes Biden
spending plans pass,” Reuters (July 1, 2021).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn7" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref7" name="_edn7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[vii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Spierdijk, Laura and Bikker, Jacob Antoon and van den Hoek, Pieter, Mean
Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th
Century (April 1, 2010). De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 247<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn8" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref8" name="_edn8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[viii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Campbell, John Y., and Robert J. Shiller. 1988. “Stock Prices, Earnings, and
Expected Dividends.” Journal of Finance, vol. 43, no. 3 (July):661–676<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn9" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref9" name="_edn9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[ix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<i>See, e.g.,</i> Ronald Balvewrs, Yangru Wu, and Erik Gilliland, Mean
Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment
Strategies, The Journal of Finance, Vol. LV, No. 2 (April 2000), stating: “For
U.S. stock prices, evidence of mean reversion over long horizons is mixed,
possibly due to lack of a reliable long time series.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn10" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><a href="file:///P:/Articles/2021%2007%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations/2021%2007%2014%20Bear's%20Perpectives%20Asset%20Class%20Valuations.docx#_ednref10" name="_edn10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">[x]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Rob Arnott, Jim Masturzo, “All Asset All Access: Long-Term Forecasts Help
Identify Compelling Investments Today,” PIMCO Insights (Feb. 25, 2021)</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-67693115937365884782021-07-15T12:00:00.001-04:002021-07-15T12:01:07.732-04:00My Succession Planning Journey ... My Path to Joining ARGI<p style="text-align: center;"> <i>A version of this article was previously published by <a href="https://riabiz.com/a/2021/5/7/the-story-of-how-ron-rhoades-sold-his-ria-to-and-joined-a-local-37-billion-aum-firm-to-plan-succession-and-to-keep-nearly-a-full-professors-schedule" target="_blank">RIABiz</a>.</i></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">WHEN TRANSITIONS GO RIGHT – EXCEPTIONAL RIA FIRM LEADERSHIP AND A STRONG
FIDUCIARY CULTURE MAKE FOR A SUCCESSFUL RIA FIRM ACQUISITION<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Like many solo personal financial
advisors, I thought “business succession planning” was many years distant, in
terms of my attention. I had attended the sessions on the topic at several
conferences, and I had read many articles extolling the need of older
practitioners to plan for the future. And I had put it off.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Until late last year. The daily
stress of the pandemic, as well as the self-isolation undertaken to ensure that
I could continue to live and serve my clients, led me to explore the
possibilities sooner rather than later. Pressure from my state regulator to adopt
a “formal business succession arrangement” during my last two biannual
scheduled exams carried some weight, as well.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Impetus for the decision can also be
found in the rapid technological changes affecting portfolio management and
personal financial planning. While I served mostly retirees, even my younger
retirees indicated their attraction to online programs that facilitated
collaborative financial planning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">New business models had also exploded
over the past decade, including monthly subscription fee services, and service
via video calls by Certified Financial Planner™ service providers. While I did
not even have a web site, preferring to rely strictly on referrals for any new
prospects, I observed the tremendous growth of firms that had devoted some of
their resources to webcasts, podcasts, and other platforms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">For those few times I met with
prospective clients in recent years, I found that – despite their respect for
my abilities as a financial planner and investment adviser – the prospect
preferred to work with “someone younger.” Simply put, at the age of 63, I was
beginning to feel old.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">As a full-time Associate Professor of
Finance at Western Kentucky University (WKU), and Director of its Personal
Financial Planning Program, I knew that the time to devote to implementing new
business ideas was limited. I strongly considered taking on a junior partner,
and had even identified and had discussions with a former student (in my ten
years of instruction) that shared my values and had skills that would be
complementary to my own.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Then in mid-December of 2020, I
received a call from one of the largest independent RIA firms in our region,
and a Barron’s Top 100 RIA firm (2020) – ARGI Investment Services, or more
commonly known as ARGI. But this wasn’t my first encounter with the company.
Over the years ARGI and WKU have formed a strong bond with many of my students
attending office visits, and numerous WKU alumnae building their careers within
the firm. With our working history, I knew the firm well, and had enormous
respect for its fiduciary culture. After this initial contact, a second call
was scheduled, this time with ARGI’s CEO, Joe Reeves, CFP</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">In the interim, I did my homework and
prepared an RFP. As a lawyer for 35 years, I felt fairly confident handling any
negotiations and contract reviews that might occur. But I needed more
information. So, I downloaded and read Dave Grau Sr., JD’s excellent book, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Buying, Selling and Valuing Financial Practices:
The FP Transitions M&A Guide. </i>Further insights were gained from
valuation and practice sale articles found within Michael Kitces’
always-fantastic blog, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nerd’s Eye View</i>,
and from various stories found at <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">RIABiz.com.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Seeking to “test the market” and see
what other opportunities might exist, I listed my firm as a “seller” on three
websites. This led to over two dozen inquiries, and conversations with several
firms that I thought might be a good fit, including firms that provided
financing to purchasers of RIA practices, which would be important if I chose
to merge with a smaller RIA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">I also spoke with two larger practice
sale consulting firms, and was quite impressed with the services they offered.
I understood the marketplace well, had legal and tax knowledge, and could
present and digest corporate financial statements. Yet, even with all this
knowledge, I believed that I would likely engage one of the firms as the
process unfolded. The services offered by these two firms would, no doubt, help
to ensure a “good fit,” as well as a good price and fair terms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As my investigations and meetings continued,
it became obvious to me that I was not <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">just</i>
looking to sell my practice. I was also looking for a position within a firm,
for the next 14 years, as I had previously established my vision to continue
working as a financial advisor until I was 77 years old. (While working as a
financial advisor to such date was planned, I also thought I would retire as a
professor at the earliest of either age 70 – or whenever my students no longer
listened to me. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I wonder if some students
might have said I should have retired long ago!</i>)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">I was not just looking for a position
to continue to serve the 17 family groups with whom I had deep relationships. I
was also looking for a role within a firm in which I could contribute in a
meaningful way, while teaching nearly full-time while working part-time for the
firm (approximately 500 hours a year). I was also aware that my ongoing advocacy
on the fiduciary standard might dissuade some potential acquirers, while it
might be attractive to others.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">And then I had my scheduled call with
Mr. Reeves, and what a call it was.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Joe, as any good CEO might do,
inquired of me as to what I desired from any potential transaction. I
apprehensively shared my desires – to merge with a larger firm that had more
resources, to be part of a team that would ensure high-quality service to my
clients should something happen to me, and to work for and make a meaningful
contribution to the firm for 14 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">To my surprise, Joe inquired further,
stating: “Ron, I truly believe that hiring great people, and having them in the
roles they are uniquely suited for, is the secret for the success of our firm.
If you were to work for ARGI, what would be your ideal role?”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Joe’s question led me to pause and
think for several seconds. I had mapped out my “ideal job” in my head over the
past several years. I replied, “I believe I am uniquely suited to be an
educator, whether it be in the classroom, or through my writings.” And then I
wondered how my answer might be received.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">We continued our conversation for
another 15 minutes or so, exploring further the details of my passion. I had
researched ARGI in detail, and knew that ARGI had tremendous growth both
organically and through acquisitions of other practices. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">As I delved deeper into ARGI, what
surprised me the most was ARGI’s breadth and depth of its business units. A
large team devoted to developing and managing diverse investment strategies, to
dozens of financial planners, now serving clients through three separate client
service models (from a monthly subscription model for core financial planning
services, to comprehensive financial planning and investment management, to family
office services).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">But as I learned more about the firm,
I discovered entire service lines I wasn’t even aware of. ARGI also included a
large CPA firm, retirement plan offerings, corporate financial education,
charitable trusts and endowments, business management, accounting, insurance,
and even more through all of its affiliate companies. This breadth of financial
services excited me.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">We ended the conversation by setting
a date for two weeks later so he could think through what he learned about my
goals and passions, and perhaps present a proposal. As I contemplated the
discussion over this period, I reflected on my own goals more thoroughly. My
prerequisites included a firm with a strong fiduciary culture, a firm that was
growing in order to create opportunities for its employees, a team to work with
whom I would feel comfortable working with to serve my clients.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">As I furthered my due diligence into
ARGI, I discovered the newly formed ARGI Trust as a division of Advocacy Trust
LLC. ARGI also had a division devoted to private equity. Plans existed to
launch a TAMP within the near future, to provide a broad range of services to
other RIAs – far beyond the boundaries of may turnkey asset management
programs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">My personal reflection over those two
weeks was rewarded in my subsequent call, as scheduled, with the CEO. He
outlined a role for me within the firm involving not only serving my current
clients, but as a writer and producer of educational content for ARGI’s
clients, prospective clients, and financial advisors. Joe also communicated a
very fair offer to me to acquire my client relationships.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">He further suggested I join a team
with two advisors I already knew and respected, PJ Gibbs, CFP® and Jason
Simpson, CFP®, assisted by Felicia Cole – one of ARGI’s Client Experience
Administrators. And, while it would be likely that I visit many of the firm’s nine
offices (from Michigan to Georgia), I would primarily work from an office just
a short drive away from my home in Bowling Green, KY.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">After just a few questions, it
appeared my desire to contribute in a positive way to the growth of a firm could
be more than realized, using my “unique abilities” as Joe characterized them. Having
previously thought through what was most important to me, and seeing that this
would occur, I immediately accepted Joe’s verbal offer. Within a week we had
signed a letter of understanding, with a well-written and fair contract
following.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">On March 4, 2021, I officially joined
ARGI. For one day a week during March and April (as I was teaching full-time),
I received instruction in ARGI’s systems and processes, and had video sessions
with nearly all of ARGI’s business units.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">The client transition process was aided
by a team within ARGI culled together for such a transition. All 17 of my
clients followed me to ARGI. With the semester now over, this summer PJ Gibbs
and I will travel together to visit most of my clients, who reside at various
locations from Florida to Boston to Chicago to Texas. Like me, PJ values
in-person visits, to get to understand clients’ goals and needs better.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">My biggest surprises since joining
ARGI? First, how nice everyone is. There is a team spirit present that somehow
exceeded my already positive impressions of the firm. I was warmly greeted by
so many members of the firm the day I joined, through emails and text messages.
Not surprisingly, the two dozen or so graduates of Western Kentucky
University’s B.S. Finance (Personal Financial Planning) degree program conveyed
to me some of the most enthusiastic welcomes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Second, the insights I’ve already
gained in so many areas from ARGI’s more specialized team members. I’ve
discovered new and better ways to engage with clients and prospects, and to
serve their diverse needs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Third, the receptiveness to ideas
I’ve brought to the firm. While in most organizations a new employee might
hesitate to offer up ideas within the first few months, within ARGI my
suggestions have actively been sought out, several have been adopted, and other
insights I’ve shared have influenced ARGI’s plans for the future. I attribute
this to ARGI’s ESOP, as the firm’s team members appear to all pull together to
look for ideas – from whatever source – to improve services to clients and to
propel the firm’s future growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Fourth, the strong leadership, not
just at the very top but extending down to the managers of various divisions
and offices. Not only is the entrepreneurial spirit quite strong, but the
strategic and tactical planning is executed brilliantly and collaboratively.
Over the years I have come to admire those who have the unique ability to
establish and successful execute upon well-thought-out directions for a firm,
or for a division within a larger firm, and I have already been able to work
with several of ARGI’s very talented leaders.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Looking back, I realized that the
time was right. For me. And for ARGI, having reached the size it had rapidly
achieved, to be able to utilize my passion for education and writing in a way
that positively contributes to the firm’s growth. I look forward to working
with ARGI, hopefully for the next 14 years or more, as I enter this next stage
of my career and life.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">And I wonder how large ARGI will be a
decade from now, as it pursues its vision through strong organic growth,
service offerings to support other RIA firms, and via further practice
acquisitions. All accomplished by exceptional hires, doing roles for which they
are uniquely suited.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">May 2021</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">ARGI, a Louisville-based personal and business financial advisory firm,
is pleased to announce that Dr. Ron A. Rhoades, J.D., CFP® has joined the firm
as a Financial Advisor and Content Specialist.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">ABOUT DR. RHOADES</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Currently, Dr. Rhoades serves as Director for Western Kentucky
University’s Personal Financial Planning Program, as well as an Associate
Professor of Finance, positions which he will keep for his tenure at the
university. As an educator, he has received numerous industry and educational
awards, including the 2020 Gordon Ford College of Business Teacher of the Year
Award.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">Outside of teaching, Dr. Rhoades is regarded as a national authority on
the application of fiduciary standards to investment and financial advice, and
he frequently visits with policy makers on Capitol Hill, the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission, and U.S. Department of Labor. Last fall he received
the 2020 Tamar Frankel Fiduciary of the Year Prize from The Institute for the
Fiduciary Standard. As a J.D., he is a member of the Florida Bar, and has
practiced as an estate planning attorney. Additionally, he has dedicated much
of his time to financial content creation. He has published several books on
financial planning, estate planning and investments topics, as well as written
hundreds of articles and blog posts on the topics.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">“The addition of Dr. Rhoades is another valued asset of academia to the
ARGI team,” explained Joe Reeves, CFP®, and CEO of ARGI. “Through our team, we
are dedicated to industry thought leadership. We want to be a continual
resource for our clients by providing compelling ideas, perspectives, and
education on all areas of financial services. We’re excited and honored for Ron
to join our team, and to add his industry knowledge to a growing base of
financial professionals.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">ABOUT ARGI<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 120%;">ARGI is a regional full service financial advisory firm, headquartered in
Louisville, KY. With the mission of improving lives with every relationship,
ARGI’s team of dedicated consultants provides comprehensive financial planning
and investment management through ARGI Investment Services, a Registered
Investment Advisor; tax planning through ARGI CPAs and Tax Advisors and SCA
CPAs and Advisors; insurance solutions through Advisor Insurance Solutions;
business services through ARGI Business Services, all of which are divisions of
ARGI Financial Group. Trust services provided by ARGI Trust, a division of
Advocacy Trust LLC.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><i></i><p></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-90215032638069590272021-07-07T14:32:00.000-04:002021-07-07T14:32:19.369-04:00Labor Costs and their Possible Inflationary Impacts<p><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"> <span> The following is an Excerpt from </span>ARGI's Monthly Capital Markets Update, July 2021</span></b></p><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="email-page-container" role="presentation" style="background-color: white; border-color: rgb(217, 217, 214); border-spacing: 0px !important; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: black; margin: 0px auto !important; max-width: 602px; table-layout: fixed !important; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 602px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr class="section-block" style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td align="center" height="100%" style="text-size-adjust: 100%;" valign="top" width="100%"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="57" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; max-width: 600px; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="font-size: 0px; padding: 20px 10px; text-size-adjust: 100%;" valign="top" width="100%"><div class="stack-column" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 580px; min-width: 580px; overflow: visible !important; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top; width: 580px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: fixed; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 580pxpx;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td class="text-block-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.4; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 10px; text-size-adjust: 100%;" width="560"><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 24px; text-size-adjust: 100%;">LABOR COSTS AND THEIR POSSIBLE INFLATIONARY IMPACTS</span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 24px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span> </span><br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>Short-term labor shortages exist </b>due to the continued reticence to return to work from the pandemic, continued higher unemployment compensation payouts in many states, and a higher level of personal cash savings.</span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="section-block" style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td align="center" height="100%" style="text-size-adjust: 100%;" valign="top" width="100%"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="58" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; max-width: 600px; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="font-size: 0px; padding: 0px 10px; text-size-adjust: 100%;" valign="top" width="100%"><div class="stack-column" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 290px; min-width: 290px; overflow: visible !important; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top; width: 290px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: fixed; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 290pxpx;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td class="text-block-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.4; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 10px; text-size-adjust: 100%;" width="270"><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;">However, <b>longer-term pressures that have elevated inflation concerns include</b>: a surge in number of workers entering retirement; the decrease in immigration into the U.S. of new workers; high costs of child care; a lack of education and skills by a sufficient number of workers for many of the open jobs; and increases by states and localities in the minimum wage. While the number of employed has increased by nearly 3 million over the past five months, the U.S. still has 7 million fewer employed than existed in February 2020.</span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="stack-column" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow: visible !important; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top; width: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: fixed; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 0pxpx;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="stack-column" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 290px; min-width: 290px; overflow: visible !important; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top; width: 290px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: fixed; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 290pxpx;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td class="stack-column-center image-block-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top;" width="290"><img class="center-on-narrow cd-image image-e7a14b4e8bcb no-img-edit" height="179" src="https://file-us.clickdimensions.com/argifinancialgroupcom-af7va/files/graph5.png" style="text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="290" /></td></tr><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td class="stack-column-center image-block-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; text-align: center; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top;" width="290"><img class="center-on-narrow cd-image image-3a37d1d0aafa no-img-edit" height="181" src="https://file-us.clickdimensions.com/argifinancialgroupcom-af7va/files/graph6.png" style="text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="290" /></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="section-block" style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td align="center" height="100%" style="text-size-adjust: 100%;" valign="top" width="100%"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="59" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; max-width: 600px; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="font-size: 0px; padding: 10px; text-size-adjust: 100%;" valign="top" width="100%"><div class="stack-column" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 580px; min-width: 580px; overflow: visible !important; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: top; width: 580px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: auto; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 100%px;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td style="padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse !important; border-spacing: 0px !important; margin: 0px auto !important; table-layout: fixed; text-size-adjust: 100%; width: 580pxpx;"><tbody style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><tr style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"><td class="text-block-container" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.4; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; padding: 10px; text-size-adjust: 100%;" width="560"><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>Forty-eight percent of small business owners reported unfilled job openings in May, well above the long-term average of 22%</b>, according to a National Federal of Independent Business (NIFB) survey. With over 9 million job openings there is room to hire more workers, although mismatches between skills requirements and available trained labor exist in several industries.</span></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"> </p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>Evidence of a possible wage-price spiral exists</b>. Prolonged wage pressures lead to pricing pressure for goods and services. A National Federal of Independent Business (NIFB) survey found that 43% of small businesses indicated that they had raised selling prices in May, the highest share since 1981. CFO’s of some of the largest global companies viewed inflation as the largest external risk factor that their corporations face.</span></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"> </p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>Certain members of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) appear split about the inflation threat</b>. The FRB’s stated projection for GDP growth in 2022 is 3.3% and 2.4% in 2023, however one board member projected a 7.0% GDP growth for 2021, a substantial increase from the FRB’s stated projection last December of 4.2%.</span></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"> </p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>The official U.S. unemployment rate (“U-3 rate”) declined by 0.3% to 5.8% in May</b>. Over the past four months, employers have added over 500,000 jobs per month. Bankrate’s Second-Quarter Economic Indicator survey indicates that economist’s project, on average, an unemployment rate of 4.49% in the next 12 months.</span></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"> </p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>A decline in the labor force participation rate has occurred over the past year.<span style="text-size-adjust: 100%;"> </span></b></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11.5pt; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><b>The central problem for the decade of the 2020s is the large number of baby boomers retiring.</b> The replacement generation of workers is smaller than the departing generation of baby boomers.</span></span></span><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"> As a result, labor shortages are expected to be more widespread over the next decade, affecting nearly every state and many industries and professions. Business strategies to counter labor shortages in the U.S. include increasing rates of retention, investing in more on-the-job training (or partnering with universities for such), seeking to hire more former military personnel, providing more flexible schedules to highly skilled employees, improvements in corporate culture, investing in technology to reduce some types of workers, and hoping that the U.S. increases its rate of immigration. Labor shortages will increase in most countries with developed economies. Of all of the more developed economies, only India is likely to have a substantial surplus of skilled laborers in 2030 and in the decade beyond.</span></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><br /></span></span></span></p><p style="color: #768692; font-family: "Open Sans", Arial; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="color: black; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; text-size-adjust: 100%;"><br /></span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-72192772296515149792021-06-10T21:32:00.000-04:002021-06-10T21:32:08.855-04:00What Should You Know About Cryptocurrencies and NFTs<p> <b>Bitcoin is at $58,000! An NFT Recently Sold for $69 Million! Should I Buy? (</b><b>As of mid-April 2021) </b></p><p>At times certain new forms of investments attract a lot of attention. Over the past dozen years, Bitcoin, self-described as both an “innovative payment platform” and “a new kind of money,” has certainly been noticed among investors. In fact, over 4,000 cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are currently in existence. But with all this new information, platforms, and currency, many investors are left with questions.</p><p>Let’s start with the basics. Digital currencies, or cryptocurrencies, are stored in a “digital wallet” – a type of online account, in which transactions are verified and records maintained by a decentralized system. Through the application of blockchain technology, transactions are recorded and stored. Digital currencies can be utilized to purchase merchandise from some sellers, often anonymously. There are also “digital current exchanges” that allow individuals to buy and sell digital currencies via different traditional currencies (such as the U.S. dollar).</p><p>Due to the lack of a centralized or regulatory system, most digital currencies are not backed by a country’s central bank, nor is their value backed by the ability of a country to tax its citizens.</p><p>So why do digital currencies have value? Supply and demand.</p><p>Most digital currencies possess a limited (scarce) supply. Take bitcoin for example. There’s currently over 18.5 million bitcoin in circulation, and there will only be 21 million bitcoins that are digitally “minted” and “mined” in the future. This limited supply drives up demand, thus driving up value. Scarcity with perceived value coupled with periods of demand can at times create a frenzy for Bitcoins and drive the price higher.</p><p>Due to this ever-changing, and unregulated landscape, there is no reliable way to predict price. If demand exists, to some measure price can remain supported. When demand wanes, large swings in price momentum occur and the price will fall – often precipitously.</p><p>A crucial point to note is that cryptocurrencies possess no real intrinsic value – a key measure of any investment. Over the long-term cryptocurrencies have not proven to be a good store of value. Prices are driven by supply (often finite) and demand (which varies over time).</p><p>Another digital currency that has gained popularity in recent months are non-fungible tokens (“NFTs”). NFT’s digitize and “tokenize” certain artwork, sports highlights, and even memes. These digital assets can be bought, sold, and traded. NFT ownership and provenance are always tracked by a blockchain.</p><p>In alignment with our investment philosophy, we regard both cryptocurrencies and NFTs as speculative investments. When new investments like these appear with early gains, the stories that follow can often allure investors to part with hard earned funds. Particularly with cryptocurrencies and NFTs, it is common that investors will see high transaction costs to even access these types of investments. Additionally, the volatility of cryptocurrencies and NFTs increase the risk of loss for their entire value. Finally, due to the lack of regulation and information available, ARGI’s evidence-based investment research currently does not support any current allocation to these emerging asset classes.</p><p>With that being said, we view our role as prudent investment managers is to help our clients understand all aspects, risks, and rewards regarding our clients’ investments strategies. If you’re interested in exploring these types of investments, we’re here to help you better understand what these investment opportunities could mean for you.</p><p>One day crypto/NFT may become an asset class that does contain intrinsic value, and could be part of an overall portfolio allocation. In today’s marketplace, there are multiple investment opportunities that possess true value, as opposed to many of the digital currencies and NFTs – which may be mere pieces of paper floating on a digital wind.</p><p>This original blog was posted on April 15, 2021 at: <a href="https://argifinancialgroup.com/argi-insights/ " target="_blank">https://argifinancialgroup.com/argi-insights/ </a></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Dr. Ron A. Rhoades serves as Director of the Personal Financial Planning Program at Western Kentucky University, where he is a professor of finance within its Gordon Ford College of Business.</span></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Called “Dr. Bear” by his students, Dr. Rhoades is also a financial advisor at ARGI Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment advisory firm headquartered in Louisville, KY, and serving clients throughout most of the United States.</span></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe;">The author of the forthcoming book, <i>How to Select a Great Financial Adviso</i>r, and numerous other books and articles, he can be reached via: <b>bear@argi.net</b>. </span></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-87430040590331423762021-06-09T11:17:00.008-04:002021-06-09T11:17:48.744-04:00Will inflation rear its ugly head?<p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">In the past 50 years prices of goods and services have increased substantially. In 1972 a new home went for $25,200, a new car $3,560, a movie ticket for $1.50, and a dozen eggs for 45 cents.[1] Unfortunately, we all know those prices are no longer the case.</span></p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;">For many of us, we’ve become accustomed to inflation. Since the 1970’s, Americans have experienced an average inflation rate of 3.84%. To put that in perspective, what cost $1,000 in February 1971 for goods and services, cost $6,592 in February 2021.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;">At its core, inflation is largely driven by:</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;">An increase in the cost of the raw materials and/or labor used to produce goods and services; and/or</span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">A rapid increase in the demand for goods and services, without an equally rapid increase in productivity or supply.</span></span></li></ul><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">While in 2020 the demand in certain service sectors declined precipitously, the demand for home consumption goods increased. The pandemic caused major slowdowns in the transport of goods which exacerbated supply shortages in all areas of several goods.</span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">For example, oil and gasoline prices have trended higher recently, partly due to cuts in supply but also to increased demand as major economies around the world recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Other imbalances between supply and demand exist. Currently, demand exceeds supply ranging in areas as diverse as housing, semi-conductors, steel, and packets of ketchup.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Additionally, there are the factors of monetary and fiscal stimulus.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Monetary stimulus are the actions taken to manage an economy’s money supply – this would be the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (FED) for the United States. Think back to 2007-09. The FED began to inject massive monetary stimulus to the economy to fight deflationary pressures that began during the Great Financial Crisis. The FED lowered short-term interest rates, and purchased fixed income securities (bonds) in the open market. This action is designed to contain long-term rates from rising due to market pressures.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Fiscal stimulus are the actions to boost an economy through increased spending. To combat the economic impact of the pandemic, the U.S. government added $3.1 trillion in increased government spending and tax credits in 2020. Additionally, in mid-March 2021, the government added a second fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion in Covid relief, including a $3 trillion dollar infrastructure spending package under consideration.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Combined monetary and fiscal stimulus have raised fears among many economists that the U.S. economy will “overheat” and bring on inflation. Indications of that anticipated inflation have shown up in higher yields from intermediate- and long-term bonds.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Another concern among economists is a change in FED policy. The current policy is an inflation target to average 2% a year. This is a departure from the previous FED policy of “price stability” (zero inflation). This change in policy is suspect but it may allow the FED greater discretion to pump up money and credit which to some economists means the FED might permit inflation to run as high as 3% a year for an extended period.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">So, will prices rise substantially?</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">With this monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as the recovery continues, business and consumer spending will likely increase, and more instances will occur where demand exceeds supply and leads to price increases.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">In addition, concerns about labor shortages exist in many areas such as health care and information technology that require acquired skills where not enough trained workers exist.[2] This skills mismatch places pressure on employers to raise salaries and wages.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">The combination of these developments has brought forth fears of higher inflation. Yet not all economists agree. Some argue the stimulus package will stimulate needed growth without undue inflation. World Bank chief economist Joseph Stiglist argues that the FED will be able to tamper inflation by returning to a more normal monetary policy.[3]</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">It’s uncertain whether demand-driven economic growth will in fact spur inflation to substantially higher levels. New economic developments (predictable or not) may occur – positive or negative – that further increase or decrease the demand for goods and services, or which may substantially affect the costs of raw materials and labor. The future of the U.S. and world economy is always uncertain.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">So, will inflation rear its ugly head? Prospects for higher inflation are greater now than they were a year ago. There will certainly be instances of higher prices for some goods and services. Whether widespread and sustained inflation occurs will depend on the extent demand exceeds supply – imbalances created by COVID-19 and its after-effects, including government policies. Future inflation will also be affected by how quickly any imbalances that do occur are corrected though expanded production and the increased transport of materials, components, and completed goods.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">[1] “Remember When” infographic for 1971, from Seek Publishing.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">[2] See, e.g., https://hechingerreport.org/opinion-why-we-must-invest-in-new-innovative-workforce-training-to-fill-a-skills-gap/.</span></span></h2><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">[3] Dan Rabouin, “1 big thing: Stiglitz says Biden’s spending could mean ‘a new world’,” Axios, March 30, 2021.</span></span></h2><div><span style="font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><div><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;">This original blog was posted on April 22, 2021 at: <a href="https://argifinancialgroup.com/argi-insights/" target="_blank">https://argifinancialgroup.com/argi-insights/ </a></span></div><div><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Dr. Ron A. Rhoades serves as Director of the Personal Financial Planning Program at Western Kentucky University, where he is a professor of finance within its Gordon Ford College of Business. Called “Dr. Bear” by his students, Dr. Rhoades is also a financial advisor at ARGI Investment Services, LLC, a registered investment advisory firm headquartered in Louisville, KY, and serving clients throughout most of the United States. The author of the forthcoming book, How to Select a Great Financial Advisor, and numerous other books and articles, he can be reached via: <a href="mailto:bear@argi.net">bear@argi.net</a>. </span></div></span></div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-85086880677516017972021-06-08T11:50:00.001-04:002021-06-08T11:50:52.678-04:00Why would some investors desire the stock market to go down?<p> </p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00aeef; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.8em; font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: 0.16px; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">A Bear’s Paws</h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 600;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(The original of this blog was posted on May 6, 2021 at <a href="https://argifinancialgroup.com/argi-insights/">https://argifinancialgroup.com/argi-insights/</a>.)</span></em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 600;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Why would some investors</em><em style="box-sizing: inherit;"> want the stock market to go down?</em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">The U.S. stock market is near its all-time highs and many analysts suggest it’s overvalued significantly. So, the above question seems odd doesn’t it? Or is it?</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">Investors are optimistic. They put money at risk in hopes it will go up in value – not down. They don’t desire for the economy to decline. So why would they want the market to go down? Simply put… <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">buy low, sell high</em>.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 600;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Why investors might want stocks to decline in value?</em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="color: #5a6e7f;">On Feb. 19, 2015, $1,000 purchased roughly 19 shares of the </span><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/performance/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAjTSD6fPA20iH-H7b0Me5GjRzIb2v8R1OUkX5PJ5ScfLF97uhuDGBRFkl0hg7SjHF4lleGEuMqN2X7hEDveGQTQJUMpa8aUDWfjCryYwIWjEk8ffqMne4W-DsCFWhUcvr0dUH6Rl5V5N2-9H-5L9M2YK9KRkyDsRI57xFzT7EFU" style="box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 200ms ease-in 0s;"><span style="color: black;">Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund</span></a><span style="color: #5a6e7f;">, which is a fund weighted on market capitalization and is the entire basket of U.S. stocks. Now, fast forward six years. $1,000 purchases less than 10 shares of the same fund – this disregards dividends and capital gains which would approximate 2% per year.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">This raises the question: buy stocks at a cheaper value, or later at a much richer price? The answer of course is <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">“I want to buy stocks when least expensive!”</em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 600;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit;">The inherent problem …When is the high? When is the low?</em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">No one rings a bell at the top or the bottom. The stock market can go to higher highs and lower lows. The lows may be temporary and minor. But they also may last several years or longer and may be severe.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">History has shown that to predict the markets direction consistently over long periods of time seldom works.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 600;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit;">So how do you invest when everything seems too high?</em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">Investment is not speculation. In our experience, trying to time the market never works 100%. First, embrace investment strategies that have worked over long periods of time. Second, use a disciplined approach. Third, talk to an investment professional.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #5a6e7f; font-family: source-sans-pro, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.02em; line-height: 36px; margin: 0px 0px 15px;">We believe an investment strategy that considers all available data, your risk tolerance, and a diverse asset allocation can be the roadmap to help you meet your investment goals.</p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-41707182324516646412020-12-31T18:00:00.003-05:002021-06-30T13:41:37.051-04:00COVID-19: A Message to My University Students ... from Da Bear (REVISED DEC. 31, 2020)<div style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></b></span></div><div style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">University students around the country should keep abreast of the latest news about the Coronovirus. </span></i><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In so doing, seek out credible news sources - that rely upon medical experts, not pundits with a political agenda.</span></i></div><div style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><i>THIS POST, originally issues in March 2020, was REVISED ON <u>12/31/2020</u> to reflect new data about COVID-19, its treatments, and information about vaccinations.</i></b></span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To My Scholars:</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I hope you are doing well. As you return from Winter Break, <a href="https://www.wku.edu" target="_blank">Western Kentucky University</a> (and many other colleges) remain "open." Similar to the Fall 2020 semester, at WKU some classes will be held online, some will occur in "hybrid" fashion, and some classes will be fully in-person (with social distancing measures taken).</span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Most students will feel that online instruction is inferior to in-person instruction. As will many faculty members. Yet, our students know that at WKU our faculty have undertaken a tremendous effort to identify "best practices" for online instruction, and to implement those practices in their classes. Let us control what we can, and not moan about what we can't control. Instead, let us all re-double our efforts to learn and grow, as much as the present situation will permit.</i></span></div></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The <span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">COVD-19</span></span> outbreak in the United States is a <span style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">very significant</span> event we are experiencing. The disruption to people's lives continues to be difficult for many. Large numbers of our students and their families have been affected, as have our alumni and so many others.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">I'd like to convey these messages to you.</strong> (I speak for myself, only, and not for my university, in making these statements. But I hope you find these insights and perspectives useful.)</span></div>
<ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>When you are eligible, get vaccinated. (And make certain that your family members, over age 16, get vaccinated too.)</b></span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The best news this Fall has been that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are about <b>95% effective</b> - a very, very high number (relative to most other vaccines, such as those against influenza).</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The vaccines are also<b> very, very safe.</b> There is a 15-minute required period of monitoring after receipt of a vaccination, but generally the side effects are very, very mild.</span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">More study results are needed before the vaccines will be approved for those ages 16 and under.</span></span></li></ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is unknown how long the vaccine will be effective for. Some scientists predict that re-vaccination may be required every few years; others predict annual vaccinations will be required. The data just is not available yet.</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Sadly, the first few weeks of vaccinations appear to be rolling out slowly, as I write this on New Years' Eve 2020.</span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let's hope vaccinations kick into gear quickly in January 2021!</span></span></li></ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Who gets vaccinated first?</b> </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">Each state establishes its own guidelines as to who gets vaccinated next, although most states are following the announced U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guidelines. These guidelines indicate the following schedule for vaccinations:</span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Phase 1a: 25 million Americans eligible</span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Health care workers</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Nursing home (and assisted living) residents</span></span></li></ul></ul><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Phase 1b</span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Frontline essential workers such as fire fighters, police officers, corrections officers, food and agricultural workers, United States Postal Service workers, manufacturing workers, grocery store workers, public transit workers, and those who work in the educational sector (teachers, support staff, and daycare workers.)</span></li><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">People aged 75 years and older because they are at high risk of hospitalization, illness, and death from COVID-19. People aged 75 years and older who are also residents of long-term care facilities should be offered vaccination in Phase 1a.</span></li></ul><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">Phase 1c</span></li><ul><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">People aged 65—74 years because they are at high risk of hospitalization, illness, and death from COVID-19. People aged 65—74 years who are also residents of long-term care facilities should be offered vaccination in Phase 1a.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">People aged 16—64 years with underlying medical conditions which increase the risk of serious, life-threatening complications from COVID-19.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Other essential workers, such as people who work in transportation and logistics, food service, housing construction and finance, information technology, communications, energy, law, media, public safety, and public health.</span></li></ul><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The foregoing are pretty large groups. And other groupings may exist thereafter.<i> If you are college-age (18-24 or so) and don't possess an underlying health condition that elevates you to a different grouping, don't expect to be eligible to be vaccinated until April, May or even June. (But let's hope the roll-out occurs faster!)</i></span></li></ul></ul></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span style="font-style: inherit;">If you are opposed to vaccinations, or mask-wearing, or social distancing, I ask that </span>you engage in critical thinking and to re-examine your beliefs. </b></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">What does this involve?</span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit;">First, ignore the typical news outlets, social media sources, and other </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">information you typically might be receiving. There is a lot of <i>disinformation</i> out there in our modern society, much of it pushed out by those with political agendas, people who desire attention, and others.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">Second, seek out </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><i>reliable information </i>from health care providers, scientists, and other trusted sources. (If we don't place at least some trust in those who take care of us when we are ill, and in science, who is left? Do we instead trust speculation, superstition, or blindly follow the many prognosticators who seem to seek out attention? I hope not.)</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit;">Third, consider taking on this as a "personal assignment" - argue both sides of the position you are </span>taking<span style="font-style: inherit;">. Look for the evidence that supports the </span>opposite<span style="font-style: inherit;"> of your own beliefs, and then compare that to the evidence that supports your own view. In other words, challenge yourself to closely examine the evidence from all sides.</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit;">CRITICAL THINKING is an essential skill - in the world of business, and in all areas of life. We should constantly invite new information that challenges our beliefs. We </span>should<span style="font-style: inherit;"> all seek to understand the arguments of "the other side."</span></span></li></ul></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit;">Just because you are young does not mean that you can't die from the Coronavirus. But deaths among those under the age of 30 - while they can happen - are relatively rare.</b><span style="font-style: inherit;"> In fact, for those in the U.S. ages 20-24, the mortality (death rate) is only 6 in 100,000 (a bit more for males, a bit less for females). Here are some statistics from a November 2020 study appearing in </span><i>Nature</i><span style="font-style: inherit;">, a leading scientific publication:</span></span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit;">Mortality (death) rates among those infected are less than 1% for those under age 65, and </span>only<span style="font-style: inherit;"> about 0.01% for those ages 20-24.</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit;">But, mortality rates climb dramatically for older persons who contract COVID-19. Those ages 65-69 who contract COVID-19, for example, have about a 1.1% of dying. And those who are even older have dramatically higher death rates.</span></span></li></ul></ul><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><div><img height="640" src="https://www.acsh.org/sites/default/files/covid%20infection%20fatality%20rate%20death%20rate%20by%20age%20sex_0.png" width="521" /></div></span><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="orphans: 2; text-align: left; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Source:</i> O’Driscoll, M. et al. "Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2." Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2918-0 (2020).</span></div></blockquote><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">HOWEVER, those with hypertension (high blood pressure), diabetes</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">, cardiovascular disease, COPD or chronic respiratory difficulties of any kind,</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"> cancer, and other underlying health care conditions may possess significantly higher mortality rates.</span></b></li></ul></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-style: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Mortality rates vary by race. </strong></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">COVID-19 death rates among confirmed or probable cases, according to a </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;"><i>Washington State Department of Health</i> study published on </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;">December 23, 2020:</span></li></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"></span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">White populations have the lowest death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases of all race/ethnicity groups.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">NHOPI (Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander) populations have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are six times higher than white populations.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are four times higher than whites.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Hispanic populations have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are four times higher than whites.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Black populations have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are about twice as high as white populations.</span></li></ul></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><b style="font-style: inherit;">Mortality rates have declined since early 2020. </b><span style="font-style: inherit;">According to a Nov. 17, 2020 article appearing at MedToday, titled "</span>Here's Why COVID-19 Mortality Has Dropped," The "COVID-19 mortality rate in the U.S. has fallen since the start of the pandemic. That decline has no single, clear explanation, but experts have pointed to a host of contributing factors, including a higher proportion of cases among the young, increased knowledge of how to treat COVID patients, better therapies, and less overcrowding in hospitals."</span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Yet, the number of those who are dying has increased this Fall and Winter, as the number of cases has surged.</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">In some parts of the country, overburdened hospitals will likely result in higher mortality rates than would otherwise be seen ... there are shortages of doctors, nurses, and other health care workers in several parts of the country, and a shortage of hospital beds in some areas as well.</span></span><b style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;"> </b></li></ul></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-style: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Even if you don't die from COVID-19, for many (including college students) who get the disease, the symptoms can be severe, and last longer than the typical flu (or even weeks, or months). </strong><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">I have been told by several 20-somethings who contracted the disease that they experienced a most of symptoms, for several days or longer, that made the typical "flu" look more like the "common cold." While others have had few symptoms, or only some symptoms for a few days.</span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"></span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><b>People with these symptoms may have COVID-19:</b></i></span></li><ul><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Fever or chills</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Cough</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Fatigue</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Muscle or body aches</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Headache</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">New loss of taste or smell</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Sore throat</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Congestion or runny nose</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Nausea or vomiting</span></li><li><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Diarrhea</span></li></ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"></span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><b>Look for emergency warning signs for COVID-19. If someone is showing any of these signs, seek emergency medical care immediately:</b></i></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Trouble breathing</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Persistent pain or pressure in the chest</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New confusion</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Inability to wake or stay awake</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Bluish lips or face</span></li></ul><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: bold;"> </span></span></ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-style: inherit;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Stay at home, unless it is required that you go to work, classes, etc. </strong></span><ul style="border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is very, very easy to catch COVID-19.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The "peak" of infections will likely occur sometime in January 2021. But it won't be until late April, or May or even June, before the incidence of infections drops quite low.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-style: inherit;"><b>A new variant of the virus, originating (it is believed) in the United Kingdom, has found its way to parts of the U.S.</b></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-style: inherit;">Preliminary data suggests that this variant of COVID-19 is more </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">transmissible. If this is true, it could increase the number of cases in the U.S. throughout early 2021, and perhaps into mid-2021.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, the same data suggests that this variant does not increase mortality risk, and also that the current vaccinations are likely to be as effective against the variant as other strains already existing.</span></li></ul>
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<ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The only way to slow the transmission of the <span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Coronovirus</span></span> throughout the U.S. is for most of us to "hunker down."</span></strong><ul style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style: disc; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Don't become infected.</span></span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Even if you have no or mild symptoms, you could easily transmit the disease to others, who may not be so fortunate.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I know you want to socialize. I know the past many months have been frustrating. But, several more months of patience are required. Unless you are required to go out ...</span><ul style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: square; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Stay home.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: square; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">STAY HOME.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: square; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">S T A Y H O M E.</span></li>
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<ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">If you have already been infected ...</strong></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">The data simply is not in as to whether you can transmit COVID-19 to others; it </span><span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><i>might</i> be possible to be a carrier of the virus in your upper respiratory tract, even though you have antibodies to fight off any new infections. Science has not yet answered this question. So ... wear a mask! And continue to isolate.</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Can you get infected again? It is very rate - at least for several months after getting COVID-19.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Should you get vaccinated? Yes. The vaccine increases a certain antibody in your body by 200 TIMES the number of antibodies you possess from having earlier contracted the disease. And the antibodies generated by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more likely to be effective (at least for several years, scientists hope) against new variants of the disease.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit;"> </span></li></ul></ul><ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Should you run errands for others, who are older or who have underlying health conditions? (Probably ... but will you catch COVID-19 and bring it back with you?)</strong></span><ul style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style: disc; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none;">
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Discuss this with your family.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It would be better to have groceries, necessaries, etc. - delivered to your home, than to have you go out.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Again, your "mortality risk" is NOT zero, even if you age 21 and in excellent health.</span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">If you do catch COVID-19, you may be "asymptomatic," or you may be one of those who have horrible symptoms - lasting for days (or weeks, and in a few cases many months).</li></ul></ul></li></ul>
<ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-align: left; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><b style="font-style: inherit; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Engage in good behaviors.</span></b></li>
<ul>
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-style: inherit; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Wear a mask. To protect you, and to protect others.</span></span></li><ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let me repeat this ... WEAR A MASK whenever you are around those not in your household.</span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let me repeat ... W E A R A M A S K.</span></li></ul><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-style: inherit; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Maintain distance from other people, when out and about. 6-7 feet when outside, if at all possible.</span></span></li><li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-style: inherit; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Wash your hands before and after each meal, and several other times each day. With soap. For 20 seconds. Rinse thoroughly.</span></span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><b style="font-style: inherit; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Try not to go out. Hunker down!</span></b></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Stay informed</b>.</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Educate yourself about appropriate actions you should be taking, to protect both you and your family and other loved ones.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Seek out trusted sources of online information.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 1em 0px; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;">
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; text-shadow: none;">Encountering Difficulties? Concerns? Questions? Or Don't Know Where to Turn?</b><span style="font-style: inherit;"> Email or call </span><span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Da</span></span><span style="font-style: inherit;"> Bear.</span><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;" /></strong></span><ul style="border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; text-shadow: none;">
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">No one should be forced to drop out from college due to financial or other difficulties you may encounter from COVID-19. If you are encountering such difficulties, and don't know where to turn, let me know. I'll try my best to find a solution for you.</span></i></span></span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Don't panic.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Do take prudent, measured actions.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>These are stressful times. If you have an issue you would like to talk over, I'm here for you.</i></span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; list-style-position: outside; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">Email (preferred): ron</span></span>.<span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">rhoades</span></span>@<span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">wku</span></span>.<span class="mceItemHidden" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span class="mceItemHiddenSpellWord" style="background-image: url("https://www.blogger.com/img/wline.gif"); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border: 0px; cursor: default; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;">edu</span></span></b></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>TAKE THE ACTIONS NECESSARY TO BE SAFE.</i> </span></div><div style="border: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> Take care. - Bear</span></div>
Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-84256365922995770942020-12-29T17:06:00.108-05:002021-06-08T11:22:23.633-04:00Special Update 12/29/2020: The Economy; Projected Long-Term Returns of Various Asset Classes; Bond Yields; Changes to Several of DFA Funds and Its Launch of ETFs<p> <b><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></i></b></p><style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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@page WordSection1
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margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;
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div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
/* List Definitions */
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margin-left:2.3in;
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@list l4
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margin-left:1.05in;
text-indent:-.25in;}
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text-indent:-.25in;}
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margin-left:.55in;
text-indent:-.25in;}
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{mso-level-number-format:alpha-lower;
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{mso-level-number-format:roman-lower;
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text-indent:-.25in;}
@list l6:level4
{mso-level-text:"\(%4\)";
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mso-level-number-position:left;
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text-indent:-.25in;}
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{mso-level-number-format:alpha-lower;
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@list l6:level6
{mso-level-number-format:roman-lower;
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{mso-level-number-format:roman-lower;
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@list l7:level7
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{mso-level-number-format:roman-lower;
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margin-left:49.5pt;
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@list l8:level9
{mso-level-number-format:roman-lower;
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@list l9
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</style><div style="border: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 21.4667px;">December 29, 2020<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: yellow; font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">A </span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">SCHOLAR FINANCIAL SPECIAL REPORT</span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">PART TWO:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">THE ECONOMY AND THE CAPITAL MARKETS;<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">AN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO FOR THE FUTURE<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">From Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">E-mail: </span></b><a href="mailto:ron@scholarfinancial.com"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">ron@scholarfinancial.com</span></a><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> (clients and prospective clients only)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">E-mail: </span></b><a href="mailto:ron.rhoades@wku.edu"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">ron.rhoades@wku.edu</span></a><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> (students, family, colleagues, friends)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Tuesday, December 29, 2020<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 12pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Dear Clients, Students, Family and Friends:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In Part One of my <i>Special Report</i>, delivered a few weeks ago, I conveyed information about COVID-19, and sought to answer some questions regarding vaccinations. Obviously, the impact of COVID-19 on our U.S. economy and global economy has been severe, and further economic downturns are likely during the long Winter and Spring of 2020-2021. Yet, as discussed, we can hope that the pandemic will largely be behind us by the summer of 2021, and that economic activity will increase over time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In today’s <i>Part Two</i> of my <i>Special Report</i>, I address the impact of the pandemic on the U.S. economy and global economy, and look forward beyond the near-term impacts to discuss longer-term expected developments. I also touch on the uncertainty caused by mutations to the COVID-19 virus.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I then explore the future returns of various asset classes, showing that the U.S. stock market is overvalued by a tremendous amount, but that most of this overvaluation occurs in “growth stocks.” (The equity portion of my clients’ portfolios is tilted toward “value” stocks.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I also discuss changes occurring with several mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from Dimensional Funds Advisors, that will bring lower fees as well as greater tax-efficiencies to some of my clients.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01; caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>TABLE OF CONTENTS</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>A. <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">THE U.S. AND GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE NEAR TERM</span></u></b></span></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>1. Will the “rebound” be “V-shaped” or “U-shaped” or something else?</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>2. Service Businesses, Especially Small Ones, Have Been Hit the Hardest</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>3. Unemployment, and Unemployment Benefits.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>4. Economic Activity to Rebound in 2021?</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>5. Perspective on the Threats from COVID-19 Mutations.</u></b></span></span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>B. <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING THE ECONOMY IN THE LONG TERM</span></u></b></span></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>1) Increased Corporate Cash Holdings.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>2) Shift of Working from Large Cities to Rural Areas.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>3) Decrease in Birth Rates – U.S. and Globally.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>4) A Greater Understanding that In-Person Education is Optimal, for Many Students.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>5) Increase in Productivity, Via Application of Technologies.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>6) Wealth Inequality, Wealth Used to Influence Public Policy – and Their Dangers.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>7) Positive Long-Term Trends.</u></b></span></span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>C. <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">THE FUTURE PROJECTED LONG-TERM RETURNS OF STOCK ASSET CLASSES</span></u></b></span></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>1) In Summary, The Expected Long-Term Returns of Some Stock Asset Classes Appear Favorable, but the Prospects of Positive Returns in Other Stock Asset Classes Appear to be Quite Dismal.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>2) On the Analytical Foundations of These Projected Returns, and the Inherent Uncertainties Present in Projecting 10-Year and 15-Year Asset Class Returns</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>3) Investment Asset Class Return Projections (by Ron, and by Others)</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>4) U.S. Large Cap Stock Valuations: The Shiller CAPE10 Ratio Indicates an Extreme Over-Valuation</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>5) But, Small Cap Value Stocks Appear Reasonably Valued.</u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>6). Emerging Markets Value Stocks.</u></b></span></span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #120dbe;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u>D. <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">BONDS, C.D.’S, AND INTEREST RATES.</span></u></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(18, 13, 190);"><b><u><span style="color: #120dbe;">E. </span><span style="background-color: #fcff01; color: #120dbe;">DIMENSIONAL FUNDS ADVISORS: DECREASED FEES; ETFS.</span></u></b></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="margin-bottom: 5pt; margin-top: 0in;"><br /></p><h1><a name="_Toc60069858"><!--[if !supportLists]-->A.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The U.S. and Global Economy in the Near Term</a><o:p></o:p></h1><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069859"><!--[if !supportLists]-->1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Will the “rebound” be “V-shaped” or “U-shaped” or something else?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">A “V-shaped recovery implies a quick rebound, while a “U-shaped recovery” implies a long time to recovery.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As I stated many months ago, and as I continue to believe, we shall see more of a long “W-shaped” recovery, with a long right upwardly sloping tail for the last part of the “W.” We already hit the first bottom, and the middle peak, and we are now on the second downturn. As you know, we are seeing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, and this will result in another (but less deep) economic downturn over the winter months. Sometime in the spring the economy will again commence its recovery, but it will take time to form new businesses to replace the many that have failed, and will fail, during 2020 and early 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">It may take many months for things to return to a state of “normalcy.” Part of the problem is that the COVID-19 “fire” is raging hot, currently. While the vaccines are like water coming out of a fire hose, it will take a great deal of that “water” to put out the flames. Hence, some experts have suggested that 85% or more of the U.S. population will need to establish some form of immunity to COVID-19 for the disease to be reduced to very low rates of transmission. And these experts suggest a time frame of five to eight months for this to occur – and that is if a very large percentage of Americans choose to be vaccinated.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The fact of the matter is that the U.S. economic recovery remains tied to our ability to defeat COVID-19 – through vaccinations, continued social distancing measures, and (especially) the wearing of masks.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069860"><!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Service Businesses, Especially Small Ones, Have Been Hit the Hardest</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As <i>Forbes</i> contributor Pamela N. Danziger recently wrote, in her article “Half Of Small Retailers May Be Forced Out Of Business With More Restrictions Threatening,” business providing personal services have been especially hard-hit.</span> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">According to an article appearing on Dec. 14, 2020, in <i>The New York Times</i> (Kerry Hannon, “It’s a Terrible Time for Small Businesses. Except When It’s Not.”), about 28.8 percent of small businesses were already closed for good as of mid-November.</span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069861"><!--[if !supportLists]-->3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Unemployment, and Unemployment Benefits.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">According to the November 2020 data, 10.7 million Americans are classified as” unemployed.” But, when measuring unemployment by a broader measure, the unemployment rate jumps from 6.7% to 10.0%. And measures to stem the current explosion of COVID-19 cases will likely cause the unemployment rates to spike upward in the next few months, at least somewhat.</span> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Fortunately, there are unemployment benefits, which have tempered the economic decline and enabled some unemployed to financially survive during 2020. Unemployment benefits were extended through the end of 2020 by the U.S. Congress, earlier this year, with another extension just signed into law for the next few months. However, for at least a few weeks, 12 million Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits could see their benefits lapse; this is because in many states it can</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> take weeks to continue benefits under the recently passed legislation, due to outdated state systems.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits may not be enough to offset a significant increase in residential mortgage foreclosures in 2021. Seriously past-due (90+ days) mortgages remain 1.8 million above the pre-pandemic level of about 450,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In addition, of the 44 million U.S. households that rent their homes, only 75.4% of those households have made full or partial rent payments (some landlords allow partial rent payments) for December 2020. As eviction bans end in mid-2021, we may see a significant rise in the number of individuals and families evicted from their homes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069862"><!--[if !supportLists]-->4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Economic Activity to Rebound in 2021?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p style="background-color: white; font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #444444;">When 62 economists were surveyed to obtain the mean future projection for U.S. economic growth in 2021, the slowest projection of U.S. economic growth came from A.C. Cutts, who indicated only a 1.9% increase in GDP over the next four quarters (2020Q4-2021Q3).</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #444444;">While I am not as pessimistic as AC Cutts, I do believe that the “V” shape indicated by the survey mean will be a more like the shallow decline in the second part of a “W” as indicated by A.C. Cutts, but with a faster rebound starting in the second quarter of 2021 than his projection indicates.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #444444;">However, if Congress were to increase the stimulus checks just passed, from $600 a person to $2,000 a person, this would likely also boost the recovery.</span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069863"><!--[if !supportLists]-->5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Perspective on the Threats from COVID-19 Mutations.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">During this past month news has spread of mutations to COVID-19 which apparently increased the transmission rate of the disease. While no evidence yet exists that the disease mutations, found in the United Kingdom and in South Africa, cause a more severe inflection, the fact that many mutations have emerged in just the first year of the COVID-19 disease raises a number of troubling questions. For example, will the current vaccines be effective against new strains of COVID? And … how long will the current vaccinations offer protection against COVID – i.e., will a new vaccination be required every year, or even more often?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Thousands of different mutations in the COVID-19 virus have already occurred. However, for the virus to mutate sufficiently to not be affected by the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, it would not only have to change significantly, but do so in one specific area of the virus, the spike protein that latches onto cells in the body. It is not inconceivable that the virus could change in this way; viruses mutate all the time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Volunteers who received the Moderna had more different types of antibodies in their blood than did people who had been sick with COVID-19, but not more in terms of numbers of antibodies.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> Interestingly, the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines induce an immune response only to the spike protein carried by the coronavirus on its surface. But each person who is actually infected by COVID-19 (and who survives) produces within their body a large, unique and complex repertoire of antibodies to this protein. But it is not just the different types of different antibodies produced – it is also their strength and numbers. The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna generally produce a very large number of a single antibody, far in excess of the total number of antibodies produced by infected persons. Vaccines for some pathogens, like pneumococcal bacteria, induce better immunity than the natural infection does. Early evidence suggests that the Covid-19 vaccines may fall into this category.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Also, we know that there are very, very, few persons who suffer a severe reaction to the vaccines.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> In contrast, intentionally contracting COVID-19, to generate different types of antibodies, is like Russian roulette … you simply cannot predict if a person will have a minor reaction to the virus or a more severe reaction, requiring hospitalization, resulting in severe long-term health consequences, or leading to death. In conclusion … get vaccinated, when you can; don’t wait to catch the disease.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Several experts have expressed the view that mutations sufficient to counter the effectiveness of a vaccine would take years to occur, not months.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> Hence, it appears likely that the current Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which are said to have 95% or greater effectiveness against the disease, will likely be in use for at least several years to come.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">If and when a mutation occurs that renders current vaccines ineffective, pharmaceutical companies could have a new version of the vaccine ready within a few months</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">. During this period, however, we might see social distancing and other measures implemented to slow the spread of any new disease variant. And that would impact the economy of the regions affected by any mutated virus – at least in the short-term.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">It is this fear of future disruptions that is driving companies and firms to re-visit how people work together</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">. Are desks spread apart sufficiently? Is air flow in the workplace sufficient? Should windows exist in office buildings to facilitate the entry of “fresh air”? How far apart should people stand or work in a production line? How might contingency planning better protect firms from production stoppages … such as by planning for more people to work from home during the next pandemic, or spreading workers on production lines out (and possibly using more shifts)? A great deal of effort is now going into planning at companies, as they try to assess and counter the risks of not just this pandemic, but possible future ones as well.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Those who contracted COVID-19 should still get the vaccine.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> The number of antibodies generated within a person’s body varies with the severity of the illness. In people who are only mildly ill, the immune protection that can prevent a second infection may wane within a few months. In contrast, the vaccines are known to generate a very large amounts of antibodies … often 200 times the number of antibodies generated when someone was infected. The immunity a person obtains from the vaccine is likely to last a lot longer than the immunity gained by a person who contracted COVID-19 and since recovered.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">When is a person who has been vaccinated then protected?</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses, given two weeks apart. While some protection is provided by the first dose, once the second dose kicks in at about one week after the second shot, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have shown in studies to be about 95% effective in preventing COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">However, being vaccinated does not mean you should not wear a mask and practice social distancing. Scientists don’t yet know if the virus can be transmitted by someone who has received the vaccine and generated sufficient antibodies. It is possible that the virus could reside in an infected person’s upper respiratory tract, and spread to others, at least for a period of time – even if that person has been vaccinated and generated antibodies sufficient to combat the disease (as to contracting the disease herself or himself).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">How long will a vaccination continue to be effective?</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> It’s possible that coronavirus vaccinations will become an annual event, just like the flu shot. Or it may be that the benefits of the vaccine last longer than a year. We simply don’t know at this point.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h1><a name="_Toc60069864"><!--[if !supportLists]-->B.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Developments Affecting the Economy in the Long Term</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">There are many potential implications for the long-term, some positive, and some negative, for the U.S. and global economies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.55in; mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069865"><!--[if !supportLists]-->1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Increased Corporate Cash Holdings.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-9, larger corporations increased their cash holdings substantially. I anticipate that corporations, to better ensure their survival should another pandemic occur, will again be more conservative in terms of holding cash.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Hopefully corporations will also decrease their outstanding debt, although with the cost of debt being so low (as interest rates are low), this may not occur.</span> </p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.55in; mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069866"><!--[if !supportLists]-->2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Shift of Working from Large Cities to Rural Areas.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As you have likely observed, many workers in large cities – who now work from home – have moved out of high-rent areas in large cities to more rural areas. With substantially increased use of providing services via online connections has occurred, there will certainly be more individuals desiring to work from home, and more companies that will facilitate such.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">However, I suspect that over the years ahead a shift back into workplaces will occur. About 70% of all work done in corporations today by those who work in offices is done in teams (a substantial increase from 40%, just a few decades ago). Also, training and mentoring new employees is best done in-person. In the future many corporations may desire to have employees who have the flexibility to either work from home or come into the office, in the years ahead. Although the costs of having employees in the office will increase (due to increase separation, leading to larger workspaces), companies will see the value in having employees in the office, at least for a significant portion of their time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.55in; mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069867"><!--[if !supportLists]-->3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Decrease in Birth Rates – U.S. and Globally.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Birth rates in the United States have been steadily declining over many decades. Following the 2008-9 Great Financial Crisis, birth rates continued their decline.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I suspect birth rates will continue to decline, especially in 2021, due to the pandemic and the financial impacts felt by many young couples. With the cost of raising one child estimated to be $200,000 or greater from birth to age 18, here with in the United States, more and more couples may decide to not have children, or to have fewer children.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">This long-term demographic trend is not isolated to the United States. Globally birth rates have declined, and are projected to decline further, as illustrated the chart at right.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">By 2030 and later, despite the advances in technology that lead to less utilization of workers in many sectors of the economy, there will likely be increased shortages of trained technicians, as well as of college graduates in many fields.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Less restrictive immigration policies will likely alleviate some, but not all, of these future shortages of skilled workers.</span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.55in; mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069868"><!--[if !supportLists]-->4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->A Greater Understanding that In-Person Education is More Optimal than Online Instruction, At Least for Many Students.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">From K-12 through college, a far greater number of students have now participated in online classes. One might think that this will lead to a substantial movement away from in-person instruction in the years ahead, but I suspect that the embrace of online education will be modest, at best. Why? Because online education for most students is not as effective in achieving learning outcomes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For K-5 students, several studies report a dramatic decrease in learning outcomes for students this past year.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Through personal experience, I can attest to the fact that very few university students felt that their learning via online instruction came close to matching that seen in the classroom, despite a monumental effort by many university professors to learn and implement best practices in online education.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">One might question why this exists. The reality is that teachers and professors do more than just provide instruction. They also serve as <i>mentors</i> and <i>advisors</i> and <i>role models</i> and <i>motivators</i>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">There is also a certain “magic” that results from teacher/professor – student interactions, and from peer-to-peer learning activities. These conditions are difficult to replicate online.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For many students lacking self-discipline, in-person instruction is better to hold them accountable for their work efforts, from day-to-day.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I have always believed that attending college is not just about the acquisition of knowledge. It is also about developing all-important skills, and maturing socially and in other ways. Still, the university experience can and should evolve further, and not just because of continued decades-long declines in state support for higher education. More project-based learning, small group instruction within hybrid courses, internships, and greater flexibility to customize curricula to better meet the needs of students and their potential future employers, along with better instructional methods designed to achieve long-term retention, can be undertaken. We can also encourage students to major in degree paths and/or achieve certificates that better meet the employment shortages likely to occur in many areas by 2030 and beyond.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Demographic trends don’t bode well for universities after 2025. Due to declines in the college-age population, a decrease in the number of students attending college by 10% or so (more in some areas of the country, less in other areas) will occur. As a result, smaller colleges will continue to close. And larger universities who don’t adequately plan for the expected need for “downsizing” will become financially stressed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.55in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069869"><!--[if !supportLists]-->5)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Increase in Productivity, Via Application of Technologies.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The coronavirus pandemic is accelerating the uptake of automation in the workplace, putting jobs at risk – especially in the sectors that have been hit hardest.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Greater deployment of technology in manufacturing will aid the movement toward U.S.-based manufacturing operations. Still, to make labor costs in the U.S. competitive, many companies need to be able to produce the same quantity of product with about half of the employees that would be needed in a similar factory in China. However, wages in China are increasing. Also, there is a greater realization that China’s communist government and its varying policies, along with trade disputes with the U.S. and other countries, can lead to risks of supply chain disruptions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">There is a lot of venture capital today that is devoted to trying to automate farm labor tasks, particularly relating to the harvesting of crops. Robotics are also increasingly used in manufacturing. Artificial intelligence (while still in its infancy) is already leading to the automation of other processes, such as responses to customer inquiries, that previously were quite labor-intensive.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.55in; mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069870"><!--[if !supportLists]-->6)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Wealth Inequality, Wealth Used to Influence Public Policy – and Their Dangers.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>A lot has been written about wealth inequality in recent years</b>. There is no doubt that long-term trends – including the increased use of capital (and technology) to foster production of goods and services, the outsourcing of higher-paying manufacturing jobs to lower-wage markets, and decreases in the top income tax rates – have all been factors that have led to higher wealth inequality in the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>There are solutions, but they may be hard for our society to embrace.</b> For example, substantially increasing the minimum wage (and tying it to inflation, for future years) has long been sought by many. Personally, I believe that the inability of wages to keep pace has largely been a consequence of the dramatic increases in health care costs borne by corporations. (We need to address the structure of our health care system in a major way, as it is highly inefficient and consumes far greater of our GDP than seen in other developed countries of the world.) Still, if wages stay low, consumer spending (which accounts for 70% of all U.S. economic activity) will also continue to trend lower. In essence, you can’t expect to be able to sell goods and services if an ever-increasing share of the population can’t afford to purchase them.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>My greater worry is that, as a society, we are not anchored by a common set of understandings and facts.</b> In large part this is due to the rise of alternative media sources, including but not limited to social media, and the rise of monied interests seeking to influence public opinion (and, thereby, public policy). This has resulted in a level of incensed political discourse we have not seen for many decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>I fear the consequences of this increased ability by business interests and the ultra-wealthy to influence the minds of so many Americans, often through disinformation campaigns, but also by not just presenting both sides of an issue, or by ignoring certain news events that deserved greater attention</b>. I also fear the long-term consequences of the U.S. Supreme Court’s <i>Citizens United</i> decision, which unleashed a flood of contributions to political campaigns by corporations and the ultra-rich. As a frequent visitor to the halls of Congress in connection with my public advocacy efforts on behalf of individual investors, I can personally attest that monied interests possess great influence in the crafting of public policy and legislation, as well as substantial influence as to the rules adopted by U.S. government agencies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Don’t get me wrong. <b>I favor capitalism. Yet, unconstrained, capitalism leads to abuses.</b> As James Madison long ago observed, “If all men were angels, no government would be necessary.” Prudent regulation, with a light touch, can be proper. Still, I believe government cannot be the solution to every problem, and government should be constrained in its size and should be as efficient as we can make it. A <b>proper balance</b> must be sought.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Cameron Murray, in his review of Peter Turchin’s 2015 book, <i>Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth</i><b>, </b>observed that when “selfish elites and other special interest groups capture the political agenda … <b>[t]he spirit that ‘we are all in the same boat’ disappears and is replaced by a ‘winner take all’ mentalit</b>y. As the elites enrich themselves, the rest of the population is increasingly impoverished. Rampant inequality of wealth further corrodes cooperation.”<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">It is this decline in cooperation among Americans – our sense of a common social identity, and that some actions should be taken to foster not our own individual economic agendas but for the good of all of us – that I fear.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I worry that our current U.S. Constitution, while a great document, may not be up to the task of countering these trends. <b>Changes to the U.S. Constitution I would like to see</b> include: (1) term limits for all members of the U.S. Congress (for a maximum of twelve years), to better ensure statesmanship rather than blind allegiance to party doctrine; (2) limits on political contributions to any political campaign or cause to a set dollar amount, per person, per year, and the elimination of political contributions by corporations, unions, and other organizations; and (3) the adoption of multi-member districts for elections, which should give rise to more than two major political parties in the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">There are other solutions to the current political discord in our society, and to the threat of social upheaval that could result from the current levels of wealth inequality and its prospects for further severity. I hope that, in the years ahead, we (regardless of political allegiance or preferences) can <b>find ways to have intelligent conversations about these issues</b>, and that we can both identify and implement proper solutions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.55in; mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069871"><!--[if !supportLists]-->7)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Positive Long-Term Economic Trends.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">While there are many long-term economic concerns, both within the U.S. and globally, I am struck by the rise of solutions, that in turn should benefit Americans by lowering costs, increasing productivity, and (hopefully) increasing standards of living:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo16; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>Self-driving cars</b>, while still years (if not a decade or more) from widespread deployment, will lead to greater mobility for many persons in our society. It will also obviate, for many, the need to own a car or other vehicle (the annual average costs of ownership being about $9,000 a year, on average), and lead to transportation costs declines for many individual Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo16; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>Low mortgage rates</b> in recent years – and especially this year – has resulted in many residential mortgages being refinanced. For at least the next ten years, if not longer, this will decrease the housing costs of many Americans. In turn this will free up families to spend money in other ways. Lower interest rates on some other forms of consumer debt (car loans, student loans) will also help, to a lesser degree.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo16; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">With the rise of (somewhat controversial) fracking to mine oil and natural gas, America’s <b>dependency on oil imports has declined significantly</b>, and largely served to limit increases in the cost of oil (despite repeated attempts by OPEC to reduce supplies). And the increase deployment of hybrid vehicles and other more efficient vehicles has led to a modest decline in the demand for oil. <b>Electric cars will likely be able to be purchased for a similar price as gas-powered cars by 2025</b>, and further developments in battery technology will lead to ever-increasing ranges and shorter re-charging times over the next decade.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Note that in much of western Europe the sale of gasoline-powered cars will be banned after 2030 or 2035. In September of 2020, California governor Gavin Newsom announced he was banning the sale of internal-combustion-engine passenger vehicles after 2035. It is likely that further bans on gasoline-powered vehicles will be enacted here in the United States, as well as other countries, especially after the costs of electric vehicles decline, and a much greater re-charging network is put in place (including at apartment complexes, condominiums, as well as for longer road trips).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo16; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>The continued decline of wholesale solar energy costs</b> will cap the long-term costs of electricity in the United States, and greater deployment for individual home solar panels, will occur over the next two decades. Declines in the costs of other renewable energy resources (wind power, geothermal) and long-term energy storage (pumped hydro, flow batteries, and many more) will continue to shift our reliance away from fossil fuels and to these “renewables.” The shift will primarily occur due to basic economic considerations, although continued tax incentives for renewable energy will likely hasten the shift somewhat.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo16; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">With the rise and deployment of computers from the 1980’s forward, productivity enhancements have taken place. We continue down this “<b>computer revolution</b>” through ever-more-sophisticated computer software applications. Manufacturing in the United States will benefit, as greater robotics, more stable supply chains, and less lesser finished product transportation costs combine to make manufacturing in the United States less expensive.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">But, due in large part to the continued deployment of <b>robotics</b>, the number of manufacturing jobs may not increase substantially. Instead, we will need even more engineers and computer programmers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo16; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Advancements in medicine, especially the application of genomics and technologies to drive vaccines will continue to lead to cures and therapies for many chronic illnesses. Life expectancies will continue to increase. The majority of students graduating from college this coming year will likely live to at least age 100.