COVID-19: A Message to My University Students ... from Da Bear (REVISED DEC. 31, 2020)

ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.

University students around the country should keep abreast of the latest news about the Coronovirus. In so doing, seek out credible news sources - that rely upon medical experts, not pundits with a political agenda.

THIS POST, originally issues in March 2020, was REVISED ON 12/31/2020 to reflect new data about COVID-19, its treatments, and information about vaccinations.

To My Scholars:

I hope you are doing well. As you return from Winter Break, Western Kentucky University (and many other colleges) remain "open." Similar to the Fall 2020 semester, at WKU some classes will be held online, some will occur in "hybrid" fashion, and some classes will be fully in-person (with social distancing measures taken).

Most students will feel that online instruction is inferior to in-person instruction. As will many faculty members. Yet, our students know that at WKU our faculty have undertaken a tremendous effort to identify "best practices" for online instruction, and to implement those practices in their classes. Let us control what we can, and not moan about what we can't control. Instead, let us all re-double our efforts to learn and grow, as much as the present situation will permit.

The COVD-19 outbreak in the United States is a very significant event we are experiencing. The disruption to people's lives continues to be difficult for many. Large numbers of our students and their families have been affected, as have our alumni and so many others.

I'd like to convey these messages to you. (I speak for myself, only, and not for my university, in making these statements. But I hope you find these insights and perspectives useful.)

• When you are eligible, get vaccinated. (And make certain that your family members, over age 16, get vaccinated too.)
• The best news this Fall has been that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are about 95% effective - a very, very high number (relative to most other vaccines, such as those against influenza).
• The vaccines are also very, very safe. There is a 15-minute required period of monitoring after receipt of a vaccination, but generally the side effects are very, very mild.
• More study results are needed before the vaccines will be approved for those ages 16 and under.
• It is unknown how long the vaccine will be effective for. Some scientists predict that re-vaccination may be required every few years; others predict annual vaccinations will be required. The data just is not available yet.
• Sadly, the first few weeks of vaccinations appear to be rolling out slowly, as I write this on New Years' Eve 2020.
• Let's hope vaccinations kick into gear quickly in January 2021!
• Who gets vaccinated first? Each state establishes its own guidelines as to who gets vaccinated next, although most states are following the announced U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guidelines. These guidelines indicate the following schedule  for vaccinations:
• Phase 1a: 25 million Americans eligible
• Health care workers
• Nursing home (and assisted living) residents
• Phase 1b
• Frontline essential workers such as fire fighters, police officers, corrections officers, food and agricultural workers, United States Postal Service workers, manufacturing workers, grocery store workers, public transit workers, and those who work in the educational sector (teachers, support staff, and daycare workers.)
• People aged 75 years and older because they are at high risk of hospitalization, illness, and death from COVID-19. People aged 75 years and older who are also residents of long-term care facilities should be offered vaccination in Phase 1a.
• Phase 1c
• People aged 65—74 years because they are at high risk of hospitalization, illness, and death from COVID-19. People aged 65—74 years who are also residents of long-term care facilities should be offered vaccination in Phase 1a.
• People aged 16—64 years with underlying medical conditions which increase the risk of serious, life-threatening complications from COVID-19.
• Other essential workers, such as people who work in transportation and logistics, food service, housing construction and finance, information technology, communications, energy, law, media, public safety, and public health.
• The foregoing are pretty large groups. And other groupings may exist thereafter. If you are college-age (18-24 or so) and don't possess an underlying health condition that elevates you to a different grouping, don't expect to be eligible to be vaccinated until April, May or even June. (But let's hope the roll-out occurs faster!)

• If you are opposed to vaccinations, or mask-wearing, or social distancing, I ask that you engage in critical thinking and to re-examine your beliefs. What does this involve?
• First, ignore the typical news outlets, social media sources, and other information you typically might be receiving. There is a lot of disinformation out there in our modern society, much of it pushed out by those with political agendas, people who desire attention, and others.
• Second, seek out reliable information from health care providers, scientists, and other trusted sources. (If we don't place at least some trust in those who take care of us when we are ill, and in science, who is left? Do we instead trust speculation, superstition, or blindly follow the many prognosticators who seem to seek out attention? I hope not.)
• Third, consider taking on this as a "personal assignment" - argue both sides of the position you are taking. Look for the evidence that supports the opposite of your own beliefs, and then compare that to the evidence that supports your own view. In other words, challenge yourself to closely examine the evidence from all sides.
• CRITICAL THINKING is an essential skill - in the world of business, and in all areas of life. We should constantly invite new information that challenges our beliefs. We should all seek to understand the arguments of "the other side."

• Just because you are young does not mean that you can't die from the Coronavirus. But deaths among those under the age of 30 - while they can happen - are relatively rare. In fact, for those in the U.S. ages 20-24, the mortality (death rate) is only 6 in 100,000 (a bit more for males, a bit less for females). Here are some statistics from a November 2020 study appearing in Nature, a leading scientific publication:
• Mortality (death) rates among those infected are less than 1% for those under age 65, and only about 0.01% for those ages 20-24.
• But, mortality rates climb dramatically for older persons who contract COVID-19. Those ages 65-69 who contract COVID-19, for example, have about a 1.1% of dying. And those who are even older have dramatically higher death rates.

Source: O’Driscoll, M. et al. "Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2." Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2918-0 (2020).

• HOWEVER, those with hypertension (high blood pressure), diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD or chronic respiratory difficulties of any kind, cancer, and other underlying health care conditions may possess significantly higher mortality rates.