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h1><a name="_Toc60069872"><!--[if !supportLists]-->C.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The Future Projected Long-Term Returns of Stock Asset Classes</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">If I had to sum up the prior two sections, I would conclude:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">First, the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 will take time; it will start off strong by March or April of 2021, and the statistics thereafter will appear good. But it will take time to reach the very low unemployment levels seen prior to the start of the pandemic. A shock to both the ability to supply goods and services, as well as the ability of consumers to purchase such goods and services, has occurred. Overcoming these shocks will take time, and government support for spending (such as through infrastructure improvements) to counter the demand shock (especially) is far from certain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Second, over the long term many positive economic trends have emerged that will promote U.S. economic growth and may lead to longer lives and greater living standards. How the U.S. addresses its accumulated governmental debt remains a risk, however, especially if interest rates increase and a “debt spiral” emerges.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">So, how does all of this affect your investment portfolio?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I often get asked (rarely by my clients, but often by others) as to what the stock market will do in the <i><u>near</u></i>future – such as during the next week, month, or year? The answer … I have no clue. And I don’t think anyone else has a working crystal ball, either – at least a consistently working one.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Yet, <b>I do believe that current valuation levels in the capital markets lead to a likely range of possible long-term returns among different asset classes</b>. And that we should take such projections into account when making financial decisions – such as projecting the long-term sustainable rate of withdrawal from the portfolio of a person who has recently retired.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="mso-list: l10 level1 lfo17; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069873"><!--[if !supportLists]--> 1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->In Summary, The Expected Long-Term Returns of Some Stock Asset Classes Appear Favorable, but the Prospects of Positive Returns in Other Stock Asset Classes Appear to be Quite Dismal.</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">U.S. small cap value stocks, foreign developed markets stocks, and emerging markets value stocks possess long-term (10-year or 15-year) <i>projected </i>average annualized returns that are quite favorable – and in the range of 8% to 10% (on average). There will be a lot of “ups” and “downs” along the way, however.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In contrast, both U.S. and foreign large cap stocks (overall, in a “balanced” or “core” composition), and in particular U.S. large cap growth stocks, are extremely overvalued at present.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">A portfolio which “tilts” toward small cap, value stocks, and which incorporates emerging markets value stocks, possesses a high probability (perhaps 80% or greater) of outperforming the overall U.S. and foreign stock markets over the next 10-15 years. <o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="mso-list: l10 level1 lfo17; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069874"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>A Word of Caution: The Analytical Foundations of These Projected Returns, and the Inherent Uncertainties Present in Projecting 10-Year and 15-Year Asset Class Returns</a><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">While the academic evidence does not support the ability of market forecasters to consistently predict short-term returns of asset classes, or of specific securities, we can <i>somewhat</i> predict the likely returns of various stock asset classes over the next 10 or 15 years. The further in time out we go, the more likely “reversion to the mean” of asset class valuations will occur, and the range of projected returns becomes narrower.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The resulting projections are just that – estimates. They are undertaken by combining the following analytical foundations:<o:p></o:p></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The historical returns of various asset classes, both over the very long-term (when such data is available) and over the past 20-30 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">An understanding of the drivers of equity returns, often called “factors,” with estimates of the future robustness of each factor in the future affected by the knowledge of each factor and the ability (or lack of ability) to engage in arbitrage with respect to such factor.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Adjustments are made to estimated future returns based upon an assumed lower rate of inflation in future years, relative to that of the past several decades. However, should inflation be higher, then logically (to an extent) future expected returns of asset classes would also likely be higher, at least over the long term.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">It is assumed that U.S. economic growth will be at a lower rate in the future, given the decline of the rate of U.S. population growth in recent years and as projected into the future. Also, the substantial drag on future U.S. economic growth due to current high levels of federal and state government debt, corporate debt, and personal debt is considered.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">An assumption is made that “reversion to the mean” will occur with regard to current asset class valuations by the end of the 10-year or 15-year period for which estimates are provided. In itself, making such an adjustment is somewhat difficult, as the means of asset class valuations change over the very long term. In addition, rarely does an asset class valuation exist at the mean. Undervaluations of asset classes can and do occur, often 50% or more below the mean, and often 100% or greater above the mean. In itself, this implies that the possible range of average annualized returns for any one asset class is quite broad, and the resulting returns for any particular asset class could be much higher or much lower than the estimates provided, even over any 10-year or even 15-year period of time.<o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In other words, to put it simply, the projections provided of asset class returns are merely <i>estimates</i>, and the actual asset class returns that will occur will often be far different from what is estimated.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Even with all of those limitations, I believe that projections of asset class returns are useful. They force us to consider, at least for financial planning purposes, a somewhat more accurate set of long-term asset class projected returns than that we might otherwise erroneously assume from just assuming past (historical) long-term returns will continue into the future. When, as currently exists, many asset class valuations appear to be much higher than normal, this instills into our financial planning processes a more conservative analysis in determining whether lifelong financial goals can be obtained.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="mso-list: l10 level1 lfo17; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069875"><!--[if !supportLists]--> 3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Investment Asset Class Return Projections (by Ron, and by Others)</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For many years I have used my own methodology to project 15-year probable returns for U.S. stocks – large cap vs. small cap, and growth vs. balanced vs. value. My own methodology relies on price-book valuations, relative to historic levels over the past 43 years. In the chart below, I provide my projections of future U.S. stock asset class returns, as of December 10, 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For comparison purposes, Research Affiliates, a firm that does extensive modeling on future returns of different asset classes, projects the following average annualized returns over the next 10 years. In the chart on the next page, I provide a summary of my own and excerpts from their data. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">(Be aware that the asset class formation metrics used by Research Affiliates are somewhat different that that utilized in my own data set, as well as their methodology for determining historical and present valuation levels and adjustments that lead to expected returns projections.)</span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 648px;"><thead><tr style="break-inside: avoid;"><td style="background-color: #fff2cc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="204"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">ASSET CLASS<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fff2cc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">Ron’s 15-Year Projected Average Annualized Returns<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">(as of Dec. 10, 2020)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fff2cc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">Research Affiliates’ Estimated 10-Year Average Annualized Returns<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">(as of Nov. 30, 2020)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fff2cc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="bottom" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">Research Affiliates’ Estimated 5-Year Average Annualized Returns<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">(as of Oct. 1, 2020)</span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td style="background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Large Cap Growth Stocks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #c00000;">-5.1%</span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fbe4d5; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #f7caac; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Large Cap Balanced Stocks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f7caac; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">3.9%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f7caac; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">2.0%*<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f7caac; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #f4b083; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Large Cap Value Stocks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f4b083; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">5.8%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f4b083; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f4b083; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">8.2%**<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Small Cap Growth Stocks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">1.1%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #c5e0b3; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Small Cap Balanced Stocks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #c5e0b3; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">9.3%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #c5e0b3; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">5.1%*<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #c5e0b3; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #a8d08d; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Small Cap Value Stocks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #a8d08d; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">10.2%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #a8d08d; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #a8d08d; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">10.3%**<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">Foreign Developed Markets Stocks (EAFE Index)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">8.5%*<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">Foreign Emerging Markets Stocks (MSCI EM Index)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">6.7%*<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #deeaf6; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Treasury Long-Term Bonds<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #c00000;">-1.5%</span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Treasury Intermediate Bonds<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">1.6%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #ededed; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #d9d9d9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">U.S. Short-Term Bonds<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #d9d9d9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #d9d9d9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">1.4%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #d9d9d9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #f4d7ff; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 152.85pt;" valign="top" width="204"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f4d7ff; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 110.95pt;" width="148"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f4d7ff; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 113.95pt;" width="152"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">4.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #f4d7ff; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.15pt 5.75pt 0.7pt; width: 1.5in;" width="144"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></b></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Research Affiliates’ data is excerpted from their analysis atResearch Affiliates, LLC (“Research Affiliates”) © Research Affiliates 2020.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RETURNS.</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">THE EXPECTED RETURNS SHOWN ABOVE ARE <i>ESTIMATES ONLY</i>; THE ACTUAL RETURNS CAN BE, AND IN MANY INSTANCES WILL BE, QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE ESTIMATES PROVIDED ABOVE.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">* Given the December month-to-date returns of stocks, ranging from 0% to 5% depending upon asset class, as of Dec. 10, 2020, the projected 10-year returns for stocks would likely be a bit lower as of Dec. 10, 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">** Given the fourth quarter-to-date returns of U.S. Large Cap Value stocks (17% to 18%, using DFA U.S. Large Cap Value Portfolio as a proxy) as of Dec. 12, 2020, the projected 5-year returns should be substantially less as of Dec. 12, 2020. Given the quarter-to-date returns of U.S. Small Cap Value stocks (29% to 30%, using DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio as a proxy), the projected 5-year returns should be substantially less as of Dec. 10, 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">Nominal, not real (inflation-adjusted) returns are set forth. All data presented sets forth expected (estimated) gross returns, and does not reflect trading costs, mutual fund fees, nor any investment advisory fees charged by Scholar Financial.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt;">For educational purposes only. Before relying on any of this data, seek the advice of a qualified investment adviser to more fully understand the purposes of this data, its proper utiization, and its inherent limitations.</span></p><h2 style="mso-list: l10 level1 lfo17; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069876"><!--[if !supportLists]--> 4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->U.S. Large Cap Stock Valuations: The Shiller CAPE10 Ratio Indicates an Extreme Over-Valuation</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">A widely followed indicator of the valuation level of U.S. large company stocks is the Shiller PE10 Ratio, which (as of Dec. 29, 2020, 4pm ET) stands at <b>33.93</b> – 100% higher than its historical mean (from 1870 to present) of 16.76.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">This implies a <i>negative return</i> for U.S. large company stocks over the next <i><u>eight years</u></i>, assuming reversion to the mean.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">While there are some reasons to speculate that a more accurate historical mean of the Shiller PE10 ratio may be around 22 (due to changes in accounting methods over time), we still end up with a very high overvaluation of U.S. large company stocks – at least 50% above the long-term mean.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2 style="mso-list: l10 level1 lfo17; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc60069877"><!--[if !supportLists]--> 5)</a><a name="_Toc60069878" style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->But, Small Cap Value Stocks Appear Reasonably Valued.</a></h2><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The last time I observed such a disconnect between “growth stocks” and “value stocks” was in early 2000. <i>History has a way of repeating itself.</i> And, this time, the disconnect appears to be even worse.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;">As indicated previously, over the next 15 years I anticipate U.S. large cap value stocks will deliver modest returns (about 5-6% annually, on average), while U.S. small cap value stocks will deliver stronger returns (about 10% annually or greater, on average). However, these are estimates only, and the actual returns seen over the next 15 years will likely be quite different from these projections.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-indent: 0px;"><a name="_Toc60069879" style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">6) Emerging Markets Value Stocks.</span></b></a></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo18; text-indent: -0.25in;"><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">By many estimates U.S. stocks are overvalued, relative to stock markets in other countries.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Yet, the same bubble in certain stocks in the U.S. has been repeated abroad. Stocks of large “growth” companies in emerging markets have often seen valuation levels that can only be viewed as “excessive” – similar to stocks like Tesla.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Still, as of early December 2020, investors were paying roughly twice as much per dollar of earnings for U.S. equities as they are for stocks in emerging markets, as computed by CAPE ratios.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As Jeremy Grantham of GMO notes, “internationally – both in developed and emerging markets – Value also looks like a remarkable bargain … In many cases, in fact, we have never seen cheap stocks looking cheaper than they do today.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">It is not surprising that the highest <i>expected</i> returns over the next 10-15 years may exist in “emerging markets value” stocks. The demographics of emerging markets countries appear quite favorable relative to western Europe and the United States, with greater increases in populations in most countries, along with a continued migration away from a commodity-export and agricultural economy to a modern economy. In additions, excluding some of the very large “growth” stocks found in those markets, on a relative valuation basis emerging markets stocks appear quite “cheap.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><h1><a name="_Toc60069880"><!--[if !supportLists]-->D.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Bonds, C.D.’s, and Interest Rates.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Perhaps the largest challenge to individual investors has been the long decline in interest rates, and the relatively low rates over the past twelve years. Vastly different opinions exist as to whether low interest rates will persist in the United States for many years to come, or whether interest rates will increase, or even decline here in the United States to <i>negative</i> interest rates (for U.S. Treasuries).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>Quite frankly, it is nearly impossible to predict the future of yields on fixed income investments. </b>And, despite many warnings over the past decade of a surge in inflation, such has not occurred, and the future of inflation (a measure of the rise in prices of consumer goods) is also very difficult to predict.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I can observe that yields for bank’s certificates of deposit have fallen over the past year, as well as yields on short-term and mid-term municipal bonds. Current yields for short-term debt instruments in the U.S. are near their historic lows – over the past 60 years!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I continue to urge investors to <b>be wary of long-term bond</b>s. If and when yields on bonds rise, the value of bonds (especially long-term bonds) will fall.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;">Additionally, <b>s</b></span><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium;">eeking out higher yields by purchasing lower-quality bonds, whether issued by municipalities or by corporations, does not seem worthwhile at present</b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;">. Simply put, the small amount of additional return provided does not appear to justify the additional risks of default that are undertaken. Risk among lower-rated fixed income securities appears to be misplaced at present.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As I have written about previously, the <b>SWAN ETF</b>, which is designed to possess about 90% U.S. Treasury securities (safe, intermediate-term bonds) and about 10% call options on the S&P 500 Index, appears to be one place higher returns can be obtained. I concluded my initial research on the SWAN ETF about 18 months ago, and continue to review new articles and academic research on the strategy used by the fund. The SWAN ETF is a good holding to replace a <i>portion</i> of the fixed income component of an investor’s portfolio.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For example, an investor who is retired and possesses a 50% allocation to stocks (via stock mutual funds and stock ETFs) might allocate 25% of the portfolio to the SWAN ETF, while keeping 25% in short-term, high quality bond funds and/or certificates of deposit and/or municipal bonds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo19; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In essence, the short-term and safer fixed income investments are the <b>top layer of a three-layer cake portfolio,</b> and it is from this top layer that withdrawals are undertaken.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo19; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The SWAN ETF could be thought of as the middle layer of the cake, for while this fund has some short-term volatility, over any given 5-year period there is only a small probability of negative returns (and, even then, the negative returns would not be severe). Transfers would occur from the SWAN ETF to the top layer as “rebalancing” the portfolio is undertaken periodically.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo19; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The bottom layer, designed for utilization in 10 years or greater, is allocated to stocks (via highly diversified stock mutual funds and ETFs). Transfers from the bottom layer to the SWAN ETF (middle layer) would also occur through the rebalancing process, such as when equities (stock mutual funds) had a period of very good returns.</span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo19; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo19; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo19; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">A younger investor, willing to assume more risk, and with 20 or greater years to go until retirement, might invest 80% of their portfolio in equities, and 20% in the SWAN ETF.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">An investor with a much higher rate of withdrawal from their investment portfolio, such as 5% to 7% a year, might prefer a much higher allocation to the SWAN ETF, while decreasing their equity exposure down to the 20% to 35% range.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">(Of course, <i>each investor’s situation is unique</i>. Some investors possess higher degrees of tolerance for risk; other investors possess higher or lower need to take on risk. Considerations such as employment stability, diversification of income streams, and many more are taken into account prior to suggesting a particular strategic asset allocation for any investor.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><h1><a name="_Toc60069881"><!--[if !supportLists]-->E.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Dimensional Funds Advisors: Decreased Fees; ETFs.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As my clients are aware, I have favored the use of equity (stock) mutual funds from Dimensional Funds Advisors for years, in large part due to their greater exposures to certain “factors,” their close control of trading costs, and their conservative approach to securities lending while keeping all net securities lending revenue in the fund (rather than sharing a portion thereof with the investment adviser to the fund, which results in a "hidden" cost to fund shareholders).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In just the recent few years, more "multi-factor" funds, as well as multi-factor separate account strategies, have launched and become available to a greater number of investors. There are, however, often dramatic distinctions in how the factors are combined by the investment manager. In fact, in my own view, much more academic research is required on how to best utilize multiple factors.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;">Even lacking the volume of academic evidence I would like to see - on the best way to combine (and utilize) factors - the emergence of so many multi-factor funds and ETFs and other vehicles brings forth new competition in the marketplace, which has a tendency to result in lower fees and costs for investors.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><b>In some <i>very positive </i>developments for our clients</b>, recently <b>Dimensional Funds Advisors (DFA) reduced the fees of several of its mutual funds.</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">And also – for several of DFA's mutual funds which will be converted to ETFs – <b>reduced the “tax drag” on investor returns for 2021 and forward</b> by migration to a new fund structure.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;">To achieve greater tax efficiencies, some of DFA's tax-managed and/or tax-aware mutual funds are being transitioned to the “exchange-traded fund” (“ETF”) structure. (The reason for this involves how “accumulation units” are “redeemed” in the ETF structure, resulting in the ability to transfer low-cost-basis stocks out of the ETF to a tax-exempt investor, thereby benefiting other shareholders within the ETF. A full explanation of how this works involves many pages, which I will skip in an attempt to keep this section brief. Suffice to say that this is a "tax loophole" that benefits the ETF structure, compared to most mutual fund structures.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Dimensional’s stock mutual funds have historically had low long-term capital gains distributions given its broadly-diversified, low turnover approach. And DFA’s tax-managed and tax-aware funds have done a very good job of securing “qualified dividend” treatment where possible, which effectively lowers the tax rates applied to distributed dividends. The switch to ETFs will enhance the ability of these funds to limit long-term capital gain distributions, with distributions of capital gains each year likely to fall to zero or close to zero. In effect, this reduces the “tax drag” on the investment returns of these funds/ETFs, when held in taxable accounts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Here is a chart that details recent and upcoming changes to some of Dimensional’s funds:<o:p></o:p></span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 642px;"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color: #fcffa0; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="234"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Former Fund<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fcffa0; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="234"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Replacement ETF<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fcffa0; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" valign="bottom" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">Old Annual Expense Ratio<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: #fcffa0; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">New Annual Expense Ratio<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">T</span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">ax-Managed U.S. Equity Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional U.S. Equity ETF<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.18%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.08%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Tax-Managed U.S. Small Cap Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.40%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.30%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Tax-Managed U.S. Targeted Value Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional U.S. Targeted Value ETF<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.40%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.30%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Tax-Aware U.S. Core Equity 2 Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional U.S. Core Equity 2 ETF<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.20%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.16%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Tax-Managed International Value Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional International Value ETF<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.45%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.30%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.25pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Tax-Aware World ex-US Core Equity Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional World ex-U.S. Core Equity 2 Portfolio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 63pt;" width="84"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.30%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.25%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></o:p>You are not required to undertake any action to have your mutual funds converted to the lower-cost, more tax-efficient ETFs. This will be done automatically for you, and at no cost to you – nor any tax consequence arising from the conversion.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In addition, Dimensional has launched three new ETFs with somewhat lesser factor exposures and with relatively low annual expense ratios.<o:p></o:p></span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 654px;"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 251.75pt;" valign="top" width="336"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional US Core Equity Market ETF (DFAU)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2in;" width="192"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.12%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 94.5pt;" width="126"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Listed: 11/18/20<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 251.75pt;" valign="top" width="336"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional International Core Equity Market ETF (DFAI)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2in;" width="192"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.18%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 94.5pt;" width="126"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Listed: 11/18/20<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 1pt; border-left: 1pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 251.75pt;" valign="top" width="336"><p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF (DFAE)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2in;" width="192"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">0.35%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td><td style="background-color: #e2efd9; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 94.5pt;" width="126"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: small;">Listed 12/2/20<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><h1><span style="font-size: x-small;">As always, obtain the read each fund's Statutory Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information, and Annual/Semi-Annual Reports, to fully understand any mutual fund or ETF prior to investing in same. Important is achieving an understanding the investment strategy of the fund itself, but also how a fund is properly utilized in the design of an overall portfolio. Again, this information is presented for educational purposes only; prior to the application of this information to your own investment portfolio, seek the advice of a qualified investment adviser.</span></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As always, thank you for the opportunity to share these thoughts.</span></i> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: "Bradley Hand"; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 27.6px;">Ron<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Personal Financial Advisor<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Scholar Financial<o:p></o:p></span></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-15009234069920172552020-12-15T12:48:00.002-05:002021-06-08T11:22:44.199-04:00Scholar Financial Special Update, Part 1: F.A.Q.s Regarding Vaccines for COVID-19<p> <span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 21.4667px;">December 14, 2020</span></b></p><style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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</style><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: yellow; font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">~ A </span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">SCHOLAR FINANCIAL SPECIAL REPORT </span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">~</span></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #0432ff; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #0432ff; font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;"><span style="color: #fcff01;">PART ONE: COVID-19</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">From Dr. Ron A. Rhoades<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">E-mail: </span></b><a href="mailto:ron@scholarfinancial.com"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">ron@scholarfinancial.com</span></a><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> (clients and prospective clients only)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">E-mail: </span></b><a href="mailto:ron.rhoades@wku.edu"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">ron.rhoades@wku.edu</span></a><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> (students, family, colleagues, friends)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Monday, December 14, 2020<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Dear Clients, Students, Family and Friends:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">If I had a theme for this edition of this <i>Special Update</i>, it would be: <b>“The Winter of Our Discontent.”</b> Yet, looking ahead to mid-2021 brings renewed hope for … a return to “normal”?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">If I had a singular message for you, it would be this ... continue social distancing and the wearing of masks. Gatherings of family and friends at one's home turn out to be responsible for 70% or more of new COVID-19 cases. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;">It’s clear that “even modest size gatherings of family and friends in a home” are contributing to spread, Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said. “We’re starting to see infections that are emerging from what otherwise seemed like benign settings, namely a typical gathering." Even Dr. Fauci won't be spending Christmas with his three grown daughters - the first time in 30 years, he states.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;">Be patient! As this <i>Special Update</i> explores, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely peak in the United States in mid-January. It will likely take at least a few months for the number of cases to decline. While vaccinations have begun, it will be several months - and perhaps longer - for many Americans to be vaccinated. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In the two parts of this <i>Special Update</i>, I explore recent news about the vaccines for COVID-19, the recovery of the economy and future prospects, and the recent rise of stock market. I also delve into the implications of low interest rates on investment portfolio returns, and suggest a “three-layer cake” approach might work best in the years ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In Part One, I focus on the recent news about COVID-19 vaccines.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In the near future, I will release Part Two, which will focus on the economy and the capital markets.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="color: #c00000;">Table of Contents<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoToc1"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765294"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">COVID-19: HUGE NUMBER OF CASES; PEAK IN JANUARY 2021?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; text-transform: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc1"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765295"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">B.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">THE COVID-19 VACCINES – F.A.Q.S</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765296"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">When will the vaccines begin distribution?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765297"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">How do these vaccines work?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765298"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Are the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines safe?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765299"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Why do so many Americans state that they will not take the vaccine?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765300"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Will the vaccine really stop the spread of COVID-19 to those who have not been vaccinated? (I.e., why we still need to wear masks and social distance, even if vaccinated).</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765301"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Will those who have already tested positive for COVID-19 get the vaccine?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765302"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Who will get vaccinated first?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765303"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">How many vaccine doses will be available in the United States?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoToc2" style="margin-left: 33.85pt; text-indent: -0.3in;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><a href="applewebdata://A1C6FF96-024F-4F20-B354-3F00DE0EA436#_Toc58765304"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-position: normal !important; text-decoration: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">How long will it take, following vaccination, for a person to achieve immunity?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;">C. News From Ron and Cathy</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><h1 style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc58765294"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b>A.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></b><!--[endif]--><b>COVID-19: HUGE NUMBER OF CASES; PEAK IN JANUARY 2021?</b></a><b><o:p></o:p></b></h1><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">This chart, from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, estimates that a rapid rollout of the vaccine for COVID-19 will likely result in a peak of infections in the United States sometime in mid-January. (The daily death total would likely peak a couple of weeks later.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><img height="368" src="blob:https://www.blogger.com/cbc7994b-cb0a-4697-add6-ef6192a0cb89" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_1" width="640" /></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">By the end of April 2021, the current surge in cases will largely be abated. By late June the number of new cases should be very few, assuming the vast majority of persons in the United States will choose to be vaccinated and that the vaccinations occur as rapidly as planned.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">According to John Hopkins, about 16,000,000 in the United States have contracted COVID-19. According to the CDC, the actual number of cases in the United States is likely two to seven times greater than the reported number of cases. With a current U.S. population of about 330 million, this likely means that about 15% to 30% of those in the United States have already contracted COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">How about worldwide? According to John Hopkins, as of December 13, 2020, 70,957,979 cases of COVID-19 (in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in the affected countries) have been reported, including 1,605,595 deaths. (The actual number of cases and deaths are likely much higher.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></p><h1 style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><a name="_Toc58765295"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b>B.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></b><!--[endif]--><b>The COVID-19 Vaccines – F.A.Q.s</b></a><b><o:p></o:p></b></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">By far the most positive news in recent weeks has been the data from two vaccine studies, demonstrating that 95% of those who received the vaccines developed immunity. While this data is based on an ongoing trial, the efficacy percentage far exceeds what some experts predicted. Moreover, the studies indicated high degrees of effectiveness even in the elderly persons who received the vaccine.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The ideal vaccine would accomplish three endpoints: prevent infection, reduce the severity of the illness if someone does get the disease, and interrupt the chain of transmission. Early results of Phase III (the last phase) trials indicate very high probabilities that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will substantially achieve these objectives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765296"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: "Calibri Light"; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Calibri Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-latin;">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->When will the vaccines begin distribution?</a><span style="font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">One vaccine (from Pfizer-BioNTech) was approved for distribution on December 12, 2020, and vaccinations will begin today (Dec. 14, 2020) for those with highest priority. The approval was for individuals age 16 and older only.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Another similar vaccine from Moderna will be subjected to reviews in the United States commencing this coming week.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Different vaccines from Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are expected to result in sufficient data for efficacy and safety reviews by February 2021. An updated analysis of early data from the Oxford/AstraZeneca trial, released this past week, appears to indicate that this vaccine was deemed to be 70% efficacious. Johnson & Johnson has not released its preliminary data.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Another 9 vaccines are in Phase III trials around the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765297"><!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->How do these vaccines work?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Generally, vaccines teach your immune system to recognize the coronavirus. When you get the vaccine, your immune system makes antibodies (“fighter cells”) that stay in your blood and protect you in case you are infected with the virus. You get protection against the disease without having to get sick.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are based on a new technology, mRNA. But their “newness” does not imply a lack of safety; in fact, due to the process by which these mRNA vaccines generate antibodies, mRNA vaccines are likely safer than conventional vaccines.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Conventional vaccines usually contain inactivated disease-causing organisms or proteins made by the pathogen (antigens), which work by mimicking the infectious agent. They stimulate the body’s immune response, so it is primed to respond more rapidly and effectively if exposed to the infectious agent in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">RNA vaccines use a different approach that takes advantage of the process that cells use to make proteins: cells use DNA as the template to make messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules, which are then translated to build proteins. An RNA vaccine consists of an mRNA strand that codes for a disease-specific antigen. Once the mRNA strand in the vaccine is inside the body’s cells, the cells use the genetic information to produce the antigen. This antigen is then displayed on the cell surface, where it is recognized by the immune system. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">From the standpoint of stopping the pandemic, when enough people in the community can fight off the coronavirus by possessing antibodies, the spread of COVID-19 will substantially decline.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765298"><!--[if !supportLists]-->3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Are the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines safe?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Early indications are that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are very safe, with only mild side effects following injections in a relatively small number of cases. Some who received the vaccine reported short-term, mild-to-moderate pain at the injection site, fatigue, and headache. However, the incidence of serious adverse events was low and was similar in both the vaccine and placebo groups.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">While early data on both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines indicate a high degree of safety, the emergency approval process currently underway for two vaccines is based on only two months of phase III testing data. A full vaccine trial usually takes a minimum of six months.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Still, if you are in a high-risk group (health care workers, over the age of 65, or have certain health conditions), the potential risk from taking the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines appears to <i>far, far outweigh</i> any small degree of risk from taking the vaccines. Those in these high-risk categories are likely to be the first to receive vaccinations (from December through February).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">If you are in a lower-risk group, I still suggest taking the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines when they are made available to you (likely February or March of 2021), unless new information comes out indicating a higher level of risk. Based upon information currently available, the potential benefits of receiving these COVID-19 vaccines still appear to far outweigh the apparently very slight risks present from the vaccination itself. The risks of contracting COVID-19 are quite large in comparison, and it is not just the risk of death. Even young, very healthy individuals can suffer terrible symptoms from COVID-19, and have long-lasting health effects after having had COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765299"><!--[if !supportLists]-->4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Why do so many Americans state that they will not take the vaccine?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Vaccinations against life-threatening diseases are one of the greatest public health achievements in history. Millions of premature deaths have been prevented, any many more have been saved from lifelong impairments to their health.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">All vaccinations have risks. Yet, the medical, social, and economic benefits vaccines confer have led all fifty states to enact compulsory childhood vaccination laws to stop the spread of preventable diseases. However, nearly all states allow exemptions from mandatory vaccinations for religious reasons. A growing number of states provide "philosophical" opt-outs from mandatory vaccinations. The rise in parents opting out has led the American Medical Association to express its grave concern, with many experts decrying the rise of so-called "exemptions of convenience."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I would expect many states to require COVID-19 vaccinations in the future (perhaps as early as Fall 2021 in a few states) – at least for children attending public schools. But, again, with “opt-outs.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Why has antivaccination sentiment grown in the United States in recent decades? In large part this was due to the controversial link between immunizations and autism. Social media and internet sites continue to spread this false information, despite the fact that many, many medical studies have concluded that autism is not caused by vaccines – i.e., <i>there is no link</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">But other reasons exist. A major one is the increased lack of trust in science, political leaders, and the health care system. Some individuals, pushed on by misinformation, including right-wing anti-government rhetoric emanating from some opinion influencers, don’t trust that vaccines are safe. But it is not just some “far right” groups who often oppose vaccination. Generations of experimentation on Black Americans and dismissal at the hands of medical professionals have left many Black Americans skeptical of the medical field and wary of taking a vaccine.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In essence, for different reasons, there are just a lot of people (regardless of political affiliations) who don’t trust the health system or the doctors telling them vaccines are safe. These individuals also don’t trust the people who make the policies promoting vaccination. Moreover, changing the minds of those individuals who oppose vacations, due to lack of trust, has been shown to be very difficult.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In these pages I won’t be able to persuade you, if you don’t trust vaccines, to set aside your lack of trust. I can ask that you take a fresh approach the issue of vaccinations with an open mind, re-examine the evidence, engage in a high degree of critical thinking and analysis, and only then reach a conclusion about whether you will receive a vaccination for COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In recent weeks the percentage of Americans willing to be vaccinated has risen. Perhaps it is because they know one of the 1 in approximately 1,000 Americans who have died from COVID-19, or have seen this COVID-19’s devastating health effects (even for those who did not die from it). Perhaps they now realize that getting the U.S. economy back on track requires, first and foremost, stopping this pandemic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Perhaps, however, the recent increase in the percentage of Americans willing to get vaccinated is due to public information campaigns and initiatives targeting other groups, who don’t necessarily oppose vaccinations on philosophical grounds. For example, efforts continue to concentrate on motivating those who are just complacent about vaccinations, removing barriers for those for whom vaccination is inconvenient, and removing barriers relating to incurring the cost of vaccinations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Whatever the reason for the change in the views of tens of millions of Americans, who opposed vaccinations before-hand but who are now willing to be vaccinated, I am hopeful that the trend continues. We need a very high percentage of Americans (perhaps 70% to 80%, or even more) to achieve some form of immunity from COVID-19 in order to effectively combat this pandemic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765300"><!--[if !supportLists]-->5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Will the vaccine really stop the spread of COVID-19 to those who have not been vaccinated? (I.e., why we still need to wear masks and social distance, even if vaccinated).</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">At a minimum, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines reduce the virus’s severity – far fewer people who got the vaccine got sick than those who received the placebo.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">As to whether those who received the vaccine are then not able to transmit COVID-19 to others, further studies (currently being planned) are necessary in order to reach such a conclusion. It is logical to think so, but – simply put – the data to answer this question is not yet available.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Until we have data on this issue, we all need to continue to avoid contact with others. That means limiting travel to essential trips, working from home where possible, maintaining social distancing, and --- wearing proper masks!<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765301"><!--[if !supportLists]-->6.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Will those who have already tested positive for COVID-19 get the vaccine?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">If you have already had COVID-19, in many states you will have a lower priority as to when you will be eligible to receive the vaccine.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Evidence suggests that if you were already diagnosed with or tested positive for COVID-19, you have likely developed specific antibodies in your blood which may provide some level of natural immune defense. Research is still being done both in the U.S. and globally to determine how long that immune response lasts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">We do not know how long protection will last following infection with COVID-19, or following vaccination. But further information from ongoing clinical trials will become public over time. In comparison, immunity to two similar coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, have lasted at least 3 years. Because of this, as long as supplies of vaccine are limited, people who have had COVID-19 already will likely not be prioritized for vaccination in most states.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765302"><!--[if !supportLists]-->7.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Who will get vaccinated first?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In the United States, under our system of federalism, it is the states’ responsibility to ensure public safety. As a result, rather than have a “national system” determining vaccination priorities, each state will establish their own system of prioritizing the population.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Still, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (“CDC”) has issued guidelines, which are likely to be largely followed by most states. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended, as interim guidance, that both health care personnel and residents of long-term care facilities be offered COVID-19 vaccine in the initial phase of the vaccination program. There are approximately 21 million health care providers, and 3 million residents of long-term care facilities, who will be eligible for vaccinations in this first phase.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">While the CDC has not yet indicated which groups will be “next,” an August 2020 recommendation from the National Governors Association panel suggests who might be next:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/vaccine_figure2.jpg" height="449" src="blob:https://www.blogger.com/b8a32d70-94c3-4594-a380-1658cff4074e" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_2" width="640" /><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">(Note, however, that the Pfizer vaccine has not yet received an Emergency Use Authorization for individuals under the age of 16.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765303"><!--[if !supportLists]-->8.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->How many vaccine doses will be available in the United States?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">It appears that up to 150 million Americans will be able to receive vaccinations of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines over the next six months. That’s less than half the U.S. population, and that is if all goes well.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">We can hope that further improvements in the supply chain, or other vaccines that might become available, will increase the number of Americans who can be vaccinated, and possibly speed up the progression of who can get vaccinated.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Pfizer: Over 3 million doses this week; 100 million does over six months (for 50 million Americans to be vaccinated).<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">The vaccine being produced by Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech, is a two-dose treatment, meaning that 100 million doses is enough to vaccinate only 50 million Americans. Because the Trump Administration declined last summer to contract for additional doses from Pfizer, it may be June or later before Pfizer/BioNTech can supply more doses to the United States. (In comparison, Europe contracted for 200 million doses from Pfizer/BioNTech, and other countries have contracts in place with these firms as well.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Moderna: 200 million doses (for 100 million Americans to be vaccinated) by June 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Of the first 100 million doses purchased by the U.S. government from Moderna, approximately 20 million doses are planned to be delivered by the end of December 2020 and the balance will be delivered in the first quarter of 2021. The very recent new order from the U.S. federal government of 100 million doses will be delivered in the second quarter of 2021. These deliveries are subject, in each case, to receipt of an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the vaccine.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Other vaccines?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Unknown, and difficult to predict. If the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are proven to be safe and effective, it is likely that hundreds of millions of additional vaccine doses will be available in 2021 to Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h2><a name="_Toc58765304"><!--[if !supportLists]-->9.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->How long will it take, following vaccination, for a person to achieve immunity?</a><o:p></o:p></h2><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">You need to have both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines to achieve the highest level of protection. These doses are likely to be given two weeks apart. Additionally, it typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity after vaccination. That means it’s possible a person could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 just before or within days or even weeks after vaccination.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Also, again the early data suggests a very, very high rate of effectiveness for these vaccines – perhaps as high as 95% (or even higher). But neither vaccine will be 100% effective.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><br /></span></p><h1 style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b>C.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></b><!--[endif]--><b>News from Ron and Cathy.<o:p></o:p></b></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Cathy and I were hoping plan a cruise for May 2021, but we have decided to put it off for a year or so, just to be safe. We are hoping, however, that we can be vaccinated, and that the data will demonstrate that it is safe for us to visit our clients during the Summer of 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Our new dog, Roxy, who is a 4-year old, 25lb., Scottish Terrier and Wired-haired Dachshund mix we rescued from the local shelter, has proven to be my “exercise guru” as I continue to work from home. Each day she insists on me taking her for a 1-mile (or so) walk. (On a long leash, she walks about 3 miles, while I walk about one mile.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">This past year I received the Gordon Ford College of Business “Teaching Award” for my efforts at Western Kentucky University. I also received an early promotion to Associate Professor, and tenure. The Fall semester was challenging, as I transitioned to fully online classes, but overall my efforts to become good at online teaching appeared to be well-received by my students. I will continue to teach online in the Spring semester, but will return to in-person instruction in August of 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In September I received “The Tamar Frankel Fiduciary of the Year Prize” award, from the Institute for the Fiduciary Standard. My advocacy for higher standards of conduct for all investment and financial advisors continues, along with my legal research and writing on the fiduciary standard of conduct.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">I’ll relate more news in Part Two of this <i>Special Update</i>, which will be available within a few days. In addition to discussing the economy, the stock market, and interest rates, I’ll explain the (positive) changes occurring in some of the mutual funds from Dimensional Funds Advisors. I’ll also suggest a layer-cake approach for portfolio management for future years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Again, if you have any questions, please feel free to contact Cathy or myself, at any time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">All my best.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 18pt; line-height: 27.6px;">Ron<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Financial Advisor<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Scholar Financial<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> </span></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-41124185827706809492020-11-19T11:13:00.003-05:002021-06-08T11:23:13.861-04:00Proposals for Reforms in Standards of Conduct for Investment Advisers and Broker-Dealers, at the S.E.C. and DOL; Questions on Tax Deferral; and ... Should FINRA Be Disbanded?<div style="border: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Thoughts on Regulatory and Other Reforms in 2021 and Beyond<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">By Ron A. Rhoades</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11pt;">A prior version of this article was originally published at <i><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/09/29/thoughts-on-regulatory-and-other-reforms-in-2020-and-beyond" target="_blank">Advisor Perspectives</a></i></span><i><span style="font-size: 11pt;">.</span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">This is a time of much political and economic upheaval. Yet, it is also a time in which possibilities arise for meaningful change at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“S.E.C.”).</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Just this year we have seen the S.E.C. finalize its interpretation of the Advisers Act fiduciary duties and the implementation of Regulation Best Interest. And we have seen the Department of Labor propose rules that would gut the fiduciary standard found under ERISA. No doubt these are disturbing developments, as the influence of broker-dealers and insurance companies over these government agencies has reached new heights. Cherished principles and established legal precedents have fallen to the whims of those who seek to accommodate Wall Street, under the false mantra of consumer choice, rather than protecting individual investors. Recent rulemakings also deter the proper functioning of our capital markets, making them less efficient in allocating of capital. As regulators accommodate excessive intermediation, less capital is available, substantially dampening U.S. economic growth over the long term.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I suggest a series of questions that policy makers should be asking regarding financial services and other reforms, as we hopefully move forward toward emerging from this pandemic.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Thoughts on the current status of the fiduciary standard</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Some six decades ago, Fred Schwed, Jr. wrote his classic book, <i>Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?</i> Yet, just a few years ago, when taking a group of my college students on a visit to a large broker-dealer firm, I found myself in offices near the top floors of a magnificently tall building overlooking the Hudson from lower Manhattan. As I looked down and saw the many yachts parked in the adjacent harbor, the host of our visit approached and proudly proclaimed that they belonged to many of the brokers who worked there. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In more than 60 years, little has changed.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">We are at a crossroads in terms of the application of the fiduciary standard to the delivery of financial and investment advice. Many insights have been developed over the past decades regarding what the fiduciary standard is all about. Yet, much work remains to be done.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">We have seen regulators in recent years try to adapt the fiduciary standard of conduct to the current business models of Wall Street and the insurance companies. But, predictably, their efforts have failed. You cannot chip away at the fiduciary standard – just a few chips, and the fiduciary standard loses its structure, and collapses into a pile of goo.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There is a simple truth – <i>no person can serve two masters</i>. You cannot be a trusted adviser, bound by a fiduciary duty of loyalty to your client, and also push proprietary or expensive products. The roles of seller’s representative, also known as a product distributor, and purchaser’s representative, also known as a fiduciary, are simply incompatible.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Nor is the fiduciary standard observed properly by mere disclosure when a conflict of interest is present. Disclosures are ineffective, as confirmed by a large body of jurisprudence as well as by more recent academic research into the behavioral biases that both consumers and advisors possess. We also know this from our own collective practical experience as financial advisors … consumers do not often read disclosures, and those few who do simply do not understand the complexities of the modern capital markets. Because of the ineffectiveness of disclosures, the law imposes upon those who provide financial and investment advice, in relationships where trust and confidence exists, tough requirements to be an expert – in other words, adhere to the fiduciary duty of due care. And advisors are likewise bound to the distinctive requirement to act in the “best interests” of the client – in other words, with a fiduciary duty of loyalty.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">So, the law imposes the requirement that, when a conflict of interest is present, the client must provide <i>informed</i> consent to be harmed. Unlike other situations in which fiduciary duties exist, where structures exist to prevent harm, as confirmed by extensive academic research – the greater the fees and costs of an investment product, the lower the returns, especially over the long term, all other things being equal. The result is that the existence of a conflict of interest in the delivery of investment advice – at least where the adviser receives additional compensation for a recommendation of one security or product over another –harms the investor. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Fiduciaries must, therefore, undertake a cost-benefit analysis when applying their expertise in the selection of investment products. Higher cost products are not easily justified. Nor is the differential compensation that often flows from pushing proprietary or expensive products. Why? Because no client would ever provide informed consent to an investment destined to produce lower returns. Judges will never accept the proposition that clients are so gratuitous toward their financial advisers.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Additionally, the law concludes that the treatment of the client would not be substantively fair. These legal principles – informed consent and substantive fairness – substantially limit the application of waiver and estoppel to fiduciary relationships.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It is inevitable that, in applying the “best interests” <i>fiduciary</i> standard of conduct, most conflicts of interest must be avoided. In other words, many of the conflicts of interest in financial services - at least those that generate higher fees for the fiduciary (via higher fees and costs associated with the product selected), are not subject to waiver.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">And, to avoid the intense scrutiny of a fiduciary standard, the compensation provided to the advisor should be reasonable and should not vary based upon the product recommendation made.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The fiduciary standard operates as a limitation of choice. It serves to eliminate bad choices and promotes the best investment choices. In so doing, the fiduciary standard counters opportunism and greed.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">How should we adapt financial services to the fiduciary standard?</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Let me know turn to suggest topics for further exploration in public policy circles.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">A <i>bona fide</i> fiduciary standard of conduct is tough to adhere to in financial services. We need to design regulatory structures that better fit the fiduciary standard, rather than seek to adapt the fiduciary standard to fit current conflict-ridden business structures.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">To this end, it is worthwhile to ask a great many questions, as we look toward the future.</span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">What grant of authority did the S.E.C. possess to change the English language? The term “best interests” has been utilized in over 900 judicial decisions in the United States – as an expression of the fiduciary duty of loyalty. The S.E.C.’s Regulation Best Interest, which by the S.E.C.’s own admission is not a fiduciary standard of conduct, misleads consumers. To promote oneself as acting in one’s best interest – in essence as a fiduciary, while not being a trusted advisor and merely acting as a product salesperson – is tantamount to fraud.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">How can we – and how fast can we – correct the SEC’s flawed interpretation of the fiduciary standard under the Advisers Act? How can we point out that estoppel and waiver possess very limited application to fiduciary-client relationships?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Can we return to the principle that, once a fiduciary relationship is established with a client, the fiduciary duties apply to all aspects of that business relationship? There should neither be a “taking off” of the fiduciary hat nor “switching hats,” particularly by dual registrants.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In what universe is ERISA’s strong trust-law based fiduciary standard, and ERISA’s prohibited transaction rules, reduced to a disclosure-only regime, as the DOL’s recent (proposed) rule would authorize? Where did the DOL get the authority to simply ignore the Congressional mandates for the grant of this proposed class exemption and reduce the interpretation of ERISA’s strong fiduciary standard to be the same as the non-fiduciary standard found in Regulation Best Interest?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">We must ask – Should <i>all</i> financial and investment advisers be bound by a <i>bona fide</i> fiduciary standard of conduct? The State of Massachusetts has taken this approach, excepting only insurance agents, as have some other countries. If this were done, monumental changes would be needed in the securities and insurance industries. To provide truly objective fiduciary advice, one might mandate via law or legislation that fiduciaries must be separate and apart from product manufacturers and product distributors. This would dismantle many of the structures that have evolved in broker-dealer and RIA firms associated with mutual fund companies and other product providers. Would such a sea change be justified? Are the benefits of a <i>bona fide</i> fiduciary standard to our society and economy so profound that we can justify the elimination of many of the business structures that exist, in firms both large and small?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we not insist, at the very minimum, that brokers not disguise the nature of the merchandizing services through the use of titles that denote relationships of trust and confidence? And should we not further insist that the “solely incidental” exemption from the application of the Advisers Act be modified, so that when a relationship of trust and confidence is formed between a broker and his or her customer, the broker becomes subject to the requirements of the Advisers Act?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Or should we take a different regulatory approach? Should we instead seek to distinguish fiduciaries from non-fiduciary advisors? In other words, should we, through carefully crafted and mandated disclosure forms, provide consumers with the status of their advisor? Consumers might be informed, for example, that they are dealing with a trusted fiduciary upon whom they can rely. Or it could be made clear to the consumer that they are dealing with a “restricted advisor” – one who is not a fiduciary, upon whose reliance cannot be placed, and who may offer proprietary products? We need to explore the MiFID regulatory structure put in place in Europe, which imposes similar disclosures, and ascertain the extent of its effectiveness. And we should look to recent reforms put in place in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and other countries for inspiration, and to ascertain the effectiveness of such regulatory efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In order to develop a federal body of law and to better protect investor rights, should Congress enact a private right of action for breach of the fiduciary standard, whether occurring by an investment adviser or a broker?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Reducing conflicts of interest in all areas of financial aervices</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There are many more specific regulatory actions that should be considered to reduce conflicts of interest in financial services, regardless of the application of the fiduciary standard:</span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">For example, Bernie Madoff first developed the practice of payment for order flow. Should we not recognize that payment for order flow is fundamentally a challenge to the duty of best execution?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we acknowledge that many 12b-1 fees are simply advisory fees in drag? Since 12b-1 fees have no real benefit to mutual fund shareholders, should they be eliminated? The original purpose of 12b-1 fees has been lost in history, and 12b-1 fees can easily result in unreasonable compensation over time, as well as consumer confusion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Commissions and 12b-1 fees should not be incentivized by tax law. Should tax law be reformed so that commissions are not added to the cost basis of a security? And should 12b-1 fees be treated as taxable distributions to the owner of the mutual fund shares?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we ban all sales contests, in which any rewards are provided for selling more of any financial products or meeting sales quotas?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we ban payment for shelf space, as well as asset manager’s payment for educational sessions at industry conferences, payment of marketing support dollars, and other “hidden” forms of compensation? Shouldn’t all investment and insurance products compete on their merits, rather than on the basis of how much compensation is paid to the product’s distributor?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">I question why any investment adviser should generate revenue for themselves from the cash holdings of the client. Should not the client’s cash be invested in the best vehicles? Should not conflicts of interest arising from cash holdings be avoided?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">When will regulators realize that the high fees and costs in conflict-ridden sales models are negatively affecting the retirement security of tens of millions of Americans? As retirement nest eggs are smaller, so is the availability of capital to provide fuel for new and existing businesses to form and grow. Given that fees and costs have a monumental adverse effect when compounded over time, when will regulators realize that the adoption of the fiduciary standard will usher in a far better future for the U.S. economy?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Lastly, clients of both investment advisers and brokers believe that their investment nest eggs are managed under a prudent person standard, even if such clients cannot articulate that standard. Should we provide, at a minimum, for full disclosure the duty of care owed? For example, should both investment advisers and brokers be mandated to disclose to their clients and customers whether investment recommendations are undertaken pursuant to the tough prudent investor rule, or the moderately impactful “reasonable basis” standard applicable to investment advisers when not dealing with ERISA-covered accounts, or the very weak “suitability” standard (whether it is called a “Reg BI” standard or not)?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Should FINRA be disbanded?</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Our policymakers should also examine, closely, the ineffectiveness of FINRA in its regulation of the conduct of brokers:</span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In 1941, FINRA acknowledged, in its newsletter, that brokers can possess a fiduciary duty to their customers when a relationship of trust and confidence is present. But this acknowledgement is still not reflected, nearly 80 years later, in FINRA’s rules. Senator Maloney believed that NASD, which has become FINRA, would raise the standards of conduct of brokers to professional levels. Yet, at every turn FINRA has opposed raising standards of conduct. I ask … Is it not time to admit that FINRA’s model of self-regulation is a gross failure? Is it not time to disband FINRA and move market conduct regulation back to the S.E.C. and to the states? Or are we going to endure another eight decades where the standards of conduct for brokers make very little progress?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">By what construct does one ever believe that independent, objective arbitration can be secured when such arbitration is under the control of an industry’s association? Abuses have and will continue to occur. And the perception of most individual investors is that FINRA arbitration is inherently unfair. Should not FINRA arbitration be moved to a separate and completely independent entity?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Or should, at a minimum, Congress mandate a disclosure, akin to what is seen on cigarette packages, such as: “FINRA represents a significant risk to your financial health”?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Reforming retirement plans</span></b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Why do we have so many types of defined-contribution and defined-benefit plans, each with their own legal and tax rules? Why not just have one version of each? And why can’t the government provide a single plan document that can be easily adopted by any plan sponsor?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should corporations be prohibited from issuing dividends or engaging in stock buy-backs when the funding of their pension plans falls below 90%? Are actuaries using appropriate data, such as reasonable estimates of the expected returns of asset classes (that often vary tremendously over 15-year periods, reflecting current asset class valuations and the reversion to the mean phenomenon)?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should more appropriate limits be placed on the funding of certain defined-benefit qualified plans as well as nonqualified retirement plans, when such plans are designed to benefit the owners of closely held firms? Why should highly compensated owners or executives of small firms be permitted to defer $200,000 or more of income each year?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In an era of employee movement from one company to another, should not employer contributions to retirement plans immediately vest?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Also, why can’t we simplify the limits of employer and employee contributions to avoid the necessity in many plans of anti-discrimination testing?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we not limit the contributions made under defined-benefit plans where the bulk of the benefits go to the owner of the business entity?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">At a minimum, can we expand the options for employer matches for SIMPLE IRA plans in order to incentivize employee contributions at greater levels? A 3% match to a 3% employee contribution is an insufficient level of savings for retirement purposes. Can we provide for one-for-one and one-for-two matches for employee contributions up to 12% of the employee’s pay?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">The exemption of governmental 403(b) plans from ERISA’s requirements has wreaked havoc upon the retirement dreams of teachers, in particular. Congress needs to address this issue promptly.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should legislation be enacted in which plan sponsors are relieved from liability under ERISA for decisions relating to the selection of the investments for the plan, provided that they engage an investment adviser and the investment adviser possesses sufficient liability insurance coverage?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In an era in which many Americans possess inadequate savings for retirement, should tontines be permitted, and if so, should they be organized as trusts? Should they be governed by ERISA?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><a></a><a><span><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">We continue to see major abuses in the areas of annuities and the sale of cash-value life insurance for retirement purposes. Should Congress re-visit the regulation of both fixed and fixed-index annuities and classify them as securities?</span></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">And should Congress revisit the safe harbor provided to plan sponsors for annuity products, recognizing that the decision to annuitize is a major decision that should benefit from fiduciary advice, a cost-benefit comparison of annuity products available in the marketplace, and due attention paid to the financial strength of the issuer?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">On the regulation of life insurance and annuities</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should Congress repeal the tax-deferral provisions which benefit nonqualified annuities, at least where annuitization has not occurred?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should Congress require that withdrawals and loans from cash-value life insurance result in taxation of any gains within those policies?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Congress may also need to address annuity and life insurance disclosures as required by state law. Should it be made clear that such disclosures do not prevent other disclosures from taking place, such as those required by a fiduciary in order to fulfill the fiduciary’s obligations to her or his clients?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">And should Congress mandate that no state law may prohibit the rebate to the client of commissions on the sale of insurance products, in order that fiduciaries who are also licensed insurance agents can avoid the conflicts of interest that arise from commission-based compensation?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should Congress also mandate, as state insurance regulators have failed so often to do, that the compensation paid to insurance agents from the sale of life insurance and annuity products be fully disclosed to the customer, in advance?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Initial public offerings</span></span></b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">How can we make initial public offerings of securities more efficient? There are great disparities in the pricing of these offerings, often negatively affecting the amount of capital raised by issuers. The extraordinary hype of many securities offerings often results in detrimental impacts on individual investors.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Does the existence of syndicates for initial public offerings result in less competition among investment banks, in terms of the pricing of IPOs?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In this era of multi-national companies with often dozens of different divisions, how can the financial disclosures in prospectuses and annual reports be more transparent, so that investors can better assess the operations of these companies and their future prospects?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">At the same time, should the frequency of such disclosures be reduced, to align better with regulation in other capital markets around the world, and to reduce corporate costs?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">How is crowd-funding working? Is it efficiently allocating capital? Or are excessive frauds taking place, and if so, are the remedies adequate to deter fraud and for investors to recover?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Investment company reforms</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">In light of the structural impediments to arm's-length bargaining between a mutual fund and its investment adviser, how should Congress modify the Investment Company Act to better ensure that a fund’s board of directors exercise its fiduciary duties to the fund shareholders far more robustly than is currently seen?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should not any compensation received by investment advisers from investment companies, relating to securities lending activities, be part of the management fee? Where did anyone ever get the idea that securities lending revenue deserves to be “shared” with the investment adviser to a fund?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Many bank-affiliated mutual funds have much higher administrative cost structures, with payments of such costs often made to bank subsidiaries. This issue deserves greater scrutiny.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Why shouldn’t portfolio turnover reflect the average of asset sales and purchases within the fund, rather than the lower of the two? And should not transaction costs within funds, as well as certain opportunity costs, be better disclosed if not estimated?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">I question whether investment advisers to investment companies should ever share in the securities lending revenue they generate. Their compensation for these activities should be part of their management fee, and as a result fully transparent.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Questions to pose on tax reform</span></b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">More broadly, in an era of huge federal budget deficits, and the federal debt approaching 150% of GDP (with the actual federal debt, including unfunded future liabilities, much higher), can we justify the tax breaks from Roth accounts? Can we justify any tax-deferral vehicles, including qualified retirement plans and IRAs, given the loss of revenue?:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Given the fact that our private retirement systems have failed to provide retirement security for tens of millions of Americans, should we explore reforms that involve mandated withholdings for individual retirement accounts?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">When will Congress close the carried interest loophole? Does this not incentivize, unfairly, the movement away from publicly traded corporations to private equity? And does this also not unfairly incentivize high-fee hedge funds?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Can we close the loophole for exchange-traded funds, in which they avoid capital gains taxation? Should we not, at a minimum, impose average cost realization of capital gains upon the ETF when securities are delivered in kind? The current tax treatment of ETFs substantially disfavors traditional mutual funds.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Instead of lower taxation of capital gains, should we instead tax gains as ordinary income, but provide an adjustment to cost basis to reflect the rise of the consumer price index? These systems could be established with current technology.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we move away from itemized deductions for home mortgage interest and state and local taxes? These deductions only benefit higher-income Americans. By eliminating these deductions, could we further expand the standard deduction, especially since itemized deductions greatly favor those in higher income tax brackets?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">While lowering the corporate tax rate a few years ago made American companies more profitable as well as more competitive with respect to other countries, much more could have been accomplished. Many of the special tax deductions for various industries could have been eliminated at the same time, and each and every one of these should be revisited.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Would it be more competitive for U.S. corporations, particularly with respect to exports, if we moved to a value-added tax?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">We should examine whether the massive complexity of the Qualified Business Interest Deduction for pass-through entities is necessary; I cannot believe that I pay a lower income tax rate on much of my income in my practice than the tax rate paid by my lower-compensated friends receiving salaries.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Related thereto, should policymakers incentivize the payment of dividends to other corporations and to individual shareholders, by permitting a full dividends-paid deduction? Would reforming this also result in more efficient allocations of capital in our economy?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should we incentivize charitable gifting in better ways, such as by returning to an above-the-line deduction for gifts to charities? Should we incentivize, in particular, gifts to endowment funds that are designed to provide benefits in perpetuity? U.S. economic stability can be enhanced, and the growth of government to meet the needs of its citizens can be reduced and reversed, if we return to the principle that we should collectively save into community trusts to provide for those in legitimate need, especially in times of crisis. Increased savings to provide for future needs is a much better solution to ensuring American progress than is deficit spending.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Should the trustees of the Social Security trust funds be permitted to invest a portion of the funds in a broadly diversified basket of equities, as has occurred successfully in Australia and in some other countries?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Our Social Security and Medicare trust funds have long needed reform. Each passing year has made these reforms more consequential to individual Americans. Rather than continue to punt this problem to future generations, we must undertake reforms that will involve further increases in the retirement age, as well as greater contributions from wage earners, especially higher-wage earners.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Examining regulatory burden</span></b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">We need to examine every regulatory burden imposed upon public corporations and financial services firms. Is each burden – whether it be of disclosure, maintenance of systems or practices – justified? How do our regulatory burdens contrast with those of other countries?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">We must acknowledge that government is designed to be limited in its resources, and that those resources must be applied to deter, detect and correct inappropriate or poor business practices that are likely to cause the most harm. Government cannot be the solution to every problem.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 38.55pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.55pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Finally, we need to get to the point where fiduciary advisers are treated as true professionals. Yes, inspection for asset verification – in other words, for proper custody of client’s assets – should be both robust and frequent. But we must ask – Why can’t independent investment advisers be otherwise treated in a similar manner as CPAs and attorneys? Why must examiners camp out in advisers’ offices, for weeks at a time? Cannot the limited resources of our securities regulators be utilized better?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">My vision for the future</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I have a vision of a future where all financial and investment advisers are fiduciaries, trusted by the public, and where the demand for financial advice soars, as trust in financial advisors grows. All Americans can receive, through some means, the trusted and expert advice they so sorely need. Trusted experts can receive professional-level compensation for their valued services. Investment and product manufacturers can compete on the basis of the overall quality of their offerings, not by providing economic incentives to product distributors through varied means that is often not discerned by investors.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I have a vision where the world of individual and business-entity federal income taxation is simpler and fairer. Important decisions as to investments made by individuals, and the use of capital by corporations, will not be skewed by tax considerations. Those with very high incomes won’t effectively pay lower tax rates than those with substantially less incomes.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I have a vision of the future where greater savings occurs, and each individual American’s investment portfolio reach higher levels, in order to better provide for individual Americans’ retirement and other financial needs. For greater capital will, especially compounded over time, will bring forth much stronger U.S. economic growth over the long run.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">I have a vision where politicians are subject to term limits, so that they will serve the people and always vote their conscience, rather than be worried about their re-election prospects. No corporations nor organizations should undertake contributions to any political cause, and a fixed dollar limit should exist for each individual, each year, as to the total amount they may choose to contribute to any political candidates and causes. To move forward as a country, and to solve our most pressing problems, we must remove the distortions in public policy caused by the infusion of money into politics.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">There remains much work to be done in advancing the fiduciary cause and in pressing common-sense solutions to the many structural problems in government, law and tax policies that hamper the growth of the U.S. economy and its fairness in allocating resources to all of our fellow citizens. This is important work. We are dealing with other’s people money, their lifelong financial needs, and their hopes and dreams.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP® is director of the personal financial planning program and associate professor of finance at the Gordon Ford College of Business, Western Kentucky University.</span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The foregoing remarks represent only my own views, and are not necessarily those of any institution, organization, nor firm with whom I may be associated, nor of any gang, cult, or motley collection of individuals with whom I have ever been associated or have been kicked out of.</span></span></i></p><style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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</style>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-15653662226262152612020-11-16T10:04:00.004-05:002021-06-08T11:23:27.848-04:0019 Ideas to Enhance Retirement Security in the U.S. via Regulatory Reforms<div style="border: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><u><span style="background-color: yellow; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">19 IDEAS FOR LEGISLATION TO PROMOTE RETIREMENT SECURITY</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">As of Sept. 24, 2020<o:p></o:p></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">By Ron A. Rhoades<o:p></o:p></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">For more information or to make recommendations,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">please contact: </span><a href="mailto:ron.rhoades@wku.edu" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">ron.rhoades@wku.edu</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855349" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 1. ERISA Application to Governmental Plans; Conditional Relief from Plan Sponsor Liability.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855350" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 2. Conditional Relief of Small and Large Businesses (and Governmental Entities) from Plan Sponsor Liability Under ERISA.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855351" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 3. Modification of Definition of Fiduciary Under ERISA.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855352" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 4. Providers of Group Education to Retirement Plan Participants: Hold to Fiduciary Standard.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855353" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 5. Application of the Prudent Investor Rule to all Individual Retirement Accounts and all Other Tax-Deferred Investments.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855354" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 6. Provide for Payment of Financial Planning and Investment Advisory Fees from Retirement Accounts.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855355" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 7. Form 5500 Modifications to Increase Product Disclosures, but Reduce Compliance Costs.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855356" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 8. PBGC Multi-Employer Program Financial Condition; Pension Plan Underfunding.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855357" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 9. Simplification of Limit on Contributions to All Defined Contribution Retirement Plans.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855358" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 10. Too Much Funding of Cash Balance and Certain Other Pension Plans (By Owners of Small Companies / Firms).</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855359" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 11. Repeal Tax Provisions Authorizing Nonqualified Retirement Plans – Which Only Benefit the Highly Compensated.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855360" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 12. Simplification and Consolidation of Defined Contribution Plans and Individual Retirement Accounts: Establish a Universal “New Retirement Account” (NERA) for Employers and Employees.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855361" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 13. Simplification of Required Minimum Distribution Rules for Qualified Retirement Accounts, IRAs, and NERAs – and Longer Tax Deferral to Reflect Increases in Longevity</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855362" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 14. Make Uniform the Rules for Early Distributions from All Qualified Retirement Plans and IRAs.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855363" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 15. Defining the Requirements of the Fiduciary Standard.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855364" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 16. Classification of fixed annuity as security.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855365" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 17. The Annuitization Decision Should Require Fiduciary Advice.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855366" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 18. Classification of cash value life insurance as security; prohibition of marketing and sale of cash value life insurance as a retirement savings vehicle.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoToc1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0in 0in 5pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="applewebdata://E0971434-C958-404B-8CDE-E564CE07C159#_Toc51855367" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Section 19. Modification of tax treatment of withdrawals from cash value life insurance.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p><style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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</style><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><br clear="all" style="break-before: page;" /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855349">Section 1. ERISA Application to Governmental Plans; Conditional Relief from Plan Sponsor Liability.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: School teachers have horrible 403(b) plans. ERISA does not apply. School districts don’t screen investment providers, for if they do the school district becomes subject to ERISA liability as a plan sponsor. In addition, many public colleges and universities, as well as other state and local governmental plans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Authorize school districts and other governmental employers, and churches, to elect to have ERISA apply. But avoid liability by adopting the same relief as provided in the proposal set forth in Section 2, below.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Governmental plans should be required to submit Form 5500 (with modifications, as set forth below), but would be exempt from any audit requirement.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855350">Section 2. Conditional Relief of Small and Large Businesses (and Governmental Entities) from Plan Sponsor Liability Under ERISA.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: We want to encourage employers to offer defined contribution plans. But employers become subject to ERISA liability, as to the investment choices made in the plan. Worse yet, the “retirement plan consultant” and broker or insurance agent who recommends the investment choices is shielded by the low “suitability” standard – and is usually dismissed early on from class action lawsuits brought by employees – leaving the employer holding the bag. Business owners are not investment experts. But someone should be held accountable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Have all plan sponsors of defined contribution plans avoid liability for investment recommendations under ERISA – provided they hire a 3(38) investment manager (who would be a fiduciary), and that investment manager has adequate malpractice (E&O, or liability) insurance, including sufficient “tail” coverage, in amount and duration as determined by the DOL.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">This proposed change would dramatically alter the liability of plan sponsors, who have paid over $6 billion in settlements from 2006 through 2018 (per NAPA “ERISE Litigation Tab: $6.2 billion.” April 15, 2019). The fact of the matter is that businesses – both large and small – do not possess the expertise to navigate the complexities of ERISA, including its prudent investor rule, given the complexity of the capital markets today and the often-hidden fees and costs embedded in many mutual fund and other investment and insurance products today.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855351">Section 3. Modification of Definition of Fiduciary Under ERISA.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Many non-fiduciaries provide investment recommendations to ERISA plan sponsors, who are not fiduciaries under the DOL’s five-part test.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Modify the statute, to make <b><u>everyone</u></b> providing investment recommendations to defined contribution accounts and IRA accounts a fiduciary, except those who only describe their investment or insurance products.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">However, a <b>limited exclusion</b> would exist for those who sell investment products, either as a product manufacturer (i.e., mutual fund company) or distributor (broker-dealer firm, insurance agent or insurance broker). Why? In the United States we have a very pro-free markets society. There should always be a place for “product sellers” in our capital markets system, in my view. I doubt that we, as a society, are currently willing to impose broad fiduciary duties upon all those who provide investment recommendations. Many current business models would be incompatible with such a universal application of fiduciary standards. It is difficult, if not impossible, to reconcile a product provider’s status as the manufacturer or seller of a product, when also imposing fiduciary duties upon such product provider. The roles are simply incompatible.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Yet, as Alexander Hamilton once wrote, “If all men were angels, no government would be necessary.” Hence, rather than stating that there is no role to play for those who desire to sell products (or provide any information regarding same, either as a product manufacturer or as a product distributor), instead impose requirements for such an exemption that clearly denotes the role of product salespersons and the potential ramifications should a consumer seek to rely upon the “recommendations” provided by such product salespeople:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l9 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(A)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">REQUIREMENTS FOR INVESTMENT / INSURANCE PRODUCT SALES EXEMPTION FOR PROVIDING RECOMMENDATIONS TO PLAN SPONSORS:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 15.3333px; margin-left: 0.75in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l8 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Provide a written disclosure, in a form devised by DOL (which disclosure form should be tested to ensure consumer understanding) to the recipient (plan sponsor, plan participant, IRA account owner, etc.) of any investor education or the description of any investment product or strategy, which includes these statements:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(a)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">I/we are providing only a description of investment and/or insurance products to you, the plan sponsor. We are <u>not</u> recommending these products for inclusion in your retirement plan.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(b)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">These investment and/or insurance products may or may not meet the requirements of ERISA’s application of the prudent investor rule, the requirements of which include (but are not limited to) broad diversification in investment portfolios and no waste of the assets of the plan participants (as may occur through higher-cost or higher-fee investment or insurance products, when similar lower-cost or lower-fee investment or insurance products are available).