• Mortality rates vary by race. COVID-19 death rates among confirmed or probable cases, according to a Washington State Department of Health study published on December 23, 2020:

• White populations have the lowest death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases of all race/ethnicity groups.
• NHOPI (Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander) populations have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are six times higher than white populations.
• AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are four times higher than whites.
• Hispanic populations have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are four times higher than whites.
• Black populations have death rates among confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases that are about twice as high as white populations.

• Mortality rates have declined since early 2020. According to a Nov. 17, 2020 article appearing at MedToday, titled "Here's Why COVID-19 Mortality Has Dropped," The "COVID-19 mortality rate in the U.S. has fallen since the start of the pandemic. That decline has no single, clear explanation, but experts have pointed to a host of contributing factors, including a higher proportion of cases among the young, increased knowledge of how to treat COVID patients, better therapies, and less overcrowding in hospitals."
• Yet, the number of those who are dying has increased this Fall and Winter, as the number of cases has surged.
• In some parts of the country, overburdened hospitals will likely result in higher mortality rates than would otherwise be seen ... there are shortages of doctors, nurses, and other health care workers in several parts of the country, and a shortage of hospital beds in some areas as well. 

• Even if you don't die from COVID-19, for many (including college students) who get the disease, the symptoms can be severe, and last longer than the typical flu (or even weeks, or months). I have been told by several 20-somethings who contracted the disease that they experienced a most of symptoms, for several days or longer, that made the typical "flu" look more like the "common cold." While others have had few symptoms, or only some symptoms for a few days.
• People with these symptoms may have COVID-19:
• Fever or chills
• Cough
• Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
• Fatigue
• Muscle or body aches
• Headache
• New loss of taste or smell
• Sore throat
• Congestion or runny nose
• Nausea or vomiting
• Diarrhea
• Look for emergency warning signs for COVID-19. If someone is showing any of these signs, seek emergency medical care immediately:
• Trouble breathing
• Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
• New confusion
• Inability to wake or stay awake
• Bluish lips or face
 
• Stay at home, unless it is required that you go to work, classes, etc. 
  • It is very, very easy to catch COVID-19.
  • The "peak" of infections will likely occur sometime in January 2021. But it won't be until late April, or May or even June, before the incidence of infections drops quite low.
  • A new variant of the virus, originating (it is believed) in the United Kingdom, has found its way to parts of the U.S.
  • Preliminary data suggests that this variant of COVID-19 is more transmissible. If this is true, it could increase the number of cases in the U.S. throughout early 2021, and perhaps into mid-2021.
  • However, the same data suggests that this variant does not increase mortality risk, and also that the current vaccinations are likely to be as effective against the variant as other strains already existing.

• The only way to slow the transmission of the Coronovirus throughout the U.S. is for most of us to "hunker down."
  • Don't become infected.
  • Even if you have no or mild symptoms, you could easily transmit the disease to others, who may not be so fortunate.
  • I know you want to socialize. I know the past many months have been frustrating. But, several more months of patience are required. Unless you are required to go out ...
    • Stay home.
    • STAY HOME.
    • S T A Y   H O M E.

• If you have already been infected ...
• The data simply is not in as to whether you can transmit COVID-19 to others; it might be possible to be a carrier of the virus in your upper respiratory tract, even though you have antibodies to fight off any new infections. Science has not yet answered this question. So ... wear a mask! And continue to isolate.
• Can you get infected again? It is very rate - at least for several months after getting COVID-19.
• Should you get vaccinated? Yes. The vaccine increases a certain antibody in your body by 200 TIMES the number of antibodies you possess from having earlier contracted the disease. And the antibodies generated by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more likely to be effective (at least for several years, scientists hope) against new variants of the disease. 

• Should you run errands for others, who are older or who have underlying health conditions? (Probably ... but will you catch COVID-19 and bring it back with you?)
  • Discuss this with your family.
  • It would be better to have groceries, necessaries, etc. - delivered to your home, than to have you go out.
  • Again, your "mortality risk" is NOT zero, even if you age 21 and in excellent health.
  • If you do catch COVID-19, you may be "asymptomatic," or you may be one of those who have horrible symptoms - lasting for days (or weeks, and in a few cases many months).

• Engage in good behaviors.
• Wear a mask. To protect you, and to protect others.
• Let me repeat this ... WEAR A MASK whenever you are around those not in your household.
• Let me repeat ... W E A R   A   M A S K.
• Maintain distance from other people, when out and about. 6-7 feet when outside, if at all possible.
• Wash your hands before and after each meal, and several other times each day. With soap. For 20 seconds. Rinse thoroughly.
• Try not to go out. Hunker down!

• Stay informed.
• Educate yourself about appropriate actions you should be taking, to protect both you and your family and other loved ones.
• Seek out trusted sources of online information.

• Encountering Difficulties? Concerns? Questions? Or Don't Know Where to Turn? Email or call Da Bear.
  
  • No one should be forced to drop out from college due to financial or other difficulties you may encounter from COVID-19. If you are encountering such difficulties, and don't know where to turn, let me know. I'll try my best to find a solution for you.
  • Don't panic.
  • Do take prudent, measured actions.
  • These are stressful times. If you have an issue you would like to talk over, I'm here for you.
  • Email (preferred): ron.rhoades@wku.edu

TAKE THE ACTIONS NECESSARY TO BE SAFE. 

   Take care. - Bear