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(c)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">I/we are not acting as in a fiduciary capacity. Rather, our relationship is “arms-length,” as exists between most sellers and purchasers of products. In such situations, “caveat emptor” (i.e., “let the buyer beware) applies, and only limited duties (such as the duty to avoid misrepresentations) apply to me/us as the investment or insurance provider.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(d)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">I/we will, in all likelihood, <u>not</u> be liable should you (as plan sponsor), nor to the plan or the plan participants (employees, retirees, etc.), should you choose our investment or insurance products – and should you incur liability to plan participants (employees, retirees, etc.) on account of inclusion of these insurance or investment products as part of your retirement plan.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l7 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(e)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In contrast, if you engage a 3(38) fiduciary under ERISA, which fiduciary meets the requirements of regulations adopted under ERISA providing for relief from liability for plan sponsors for the selection of investment and insurance products for the retirement plan, then your liability as plan sponsor for such selection of investment and insurance products would be limited.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 15.3333px; margin-left: 0.75in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l8 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Not utilize the terms “retirement plan” or “401(k)” or “IRA” or “403(b)” or “qualified plan” (or similar terms connoting a retirement plan or other tax-deferred account which is subject to either ERISA or the requirements of the prudent investor rule” in association with the terms “consultant,” “advisor,” “adviser,” “manager,” or other terms.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 15.3333px; margin-left: 0.75in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l8 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Not market (as a firm or individual) in any manner to the plan sponsor as a fiduciary, or as a consultant or advisor to plan sponsors or plan participants, or as a manager or designer of prudent portfolios. And also not market in any fashion (as a firm or individual) that the firm or individual acts in the “sole interest” or “best interest” of the plan sponsor or plan participant, or keeps the interest of the plan sponsor or plan participant paramount to those of the firm or individual, or similar phrases that denote or imply that a fiduciary relationship exists (whether or not such terms are authorized or required by any other law or regulation).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 15.3333px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l8 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Not engage in the ongoing monitoring of investment portfolios, nor their management.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 15.3333px; margin-left: 0.75in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l9 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(B)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">REQUIREMENTS FOR PRODUCT SALES EXEMPTION FROM FIDUCIARY REQUIREMENTS FOR PROVIDERS OF INVESTMENT OR INSURANCE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PLAN PARTICIPANTS, IRA ACCOUNT OWNERS OR BENEFICIARIES, ETC.:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-left: 1in;"><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">A form, and definitional text, is set forth in <span style="background-color: yellow; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Exhibit A</span> to this document. Modification of this form to be specific to investment accounts which are either subject to ERISA or subject to the prudent investor rule (as suggested for IRAs, elsewhere in this document) could be undertaken. However, a broader reform of the regulation of brokers and investment advisers could be considered, and might be more appropriate.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855352">Section 4. Providers of Group Education to Retirement Plan Participants: Hold to Fiduciary Standard.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Financial planning and investment advice can be cost-effectively delivered to many plan participants via group educational sessions. Yet, there exists an exemption from the application of fiduciary duties to the delivery of investment education.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">We should acknowledge that group “educational seminars” and even advice delivered via financial planning software, educational videos, and materials, is still <i>advice</i> – that plan participants rely upon often. It makes sense that education therefore be provided under a fiduciary standard.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Provide that all education given to plan participants be provided under a fiduciary standard. This includes education on financial planning needs, budgeting, savings, tax consequences of various saving and investment vehicles, asset allocation, the use of target date funds, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">As indicated above, a very limited exemption should exist for the delivery of information about specific investment or insurance products by non-fiduciary product manufacturers or sellers. The disclosures set forth above may be appropriately modified for this purpose. However, such non-fiduciary product manufacturers or sellers should not provide educational seminars (and certain other educational videos, materials) to plan participants. Their activities should be much more greatly limited.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855353">Section 5. Application of the Prudent Investor Rule to all Individual Retirement Accounts and all Other Tax-Deferred Investments.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Individual retirement accounts (including Roth IRAs, SIMPLE IRAs, SEP IRAs) and certain other types of retirement accounts and plans not subject to ERISA (including state-governed defined benefit and defined contribution plans, health savings accounts, Coverdell accounts, and 529 college savings accounts), are not governed by the prudent investor rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Yet, substantial economic incentives exist for non-fiduciary providers of investment and insurance products to move assets to accounts not governed by ERISA’s requirements, in order to sell high-cost products. The Internal Revenue Code provides many tax-deferred investment and insurance accounts or products designed for retirement purposes with special tax treatment. In some instances, tax-deferred accounts can become tax-free account vehicles (such as Roth accounts, health savings accounts, 529 college savings accounts), when distributions occur for approved purposes. The major benefits of such favorable tax treatment should not be offset by imprudent investments.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Apply to all tax-deferred investment and insurance products the prudent investor rule, as it has been interpreted under ERISA. This includes not just IRA accounts, but also non-ERISA qualified retirement plans, as well as nonqualified plans, nonqualified variable annuities, and tax-deferred fixed index annuities and fixed annuities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Note that doing this would likely remove the concerns about IRA rollovers. IRAs would not be subject to ERISA, but would be subject to the very strong prudent investor rule.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855354">Section 6. Provide for Payment of Financial Planning and Investment Advisory Fees from Retirement Accounts.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Increasingly individual advice relating to financial planning and investments is provided to plan participants. While some of this advice is provided through educational materials and videos, and other through consumer-accessed and consumer-inputted financial or investment planning software, it is clear that individual advice to plan participants is often highly desired, either at the time of enrollment in the retirement plan, or at the time of retirement, or in between.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Financial planning and investment advice is typically inter-related. For example, advice on budgeting and better decisions on expenditures leads to increased savings (and increased investments, often). Decisions as to whether to utilize extra funds to pay down debt, versus establish a cash reserve, or fund a health savings account (instead of additional contributions to a defined contribution account) are also important pre-conditions to the delivery of investment advice. Establishing lifetime goals leads to determination of how much to save and invest to achieve those goals. In contrast, some aspects of financial planning – such as estate planning recommendations relating to the making of a will or living trust – bear lesser relationship to the delivery of investment advice. (Although, arguably, the decision to spend money on obtaining an estate plan from an attorney, is a decision relating to finances and investments).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Many retirement plan accounts do not currently permit the deduction of investment advisory fees for individual (one-on-one) investment and financial advice. Many plan participants (even higher-income individuals and couples) do not possess significant cash or other holdings in non-taxable accounts to pay for investment and financial planning advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The value of good financial planning and investment advice can be extraordinary, in terms of assisting individuals to attain their lifetime goals, if it is done by those qualified to do so, and if the fees for such are reasonable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Expressly provide that all plan sponsors shall provide for the payment of investment advisory and financial planning advice from qualified retirement accounts, and from IRA accounts, without such payment being treated as a taxable distribution, provided:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo8; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The provider of the investment and/or financial planning advice is a fiduciary to the client, extending to all aspects of the fiduciary-client business relationship;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo8; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fees paid may be a flat amount (paid in annual, quarterly, or monthly, or upon completion of a financial plan or financial planning activity), or an hourly fee.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo8; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">(3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fees paid are reasonable for the services provided.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Note that I do not suggest that “assets under management” or “assets under advisement” fees be authorized. These fees can become unreasonable in amount, in many instances, given that the amount of services does not increase at the same rate as the fees increase, even with tiered levels, in many investment adviser fee schedules. In addition, percentage fees can easily be converted into flat monthly, quarterly or annual fees, which are better understood by consumers. (Commissions and 12b-1 fees can also easily be converted into flat fees, and paid by the client directly; but this is a subject for another time.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">For example, a 1% annual fee on a $25,000 account could easily be transformed by a fiduciary advisor into a flat fee ($250), or even a fee per month ($20.83 per month).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A question arises as to how much a burden this would place upon plan sponsors or third-party administrators. I suggest, instead, that the burden of distributing fees be imposed upon the custodian, directly. Essentially, any plan participant could submit a form (online, in all likelihood) to the custodian that authorizes payment of a flat amount, or a recurring flat amount (per month or quarter). (Whether recordkeepers be involved in this process, as recordkeepers typically possess the online interface to the accounts, could be considered, instead.) A small fee for each distribution (or series of distributions) for payment of fees, to the custodian and/or recordkeeper, could be instituted to offset any additional costs incurred. In my view, fees for personalized investment and financial advice, nor any additional costs relating to payment of such fees, should not be spread out among all plan participants.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855355">Section 7. Form 5500 Modifications to Increase Product Disclosures, but Reduce Compliance Costs.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem #1: These exists inadequate disclosure of the investments in many qualified investment plans. The short-form Form 5500 should include such disclosures. Providing this information would alert the Department, as well as advocates for plan participants, to the presence of investment or insurance products that may not meet ERISA’s requirements, including the requirements of the prudent investor rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: The DOL shall include in all Form 5500s required to be filed, the requirement to provide a list of the name of each investment option in the plan, its ticker symbol (if applicable), and the amount of assets held in such investment option. For any investment or insurance product that does not possess a ticker symbol, a link shall be provided, by the product provider, to a non-secured web site in which is set forth adequate information regarding the product as the DOL may require by rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">At the same time, Form 5500 (in all of its versions) should also be reviewed to ascertain if there are certain sections that don’t lead to meaningful disclosures – i.e., the cost of completion of the section is not justified by the benefits (in the form of corrective actions that could be identified by the DOL, during reviews, etc.).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem #2: The annual audit requirement imposes a substantial cost upon providers of many smaller plans. This deters the formation and maintenance of retirement plans by some plan sponsors. The question exists as to whether the annual audit requirement provides sufficient benefits, to plan participants, to justify such costs for smaller plan sponsors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Raise the amount of plan assets necessary to trigger the annual audit requirement to a much larger amount. Also, require the DOL to study the benefits of each activity and/or report (or section thereof) undertaken as part of the annual independent audit, to determine if the scope of the annual audit can be diminished, as a means of potentially lowering the cost of annual audits.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855356">Section 8. PBGC Multi-Employer Program Financial Condition; Pension Plan Underfunding.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: PBGC Solvency Concerns.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">As stated in the DOL’s “2020 Major Savings and Reforms” section of its PBGC FY 2020 report: “The multiemployer program covers over 10 million participants and is in dire financial condition. The 2018 multiemployer program deficit was $54 billion, with only $2 billion in assets and $56 billion in liabilities. PBGC projects the multiemployer program will be insolvent by the end of 2025, at which point participants in insolvent plans would see their guaranteed benefits cut by as much as 90 percent. Multiemployer premiums are very low—a flat rate of just $29 per participant in 2019.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Per an article in CFO.com, “According to a Willis Towers Watson study of defined benefit pension plans sponsored by 376 U.S.-based Fortune 1000 companies, their aggregate funded status barely inched up last year, reaching an estimated 87%. That was only a single percentage point higher than the funded status level at the end of 2018. The analysis found that those sponsors’ collective pension deficit was estimated to be $216 billion at the end of 2019, slightly lower than the $222 billion deficit a year earlier.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Yet, many multi-employer plans are likely to go bankrupt within the next five years, according to news reports. From the CFO.com January 2020 article: “‘If we unexpectedly enter another recession, and the five-year Treasury is trading at 1%, and equities give up part of their recent gains, that’s a really painful scenario for pensions,’ Bob Browne, chief investment officer at Northern Trust [stated] in mid-2019.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The risk to the PBGC deficit is huge, yet action is not being taken. Some observers are suggesting that Congress bail out the PBGC – which of course shifts burdens away from corporations and onto taxpayers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The better solution is to attack the problem itself – the underfunding of pension (defined benefit) plans by corporations, large and small. The PBGC should be viewed as an extreme savior of last resort, rather than a savior.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: “No corporation shall pay dividends to its shareholders, nor engage in stock buybacks, when its defined benefit plans possess a funding level which is below 90% of the desired funding level, as determined by appropriate actuarial analyses.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Note that the standard of 80% target for funding, implemented by the Pension Protection Act of 2006, should not be acceptable, for a plan to be “actuarially sound.” For large multi-employer plans, this could easily result in billions and billions of unfunded liabilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Related Problem: The “valuation interest rate” used by actuaries fails to adequately consider the future expected returns of various asset classes. Currently, many actuaries are projecting returns for U.S. stocks of 5% to 10% over the next 10 years, and projecting long-term U.S. Treasury bond returns at 2%, while many investment analysts project U.S. stock returns to be in the low single digits and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds returns to be negative over the same time period.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The underfunding amount for both public and private pension plans should not be substantially affected by short-term fluctuations in the values of asset classes. For example, if the stock holdings of a plan fall in value over the course of a year, such as by 20%, then the expected return of stocks (assuming mean reversion) should increase, so that any impact upon the plan and its funding ratios is minor. (Changes in the macroeconomic environment do, however, affect projected rates of returns, over the long term; but this is different than changes in asset class valuations, which are often – but not always – disconnected from macroeconomic events.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">While there can be a wide variance of the estimates of future returns of various asset classes, it is becoming more accepted in finance that reversion to the mean of asset class valuations is more likely to be achieved over a 17-year time frame.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><br />Solution: GAAP accounting standards might be directed to better consider 17-year mean reversions in asset class valuations, whenever the valuation interest rate is calculated, as a factor in determining near-term investment asset class returns for purpose of undertaking the “valuation interest rate.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855357">Section 9. Simplification of Limit on Contributions to All Defined Contribution Retirement Plans.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Different rules exist for how much can be contributed to defined contribution plans, especially when the employee has two jobs, has a spouse who is working, etc. These rules are extraordinarly complex, and often lack logic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: The maximum contribution, by both employer and employee, to all defined contribution plans in which the employee participates, is $25,000 per year, such sum to be adjusted for inflation using the measure of CPI-U, in $1,000 increments, each year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">[There can be discussions about the deferral amount: is it too large, or too small? What is the effect of establishing different maximum funding levels on the national budget, and on state budgets?]<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855358">Section 10. Too Much Funding of Cash Balance and Certain Other Pension Plans (By Owners of Small Companies / Firms).</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Imagine electing to defer, in a qualified retirement plan, over $200,000 a year. Yet, that is what happens in some small businesses, where the owner is older and employees are generally younger, using a 401(k) paired with a cash balance plan. While technically a defined benefit plan, the contributed amounts are held in separate accounts – like a defined contribution plan. The ability to do this could be viewed as abusive and/or unfair to many individual taxpayers who don’t possess the ability to do this.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Provide that the maximum contribution to any separately maintained defined benefit plan account must fit with the annual limit to defined contribution plans, with the new combined limits suggested previously applied.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855359">Section 11. Repeal Tax Provisions Authorizing Nonqualified Retirement Plans – Which Only Benefit the Highly Compensated.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problems: Executives often defer hundreds of thousands of dollars of their salaries by means of nonqualified retirement plans. The result is often the lowering of income tax burdens, to retirement years (when earned compensation is lower), resulting in some of the compensation being taxed for federal income tax purposes at very low tax rates. Additionally, for nonqualified retirement plans paid out over 10 years, the executive can avoid state income tax by moving to a state with a lower marginal state income tax rate (or none at all, such as in the case of Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc.). Is this fair to rank-and-file employees, who don’t have access to such nonqualified retirement plans? Is it fair to the budgets of federal and state governments?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Prohibit nonqualified retirement plans in which tax deferral occurs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855360">Section 12. Simplification and Consolidation of Defined Contribution Plans and Individual Retirement Accounts: Establish a Universal “New Retirement Account” (NERA) for Employers and Employees.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: We have a dizzying array of defined contribution plans, each with their own set of rules for qualification, contributions, distributions, and plan maintenance. See, for example, </span><a href="https://www.rbcwm-usa.com/resources/file-687843.pdf"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">https://www.rbcwm-usa.com/resources/file-687843.pdf</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">for just some of the plans. Large costs are paid to establish and maintain these plans. Experts exist (and are well-paid) to determine for many employers the best type of plan or combination of plans, which features to utilize, etc. Third-party administrators are engaged to file annual plan amendments.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Provide for all defined contribution plans and IRAs to become one: “New Retirement Account” (NERA), possibly with a Roth option. DOL could provide a model form for plan adoption, similar to Form 5305-SIMPLE, but with the following provisions and options:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Employers may match any percentage of an employee’s contributions. Employer may increase or decrease the amount of the employer’s contributions at any time, with notice to employees.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Employers may undertake contributions without a match.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Employees may undertake contributions without a match.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The maximum contribution, by both employer and employee, to all defined contribution plans in which the employee participates, is $25,000 per year, such sum to be adjusted for inflation using the measure of CPI-U, in $1,000 increments, each year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The contribution limit described above could be made either to traditional or Roth accounts, without limitation (assuming Roth accounts are continued; see discussion elsewhere).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Auto-enrollment occurs (opt out by new employees is provided).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Auto-escalation is required (unless opted out by the employee, at any time).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">All employer contributions vest immediately. (No more vesting schedules, to reflect the increased mobility of employees in our society.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Loans from plans could be undertaken, but only twice a year, and only for purposes of financial hardship. A certification form delivered to the custodian would be all that is required to secure the loan. All loans would be required to be repaid, with 5% set interest, within five years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Early distribution provisions would be uniform (as suggested elsewhere).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Distributions for early retirement could be taken, at any time, in the annual amount of 4% of the previous Dec. 31<sup>st</sup>plan balance, without penalty. However, any person with earned income in excess of $40,000 per year (or $80,000 per married couple, filing jointly) would be prohibited from taking early distributions. (Such assumes to be adjusted annually for inflation.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The penalty for not taking a required distribution (age 72 or later) would be reduced from 50% to 20% of the amount of the tax liability.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Nondeductible contributions would be prohibited (except to Roth IRA accounts).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">These and other options could be set forth in an online form for the registration of all NERA accounts (and/or plans). The generation of a “summary plan description” as a result of the options chosen could then automatically occur, along with any required notices to employees.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In addition, legislation should increase the portability of such accounts. There would be no need to rollover upon separation from employment; just disconnect the account from the employer’s system and keep at the same custodian.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Rollovers from 401(k) and 403(b) plans into IRA accounts are often delayed by weeks or months, as various parties (employers, TPAs, recordkeepers) coordinate their efforts. Often funds held in a plan are liquidated, and a check sent to the employee. This creates tax burdens in some instances, and increases the likelihood of non-rollover of plan balances. It may also result in the plan participant being “out of the market” for a period of time, thereby incurring the investment risk of such. All of these problems would be solved by simplification.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Legislation could provide for an effective date, perhaps with a series of dates for various plan sponsors to terminate existing plans, establish the new NERA plan and accounts, and undertake transfers. For example, some employers may have a Jan. 1<sup>st</sup> date, others a Feb. 1<sup>st</sup> date, etc. This would reduce the burdens on those providing advice and services relating to such plan terminations, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Tax reporting could be modified to list contributions to retirement plans as an above-the-line deduction, consistently, rather than as an exclusion from income. This would make it easier to determine, when filing tax returns, if the contribution limits for any taxpayer have been breached. (In the event of breach, removal of the excess contributed amounts, along with any pro rata gain, should be permitted to occur within a reasonable time.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Note that this standard form for the “NERA” and the resulting simplification for the establishment and maintenance of plan documentation would greatly simplify the administration of many defined contribution plans. No longer would there be a need for a third-party administrator. And no longer would there be a need for tax credits to small businesses to assist with paying the costs of such a plan (the maximum tax credit is now $5,000, each year, for up to 3 years).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855361">Section 13. Simplification of Required Minimum Distribution Rules for Qualified Retirement Accounts, IRAs, and NERAs – and Longer Tax Deferral to Reflect Increases in Longevity</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Despite recent legislative reforms and proposed IRS regulations, required minimum distribution rules remain complex, and the current uniform table forces very large distributions commencing when a person is in their late 80’s – often causing a much higher rate of tax. Additionally, people are destined to live much longer. It is quite possible that tens of millions of Americans will soon live to age 100 or beyond, and advances in aging research may well result in many individuals living significantly longer.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Also, most individuals desire to pass along their “nest egg” to their heirs. Under recently adopted reforms, inherited IRAs and retirement account balances must be distributed within 10 years by the account beneficiary (with certain exceptions for minors, special needs beneficiaries, etc.).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Provide for required minimum distributions of 4% of the prior 12/31 balance commencing at age 72, and for each year thereafter. This would increase the amount of the distribution for those in their early seventies, but decrease the amount of the distribution for older beneficiaries. There would be less risk of “running out of money” before “running out of time.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855362">Section 14. Make Uniform the Rules for Early Distributions from All Qualified Retirement Plans and IRAs.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Different exceptions exist for different types of defined contribution accounts, as to avoiding penalties. As a result, different types of employees are treated differently (unfairly), and “tax traps” (such as the SIMPLE IRA 2-year from start of participation penalty for rollovers) exist for the unwary.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Simplify and make uniform the early withdrawal rules, for all defined contribution and IRA accounts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855363">Section 15. Defining the Requirements of the Fiduciary Standard.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: The SEC generally takes the view that the fiduciary duties of investment advisers are limited, as they are only “implied” from the Advisers Act. In addition, we have seen that the SEC has emphasized disclosures of conflicts of interest, rather than their avoidance.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In any future legislation, under ERISA or more broadly, the broad fiduciary duties of due care, loyalty, and utmost good faith could be more expressly set forth.</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">a)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><u><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">(Delineation of the Duties of Fiduciaries When Investment Advice is Provided.)</span></u><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> When a fiduciary standard of conduct applies, such investment advice shall be provided in the best interests of the client, observing the fiduciary duties owed to the client by such broker-dealer, agent, or adviser acting in such fiduciary capacity. The fiduciary duties possessed by such fiduciary in connection with the provision of such investment advice include, but are not limited to:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.3in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Duty of due care.</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> The fiduciary must provide advice that reflects the due care, skill, prudent and diligence under the circumstances then prevailing that a prudent person acting in a like capacity and familiar with such matters would use in the conduct of an enterprise of a like character and with like aims, based on the investment objectives, risk tolerance, risk capacity, need to take on risk, financial circumstances, and other needs of the client. In connection therewith:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">a.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Where ongoing monitoring of the client’s investment portfolio (or any portion thereof) is to be provided, there exists the duty to provide advice and monitoring over the course of the relationship.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">b.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The duty of due care includes a duty to make a reasonable inquiry into a client’s financial situation, level of financial sophistication, investment experience, and investment objectives (which is referred to collectively as the client’s “investment profile”) and a duty to provide personalized advice that is suitable for and in the best interest of the client based on the client’s investment profile. The nature and extent of the inquiry by the fiduciary turn on what is reasonable under the circumstances, including the nature and extent of the agreed-upon advisory services, the nature and complexity of the anticipated investment advice, and the investment profile of the client. The fiduciary must update a client’s investment portfolio periodically in order to adjust the fiduciary’s advice to reflect any changed circumstances. The frequency with which the adviser must update the information in order to consider changes to any advice the adviser provides would turn on many factors, including whether the adviser is aware of events that have occurred that could render inaccurate or incomplete the investment profile on which it currently bases its advice. For example, a change in the relevant tax law or knowledge that the client has retired or experienced a change in marital status might trigger an obligation to make a new inquiry.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">c.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The cost (including fees and compensation) associated with investment advice and the recommended investments would generally be one of many important factors – such as the investment product’s or strategy’s investment objectives, characteristics (including any special or unusual features), liquidity, risks and potential benefits, volatility and likely performance in a variety of market and economic conditions – to consider when determining whether a security or investment strategy involving a security or securities is in the best interest of the client. Accordingly, the fiduciary duty does not necessarily require an adviser to recommend the lowest cost investment product or strategy. However, a recommended security is in the best interest of a client if it is higher cost than a security that is otherwise nearly identical or substantially similar. Given the substantial academic evidence supporting the proposition that higher-cost investment products on average provide lower returns than similar low-cost investment products, an examination of the fees and costs of the investment product is likely to be a primary consideration. However, a fiduciary would not satisfy its fiduciary duty to provide advice with due care by simply advising its client to invest in the least expensive product or strategy without any further analysis of other factors in the context of the client’s investment portfolio and the client’s investment profile.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">d.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fiduciary must conduct a reasonable investigation into the investment strategy and financial product that is sufficient to ensure that the fiduciary not base the advice on materially inaccurate or incomplete information.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">e.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fiduciary possesses a duty to seek best execution.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">f.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In assessing the due care undertaken by the fiduciary, the fiduciary shall be judged as an expert in the provision of investment advice, as the standard of due care is relational. While not conclusive, industry association standards are often highly probative when further defining the standard of care.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.3in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Duty of loyalty.</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> The fiduciary provides investment advice that is in the best interests of the client, and such advice is without regard to the financial or other interests of the broker-dealer, agent, adviser, or their affiliated entities. In connection therewith:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">(a)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fiduciary cannot favor its own interests over those of a client, whether by favoring its own accounts or by favoring certain client accounts that pay higher fee rates to the adviser over other client accounts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">(b)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fiduciary must reasonably seek to avoid conflicts of interest with its clients. The fiduciary owes the obligation to the client to not be in a position where there is a substantial possibility of conflict between self-interest and duty. The fiduciary duty of loyalty requires the fiduciary to adopt the client’s goals, objectives, or ends.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">(c)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">However, not all conflicts of interest can reasonably be avoided, and whenever a material conflict of interest exists the fiduciary shall comply with all of the following requirements:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 135.35pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -135.35pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fiduciary shall affirmatively disclose to the client the conflict of interest, all material facts relating thereto, and the ramifications of the conflict of interest for the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A fact is considered material if there is a substantial likelihood that a reasonable investor would consider the information to be important in making an investment decision<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The disclosure must be timely; it must be provided prior to the completion of the transaction that is contemplated.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The disclosure must be undertaken affirmatively to the client. Access to the disclosure by the client, alone and without more, is not affirmatively undertaken disclosure. The fiduciary must ensure that the disclosure is received and reviewed by the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The disclosure must be sufficient for the client to be clearly advised and obtain full understanding of the conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The disclosure must be frank, full and forthright. The disclosure must lay bare the truth, without ambiguity or reservation, in all its stark significance.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 135.35pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -135.35pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The fiduciary must ensure that the client achieves an understanding of the conflict of interest, the material facts relating thereto, and the ramifications of the conflict of interest to the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 135.35pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -135.35pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The client must provide informed consent. Mere consent to a breach of fiduciary obligation does not suffice. Mere consent does not permit the fiduciary to avail themselves of the defenses of estoppel and waiver in an action involving breach of a fiduciary obligation, due both to public policy considerations (the foremost objective of securities laws being to protect investors). The client’s consent must be intelligent, independent and informed. It shall be presumed that no client would ever consent to be harmed, nor would any client undertake gratuitous transfers to his or her fiduciary.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 135.35pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -135.35pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iv.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Additionally, the transaction proposed to the client must be, and must remain, substantively fair to the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 135.35pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -135.35pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>v.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The transaction is exempt from the prohibited transaction rules found under ERISA, when ERISA applies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.3in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Duty of utmost good faith</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">. The fiduciary must exercise the utmost good faith in the fiduciary’s dealings with the client. This requires the fiduciary to act with the highest degree of honesty and candor toward the client, and to not act recklessly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.3in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iv.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Duty to receive only reasonable compensation.</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> The recommended course of action or transaction will not cause the broker-dealer, agent, or adviser to receive, either directly or indirectly (including but not limited to receipt of compensation by affiliated entities), to receive compensation which is in excess of reasonable compensation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.3in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>v.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Duty to not undertake any misleading statements.</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Any statements or other communications made to the client (including prior to the time of entry into the fiduciary-client relationship) regarding any recommended transactions, investment strategies, financial products, fees and compensation received by the fiduciary, material conflicts of interest, and any other matter relevant and material to the client’s investment decisions, will not be materially misleading at the time such statements are made.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855364">Section 16. Classification of fixed annuity as security.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Problem: Fixed annuities, including but not limited to fixed indexed annuities, are used as investments. They should be regulated by the SEC, and subjected to similar disclosure regimes. This would not apply to annuities where full annuitization, over a term of years or life expectancy(ies), or some combination thereof, has occurred.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Solution: Redefine “security” accordingly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855365">Section 17. The Annuitization Decision Should Require Fiduciary Advice.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: The decision to annuitize a portion of a retiree’s nest egg is a very complicated, and very impactful, decision. A wide variety of alternatives exist, as to the method of annuitization. For example, should an inflation rider (of which there are many types) be sought? Should annuitization occur in stages? Should a delayed annuitization method be chosen?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The financial strength of the insurance company, and the existence of state guaranty programs (and concerns about their lack of funding, should a substantial adverse economic event occur), the health of the retiree (and spouse), the future returns of various asset classes, the current interest rate environment, and much more come into play. In addition, great value can be achieved by shopping annuities in the marketplace, rather than relying upon one annuity provider selected months, or years, earlier by the plan sponsor.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">While annuitization of a portion of a person’s nest egg possesses benefits, in terms of managing longevity risk, newer research indicates that the benefits of annuitization may not be as great as suggested by some academic research (some of which research has been funded by insurance companies).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">While education about annuitization should be undertaken of retirees, including projected internal rates of returns (if certain ages are achieved), it is best that such education be provided by a person held to an expert standard of care, and who possesses a fiduciary duty of loyalty to the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Remove the ability to annuitize from within a qualified retirement plan. Provide, instead, education about the decision, to retirees, by the providers of education and advice to plan participants. Require, for the annuitization of tax-deferred investment accounts, that the annuitant receive fiduciary advice prior to proceeding with such annuitization.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855366">Section 18. Classification of cash value life insurance as security; prohibition of marketing and sale of cash value life insurance as a retirement savings vehicle.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Problem: Likewise, cash value life insurance is sold as a form of investment. More problematic is the fact that, despite the mid-1990’s scandals regarding the sale of cash value life insurance to teachers as a retirement savings vehicle, this still occurs – a lot!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Solution: Redefine “security” to include all forms of cash value life insurance.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Alternative Solution: Prohibit the marketing and sale of cash value life insurance for purposes of providing future retirement savings.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><h1><a name="_Toc51855367">Section 19. Modification of tax treatment of withdrawals from cash value life insurance.</a><o:p></o:p></h1><h1><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></h1><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Insurance agents push cash value life insurance (which is extra-ordinarily expensive, in terms of its fees and costs) as a “retirement savings vehicles” to unsuspecting teachers, and many more. They promote the ability to withdraw contributions to the life insurance policy (i.e., the cost basis) “tax-free” during retirement, and promote loans from the policy thereafter. A huge “tax trap” comes into play here … cash value policies often “implode” and cause a huge tax burden when they lapse.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Solve this abuse by changing the tax rules. Any withdrawal from a cash value policy carries out gains (taxed as ordinary income) first. This includes loans taking out against policy values.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><br clear="all" style="break-before: page;" /></span></b></p><p><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">-----------------------------------------------------------</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; text-align: center;"><b><span style="background-color: yellow; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">EXHIBIT A: DISCLOSURE OF TYPE OF ADVICE PROVIDED AND RESTRICTIONS THEREON.</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><i><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Various aspects of this proposal may be more applicable to broad reforms of the regulation of providers of investment and financial advice. However, a narrower application of these concepts, and/or disclosure forms, to tax-deferred (retirement) accounts might be considered.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Many firms have restrictions upon the advice that they provide – such as restricting themselves to certain products, or the use of proprietary funds. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Adopt an investor protection regime similar to MiFID II’s protections, in which disclosure is made to investors as to whether the advice is “independent” or “non-independent,” and whether the advice is “restricted” (or “no advice” provided). Provide for a disclosure form, such as that set forth on the following pages, to be provided to all investors, once a year, or at the time of any transaction (and before the transaction is finalized).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Disclosure of application of prudent investor rule to investor’s portfolio.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Many, many investors believe their investment portfolio is managed “prudently” – when in fact such is not the case. Requiring an investment adviser to have a “reasonable basis” for investment advice – the standard under the Advisers Act – seems to be too lax a standard for the management of investment portfolios which consist of tax-favored accounts. Of course, Reg BI (and FINRA’s suitability standard) are also lacking, in terms of the standard of care.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Require a disclosure. See pages following. This does not negate the application of the prudent investor rule to tax-deferred accounts, however, as suggested previously.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Disclosure of receipt of third-party compensation.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Problem: Nearly a third of the investors surveyed in the Rand 2008 report believed they did not pay their broker or investment adviser anything! Investors should know the sources of third-party compensation, even in a broker-customer (non-fiduciary) relationship.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Solution: Provide for a uniform disclosure form. See attached pages.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: Baskerville, serif; font-size: 11pt;">---------------------------------</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-family: Baskerville, serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">PROPOSED STATUTE OR RULE.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Disclosure of “independent advice” or “restricted advice” or “no advice” status and receipt of additional forms of compensation<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">a)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">All broker-dealers, agents, and advisers must disclose to each client, prior to the provision of investment advice and during each calendar year thereafter in which the client receives products and/or services from such broker-dealers, agents, or advisor:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">whether its communications to the client will be:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“independent advice”; or<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“restricted advice” (also called “non-independent advice”); or<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“no advice” (i.e., no investment advice provided;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">whether the advice will be based on a broad or more restricted analysis of different types of relevant products; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">where the advice will be restricted advice, whether the range will be limited to relevant products issued or provided by entities having close links with the firm or any other legal or economic relationships, such as contractual relationships, so as to present a risk of impairing the independent basis of the advice provided.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">b)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Should a client receiving “restricted” or “non-independent advice” with respect to any investment strategy or financial product, or should a client receive “no advice” with respect to any account or investment strategy or financial product, then the broker-dealer, agent or adviser may not utilize the terms “independent adviser” and “independent advice.” Such terms are restricted to the circumstance when the entirety of the relationship between the broker, agent or investment adviser and the client meets the requirements for the delivery of independent advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">c)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“Independent adviser” and “independent advice”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">If a broker-dealer, agent, or adviser informs a client that it provides independent advice or that it, she, or he is an independent adviser, then that broker-dealer, agent, or adviser must assess a sufficient range of relevant investment strategies and financial products available on the market which must:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">be sufficiently diverse with regard to their:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.75in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">A.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">type; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.75in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">B.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">issuers or product providers,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 15.3333px; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">to ensure that the client’s investment objectives can be appropriately met; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">not be limited to relevant financial products issued or provided by:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the broker-dealer, agent or adviser itself, himself, or herself, or by affiliated entities; or<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 2in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">other entities with which the broker-dealer, agent or adviser has such close legal or economic relationships, including contractual relationships, as to present a risk of impairing the independent basis of the advice provided.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Examples of arrangements which would result in an inability to provide independent advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">For example, and not by way of limitation, a broker-dealer, agent, or investment adviser which is subject to any form of agreement with an issuer or provider of relevant financial products that would confine the broker-dealer, agent, or investment adviser, or which would incentivize the broker-dealer, agent or investment adviser to select relevant financial products issued or provided by such issuer or provider, will not be in a position to provide independent advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">For example, and not by way of limitation, a broker-dealer, agent, or investment adviser that holds itself, herself, or himself out as providing independent advice and which utilizes a single platform service to facilitate the majority of its recommendations to clients must ensure that the selection of financial products made available by the platform service provider is sufficiently broad and diverse, including the provision of low-fee and low-cost products, to enable the firm to satisfy all of the requirements of this Rule _____________.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer, agent or adviser that holds itself, herself, or himself out as providing independent advice may provide broad and general advice and/or specialist and specific advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer, agent, or adviser that provides investment advice which is independent advice, but where the broker-dealer, agent or adviser focuses on certain categories or a specified range of investment strategies and/or financial instruments, shall comply with the following requirements:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the broker-dealer, agent or adviser shall market and promote itself in a way that is intended only to attract clients with a preference for those categories or range of financial strategies and/or instruments;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the broker-dealer, agent or adviser shall require clients to indicate that they are only interested in investing in the specified category or range of financial strategies and/or instruments; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">prior to the provision of the service, the broker-dealer, agent or adviser shall ensure that its service is appropriate for each new client on the basis that its business model matches the client’s needs and objectives, and the range of financial services and financial instruments that are appropriate for the client. Where this is not the case the broker-dealer, agent or adviser shall not provide such a service to the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">5)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">An independent adviser shall define and implement a process to assess and compare:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broad and sufficient range of investment strategies that may be utilized in client’s investment portfolios;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broad and sufficient range of financial instruments (including but not limited to securities, other investments such as certificates of deposit or other banking products, and annuity and insurance products) that are available on the market; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The financial circumstances, needs and goals of the client, including but not limited to the client’s investment time horizon, to ensure that the investment strategies and financial instruments utilized appropriately match such client’s financial circumstances, needs and goals.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">6)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In undertaking a selection process to identify, assess and compare a broad and sufficient range of investment strategies, and where the investment strategy is designed to be in accord with the requirements of the prudent investor rule, an independent adviser’s selection process shall include (but is not necessarily limited to) one or more of following elements with respect to each investment strategy considered:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">a sufficient review of relevant academic research pertaining to such investment strategy to ascertain if the investment strategy is generally accepted in the academic community;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">testing of the investment strategy against historical data; and/or<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">otherwise subjecting the investment strategy to a robust and comprehensive analysis.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">7)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In undertaking a selection process to identify, assess and compare a broad and sufficient range of financial instruments, an independent adviser’s selection process must be in a position to advise on all types of relevant financial instruments within the scope of the market on which the independent adviser provides advice, and such selection process shall include (but is not necessarily limited to) the following elements:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the number and variety of financial instruments is proportionate to the scope of investment advice services offered by the independent adviser;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the number and variety of financial instruments considered is adequately representative of financial instruments available in the market;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the financial instruments considered for purposes of implementation of an investment strategy shall not exclude low-cost and/or low-fee products available in in the market;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iv.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the criteria for selecting the various financial instruments shall include all relevant characteristics of the financial instrument, including but not limited to its risks, complexity, costs, and fees; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>v.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the selection process utilized does not include any bias that would tend to favor any financial instruments for which the broker-dealer, agent, or adviser receives any form of material compensation should the financial instrument be utilized by the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">8)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">While the selection process conducted by an independent adviser of financial instruments must be of a broad and sufficient range, it is not required that the independent adviser assess every relevant product available on the market prior to making a recommendation to the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">9)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Where a broker-dealer, agent or adviser providing independent advice chooses to engage a third party to conduct an assessment and comparison of the investment strategies and/or financial products the broker-dealer, agent or adviser will then utilize, the broker-dealer, agent or adviser remains responsible for compliance with the requirements of this Subchapter 6, including but not limited to ensuring that the independent advice to be provided is based upon an adequate assessment of a sufficient range of investment strategies and financial products that are sufficient diverse to seek to meet the client’s needs and objectives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">10)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Where the broker-dealer, agent, or adviser owns, or an affiliated entity of the broker-dealer, agent, or adviser, owns, in whole or in part, the issuer or provider of the financial product, the broker-dealer, agent, or adviser may retain status as an independent adviser if and only if:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the broker-dealer, agent, and/or adviser follow the process for investment strategy and financial product selection set forth above;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the range of investment products considered is not limited to the financial products issued or provided by the broker-dealer, agent, adviser or any such affiliated entity, and a broad range lower-cost or higher yielding similar financial products are considered by the broker-dealer, agent, and/or adviser during the financial product selection process;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">the broker-dealer, agent or adviser undertakes sufficient measures to ensure that its, her, or his recommendations are free from bias. For example, a process to ensure the recommendation is free from bias would be to remove any incentives to recommend such product, such as by arranging that any receipt of additional fees resulting from the recommendation of the broker-dealer’s, agent’s, adviser’s, or affiliated entity’s products are rebated to the client, or credited against other fees paid by the client, to the extent permitted by applicable law.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">11)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">If the independent adviser is not able to recommend a financial instrument that would seek to meet the financial circumstances, needs and goals of the client, the independent adviser shall not provide the client with a recommendation. For example, if an independent adviser providing independent advice on mutual funds considers that, given the financial circumstances of the client, that an immediate annuity product would better seek to meet the client’s needs and goals, but the independent adviser is not position to assess the range of available annuity products and/or to provide or recommend such annuity product to the client, the independent adviser should, in accordance with the independent adviser’s fiduciary duty to the client, either not undertake a recommendation to the client or undertake a general recommendation of the type of financial product that would be most appropriate and refer or suggest to the client that such product be obtained from a provider not affiliated with the independent adviser.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">12)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The selection process for investment strategies shall be undertaken by the independent adviser at least once during each two-calendar-year period.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">13)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The selection process for financial products shall be undertaken by the investment adviser at least once during each calendar year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">14)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Independent advisers shall maintain records of their selection process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">15)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Where the selection process for financial instruments cannot be undertaken without bias, or is not possible to undertake utilizing the selection process set forth above, the broker-dealer, agent, or investment adviser shall not present, promote or market itself, herself or himself as an “independent” nor “unbiased” nor “unprejudiced” nor “disinterested” nor “detached” nor “objective” nor “neutral” broker, agent, or adviser, nor shall similar terms be utilized nor shall advertisements or promotions be utilized that create such impressions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">d)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“Restricted adviser” (“non-independent advice”) and “restricted advice” (“non-independent advice”)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The terms “restricted advice” and “non-independent advice” have the same meaning for purposes of this (chapter/subchapter/etc.).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The terms “restricted adviser” and “non-independent adviser” have the same meaning for purposes of this (chapter/subchapter/etc.).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Advice is that does not meet the requirements for independent advice shall be restricted or non-independent advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer, agent or adviser providing restricted advice shall disclose to the client the nature of the restriction by which the advice provided cannot be considered independent advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">e)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“No advice”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer or agent or adviser who does not provide advice may engage in the sale of a financial product to a client, provided the broker-dealer, agent or adviser:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">satisfies any and all requirements imposed by the SEC and FINRA, including but not limited to the gathering of sufficient information from the client to ensure that the financial product is suitable for the client;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>ii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">confines its communications to the client to a discussion of the features and characteristics of the financial product;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iii.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">states to the client that no personalized investment advice may be provided to the client; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.5in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -1.5in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>iv.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">does not provide personalized investment advice to the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer, agent, or adviser may provide, directly or through its affiliates, financial products for which no advice is provided to the client, while at the same time the broker-dealer, agent, or adviser provides restricted advice to the client with respect to other investment strategies or financial products, provided that the broker-dealer or investment adviser implements sufficient controls to ensure that the restricted advice services and products and the no advice services and products are clearly separated from each other, and that clients are not likely to be confused as to when they are receiving either restricted advice or no advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer, agent or adviser who provides, to a client, products or services in which no advice is provided as defined herein, may not be considered to be an independent adviser or providing independent advice, but may be considered to also provide restricted advice for a portion of the client’s needs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">f)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">A broker-dealer, agent or adviser may provide independent advice and non-independent advice, but not as to the same client, and only as to separate or distinct clients. In such circumstances, the broker-dealer or investment adviser shall:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">in any advertisement or promotion relating to the firm, not promote or market itself as “independent” nor “unbiased” nor “unprejudiced” nor “disinterested” nor “detached” nor “objective” nor as a “neutral” broker or adviser or dual registrant, unless such promotion or marketing makes clear that both independent and non-independent advice are provided;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">inform each client, prior to the delivery of advice, whether the advice provided to the client is either independent advice or non-independent advice; and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">implement sufficient controls to ensure that both types of advice services are clearly separated from each other, and that clients are not likely to be confused about the type of advice that they are receiving.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">g)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">All broker-dealers, agents and advisers must utilize the form of the required disclosure as set forth in (chapter/subchapter/section) below, to denote that either:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">independent advice is provided;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">restricted advice or non-independent advice is provided;<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">no advice is provided; or<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">a combination of restricted advice and no advice is provided.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">(PROPOSED STATUTE OR RULE) Uniform disclosure form for broker-dealers, agents, investment advisers, and investment adviser representatives<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">a)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Whenever investment advice is provided to a client, then a uniform disclosure form (“UDF”) shall be completed and provided by the broker-dealer, agent or adviser to the client at the inception of the client relationship, and annually during each calendar year thereafter during the duration of the client relationship, which UDF shall be substantially in the form set forth below.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">b)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The UDF shall be and remain as a separate document and shall remain apart from and distinct from any other contracts, agreements, or other disclosures made to the client. If delivered electronically to the client, notification of electronic delivery of the UDF shall refer to: “Important Annual Disclosure” in the subject heading of the communication and no other substantial information shall be provided to the client in such communication other than the UDF.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">c)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Should any material modifications occur to the disclosures contained in the UDF previously provided to the client, more than 15 days prior to the annual re-delivery of the UDF, the broker-dealer and/or adviser shall modify the disclosures previously provided through a written amendment thereto. Such amendment need not be in the format of the UDF, provided that the material modifications are relatively minor.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">d)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The agent and/or adviser shall ensure that the client has received and reasonably understands the disclosures provided in the UDF and any amendments thereto. The agent and/or adviser shall fully and completely answer any questions posed by clients which relate to the subject matter of the UDF.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">e)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Completion and delivery of the UDF does not fulfill the entirety of the fiduciary or other duties owed to the client by the provider of investment advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Baskerville",serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Baskerville; mso-fareast-font-family: Baskerville;">f)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The UDF provided shall be in substantially the following format and with substantially the following content:</span><i><span style="font-family: Baskerville, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><br clear="all" style="break-before: page;" /></span></i><span style="font-family: Baskerville, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 16.8667px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 657px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" style="border: 4.5pt solid windowtext; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">UNIFORM DISCLOSURE FORM TO INVESTMENT CONSUMERS<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">WHO ARE IN RECEIPT OF INVESTMENT ADVICE<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">FROM INVESTMENT ADVISERS OR BROKERS<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 240.6pt;" width="321"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Name of Broker-Dealer (Company)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Providing Investment Advice:<o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 252.15pt;" valign="top" width="336"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 240.6pt;" width="321"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Name of Investment Adviser (Firm)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Providing Investment Advice:<o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 252.15pt;" valign="top" width="336"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Note to dual registrants: complete both the “broker-dealer” and “investment adviser” listings above.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;">1. IS YOUR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO INVESTED “PRUDENTLY”? Is the Prudent Investor Rule applicable to all or the majority of your investment portfolio?</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_____ YES<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(if checked)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Assets, if any Excluded:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">All or the majority of your investment portfolio upon which we, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof) and/or investment advisers (and representatives thereof), provide investment advice is advised upon and/or managed according to the dictates of the prudent investor rule, which requires that such portion of your investment portfolio be managed as a prudent professional would manage the portfolio, after considering your needs, goals, investment time horizon(s). In satisfying this standard, we are required to exercise due care, skill, and caution. In adherence to the prudent investor rule, we possess a duty to minimize idiosyncratic (diversifiable) risk, we are required to not waste your assets, and we possess other duties.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">While the majority of your portfolio is subject to the prudent investor rule, the following account(s) or investment assets are excluded from the application of the prudent investor rule:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p></td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_____ NO<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(if checked)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Exceptions:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">All or the majority of your investment portfolio upon which we, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof) and/or investment advisers (and representatives thereof), provide investment advice is <u>NOT</u> advised upon and/or managed according to the dictates of the prudent investor rule. As such, you understand that additional risks, fees and costs may exist within your investment portfolio which exceed those in a prudent portfolio.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">While the majority of your portfolio is NOT subject to the prudent investor rule, the prudent investor rule is applied by us to following account(s) or investment assets:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p></td></tr><tr height="0"><td style="border: none;" width="75"></td><td style="border: none;" width="165"></td><td style="border: none;" width="252"></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p><p><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;"><br clear="all" style="break-before: page;" /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 657px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-color: windowtext; border-style: solid; border-width: 4.5pt 4.5pt 1pt; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;">2. WHAT FORM OF INVESTMENT ADVICE IS PROVIDED TO YOU? Is the agent of your broker or the representative of your investment adviser an “independent adviser” or “restricted adviser” – or is “no advice” provided to you?</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 76.95pt;" valign="top" width="103"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_______<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Independent Adviser</span></i></b><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(if checked)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 415.8pt;" valign="top" width="554"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">We, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof) and/or investment advisers (and representatives thereof),</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> possess the ability to provide a sufficient range of relevant investment strategies and financial products available on the market which are sufficiently diverse with regard to their type and with regard to the number of issuers or product providers to ensure that your investment objectives can be appropriate met. As to any investment advice we provide to you, we are required to implement a due diligence process in which we compare a broad range of investment strategies and financial instruments.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 76.95pt;" valign="top" width="103"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_______<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Restricted Adviser<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(if checked)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 415.8pt;" valign="top" width="554"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">We, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof) and/or investment advisers (and representatives thereof), can only provide “restricted advice” (also called “non-independent advice”), for the following reasons (<i>set forth the restrictions here):<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_____________________________<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.5in;"><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_____________________________<o:p></o:p></span></i></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 76.95pt;" valign="top" width="103"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">________<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">No Advice Provided<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(if checked)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 415.8pt;" valign="top" width="554"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">We, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof), do not provide investment advice to you.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">We may describe the features and characteristics of a financial product or investment to you. We may not, however, advise you as to whether the financial product or investment is in your best interests or whether the financial product is the best product in the marketplace to seek you meet your needs and goals.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br clear="all" style="break-before: page;" /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 657px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-color: black windowtext; border-style: solid; border-width: 1pt 4.5pt; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;">3. WHAT FORM OF RELATIONSHIP ARE YOU IN? Are you in a fiduciary-client relationship in which you are entitled to rely upon the investment advice you receive, or are you in an arms-length (seller-purchaser) relationship in which you must protect yourself? </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 76.95pt;" valign="top" width="103"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">________<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">A<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Fiduciary-Client Relationship Exists<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></i></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 415.8pt;" valign="top" width="554"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">We, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof) and/or investment advisers (and representatives thereof), possess broad fiduciary duties to you in all aspects of our business relationship with you, including but not limited to:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The duty to act with due care with regard to any financial or investment advice we provide to you, which means that we must act with the skill, prudent and diligence of an expert in providing financial or investment advice to you.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.3in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The duty to act in your best interests, under the duty of loyalty, which includes the requirement to keep your interest paramount to our own interests, and that we act without regard to the financial or other interests of ourselves or our affiliated entities.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.3in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The duty to be completely honest with you, with a high degree of candor.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.3in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The duty to receive only reasonable compensation.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; margin-left: 0.3in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The duty to not undertake any material misrepresentations of fact to you.<o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 76.95pt;" valign="top" width="103"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">_______<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">A Seller-Purchaser, Arms-Length Relationship Exists<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></i></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 415.8pt;" valign="top" width="554"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">We, your broker-dealer firm (and agents thereof), are not acting as your fiduciary. In connection therewith:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.3in; margin-top: 0in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->Our relationship with you is that of the seller of a financial product to you, the purchaser of that product. We are in an arms-length relationship with you.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0.3in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->We may favor our own interests over yours. We are <i>not legally required</i> to act in your best interests.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; margin-left: 0.3in; text-indent: -0.2in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->We do not possess a broad duty of due care with regard to our financial product recommendations to you. Any product we recommend to you need only be “suitable.”<o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br clear="all" style="break-before: page;" /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; color: black; width: 657px;"><thead><tr style="break-inside: avoid;"><td style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-color: windowtext white white windowtext; border-style: solid; border-width: 4.5pt 2.25pt 2.25pt 4.5pt; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;">Your Broker or Adviser should check all those applicable, in the boxes below:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td><td style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: white; border-bottom-width: 2.25pt; border-bottom: 2.25pt solid white; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 4.5pt; border-top: 4.5pt solid windowtext; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;">4. WHAT TYPES OF FEES AND OTHER COMPENSATION ARE RECEIVED BY YOUR BROKER-DEALER OR INVESTMENT ADVISER? What forms of compensation might your broker-dealer (or any affiliate thereof) or investment advisor (or any affiliate thereof) receive as a result of their relationship with you?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="background-color: #404040; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;"> FEES PAID DIRECTLY BY YOU<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Investment advisory fees paid directly by you based upon a percentage of the assets upon which advice is provided<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Investment advisory fees paid directly by you of a fixed or flat fee nature, paid either annually, quarterly, or monthly<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Investment advisory fees paid directly by you based upon hourly fees<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: white; border-bottom-width: 2.25pt; border-bottom: 2.25pt solid white; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: white; border-bottom-width: 2.25pt; border-bottom: 2.25pt solid white; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Investment advisory fees paid directly by you for discrete projects<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="background-color: #404040; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 10pt;"> FEES PAID BY PRODUCT MANUFACTURERS OR OTHER INTERMEDIARIES<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Sales commissions (including but not limited to front-end sales loads for mutual fund shares, and including but not limited to front-end commissions for annuities) resulting from sales or purchases of securities, other investments, or annuity/insurance products to you<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Sales commissions in the form of deferred contingent sales charges or back-end loads resulting from selling or purchasing securities, other investments, or annuity/insurance products to or from you<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Mark-ups and mark-downs in connection with principal trading of securities (i.e., where the broker-dealer firm purchases securities directly from you, or sells securities directly to you, from the broker-dealer’s own accounts)<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">For any securities sold to you, compensation derived from the issuer or stocks, bonds, or other securities relating to the investment underwriting activities of the broker-dealer<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">12b-1 fees paid by mutual funds to your brokerage firm, which fees last indefinitely as long as you own the fund (regardless of whether you continue to receive investment advice)<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">12b-1 fees paid by mutual funds to your brokerage firm, which fees will last for only a fixed period of time before they disappear, but which fees may continue during that period of time, regardless of whether you continue to receive investment advice<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Other than 12b-1 fees, any other form of fees or trailing commissions paid to your brokerage firm resulting from the sale of securities, other investments, or annuity/insurance products to you, which fees or trailing commissions last indefinitely as long as you own the security, other investment, or annuity/insurance product (regardless of whether you continue to receive investment advice)<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Other than 12b-1 fees, any other form of trailing commissions paid to your brokerage firm resulting from the sale of securities, other investments, or annuity/insurance products to you, which fees or trailing commissions last for only a fixed period of time before they disappear, but which fees may continue during that period of time, regardless of whether you continue to receive investment advice<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Payment for shelf space received by your broker-dealer. (A shelf-space agreement occurs when a mutual fund pays this additional compensation in exchange for the broker-dealer preferentially marketing the shares of that mutual fund.)<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="background-color: #404040; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 492.75pt;" valign="top" width="657"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-size: 11pt;">(-cont.) FEES AID BY PRODUCT MANUFACTURERS OR OTHER INTERMEDIARIES</span></b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Marketing support payments paid by product manufacturers or intermediaries to your broker-dealer or investment adviser arising from the sales of securities or annuity/insurance products to you<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Other revenue sharing payments paid by product manufacturers to your broker-dealer or investment adviser<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Fees and/or commissions resulting from sales of securities for which your broker-dealer acts as underwriter or as part of an underwriting group<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Any other fees and/or commissions received for referrals by your broker-dealer firm of you to any other product or service provider that are not set forth above<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Receipt by your broker-dealer of payments for order flow from other brokerage firms (including but not limited to market makers) (these compensation payments benefit a brokerage firm for directing orders to different parties for trade execution)<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Receipt by your brokerage firm of soft dollar compensation received from managed accounts (including but not limited to mutual funds). Note that Section 28(e) of the (federal) Securities Exchange Act of 1934 discretion with respect to an account shall not be deemed to have acted unlawfully or to have breached a fiduciary duty under state or federal law solely by reason of his having caused an account to pay more than the lowest available commission if that person determines in good faith that the amount of the commission is reasonable in relation to the value of the brokerage and research services provided.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Other than as previously described, any receipt by your broker or investment adviser of access to software, research, trading software, practice management and/or investment education (though attendance at conference, via webinars, written materials, or otherwise), or other support services from any other brokerage firm, custodian, or product manufacturer.<o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-width: 4.5pt; border-left: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b></p></td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 4.5pt; border-bottom: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 4.5pt; border-right: 4.5pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top-style: none; padding: 2.9pt 5.75pt 1.45pt; width: 417.3pt;" valign="top" width="556"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Any other forms of revenue sharing or other payments, paid by product manufacturers or intermediaries, to your broker-dealer or investment adviser arising from the sales of securities, other investments, or annuity/insurance products to you, other than as previously described: (<i>Broker-dealer and/or investment adviser: adequately describe such forms of revenue sharing or other payment arrangements, in the space set forth below):<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-66345067959062140282020-09-03T09:42:00.007-04:002021-06-08T11:23:39.054-04:00My Testimony to the U.S. Department of Labor Re: Its Flawed Rule on ERISA's (Non-Fiduciary) Proposed Class Exemption<p> <span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;">TESTIMONY OF RON A. RHOADES, JD, CFP®</b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>Director, Personal Financial Planning Program<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>And Assoc. Professor of Finance<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>Gordon Ford College of Business<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>Western Kentucky University<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b> </b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>Re: U.S. Department of Labor / Employee Benefits Security Administration<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>Hearing on “Improving Investment Advice for Workers & Retirees”<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b>September 3, 2020<o:p></o:p></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><b> </b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Thank you for this opportunity. I am Professor Ron Rhoades of Western Kentucky University’s Gordon Ford College of Business and its Department of Finance. <b>These remarks are my own, and do not necessarily represent the views of any institution, organization, or firm with whom I am presently associated nor any cult nor gang I have been previously kicked out of.</b><i><o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In my experience as a university professor teaching courses in retirement planning, insurance, and investments, and as a registered investment adviser, and as an attorney to both businesses and private individuals, I have had the opportunity to review many 401(k) plans and their investment offerings. I offer the following observations.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Plan sponsors are business owners; as such they focus on their business operations. Plan sponsors, whether large or small, don’t understand the scope of their fiduciary duties under ERISA, and they certainly don’t understand the requirements of the prudent investor rule. Efforts to educate plan sponsors in the complexities of the prudent investor rule and the investment marketplace cannot overcome the vast information asymmetry which exists. The world of investment due diligence requires specialized skills, which these plan sponsors lack. As a result, American businesses are subject to liability should plan sponsors not be aided by fiduciaries – experts upon whom they can rely. Last year the settlements in these class action cases, including both for-profit businesses and non-profits such as private universities, totaled nearly half a billion dollars, and that does not include the tremendous costs incurred during litigation.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In class action suits, plaintiffs’ attorneys are now moving on from the very largest ERISA-covered plans, to those maintained by mid-sized and smaller companies. When such lawsuits are filed, usually the broker-dealer or insurance company, and their representatives, who have provided investment recommendations, are easily dismissed from the litigation. Brokers essentially hide behind the suitability shield. The SEC's Regulation "Best Interests," which is misnamed, does not substantially change this <b>lack of accountability.</b><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">I have represented many individuals who are participants in qualified retirement plans and IRAs. I have seen the <b>harm</b> done through the sale of high-cost investment products. The academic evidence on the impact of higher fees is conclusive. Higher-cost investments have lower returns, especially over the long term, all other things being equal. A mere 1% increase in fees over the course of a worker’s lifetime results far less in a retiree’s nest egg – 20% or more less.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The fact of the matter is … defined contribution plans possess <b>economies of scale</b>. This permits investments to be provided at very low cost to plan participants. Indeed, the prudent investor rule mandates that plan sponsors, as fiduciaries, not waste the assets of the plan sponsors on expensive products.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Moreover, the existence of commissions, as seen in Class A mutual funds, result in a <b>substantial drag on investment returns</b>. The impact is especially severe given the need for portfolio rebalancing in many accounts, applying Modern Portfolio Theory, as more commissions would be incurred in the rebalancing process. There exists no valid reason for 12b-1 fees, which provide no real benefits for fund shareholders. Together, commissions and 12b-1 fees often result in <b>unreasonable compensation</b>, a violation of fiduciary requirements.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">I have served as a consultant to broker-dealer firms. For decades many such firms have communicated to me their <b>prospects for huge profits</b> resulting from the commissions earned on rollovers from ERISA-covered plans to IRA accounts. There is no question that investors need, and deserve, fiduciary investment advice at the critical period when they enter retirement and consider whether to undertake a rollover to an IRA, or whether to annuitize a part of their nest egg.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Reg BI does not, by the SEC’s own admission, impose a fiduciary standard of loyalty. It is <b>completely inappropriate</b> for the Department of Labor to suggest that ERISA’s requirement to act in the interest of the plan participants be <b>interpreted under a non-fiduciary standard</b>.<a href="applewebdata://B81FAF91-6BF2-450E-B282-EFD8E6E82213#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span face="" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1]</span></span></span></span></a></p><div><br clear="all" /><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /><div id="ftn1"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><a href="applewebdata://B81FAF91-6BF2-450E-B282-EFD8E6E82213#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[1]</span></span></span></a> The announcement of the proposed regulation from the DOL states, in its preamble: “<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The standard is to be interpreted and applied consistent with the standard set forth in the SEC’s Regulation Best Interest and the SEC’s interpretation regarding the conduct standard for registered investment advisers.” The SEC’s Reg BI and the SEC’s interpretation of the fiduciary standard mandated by the Advisers Act have been heavily criticized, including in comment letters submitted to the SEC by the undersigned. Among those criticisms is the use of the term “best interests” (whether by the SEC, NAIC, or other regulators) to describe a non-fiduciary standard of conduct; the term “best interests” has an established utilization under the law, as reflected in over 900 judicial decisions in the U.S. alone, as it is used to describe the fiduciary duty of loyalty.</span></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The Department suggests that consumers need more <b>choice</b>. This is but a <b>red herring</b>. Greater choice is <u>not</u> what Congress, in enacting ERISA, mandated. The strict fiduciary standard applied under <b>ERISA intentionally limits choic</b>e. ERISA’s prudent investor rule is designed to eliminate bad investment choices.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The Department seeks to adapt the fiduciary standard to the practices of the industry, by chipping away at the fiduciary standard. Yet the fiduciary standard, like this square piece sitting atop a round glass, is <b>not susceptible to “particular exceptions,”</b> as the late Justice Benjamin Cardoza put it. Start chipping away at it, and very soon the fiduciary standard collapses, just as this brownie collapses into this jar. The result is just a mess, when the fiduciary standard is eroded.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b>Disclosure of a conflict of interest is not sufficient</b> to meet the fiduciary standard set forth by ERISA and the requirements applicable to class exemptions. I can attest that plan participants don’t read disclosures. Those few that do don’t understand them. If disclosures were effective, there would be no need for the fiduciary standard under the law.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">There is a single truth, that is irrefutable. <b>No person can serve two masters</b>. You cannot adhere to the fiduciary standard and also act as a seller of products. The duty of loyalty requires strict adherence to the protection of the interests of plan sponsors and plan participants. The two roles – product salesperson, and purchaser’s representative – are simply incompatible.<o:p></o:p><a href="applewebdata://94EFFD32-83CC-4DBE-A3BE-5D6C002252D3#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a></p><div><br clear="all" /><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /><div id="ftn1"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><a href="applewebdata://94EFFD32-83CC-4DBE-A3BE-5D6C002252D3#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[1]</span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt;">The following is well known in the law: “The characters of buyer and seller are incompatible, and cannot safely be exercised by the same person. Emptor emit quam minimo potest; venditor vendit quam maximo potest. The disqualification rests … on no other than that principle which dictates that a person cannot be both judge and party. No man can serve two masters. He that it interested with the interests of others, cannot be allowed to make the business an object of interest to himself; for, the frailty of our nature is such, that the power will too readily beget the inclination to serve our own interests at the expense of those who have trusted us.” </span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 9pt;">Carter v. Harris</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 9pt;">, 25 Va. 199, 204 (1826); 1826 Va. LEXIS 26; 4 Rand. 199 (Va. 1826).</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The express language of ERISA requires a broad application of the fiduciary standard upon those who provide advice to plan sponsors and plan participants. The <b>common law</b>, which applies the fiduciary standard to those providing investment advice who are in a relationship of trust and confidence with their clients or customers, is utilized to inform rule-making under ERISA. Yet, this proposed rule fails to properly consider the common law application of fiduciary duties, and it <b>does not explore the alternatives</b> for the application of the fiduciary standard to those who provide investment advice and recommendations to ERISA-covered plans.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Having taught an advanced course in economics as applied to the capital markets, I can attest that <b>substantial negative economic effects</b> will result from this proposed rule. Tens of millions of Americans to have less in retirement, due to excessive intermediation. In turn, this will result in lesser accumulations of capital. In turn, this increases the cost of capital to businesses. It will also reduce the fuel necessary to drive new innovations forward via entrepreneurship. Over a long period of time, due to the compounding effect of the high fees and costs that would be permitted under this proposed rule, <b>future U.S. economic growth will be substantially reduced</b>.'<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The <b>betrayals of trust </b>by those who represent themselves as acting in the best interests of a plan sponsor or participant, but who fail to adhere to ERISA’s strict fiduciary duty requirements, will further negatively affect the formation of new defined contribution plans, their maintenance, and the essential trust needed to foster our capital markets system.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">This proposed rule is <b>substantively flawed</b>. <span face="">The Department should look to Justice Douglas’ majority opinion in the 1939 U.S. Supreme Court decision in</span><span face=""> </span><i style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">Pepper vs. Litton</i><span face=""> </span><span face="">to better understand the obligations which flow from the fiduciary duty of loyalty.</span><a href="applewebdata://27E27B83-CB35-4100-BAA4-505C2FA26B08#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[1]</span></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><div><br clear="all" /><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /><div id="ftn1"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="applewebdata://27E27B83-CB35-4100-BAA4-505C2FA26B08#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align: super;">[1]</span></span></a> </span><span style="line-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Justice Douglas’s majority opinion in<i> Pepper v. Litton</i>, 308 U.S. 295, 311 (1939), in which he stated: “He who is in such a fiduciary position cannot serve himself first and his <i>cestuis</i> second … He cannot use his power for his personal advantage and to the detriment of [the <i>cestuis</i>], no matter how absolute in terms that power may be and no matter how meticulous he is to satisfy technical requirements. For that power is at all times subject to the equitable limitation that it may not be exercised for the aggrandizement, preference, or advantage of the fiduciary to the exclusion or detriment of the <i>cestuis</i>. Where there is a violation of those principles, equity will undo the wrong or intervene to prevent its consummation … Otherwise, the fiduciary duties … would go for naught: exploitation would become a substitute for justice; and equity would be perverted as an instrument for approving what it was designed to thwart.”</span><span style="font-family: Baskerville, serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Furthermore, the circumstances present over the past few months – with multiple rulemakings occurring at the same time regarding investment advice, disclosures, and standards of conduct. In addition, the effects of the pandemic have imposed greater time burdens upon investment practitioners, with the demand for financial advice in this recession soaring, with temporary tax laws and regulations increasing the need of advice, and with capital market valuations fluctuating widely. In addition, academics that may have desired to make comments have been and continue to be time-constrained, as we deal with training to improve the delivery of online classes, greater outreach to students who endure stress and anxiety, and assisting students who have contracted COVID 19 or who have been quarantined. This rush to a hearing only eight days following the publication in the Federal Register of the Notice of Hearing, with significant restrictions on who may testify and the topics permitted, is <b>procedurally flawed</b> as well.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">This is a monumental rulemaking, with a huge impact upon the retirement security of individual Americans, the future burdens upon both federal and state and local governments to provide for the elderly, and substantial implications for the growth of the U.S. economy. <b>The proposed rule only fosters poor investment choices, lack of accountability by those who recommend investments, and betrayals of trust</b>. The Department should return to the drawing board and start over again to fashion a proposal that reflects the plain language of ERISA’s statutory language, and which protects both the American people and the American economy.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Thank you.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Ron A. Rhoades</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-35661914109402729202020-08-27T13:45:00.002-04:002021-06-08T11:23:53.846-04:00THE DOL'S RUSHED PROCESS TO ADOPT AN (ANTI-)FIDUCIARY RULE MAY VIOLATE FEDERAL LAW<div style="border: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DOL is rushing through a new "fiduciary rule" that guts who is subject to fiduciary standards for those providing investment advice to plan sponsors and plan participants. It further guts ERISA's fiduciary standard and prohibited transaction requirements by tying the interpretation of the fiduciary standard to the SEC's flawed Regulation "Best Interests" - which is only a very modest enhancement of the (non-fiduciary) "suitability standard" of conduct that has long shielded broker-dealers and their registered representatives from being held accountable for their investment and portfolio advice.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">In this blog post I reflect upon whether the DOL, by proceeding at warp speed, may be violating the spirit, if not the letter, of the Administrative Procedures Act.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES ACT, GENERALLY</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Administrative Procedure Act (APA), which applies to all agencies of the federal government, provides the general procedures for various types of rule making. The APA details the rarely used procedures for formal rules as well as the requirements for informal rule making, under which the vast majority of agency rules are issued.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">For what is termed "informal rule making" under the APA (which is the vast majority of agency rule making), the notice requirement of § 553 of the APA is satisfied when the agency “affords interested persons a reasonable and meaningful opportunity to participate in the rule making process.” Once adequate notice is provided, the agency must provide interested persons with a meaningful opportunity to comment on the proposed rule through the submission of written “data, views, or arguments.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">While there is no minimum period of time for which the agency is required to accept comments, in reviewing an agency rule making, courts have focused on whether the agency provided an “adequate” opportunity to comment—of which the length of the comment period represents only one factor for consideration.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Although the APA sets the minimum degree of public participation the agency must permit, the legislative history of the APA suggests that “[matters] of great importance, or those where the public submission of facts will be either useful to the agency or a protection to the public, should naturally be accorded more elaborate public procedures.”</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Agencies are required to respond to all public comments to a reasonable extent, and sufficient public opposition to or criticism of a proposed rule may result in modifications to the rule or, in cases of significant opposition, re-drafting of the rule with a new publication and comment period.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>THE DOL INVESTMENT ADVICE (FIDUCIARY) RULE: A LONG HISTORY</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">The fiduciary rule is the product of more than ten years of work.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">The actual history of efforts to re-define when fiduciary duties apply under ERISA goes back to the George W. Bush Administration. </span>The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) adopted as a final rule in the waning days of the Bush administration. The Obama Administration put the rule, which had not passed its effective date, on hold.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">The DOL went back to the drawing board, under the Obama Administration. It first proposed a broadening of the application of the fiduciary standard to providers of investment advice to retirement plan sponsors and plan participants in 2010. After a comment period, the U.S. Department of Labor withdrew this proposal to address concerns that were raised. T</span><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">he DOL then consulted extensively, including with stakeholders and other government agencies, particularly the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">The next iteration of the rule was proposed by the DOL in April 2015.</span><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"> After receiving requests for additional time to submit input on the revised rule, the DOL extended the comment period by two weeks in July and held a four-day hearing during the week of August 10, 2015. The DOL then re-opened the comment period again for an additional two weeks for additional public testimony and comments. In total, there were over 100 days for the public to comment on the draft rule </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">The Department received 3,134 total comments, including 30 petitions that encompass an additional 386,889 comments. The DOL's proposal was strongly opposed by most broker-dealer firms and insurance companies (and their lobbying organizations, such as SIFMA, FSI, and ACLI). While the public participation in the process was dominated by securities broker-dealer firms and insurance industry firms and lobbyists, the Obama Administration's DOL did receive substantial input from </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">as compared to public interest or consumer groups.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DOL finalized its rule in 2016. After lengthy court challenges, in which the DOL prevailed in most of them, a divided 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals overturned the DOL's fiduciary rule in June 2018. The Trump administration declined requests from consumer groups and others for further judicial review or appeal of the 5th Circuit's opinion.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DOL, now acting under the Trump Administration, and led by U.S. Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia (who represented the securities industry firms that challenged the prior DOL's rule, which prevailed I the 5th Circuit opinion) then proceeded to draft a new proposed rule, which was published in July 2020. The proposed rule would substantially weaken the previous rule's application of ERISA's fiduciary standard and prohibited transaction rules, both as to who it applied to, as well the requirements under ERISA when fiduciary status was applicable. A short 30-day comment period was provided. Thereafter, on August 25, 2020 a Notice of Hearing was published, providing only 3 days for those desiring to testify to submit outlines, and restricting the topics to mostly "factual issues" that could not be covered in comment letters. Presumably, those selected to testify will be notified by Tuesday, Sept. 1st, with the hearing to be conducted on Thursday, Sept. 3rd (and, if needed, Friday, Sept. 4th). Only those who submitted written comments or previously requested to testify are permitted to testify at the Sept. 3rd/4th hearings.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As of Thursday, August 27, 2020, it appears that the DOL is apparently rushing to finalize its new rule, which is decidedly pro-Wall Street, and pro-insurance company, so that it goes into effect prior to January 20, 2021 - which date could mark the beginning of the start of a new (Democratic) Administration, which no doubt would oppose the anti-consumer, pro-Wall Street proposed rule advanced and considered in July-September 2020 by the DOL.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>MY CONCERNS: A RUSHED RULE MAKING PROCESS, THAT PROVIDES INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR PUBLIC INPUT AND REASONED ANALYSIS.</b></span></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DOL ("Department") should not constrain the topics addressed in the hearing, or constrain who can appear to testify, as the notice of hearing states.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is a clear need for the Department to hear more factual and legal information regarding this proposed rule making, including but not limited to:</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(1)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>A legal rebuttal of various arguments put forward by various industry organizations in their comment letters, including but not limited to arguments not reasonably anticipated by the Department’s own proposed rule, as well as similar arguments advanced by various law firms and others on behalf of certain financial services firms in their comment letters just submitted earlier this month;</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(2)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>A more complete factual rebuttal of various arguments put forward in the previously submitted comment letters, by those who did not submit comment letters, but who possess evidence that would address the previous comments submitted;</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(3)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>A more complete legal and factual analysis as to why the Department’s proposal to permit conflicted advice is violative of the prudent investor rule under ERISA, ERISA’s provisions for the grant of class exemptions, and the requirements of pertinent fiduciary law;</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(4)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>An economic analysis of the negative impacts of the proposed rule upon:</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> a.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>individual retirement plan participants;</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> b.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>those who engage in rollovers to IRAs from qualified retirement plans governed by ERISA;</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> c.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>plan sponsors (including the viability and profitability of businesses, both large and small, when subjected to the increased risks, including those arising from class action lawsuits, which are certain to arise if the proposed rule is enacted);</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> d.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>the number of ERISA-covered qualified retirement plans, given the increased liabilities to plan sponsors (and lack of ability to hold those providing investment recommendations to plan sponsors responsible), at a time when increased availability of qualified retirement plans in the United States should be promoted;</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> e.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>capital formation in the United States (and the detriments to same occurring from higher fees and costs due to excessive intermediation, as well as from betrayals of trust);</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> f.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>U.S. economic growth, resulting from excessive intermediation and the resulting lower amounts of capital available for investment, especially given the compounding effects of high fees and costs on the availability of investment capital; </span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> g.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>the personal savings rate in the United States, due to investor perception that will arise from conflicted advice provided to plan sponsors and plan participants; and</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"> h.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>the investment advisory and financial planning professions, and the reputation and economic prospects of professionals within such professions, as plan sponsor and individual plan participant trust is increasingly betrayed.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(5)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Recent developments regarding various interpretations of Regulation Best Interest, upon which the Department’s intended interpretation of its own rule expressly relies; and</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(6)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Much more, which time to properly consider the proposals would reveal.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">I am concerned that the artificial limitation on testimony to “individuals or parties who submitted, in accordance with the instructions included in the proposed prohibited transaction exemption, a comment or hearing request on the proposed exemption before the close of the comment period” results in a lack of adherence to fundamental notions of fairness and the Administrative Procedures Act, especially given the Department’s receipt of evidence and legal arguments during the first short comment period. There would be, no doubt, interested parties who could provide meaningful insight to the Department, who do not meet the artificial constraints so imposed by the Department.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">I am also concerned that the limitation of testimony is ill-advised: “Outlines should present material factual issues and demonstrate that the proposed testimony is both germane to factual issues needing exploration at the hearing that could not have been submitted in writing, and not duplicative of arguments and factual material previously included in the requestor’s comment letter.” This constraint is altogether non-sensical. Simple factual information, without more, could be presented in writing.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But the purpose of a hearing, to inform the government’s rule-making process, is much more than the mere receipt of explanations of faculty issues. There is a complex interaction between the application of a law (or rule, or proposed rule) and the factual circumstances as they relate to investments, the delivery of investment recommendations and advice, the marketplace for financial services, and the economic impacts that may occur. Limiting outlines to addressing “factual issues” alone ignores the absolute necessity to explore the complex and intertwined nature of the proposed rules and its legal, practical and economic impacts. “Factual issues” and “legal issues” are intertwined, especially in such a rule making as this proposed rule with its huge economic, industry, and social impacts.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As stated above, this stated constraint also likely runs afoul of the requirements of the Administrative Procedures Act, and is certainly evidence that the Department seeks to rush this rule making through without a proper consideration of its impact upon major areas of our economy, the financial services industry, consumers, financial professionals, and much more.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hearings on rules of this nature should be designed to permit adequate exploration of the interplay of the rule, in all of its complexity, and a due consideration of the major ramifications and impact of this proposed rule. This involves exploring both factual and legal issues, and their interplay, and what lies in between. The exchange between those testifying, and those who are charged with adhering to the requirements for the adoption of rules that are neither arbitrary nor capricious as well as being reflective of the true environment in which the rule is intended to operate, should not be artificially restricted by the limits as to who may testify, or by limiting the topics upon which they may testify.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>CONCERNS OVER RUSH OF THE HEARING <u>SCHEDULING:</u> FROM NOTIFICATION OF TESTIMONY TO THE DATE OF TESTIMONY. </b></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">I would also repeat my concerns that the Department’s proposed rule making, on an issue as complex as this, and which has such far-reaching implications for millions upon millions of business owners and retirement savers, as well as impacting upon capital formation and U.S. economic growth, is rushed in the extreme.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Additionally, there has simply been insufficient time to gather evidence and legal analysis and respond to the Department’s proposed rule, given the extraordinarily short comment period.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Nor has then been presented any time to submit comments to rebut the evidence, such as it is, and the legal arguments, from previously submitted comment letters (few if any of which were posted prior to the deadline of the comment period) of those who present arguments that are opposed to my own views.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The August 25, 2020 publication in the Federal Register of this “Announcement of Hearing,” with a reply required just three days later – by 11:59 p.m. on August 28, 2020, is also extremely rushed and gives little time to gather factual evidence and submit same.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Presumably, given the existence of Labor Day (a federal holiday), and with testimony to be scheduled on Thursday, Sept. 3rd (and “if necessary” Sept. 4th), those individuals invited to testify would receive notification that their testimony has been scheduled (at least in some, if not many, instances) less than 48 hours to prepare their actual testimony. This is insufficient time for those who desire to provide testimony to further consider the topics upon which they will be permitted to testify, and then to craft the succinct yet meaningful and impactful testimony the Department should expect.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">I would note that if I possessed, myself, adequate time for thought on the complex interplay of the Department’s proposals with the complex web of financial services regulation at both the federal and state levels, the impact of preemption, the rise of state retirement plans which may or may not be covered by ERISA, recent SEC rule making, recent state legislative and regulatory developments, and for a review of all of the previously submitted comment letters earlier this month, no doubt I would identify other factual (as well as legal) issues deserving of commentary and, in many cases, rebuttal.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Accordingly, I remain concerned that the Department is not adhering properly to the Administrative Procedures Act by undertaking, in such a rushed and hurried fashion, with constraints on receipt of testimony and further comment letters, such a monumental rulemaking. The burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic, which are huge in terms of additional time to complete everyday work and personal activities, adds to my concerns over the inherent fairness of rushing the Department’s proposed rule through.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">If the Department truly desires well-reasoned, thorough, thoughtful, and complete testimony, it would afford more time for those testifying to construct their testimony, both in establishing a far more reasonable time period to submit outlines, and with regard to permitting more time from notification of the testimony time and date to the actual date of the hearing.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>THE CURRENT ATTEMPTS TO GUT FIDUCIARY DUTIES SHOULD FAIL</b></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Fiduciary rule-making under ERISA has been made into a complicated process. The requirements for who constitutes a "fiduciary" have been substantially narrowed, far narrower than the clear language of ERISA itself. Now, the DOL attempts to further narrow to whom ERISA's fiduciary duties apply, and then also to gut the fiduciary standard itself.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The current Administration's attempt to gut principles-based fiduciary regulation, which has for over a century been applied to the delivery of investment advice by the courts, and by federal and state statutory regimes, is an ill-advised cowtow to the greed of Wall Street and the insurance companies. It is couched in terms of "less government." But, as James Madison so eloquently stated, "“If men were angels, no government would be necessary.”</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Furthermore, establishing a principles-based standard, such as the fiduciary standard, does not require detailed rules promulgated by government. It just requires the government to respect that, given the substantial public policy considerations that favor the application of the fiduciary standard of conduct in this ever-more-specialized society, and ever-more-complicated capital markets, that government agencies stick with the broad principles-based regulation and permit them to be enforced, without limitation or restriction, by the courts.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">We must realize that it would be far simpler to just enact a rule that follows ERISA's statutory language, as to whom is a fiduciary for purposes of ERISA. Any augmentation to such should just clarify that "anyone in a relationship of trust and confidence" with a plan sponsor, or plan participant, should also be considered a fiduciary.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The fiduciary standard is a principles-based standard. The tough "sole interests" trust law-based standard in ERISA should be interpreted by the courts. Enacting exemptions that meet the "best interests" fiduciary standard, while also not running afoul of the requirements for class exemptions from the prohibited transaction rules, should be VERY carefully undertaken, and only for necessary and narrow exemptions.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;">The DOL suggests that it is trying to assist consumers, by creating more choice. Yet, the fiduciary standard, by its nature, constrains choice. The fiduciary standard ensures that "bad choices" - in this instance, bad investment products, not be recommended to plan sponsors and plan participants. The DOL's emphasis on "consumer choice" is but a red herring.</p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>THE FIDUCIARY STANDARD IS A TOUGH STANDARD, THAT THE DOL SEEKS TO IGNORE.</b></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The U.S. Supreme Court has previously written about the fiduciary standard, generally, and in particular the fiduciary duty </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">of loyalty. </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">In Justice Douglas’s majority opinion in <i>Pepper v. Litton</i>, it was stated: "</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">He who is in such a fiduciary position cannot serve himself first and hiscestuis second … He cannot use his power for his </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">personal advantage and to the detriment of [the cestuis], no matter how absolute in terms that power may be and no matter </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">how meticulous he is to satisfy technical requirements. For that power is at all times subject to the equitable limitation that it </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">may not be exercised for the aggrandizement, preference, or advantage of the fiduciary to the exclusion or detriment of the </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">cestuis. Where there is a violation of those principles, equity will undo the wrong or intervene to prevent its consummation </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">… Otherwise, the fiduciary duties … would go for naught: exploitation would become a substitute for justice; and equity </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">would be perverted as an instrument for approving what it was designed to thwart."</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The observation that a person cannot wear two hats and continue to adhere to his or her fiduciary duties was again echoed early </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">on by the U.S. Supreme Court, “The two characters of buyer and seller are inconsistent.” The U.S. Supreme Court also </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">observed: “If persons having a confidential character were permitted to avail themselves of any knowledge acquired in that </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">capacity, they might be induced to conceal their information, and not to exercise it for the benefit of the persons relying </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">upon their integrity. The characters are inconsistent.”</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In an early speech by the Louis Loss, for long the leading scholar on the federal securities law, presented </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">at a time when he served the Commission, Professor Loss stated: “[A]s an eloquent Tennessee jurist put it </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">before the Civil War, the doctrine ‘has its foundation, not so much in the commission of actual fraud, but </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">in that profound knowledge of the human heart which dictated that hallowed petition, ‘Lead us not into </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">temptation, but deliver us from evil,’ and that caused the announcement of the infallible truth, that ‘a man </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">cannot serve two masters.’ ’ ” <i>Louis Loss, </i></span><i><span style="font-family: georgia;">Address entitled “The SEC and the Broker-Dealer” by Louis Loss, Chief Counsel, Trading and Exchange </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">Division, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16, 1948, before the Stock Brokers’ Associates of </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">Chicago.</span></i></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As well-known in the early case law regarding fiduciary relations: "The principle is undeniable that an agent to sell cannot sell to </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">himself, for the obvious reason that the relations of agent and purchaser are inconsistent, and such a transaction </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">will be set aside without proof of fraud.” </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>Porter v. Wormser</i> , 94 N. Y. 431, 447 (1884).</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Simply put, you either possess a duty of loyalty to the client, as an expert, trusted adviser bound by ERISA's tough prudent investor rule and standard for due care. Or you are a product salesperson. You cannot be both, at the same time.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It is an undeniable truth that no person can serve two masters. And the DOL, and the SEC, must at some time revert back to this longstanding principle, establish more clearly when fiduciary standards apply (and always apply them where relationships of trust and confidence exist), and restore the fiduciary standard to its rightful place as the toughest standard of conduct found under the law.</span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i> - Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP</i></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>These views are my own, and are not necessarily the views of any institution, firm, organization, cult, or gang with whom I am currently associated or from which I have ever been expelled.</i></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><br /></span></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-74624655092351360562020-08-10T19:16:00.005-04:002021-06-08T11:24:05.449-04:00Can We Prevent Democracy Tumbling Toward Authoritarian Rule?<div style="border: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div><p style="text-align: center;"><b>How Can We Guard Against the Fall of Democracy, and the Rise of Tyranny?</b></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>"Is it unreasonable, then, to expect that some man possessed of the loftiest genius, coupled with ambition sufficient to push it to its utmost stretch, will at some time spring up among us? And when such an one does, it will require the people to be united with each other, attached to the government and laws, and generally intelligent, to successfully frustrate his designs."</p><p> - Abraham Lincoln, in his address to the Young Men's Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois on January 27, 1838, titled "The Perpetuation of Our Political Institutions"</p><span><!--more--></span><p><b>DONALD TRUMP AND THE EROSION OF DEMOCRACY</b></p><p>Perhaps never before in the history of the United States have the institutions of our democracy - the press, the judiciary, our intelligence services, and even our military - been subject to attacks, as have been perpetuated by Donald Trump. Regardless of the results of the November 2020 Presidential election, the damage to our institutions will linger. Political discord will continue as politicians continue to maneuver for power. Social unrest will continue to lie under the surface, from many quarters, occasionally bursting into view. </p><p>The danger lies not just from the potential for Donald Trump to be elected, but also from the precedent Donald Trump has established. Others may well seek to seize control of the agendas of our political parties. As has occurred in civilizations past, the erosion of institutional norms may well continue, leaving citizens longing for stability. And into such a void may well emerge the autocrat, with the ability to further reshape the institutions of our democracy to further his or her own political interests. If the lessons of history are ignored, the United States of America be headed for autocratic rule.</p><span><!--more--></span><p><b>LESSONS FROM HISTORY</b></p><p>Throughout the history of many civilizations, charismatic political leaders had emerged who, through their actions, had usurped democratic forms of government. These individuals often arose during times of significant social or economic disruptions.</p><p><b>The Fall of the Roman Republic</b></p><p>Many historians point to Ancient Rome, whose republic lasting more than four centuries was followed by centuries of dictatorships. Hindered by growing wealth inequality, political gridlock and violence, the subset of citizens of Rome who were at the time afforded political representation eventually acceded to the death of their democracy.</p><p>This transformation to autocratic rule did not occur overnight. Rather, it occurred over decades, and began when those who held political office in the Roman Senate perceived their roles with heightened political importance, and they became arrogant and largely unaccountable for their actions. Efforts at reform were blocked by those unwilling to relinquish their privileged positions in Roman society.</p><p>Eventually the Romans embraced Augustus, who offered stability and the end to fear and dangers (many of whom Augustus had himself fueled), rather than the continuation of decades of political discord.</p><p><b>When Loudness Triumphs Over Reason</b></p><p>In the more recent era, we have seen how the vociferous words and outspoken opinions of emerging autocrats often have become persuasive to many of those within broader electorates, especially those individuals who were pliable and gullible. Couched in terms of language that individual values would be either preserved or restored, followers in the populace emerged. Other supporters emerged, especially after months and years of hearing statements that were drummed into their ears sufficiently loudly and frequently enough that such statements – despite often being untrue and offensive to democratic values – were believed.</p><p>Firewood for the resulting “movements” has often been provided by powerful interests – other politicians, wealthy individuals and business interests – who foresaw a way to support the emerging political leader in return for greater power, maintenance of power, or the furtherance or shift toward government policies which further enhanced their own interests and wealth. </p><p><b>Manipulation, Via the Fear of Contagion</b></p><p>Gifted with oratory, and often a knack for acting, emerging political leaders of this vein often tapped into the fears of many in the electorate, and (like Augustus of Ancient Rome) often worked hard to heighten such fears. Such leaders often manipulated their followers via the fear of contagion, which analogizes those not within their group to possessing of deviant qualities or impurities or dangers that could cause them harm.</p><p>Such leaders were also known for their subtly, and often quickly, shifting gears to ensure that they sold themselves politically to the masses. Especially during the times of their early rise to power, as such leaders sought out the positions that would most appeal to their potential followers.</p><p><b>A Pattern of Lies and Deceit</b></p><p>Yet, lacking the personality trait of “agreeableness,” such leaders would also frequently resort to lies. Despite their untruths, their followers would still embrace these leaders, arguing that the strength of the individual in standing up for them and tackling their fears (which were often created, or substantially amplified, by the leader’s own rhetoric) more than overcame any perceived character flaws of that individual.</p><p><b>Those With Narcissistic Personality Disorder Promote Themselves as "Special" and "Protectors"</b></p><p>Many emerging autocrats, such as Adolph Hitler, often possessed the hallmarks of narcissistic personality disorder – a public persona evidencing grandiosity, a lack of empathy for other people, a need for admiration, and a belief that they should afforded special treatment. While self-centered, manipulative, and arrogant, such individuals would portray themselves as the “only solution” to a set of people’s problems, and would promote themselves as “protectors” of their band of followers.</p><p>In recent decades psychological science has discerned, through observation, that the foundational tendencies in human personality that can be discerned from examination will significantly influence the future decisions and actions of political leaders. Despite the greater ability to categorize and express the level of human personality traits, the field of psychiatry has by and large resisted invitations to provide evidence to the public on the personality traits of current and emerging political leaders.</p><p><b>Recent Autocracies: Putin, Orban</b></p><p>The transformation of “elected officials” into authoritarian rulers was demonstrated in recent historical events, such as power accumulated by Russia’s Vladimir Putin, including effecting constitutional changes that would lead him to maintain power for potentially more decades to come, despite being a criminal mastermind who has disregarded the rule of law to amass what may be the world’s greatest fortune.</p><p>Emulating Putin’s path to autocratic rule has been Viktor Orban, the strongman of Hungary. Elected, as many such emerging autocrats are, on a wave of fear and discontent, Orban has attacked and undermined the media, the judiciary, civil society, the rule of law, and the protection of minority rights. He has undermined the basic fairness of elections, packed his administration and the courts with cronies, and made other moves to consolidate power.</p><p><b>The Authoritarian Wannabee: Trump</b></p><p>Another prime example of an authoritarian ruler wannabe is Donald Trump. He has frequently disrespected the independent judiciary of the United States, demeaned the press, incited violence, used the legal system to spare investigations and punishments of his associates while launching investigations into political opponents (often based on debunked conspiracy theories), and failed to maintain a separation between his own economic interests and the affairs of his office.</p><p>As many would-be autocratic leaders have done, Trump has attacked the validity of election processes, and the election results themselves. He has touted his freedom from oversight, and used delays in judicial proceedings to shelter the activities of both himself and those who serve him from scrutiny. And, when any of his transgressions are called out, he asserts that only he knows what is right or wrong, and he lies rather than admit to any mistake he may have made.</p><p>It is easy to tear down an institution. Just as it is easy to oppose a current or proposed law, or regulation. What makes effective leaders is seeking to modify, or transform, existing structures to make them better, through well-crafted proposals that, when exposed to scrutiny, will eventually gain support and be enacted. Yet, authoritarians, such as Trump, nearly always just tear down existing structures, with no real plan for improvements or replacements.</p><p>Similar to the earlier conflicts in Rome, that eventually led to its fall, the damage done by Trump to the democratic institutions of the United States will be felt for decades to come. Even this assumes Trump is not re-elected. As of the time of this writing (Aug. 2020), many political observers greatly fear the further damage Trump could cause, either prior to the 2020 elections as well as thereafter.</p><span><!--more--></span><p><b>POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS</b></p><p><b>Should Political Parties Protect Us From Potential Tyrants?</b></p><p>To prevent the rise of political leaders with personality disorders that made them substantially likely to abuse the power of their office and seek to extend their rule, the principle might be adopted that, during the process of elections for national offices, political parties must undertake formal psychological reviews of all candidates. Political parties could possess the authority, and the duty, to prevent any candidate deemed unfit for political office, by reason of psychological traits that could lead to autocratic rule, from appearing on the ballot as a representative of such party.</p><p>There will be resistance to such a concept, of course. There is something to be said for the right of any person to "run for office." Yet, our Constitution does not address, directly, the role of political parties, and their function as a potential aid in the continuation of democracy. Nor does a person's exclusion from a political party mean that the person could not run for office - either in another party, or by forming a new political party.</p><p>Such a new grant of authority, or responsibility, to political parties is not, in itself, a sufficient deterrent to the accumulation of power by an individual, or a group of individuals. Other measures must be considered.</p><p><b>Should Limits Be Placed Upon Monetary Political Contributions?</b></p><p>The control over political institutions in the United States of America by monied interests, that increased substantially in the late 20th Century, and accelerated in the early 21st Century (in significant part due to the <i>Citizens United</i> decision), needs to be addressed - likely via a Constitutional amendment.</p><p>Under such an amendment, limited public financing of all elections would take place.</p><p>In addition, no organization or corporation could utilize its funds to promote the election of any particular candidate for national, state or local office; this prohibition extends even to unions and other not-for-profit entities. Political action committees that support, directly or in a significant way indirectly, specific political candidates or political parties, would be banned - or at least severely restricted.</p><p>Finally, each individual citizen would only be permitted to contribute a maximum monetary amount to the campaigns of all political candidates (or to the support or non-support of any political issue) in any one calendar year. The amount would be not greater than five percent of the median annual income of the average U.S. citizen.</p><p><b>Should Government Agency Inspector Generals Be Appointed by the U.S. Congress?</b></p><p>The model of separation of powers, between an executive branch, a legislative branch, and an independent judiciary, is seen by the experts to be an essential bulwark against the emergence of an authoritarian ruler. However, the ability of the legislative branch to oversee the actions of the executive branch, in the current government of the United States, is now seen to be weak, as a result of many actions undertaken by Trump that have challenged political norms.</p><p>One potential solution is for inspectors general in government agencies would be appointed, and be subject to removal from office, by the U.S. Congress. Again, this may require a Constitutional amendment.</p><p><b>Enforce Oversight of the Executive Branch via Timely Judicial Resolution of Disputes.</b></p><p>Additionally, it might be determined that all executive department officials, excluding only the President, would be compelled to testify before Congress, and would not be able to refuse testimony on the grounds of executive of other privilege. In addition, Congressional subpoenas for documents from the executive branch would be required to be honored.</p><p>To ensure that disputes between the executive branch and the legislative branch regarding the propriety of such requests for testimony or documents, or regarding other disputes between the two branches, judicial review of such disputes could be accelerated. For example, any dispute brought before the D.C. Court of Appeals (acting as a court of original jurisdiction) should be decided within forty days. Any appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court of any such decisions should then be filed, briefed and argued not later than forty days following the D.C. Court of Appeals decision (assuming the Supremes agree to hear such an appeal).</p><p><b>Should Term Limits Be Instituted for National Political Offices?</b></p><p>Even with the changes noted above, there would be no guarantee that democratic institutions would be attacked by an emerging autocrat who hijacked the institutions of power. Accordingly, term limits should be applied to prevent those with political power using such power to perpetuate and expand their influence. In this fashion, the ascension to political office would, it was hoped, be viewed as the opportunity to serve the public good, rather than the accumulation and preservation of political power.</p><p>For example, perhaps no person should hold political office as a U.S. Senator or U.S. Representative for a term exceeding six years, within that person’s lifetime. But, as an exception, a U.S. Representative could run for office as a U.S. Senator, provided that the total time spent in both positions would not exceed twelve years.</p><p>Additionally, the term of office of the President and Vice-President could be limited to a single term of four years. A Vice-President could, however, run for office as President and succeed to that position following her or his tenure as Vice-President.</p><p>Regardless of the foregoing, in no instance could any person serve in the positions of U.S. Representative, U.S. Senator, Vice-President, or President, for a combined term exceeding twelve years.</p><p>In this manner, national political office would no longer be a lifetime vocation, but rather the opportunity for citizens to rise up in the service of their country for brief periods of time.</p><span><!--more--></span><p><b>FOSTERING THE POLITICAL DISCOURSE</b></p><p>No doubt some readers of this post will view same as an anti-Republican, anti-Trump diatribe. Yet, dangers can arise from either the left or the right.</p><p>The present danger is Donald Trump. He has eroded our democracy. In this wake are other political leaders, from either major political party (or perhaps a new political party), who may seize upon the disruption to our political norms.</p><p>There are also those, from both major political parties, who continue to seek to perpetuate their own political power. Some do so not to serve the people, but rather to retain power. Often such individuals are supported by monied interests. Huge political contributions by the wealthy, and by corporations, fuel the re-election of demagogues in political venues around the country, transform reasoned discourse into mere promotion of special interests, and sometimes leads to corruption.</p><p>We must begin the steps to return this republic to a representative democracy - in which the interests represented are those of individual citizens. And in which service in national office is not a right, nor a tradition, nor a means to accumulate personal power - but rather the opportunity and responsibility to serve the people.</p><p>In his speech of 1838, Abraham Lincoln also stated: "Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant to step the ocean and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest, with a Bonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from the Ohio or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years. At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer. If it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us; it cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide."</p><p>Let us renew our passion for democracy. Let us foster the discussion of these, and other ideas, that will strengthen our democracy over time, and prevent its descent into autocratic rule or control by powerful interests. Let us restore the principles that form the foundations of our democracy, through concerted action over time. Let us to be silent, for to do so could, as Lincoln warned so long ago, cause our own destruction.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-22078699968428071782020-08-06T12:19:00.003-04:002021-06-08T11:24:28.198-04:00The DOL's Proposed "Fiduciary Rule" Guts Protections for Retirement Plan Savers and Investors<style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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</style><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> 1441 Riva Ridge Ave.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Bowling Green, KY 42104<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> E-mail: </span><a href="mailto:ron.rhoades@wku.edu"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">ron.rhoades@wku.edu</span></a><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Via submission to the rulemaking portal:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><a href="http://www.regulations.gov/"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">www.regulations.gov</span></a><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Docket ID number: EBSA-2020-0003. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">August 6, 2020<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Office of Exemption Determinations <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Application No. D-12011<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">U.S. Department of Labor, EBSA</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><br /><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Office of Exemption Determinations</span><br /><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">200 Constitution Avenue NW,</span><br /><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Suite 400</span><br /><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">Washington, DC 20210</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Re: ZRIN 1210-ZA29 [Application No. D-12011]<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">“Improving Investment Advice for Workers & Retirees”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Ladies and Gentlemen:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">I write on my own behalf to express my severe concerns regarding the relaxation of ERISA’s high standards of conduct, and the non-application of the fiduciary standard, as proposed by components of the proposed rule. I am a registered investment adviser and Certified Financial Planner™ who often provides advice to participants in ERISA-covered plans. I am also an attorney, university professor,<a href="applewebdata://9998F198-D280-4008-8870-1CE486AA86F3#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10.5pt;">[1]</span></span></span></a> and a researcher and writer/presenter on topics relating to the application of fiduciary duties to the delivery of investment and financial advice and recommendations. As a university professor, I have taught classes in Retirement Planning, Applied Investments, Advanced Investments, Insurance and Risk Management, Business Law, and Money and the Capital Markets, as well as several other classes relating to topics in financial planning. I have also served as a consultant to broker-dealer firms. As a result of my unique perspective, I believe my comments can assist the U.S. Department of Labor to effect a more reasoned rule-making.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The Time Permitted to Develop and Provide Comments Is Not Sufficient.</span></u></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The Employee Benefits Security Administration (“EBSA”) had this proposed regulation published in the Federal Register, and the U.S. Department of Labor (“DOL”) only provided 30 days to submit comments on the proposed rule, an insufficient time for the American public to review and respond to a complex, 123-page proposed rule. I hereby incorporate by reference my prior submission of July 7, 2020, expressing my concerns that this limited period of time, especially during a pandemic, does not meet the requirements of the Administrative Procedure Act’s (“APA”). Under the APA, agencies are required to provide the public with adequate notice of a proposed rule followed by a meaningful opportunity to comment on the proposed rule’s content. <i>See</i> <i>Rural Cellular Ass'n v. F.C.C</i>., 588 F.3d 1095, 1101 (</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">D.C. Cir. 2009)<i><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"> (citing Gerber v. Norton,</span></i><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"> </span>294 F.3d 173<span style="background-color: white;">, 179 (D.C. Cir. 2002)</span>. This includes giving “interested persons an opportunity to participate in the rule making through submission of written data, views, or arguments….” 5 U.S.C. § 553(c). Courts have emphasized that the APA’s notice and comment requirements “serve important purposes of agency accountability and reasoned decision making” and impose a significant duty on the agency” to allow for meaningful and informed comment.” <i>Am. Medical Ass’n v. Reno</i>, 57 F.3d 1129, 1132-133 (D.C. Cir. 1995). Given the unreasonably compressed time to comment on this proposal, I have not possessed a meaningful opportunity to research the law and the economic impacts, and to submit written data to properly inform this rulemaking. Nevertheless, I will submit what comments I can; however, these comments are necessarily less substantial, in both number and in terms of explanation and supporting argument, than previous comment letters I have submitted to the DOL and to the SEC on their fiduciary regulation and Regulation Best Interest and related rulemaking proposals, given the very limited time provided to analyze the proposed rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The Proposed Rule Thwarts the Will of the U.S. Congress.</span></u></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The plain language of ERISA establishes a multitude of protections for plan participants in ERISA-covered defined contribution plans, including fiduciary duties, the prudent investor rule, and the prohibited transaction rules. ERISA-covered retirement plans possess tax advantages. In addition, the U.S. Congress has long recognized, under ERISA and its various amendments, the need to ensure protection to plan sponsors and to plan participants. The proposed rule guts these protections, effectively (and especially by the release’s pointing to the use of Regulation Best Interest, a non-fiduciary standard of conduct for broker-dealer firms and their registered representatives) gutting the protections which the U.S. Congress expressly mandated be in place and maintained for ERISA-covered plans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The Proposed Rule Violates the Requirements for a Class Exemption, Generally.</span></u></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Generally, the proposed rule violates long-standing interpretations of ERISA by granting a class exemption from ERISA that is not in “the interest of” plan sponsors and investors in retirement plans and IRAs, and which is not “protective of the rights” of such plan sponsors and investors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Generally, the proposed rule ignores the established fact that no man can wear “two hats,” and that operating as a fiduciary to a qualified retirement plan, or in adherence to the requirements of the class exemption from the prohibited transaction rules, cannot be practically accomplished (without substantial transgressions occurring) when investment product sales are undertaken.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The “sole interests” fiduciary standard of ERISA can be modified by a class exemption, but under long-standing legal principles only if the “best interests” fiduciary standard is applied in a manner protective of the interest of plan sponsors and plan participants. The proposed class exemption does not meet the requirements of the “best interest” fiduciary standard of conduct, which requires that any conflict of interest not merely be disclosed (as Regulation Best Interest’s non-fiduciary standard of conduct effectively only requires, and under which the DOL states this class exemption will be interpreted). There is no requirement under the DOL’s proposal – as it is to be interpreted according to the DOL – that any resulting conflicts of interest be properly managed in order to meet the “best interests” fiduciary standard and the requirement that the interests of the plan sponsors and plan participants be protected.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The Secretary of Labor’s statement in a press release regarding the proposed rule, “Today’s proposed exemption would give Americans <i>more choices</i> for investment advice arrangements, while protecting the retirement savings of American workers” is a <i>red herring</i>. The purpose of the fiduciary standard is to restrain inappropriate conduct – by eliminating poor choices for investors. One of the main tenants of the prudent investor rule as applied under ERISA is to ensure assets of plan participants are not wasted. By permitting conflict-ridden advice to be provided by fiduciary advisors, the Secretary of Labor does not protect Americans’ retirement savings, but instead protects the interests of Wall Street and insurance companies to the detriment of tens of millions of Americans, who will see a significant decline in the value of their retirement accounts due to the waste of their hard-earned assets.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The Proposed Rule Fails to Consider Many, Many Alternatives.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Such alternatives include, but are not limited to:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">A)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">An application of the fiduciary standard of conduct to all those who, by virtue of their actions, enter into a relationship of trust and confidence with the plan sponsor and/or plan participants. The common law application of fiduciary standards should inform the DOL’s rulemaking, but has been wholly disregarded.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">B)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">While the academic research disclosures are largely ineffective in the realm of the provision of investment advice, as to both plan sponsors and plan participants, they can possess mild positive impacts. The proposed rule fails to explore the alternative that all plan sponsors and/or plan participants, when receiving advice or recommendations regarding investments, be informed in writing: (1) as to whether the person and/or firm providing such advice or recommendations is, or is not, a fiduciary; (2) that a plan sponsor is at greater risk of liability when he/she/it relies upon non-fiduciary advice, given the limitations of liability upon broker-dealers and insurance agents and their representatives due to the application of the weak “Regulation Best Interest” and “suitability” standards; (3) that no undue reliance should be placed upon a non-fiduciary provider of investment recommendations, given the arms-length nature of the relationship and the application of caveat emptor (modified only by weak conduct standards applicable to broker-dealer firms and their registered representatives).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">C)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails to consider whether the language of ERISA should simply, and forthrightly, be applied to determine when a fiduciary relationship exist, rather than through the re-application of the distorted “five-part test,” which test runs counter to the express language of ERISA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">D)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails to consider whether the“best interests” fiduciary standard of conduct applicable to class exemptions, which is lower than ERISA’s default “sole interest” fiduciary standard, should be applied in a manner in which conflicts of interest and their potential ramifications to the entrustor are affirmatively disclosed, that entrustor understanding is assured, that informed consent be obtained, and even then the conflict of interest must not result in a transaction which is substantively unfair to the entrustor. The proposed rule fails to recognize that no <i>informed consent</i> can be present, under the best interests fiduciary standard applicable to class exemptions under ERISA, if the entrustor would be harmed by a transaction. And, as is well-established by the academic evidence, higher fees and costs borne by investors result in harm to investors, as the result of lower investment returns.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">As a result, the proposed rule does not reflect a "fair and considered" judgment of the agency, as so many alternatives were not examined by the Agency.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule, by incorporating Reg BI as the means for its interpretation, and by permitting numerous conflicts of interest to exist, does not meet the requirements of ERISA, and effectively negates ERISA’s long-standing interpretation of the duties of an ERISA fiduciary to conduct a “intensive and scrupulous” and “independent” investigation “with the greatest degree of care.”</span></u></b><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> </span></b><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">See, e.g., Donovan v. Bierwirth, </span></i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">538 F. Supp. 463, 470 (E.D.N.Y. 1981),<i> order modified by</i> 680 F.2d 263, 269 (2d Cir. 1982) (Independent investigation into basis for investment decision which presents potential conflict of interest must be both intensive and scrupulous and must be discharged with greatest degree of care that could be expected under all circumstances by reasonable beneficiaries and participants.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">6.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The proposed rule, by permitting commissions and 12b-1 fees to be received by a person acting in a fiduciary capacity, violates the regulatory regime established by Congress for broker-dealers and for registered investment advisers, and their separation of function, since 1940. <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">7.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The Proposed Rule Substantially Fails in Its Economic and Investment Analysis.</span></u></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The added costs borne by plan participants, as a result of actions which will follow from the proposed rule, will result in unreasonable compensation in many instances to providers of investment recommendations to the plan, a violation of the plan sponsor’s fiduciary duty of due care, and will not meet the requirements for a class exemption from the prohibited transaction rules as set forth by statute.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">a.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule does not reflect the reality of economic incentives, as to the provision of poor advice</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">. By permitting a substantial increase in the conflicts of interest, the proposed class exemption provides incentives for investment advice fiduciaries to recommend higher-cost investment products. The simple truth is that economic incentives drive behavior. By providing the ability of fiduciary advisers to receive differential compensation, depending upon the investment products recommended, economic incentives result that will propel the use of higher-cost investment products in retirement plans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">b.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule does not reflect the reality that higher-cost investment products will be provided as a result of the rule, and this will substantially reduce the returns to investors</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">. The academic research is clear - higher-cost investment products result in lower returns for investors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">c.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails to consider that defined contribution plans covered by ERISA, such as 401(k) plans, possess economies of scale.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> As a result, the costs relating to the selection and monitoring of investments for the retirement plan can be spread over all of the plan participants.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">d.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails to take into consideration that commission-based compensation is inappropriate under Modern Portfolio Theory, for individual funds. </span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The typical sales commission of a Class A mutual fund, when provided to an investor in a 401(k) plan, will be 5.75%. The impact of this commission is huge, especially over a limited period of time, and even over long periods of time. Under Modern Portfolio Theory, rebalancing is required to maintain the investor’s strategic asset allocation, or when tactical asset allocation decisions are undertaken. The proposed rule fails to consider the costs of a new 5.75% commission due to such rebalancing actions. This will substantially reduce the returns to investors. I note that the average holding period of all mutual funds is less than 4 years, according to various surveys.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">e.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails to take into consideration that Class C shares, which typically possess a 1.00% 12b-1 fee, possess exorbitant fees for a defined contribution plan</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">, especially since investment advice is provided by defined contribution plans via group educational meetings, web-based tools and educational materials, and only rarely in one-on-one advisor-participant meetings. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">f.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails to take into consideration that 12b-1 fees do not benefit fund shareholders, and can over the course of many years result in unreasonable compensation to the provider of investment recommendations.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">g.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails in its economic analysis by failing to consider the huge increased liability plan sponsors will bear due to the receipt of investment advice that is not fiduciary advice.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Non-fiduciary "retirement plan consultants" and others will increasingly provide recommendations to plan sponsors, as a result of the proposed rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Plan sponsors rely upon such recommendations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Yet, plan sponsors are not investment specialists, nor trained in the application of ERISA’s standards, the prudent investor rule, Modern Portfolio Theory, the ability to discern and compare the benefits, costs, fees, and risks present with regard to mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles, as well as different types of annuities and guaranteed investment contracts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(4)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">This investment advice and investment recommendations provided to plan sponsors under the proposed rule will often fail to meet the requirements of the prudent investor rule, particularly as to its requirement to not waste the assets of plan participants.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(5)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Plan sponsors will be increasingly sued by plan participants, via class action claims.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(6)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">In such litigation, the "retirement plan consultants" and others who are not fiduciaries (as a result of application of the proposed rule) will be able to hide behind the low standard of conduct applied under the SEC's Regulation Best Interest, and will be dismissed from the litigation and absolved from any accountability for their recommendations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 1.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">(7)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Plan sponsors, who are business owners large and small, and who lack their own expertise to adhere to the requirements imposed by ERISA, will incur huge costs to plan participants due to the inappropriate, conflicted investment recommendations they received from such non-fiduciaries. Plan sponsors will be held liable for breaches of their obligations under ERISA, while under the proposed rule more and more providers of conflicted advice will not be so liable. Plan sponsors – U.S. corporations large and small – will incur liabilities to their plan participants in aggregate amounts, over time, of hundreds of millions of dollars, or even billions of dollars.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">h.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails in its economic analysis by failing to consider the increased deterrence effect to plan sponsors who might otherwise desire to initiate and/or maintain defined contributions plans for their employees.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> The proposed rule fails to consider the increased liability which will certainly result upon plan sponsors (corporations), who possess non-waivable fiduciary duties – not only in terms of the huge adverse financial impact from class action litigation, but also the deterrence effect upon other corporations – to start defined contribution plans covered by ERISA – due to the potential liability. This further endangers the retirement security of many Americans, which the U.S. Congress through its adoption of ERISA desired to effectively address by means of providing numerous protections under ERISA to plan sponsors and to plan participants.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">i.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails in its economic analysis by failing to consider the negative impact on the budgets of federal, state, and local governments.</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Increased burdens will result on governments to provide for their senior citizens, as a result, through governmental programs such as Medicaid, food assistance, low-income housing assistance, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-left: 0.75in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">j.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule fails in its economic analysis by failing to consider the impact of higher fees and costs on capital accumulation and U.S. economic growth</span></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">. The higher fees and costs incurred by plan participants will lower the amount of retirement savings. In addition, by providing for the receipt of conflicted advice by plan participants and IRA account owners, those individual investors - who studies have shown rely upon the advice they receive - will see their interests betrayed. As a result, they will lose trust in our financial system of investments, and withdraw their capital from the capital markets. This will decrease the availability of capital, with an increasing impact over time. This raises the cost of capital to American business. In turn, this will severely impair future U.S. economic growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">8.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The proposed rule is contrary to the requirement that plan sponsors and other fiduciaries must act in accordance with the prudent investor rule with respect to retirement plans covered by ERISA.</span></u></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;"> Under Title I of ERISA, plan fiduciaries must act prudently and with undivided loyalty to employee benefit plans and their participants and beneficiaries. The proposed exemption will permit fiduciary advisors to provide advice which does not meet the prudent inventor rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 6pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">9.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><b><u><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">By leading to widespread confusion, the Rule is ambiguous (and nonsensical), on its face, especially as a result of inclusion of the DOL's interpretation (via the application of Regulation Best Interest to interpret the “best interest” fiduciary standard applicable under ERISA and the requirements for a class exemption from the prohibited transaction rules) that runs directly counter to the express language of the Rule. The Rule is, accordingly, not a proper exercise of agency rule-making, as it is not rational; it is arbitrary and capricious</span></u></b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">. The Rule, together with the proposed Agency interpretation that directly contradicts the express language of the Rule, will cause great confusion in the industry. The interpretation made by the agency is not a reasonable interpretation. The DOL's interpretation falls outside the DOL's expertise, as the DOL has no expertise in Reg BI, which just became effective on June 30, 2020 and is just now being beginning to be interpreted by the SEC. Moreover, the DOL has no greater expertise, relative to that of a court, in applying common law fiduciary standards of conduct<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Again, there are many additional flaws with the proposed rule, which I would seek to further discern and comment upon, if sufficient time for a thorough analysis of this proposed rule had been provided by the DOL. This area of rulemaking is complex, with regard to the application of ERISA’s fiduciary or non-fiduciary status, fiduciary standards of conduct (“sole interests” vs. “best interests”), ERISA’s prohibited transaction rules, and the requirements of class exemptions from the prohibited transaction rules. The inclusion of references to the ambiguous Regulation Best Interests, from the SEC, as a means for interpretation of certain requirements in the DOL’s proposed rule, and at a time when the term “best interests” has not been defined nor adequately interpreted by the SEC, further complicates the analysis of the DOL’s proposals.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Regardless, however, it is abundantly clear that the DOL, through this proposed rule, disregards fundamental economic analysis as to many impacts of the rule, seeks to thwart the will of the U.S. Congress, fails to even state much less adequately consider many alternatives that should have been explored in the rule-making processes as required by the APA, and generally disregards the plan language of ERISA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The DOL effectively seeks to gut the protections of ERISA which are provided to plan sponsors and plan participants, and in so doing would reduce ERISA to an empty shell into which conflict-ridden product sales practices will creep, at great harm to individual Americans, Americans’ retirement security, and the accumulation of capital for use in American businesses. In short, this proposed rule possesses major economic impacts, and if adopted the DOL’s proposed rule will endanger the very economic health of our nation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">The DOL should formally withdraw its proposed rule, do its job, and then move (through careful exploration of the alternatives, careful consideration of the will of the U.S. Congress as expressed in the plain language of ERISA, and with due consideration of the practical and economic impacts) formulate a new proposed rule that meets the many statutory requirements of ERISA and the APA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Sincerely, <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 18.4px; margin-bottom: 6pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><br clear="all" /><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /><div id="ftn1"><p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="applewebdata://9998F198-D280-4008-8870-1CE486AA86F3#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">[1]</span></span></span></a> This letter, and my views contained herein, are submitted on my own behalf, and do not necessarily represent the views of any university, other institution, organization, nor firm in which I have or currently am involved.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-42859998425373323602020-08-01T11:30:00.003-04:002021-06-08T11:24:39.681-04:00COVID-19, A Personal Journey<div class="kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div style="border: 0px; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A friend's mother has gone blind due to COVID-19. Other friends have been hospitalized. A few colleagues I've shared dinners with, enjoyed conversations with at various conferences, and accompanied on visits to the U.S. Congress, have died.</span></div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Me? Sheltered at home. Old bears and pandemics don't get along. Yet, the risk still exists. My wife, Cathy, goes to the grocery stores during hours when there is far less traffic (and wears a mask). My daughters visit, and even though they are also hunkered down for the most part, every contact they possess is also a potential chain to which my wife and I may be exposed. (To their credit, when they fear they may have been exposed, my daughters stop their visits, for 14 days.)</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">I read of 20% of Major League Baseball games being cancelled, due to COVID-19 spread among some teams, despite millions of dollars spent to ensure players' safety. I read of 6,000 college students catching COVID-19 in recent months, despite mitigation efforts. I read scientific research demonstrating just how transmissible COVID-19 is, and just how dangerous (mortality risk, and damage to one's health) the infection can be. And I read that there is still much we don't know about COVID-19.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">I see the stress evident - among family members, among my students, and among my clients. Fear. Anger. Anxiety. Depression.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Yet, I know there is hope. More and more Americans are understanding that wearing masks and practicing social distancing is a personal responsibility, and a responsibility to each other. Three major Phase III trials are underway, and more are to come, with a hope for a vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021. Hundreds of therapeutics are under investigation, and a few have already been approved for use - thereby slightly lowering the mortality risk.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Each week brings new insights. Ideas are received from my students. I learn of "best techniques" for online and hybrid learning, and I work diligently to implement them. Plans for the Fall semester continue to be adjusted.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">As a nation, the United States has seen more deaths from COVID-19 than that seen from the Korean, Vietnam, Gulf, and Afghanistan wars combined. And more deaths will come, before we defeat this.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">We will prevail. Not undamaged. Not without grief. Not without remorse over actions that could have been taken to lessen risks to our fellow citizens, but were not.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">We will prevail. And, confronting this challenge will change us, as a nation. Perhaps in ways we don't fully understand at present.</div></div><div class="o9v6fnle cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">We will prevail. Embrace hope. Reach out and assuage another's fear, or grief. Guide others when appropriate. For together, we can persevere.<span> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span> </span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7ru74Y8dFIrw4iPzNlvcoCpCYFeqAy6ojA67Vn4kabHo9x5llJGVnNMz2I_nz6BTG0wB6BofAgUcGh8FjBB6uUkF4lkLdk-fmLpomp6RxJW9YC2ECw9EvsYExvSj09PJiJL_EaWurRzGY/s1080/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1080" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7ru74Y8dFIrw4iPzNlvcoCpCYFeqAy6ojA67Vn4kabHo9x5llJGVnNMz2I_nz6BTG0wB6BofAgUcGh8FjBB6uUkF4lkLdk-fmLpomp6RxJW9YC2ECw9EvsYExvSj09PJiJL_EaWurRzGY/s640/Ron_Speaking_Pencil_2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span><br /></span></div></div>Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5538262205770843821.post-62120023228306042972020-05-21T12:20:00.003-04:002021-06-08T11:24:55.682-04:00The Pandemic: What We Know About Covid-19: Ease of Transmission; Mortality Rates; Masks; Summer Expectations; Therapeutics; Vaccines<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span face="Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><div style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman"; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-shadow: none;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.</span></div>A reader of a recent blog post recently wrote to me: </span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">I thank you for your blog post. </span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">As an active Nurse of 40 years, the present statistics for COVID 19 are alarming. The pros and cons to open our economy are plagued with many questions. Though the economy has begun to open, <i><u><b>increased cases have been seen in my hospital and my unit. Nurses are crying</b></u></i>. As health care professionals, we are wired to give and to care. Though we cannot show this truth, <i><b>we question our ability to weather this storm</b></i>. Many nurses have taken leave of absence. A severe hardship to all. The economy seems to be holding its own for the moment. This is just the beginning. I look forward to further commentary.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The nurse who wrote above likely shares the views of many on the "front line" of this war. Let us try to listen to them better, and heed their warnings.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As we have moved to "re-open the economy," we, as a society, appear to have made the conscious decision to accept tens of thousands of deaths that otherwise would not have occurred. And hundreds of thousands of additional illnesses - some bringing permanent damage to the health of those involved.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Let me stress - I am not against "re-opening the economy." But, <b>I do believe we could be planning and executing the re-opening a lot better.</b> Those who can effectively work at home should, in my view, continue to do so. Those who work in factories should have their workspaces adequately modified to enhance safety, and be provided with appropriate protective gear. Increased measures to facilitate social distancing should be in place. Wearing of masks should be mandated in many situations (and free masks should be supplied to the general population). And so forth.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Here is my most recent update, about the pandemic itself:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="OLE_LINK1"><b><span style="font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">SUNDAY, MAY 17, 2020</span></b></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="OLE_LINK1"><b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">SCHOLAR FINANCIAL SPECIAL REPORT<o:p></o:p></span></b></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1.9pt; line-height: 24.5333px;">COVID-19, the Economy, and the Markets<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">From Dr. Ron A. Rhoades<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>EMAIL: </b><a href="mailto:ron@scholarfinancial.com"><b>ron@scholarfinancial.com</b></a><b> (clients)<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>EMAIL: </b><a href="mailto:ron.rhoades@wku.edu"><b>ron.rhoades@wku.edu</b></a><b> (students, family, friends)<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Sunday, May 17, 2020<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Dear Clients, Students, Family and Friends:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Anxiety. Fear. Despair. Grief. Anger.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">If you are at all like me, you probably have experienced these emotions, and many others, over the past several months. These are perfectly natural emotions, as our lives have been turned upside down from what was “normal” and we continue to face uncertainty as to what life will be like in the months and years ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I wish this <i>Special Report</i> had better news. I wish I could say that soon life would return to normal. While hope remains for treatments and vaccines (as I will discuss shortly), there is also cause for continued concern. And facts that might encourage some of us to think more about the future, and how we live our lives, in different ways.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">First, a look back. In my first “Special Update” this year, on February 28<sup>th</sup> (when there were only 16 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States) I wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Unfortunately, the characteristics of Coronavirus (easy transmission, few or no symptoms in some of those infected, and lower death rates) make this the “perfect” recipe for broad transmission of the disease …<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 16.1px;">[I]t is also plausible that, given the limited resources of our health care system, and the high degree of transmissibility, that a regional outbreak will occur and will then spread through most of the United States. Some health officials have called the spread of Coronavirus in the United States “inevitable,” while others have not yet reached that conclusion.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In mid-March I wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The world is different – at least for a while. For many Americans the next few months will be difficult, as huge changes have and will occur within our society as to how we work and play.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">And, most likely, many of those changes will need to be maintained for the next year. Health experts are reaching a consensus that the Coronavirus infections will peak sometime around early May, but infections will continue thereafter. After a reduction of the number of infections during the Summer, new infections of the Coronavirus will accelerate in the Fall. Hopefully a vaccine will be available, but predictions remain that such a vaccine is highly unlikely until about a year from now.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Compared to many of my professional colleagues, and many economists, I have been fairly pessimistic regarding the potential spread of the disease and its longer-term impact on the economy and the capital markets. Interestingly enough, in just the past couple of weeks, more and more economists are beginning to agree with me. I find no solace here; I wish I had been wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">What We Know About COVID-19: Cases, Deaths, Mortality Rates in the U.S.</span><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">So, where do we stand right now?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Cases in the U.S. Declining, For Now.</u></b> The number of new cases, and the number of new deaths, in the United States has declined over the past two weeks. Stay-at-home orders by most of the nation’s governors helped. But a major reason for the decline is that many U.S. residents simply chose to be safe – to not go out except when absolutely necessary, to wear masks (especially after finally being told this was the right thing to do), to maintain social distancing, and to clean surfaces and wash their hands.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">According to John Hopkins University of Medicine, there have been 1,467,820 reported cases of COVID-19 in the United States as of Saturday, May 16<sup>th</sup>, at 11:46 p.m. The actual number is probably far higher, as many infections are asymptomatic and testing has not occurred. As a result, it is likely that 1 in 200 U.S. residents have been infected with COVID-19.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The United States peaked at about 33,000 new cases each day around mid-April. Even with more robust testing now occurring, new cases fell to as little as 22,000 by around May 10<sup>th</sup>. New cases reported on May 21, 2020 were 23,285.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, even as new cases have declined significantly in New York / New Jersey, new cases are growing in other areas of the country. Over the past five days, the trend has been toward a modest upswing in the number of new cases reported. Again, the actual number of cases is likely higher, as many cases go undetected.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5538262205770843821" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Deaths in the U.S. Declining, for Now. </b>The total number of deaths reported in the United States from COVID-19 are at 89,657 (per NBC News, 11am ET, Sunday, May 17<sup>th</sup>). The number of deaths likely is less than the actual number of deaths due to local/state differences in reporting deaths when multiple medical conditions exist. (A comparison of deaths over the same time periods, from prior years to this year, suggests COVID-19 deaths may be underreported by 10% to 20%.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">By way of comparison, between 2000 and 2018, deaths from influenza (the flu) and pneumonia combined averaged 57,000 annually. Keep in mind, however, that many U.S. residents possess temporary immunity from the flu, as a result of having the same version of the flu in recent years or from vaccinations (which are partially effective, as to the flu, and not a guarantee that you won’t catch influenza).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Also keep in mind that the death toll in the United States would have likely been far greater, had not stay-at-home orders and social distancing measures been in place over the past 6-8 weeks in many states.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The number of deaths per day, measured by a five-day rolling average, has trended downward in the United States. From a high of nearly 2,100 deaths per day, to about 1,400 deaths per day currently.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Mortality Rates by Age.</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It appears that the mortality rate for COVID-19 in the United States – i.e., the likelihood of dying if you catch the virus – is about 0.5% to 1.0%, according to Drs. Jeremy Faust and Carlos del Rio, in a recent peer-reviewed article. This is about 4 to 10 times the mortality rate of those who catch the typical influenza strains (i.e., the “flu”) each year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, the older you are, the more likely you are to die from COVID-19. Data from other countries has confirmed that the older you are, the greater the mortality rate. In Italy, where the health care system was particularly overwhelmed at one point (which likely increased mortality rates), recent data shows a particularly high mortality rate for anyone ages 70 or older.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Here is the U.S. data on mortality rates, by age, as of May 10<sup>th</sup>, according to the Centers for Disease Control: <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex" target="_blank">LINK</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Again, note that actual mortality rates may be higher or lower. If many more people are inflected with COVID-19 than the reported numbers indicate, then the mortality rates would be lower. If, however, the actual number of deaths is much higher than reported numbers indicate, the mortality rates would be even higher than those stated above.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Mortality rates also vary by whether infected persons possess underlying health care conditions that place them at greater risk.</b> The U.S. Centers for Disease Control estimates that “45.4% of U.S. adults are at increased risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer,” according to a new analysis from the CDC. Those at elevated risk include 19.8% of people age 18 to 29 and 80.7% for people over age 80.”<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As the CDC states: "For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It appears, at least in the United States, that about half of all Covid-19 deaths are among people younger than age 80, and more than 20% are among people who’ve yet to reach age 65.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">While the rates for young adults seem low, it still appears that for every 1,000 college students (ages 17-24) who contract COVID-19, 1 of these students would likely die. (I can hope the mortality rate is far less.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>The Pressure to Re-Open the Economy.</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Many states are permitting their residents to return to work in factories and retail stores. Some are opening up entertainment venues, while most are not.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">There is tremendous pressure upon political leaders to “re-open the economy.” Tax revenues have declined significantly, leading to huge budgetary pressures.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Moreover, many U.S. citizens have not only been laid off, but are unable to afford the basic necessities of life (food, clothing, shelter) for themselves and for their families. Imagine being in such a situation and being told, by your own government, “You cannot go to work.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">While unemployment compensation payments and charitable aid (especially food banks) are helping to alleviate some of the personal financial woes that many in today’s workforce face, difficulties abound. Some persons (such as recent college graduates, some of those working for themselves) cannot qualify for unemployment benefits. Others have applied, but backlogs of applications are delaying many payments for weeks, or longer, in many states.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As a result, in the United States, as a result of efforts over the past two months, we have “flattened the curve,” but we have not <i>crushed</i> the curve. There are still 1,300 to 1,400 new deaths each day. There are still some 22,000+ new cases each day. And, as more and more persons venture outside and commingle (many without wearing masks, unfortunately), it is highly likely that the number of new cases in the United States, and deaths, will spike much higher.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">UPDATE: Per CNN, "<span style="background-color: #fefefe; color: #262626; font-size: 18px; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">as of Tuesday (May 19th), at least 17 states have recorded a clear upward trend of average new daily cases -- a rise of at least 10% -- over the past seven days, according to an analysis based on data from Johns Hopkins University."</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Don’t get me wrong. I’m in favor of people going back to work – <i>when necessary, and where it is safe to do so.</i> Even for “essential” workers, however, the toll has already been hard. For example, in New York City at least 260 municipal workers have already died. Now, many of their families face not only a loss of a loved one, but also a loss of income and a loss of health insurance.</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">How Easily is COVID-19 Spread?<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Some of the fundamental information about how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the virus that leads to COVID-19 disease – spreads in the population is yet to be discerned, but we know more now than we did several weeks ago.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">How easy is the virus, on one person’s hands, transmitted to others at a restaurant’s buffet? Apparently quite easily. Watch this video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=kGQEuuv9R6E&feature=emb_logo">(link)</a>. In the video, one guest of 10 at a restaurant buffet is shown with the substance on his hands meant as a stand-in for the coronavirus. Over the course of a typical dining period, the rest of the guests behave in predictable fashion, selecting utensils from serving stations, enjoying their food, checking their phones and so on. At the end of the experiment the backlight is turned on and the substance is revealed to be smeared everywhere: plates, foodstuff, utensils and even all over some of the guests’ faces.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, the novel coronavirus is primarily spread by droplets from someone who is coughing, sneezing or even talking within a few feet away. That’s right – just talking or breathing by an infected person spreads the virus. Coughing and sneezing result in the expulsion of far more virus particles.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It also appears that virus particles can remain suspended in the air – perhaps many minutes after expulsion by sometime talking. While this recent study was not COVID-19 specific, the researchers in the study used laser light sheets to capture on video the movement of small droplets emitted from a person’s mouth as the speaker repeated the phrase “stay healthy” for 25 seconds. They calculated that the <i>half-life</i> of these particles in the air, considering the time it took them to fall 30 cm, was eight minutes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In conclusion, it appears that this virus is very, very easily transmitted from person-to-person. Since many of those who are infected – and capable of transmitting the disease – do not have symptoms, this makes it very difficult to detect and isolate the infected from those who are not.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Should You Wear a Mask When in Public? – Yes! <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Although many governments have ordered or urged residents to don masks, it’s not clear how well most of the masks appearing in the general public today prevent the transmission of the coronavirus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">N95 masks filter 95 percent of particles larger than 0.3 µm (according to an early report describing COVID-19 infections, the SARS-CoV-2 viral particles range from 0.6 to 0.14 µm in diameter, and N95 masks can capture particles of this size). N95 masks are uncomfortable to wear for extended periods. Those N95 masks that have front valves may protect the user, but not others around them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Note: For particles 100-300 nanometres in size: N95 respirators can filter 95% of particles; N99 respirators filter 99% of particles; and N100 respirators filter 99.7% of particles. SARS-COV-2 is estimated to be 125 nm in size. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">For other types of masks, that efficiency varies considerably. Surgical face masks are probably what you think of when you think of a face mask. These are disposable, single-use masks made from pleated synthetic fabric. The fabric is breathable and these masks don't form an airtight seal against the face. How well these types of masks filter pathogens varies according to different studies; given the small size of the virus, these masks likely don’t stop the virus all that well.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">But, these masks may limit the spread, by reducing the air flow from those wearing the mask who are talking, coughing, or sneezing (or even just breathing). In medical parlance, this is called “source control.” In itself, that’s a reason to wear this mask when in public.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Many makers of such masks have appeared, and they can be purchased online. Quality and effectiveness vary.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Seek out the more effective masks - and WEAR THEM when out and about. They can assist others from catching COVID-19, and can help you in not catching COVID-19.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">You are not "weak" for wearing a mask. Rather, you are STRONG. You know that, through your strength, and your perseverance, you can add to our collective will to combat this pandemic. You are part of this war ... so arm yourself!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Will the Spread of the Virus Be Lessened by Summer Weather?</u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Probably, but perhaps only to a moderate extent. The virus degrades outside a host cell, and does so more rapidly when exposed to heat or ultraviolet radiation from the sun. In recent weeks, numerous research studies, based on laboratory experiments, computer models and sophisticated statistical analyses, have supported the view that the coronavirus will be inhibited by summer weather.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">But just having “warm weather” is not enough – you need “hot weather.” Researchers at Harvard and MIT reported that <i>average</i> temperatures above 77 degrees are associated with some reduction in the virus’s transmission; average temperatures even warmer result in additional decreases in transmission. (Each additional 1.8-degree temperature increase above that level was associated with an additional 3.1 percent reduction.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, the transition to summer weather in the continental United States won’t be sufficient to completely contain the virus’s transmission. Partly this is because so many of us work and live in air-conditioned buildings, where temperatures are kept much cooler and humidity is far less. Partly because the virus is still transmitted by an infected person, even in very hot weather – the virus just dies off quicker. Even now, in tropical areas of the world, large outbreaks of COVID-19 are occurring.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>What About Therapeutics, to Lessen Symptoms of those Infected?</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The search is on for drugs that will lessen the symptoms of those infected, and lower mortality rates. 216 different treatments are now under consideration.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">But just one treatment has been approved thus far for widespread use, and its effects are just moderate. Remdesivir by Gilead, a Californian pharmaceutical company, is the first drug that has scientifically been proven to be effective against COVID-19. The treatment is a repurposed drug that was originally developed for other diseases. Results showed a 31% faster time to recovery in patients treated with Gilead’s drug versus a placebo. The median time to recovery was 11 days versus 15 days, respectively. The National Institutes of Health also noted a survival benefit, where the Remdesivir group had an 8% mortality rate compared to 11.6% with placebo, as to those patients who were already very sick when first given the medication.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The application of Remdesivir has large implications for our health care resources, however. Hospital capacity increases by about 30 percent since people are spending 30 percent less time in the hospital; that means the hospital is now treating 30 percent more people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">There are new announcements about “breakthroughs” in therapeutic treatments each week. I’m optimistic that some of these will prove more effective than Remdesivir, and that they may enter into large-scale production by later this year. I’m more optimisitic about therapeutic treatments (that don’t block the disease from occurring, but lessen its severity – and hopefully reduce mortality rates), than I am about vaccine development, for reasons explained below.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">When Will a Vaccine Be Ready?</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">A vaccine is an ultimate solution and everyone is doing their best to get a vaccine out by the end of this year or January 2021. There are currently 133 vaccines under development in laboratories. But few vaccine candidates make the transition from the laboratory to clinical trials.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, it is possible that 10-12 of the current vaccine candidates will enter into at least the first stage of three stages of human trials necessary to ensure a vaccine’s safety and effectiveness. (In some instances, Phases I and II, or Phases II and III, are being combined to accelerate development. Multiple Phase II trials are often involved, proceeding in parallel, to address the impacts of such variables as dose, age group, etc.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">E ven then, there is no guarantee that any the vaccine candidates will be proven safe and effective enough to devote resources to their manufacture. By some estimates, more than 90% of vaccines fail during one of the three phases of trials.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">So many viral diseases have been conquered by vaccination — smallpox, polio, mumps — that the development of vaccines as a cure seems like the solution that will appear. But not all viral diseases are equally amenable to vaccination. In fact, COVID-19 is on the difficult end of the scale, when it comes to developing vaccines against it. Some researchers fear that COVID-19 may be a disease for which it may take a decade, or longer, to find a vaccine; they note that there has never been a vaccine approved for other versions of the coronavirus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Despite the high rate of failure of vaccines in clinical trials, production of a few vaccines may even begin by September (prior to the date when the vaccine candidates have finished trials and are proven safe and effective). With eight vaccines currently in human trials, the stated objective is to establish the manufacturing capacity to generate a millions and millions of doses quickly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">But the numbers are daunting. Even if a vaccine is deemed safe and effective, with 330 million people in the United States, and nearly 8 billion worldwide, the manufacture of sufficient quantities of the drug is a huge challenge. Also, many countries that are working on vaccines have indicated that, if they are successful, their own residents get the vaccine first. Even over health care workers in other countries, and others at the most significant risk. Does this sound like other countries are not being very noble? Even some U.S. political leaders have stated the same policy, although it is more likely that only a percentage of manufactured doses would be reserved for U.S. citizens if the vaccine becomes manufactured in the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In the U.S., a government agency such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would probably decide where newly authorized vaccines should be delivered and which groups should get immunized first, public-health experts say.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Even if a vaccine candidate survives the trials, is manufactured and distributed, and even if vaccinations are received by many U.S. citizens, the effectiveness of the vaccine may vary. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">No vaccine is 100% effective. Some individuals, even for vaccines deemed very effective (such as the measles vaccine, in children), don’t respond to the vaccine and develop sufficient antibodies to ward off infection if later exposed to the virus. The older a person is, or when a person’s immune system is other suppressed, the more likely it is that a vaccination will not trigger sufficient production of antibodies within the body. One review of influenza vaccine studies showed that they were 83% effective in children ages up to 7 years, but only 59% effective in adults age 18-65, and far less effective (to prevent the disease altogether) in older persons. (However, vaccines in older persons, even when not effective to prevent acquisition of the disease, may still reduce the probability of hospitalization of death by a significant degree).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Even in those persons who receive vaccinations, and develop sufficient antibodies, the effectiveness may not last for long. Some vaccines provide protection for a person’s lifetime (such as polio, and measles in 96% or more of cases). But others only last for years, requiring “booster shots” later. For the flu vaccine, maximum immunity occurs shortly following vaccination, but decreases with each passing month. (For this reason, many doctors suggest holding off on getting the “flu shot” each year until late October or November, rather than rushing to obtain it when it typically becomes available in mid- to late September.)</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In Conclusion.</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">No, I’m not depressed, when writing this. And I didn’t mean to cause you to be depressed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m just sorting through the studies, and observations of many of those in our health care community, and trying to convey to you – the reader – the challenges that lie ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I do remain hopeful.</span><br />
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">That more therapeutic treatments will become available that lessen the severity and duration of the disease; if such are particularly effective, this could lead us to treat COVID-10 in the same manner that we treat the flu viruses each year.</span></span><br />
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<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">That some vaccine will survive the trials, and become manufactured in sufficient quantities, to lessen the number of people infected each year.</span></span><br />
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<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">That, over the longer term, the tremendous advances in genetics and medical research, in general, will lead to even greater discoveries that render not just COVID-19 a thing of the past, but also the flu virus, the common cold, and more of the viral infections that continue to cause suffering for millions each year.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Continue Safe Practices. </b>I do believe it is prudent for you to continue the safety measures you have adopted over the past several weeks.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">And, I suggest to you that you may desire to consider what a “new normal” might look like. Identify new activities that you can undertake, that can be undertaken even if COVID-19 sticks around for quite a long time. Here are just a few ideas:</span><br />
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<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Learn new ways to stay connected with others.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Spatial distancing is unnatural. People who reside in countries where there is a strong emphasis on community and family networks often have the lowest rates of chronic disease, and report greater life satisfaction.</span><br />
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<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">If confined to home, plan out your day as much as possible.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Take regular breaks to walk around.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->If possible, physically separate your professional activities from your private family / personal areas.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Regularly exercise.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Practice relaxation techniques.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Explore mindfulness.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Eat at regular times.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Be selective and limit the time you watch the news.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Embrace hobbies and activities you’ve always wanted to try, or discern new ones.</span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Make a list of books (or types of books) to read. Explore online (free) libraries in your community.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Consider, if you are an avid reader, a “Kindle unlimited” subscription.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Explore online educational courses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";">o<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Take walks in nature (where there are not a lot of people around).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ll write in a few weeks about the economy and the capital markets, in this continued era of uncertainty. Until then, stay safe, and explore new ways of engaging with others. All my best.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In the interim, always feel free to contact Cathy and myself. We are here to answer your questions, and to address any concerns you may possess, and to provide guidance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Thank you,<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 27.6px;">Ron<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Financial Advisor<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Scholar Financial<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®http://www.blogger.com/profile/09921762176161872029noreply@blogger.com0