6th Update on the Coronavirus: Some Hope, But Much Cause for Concern

ALL POSTS PRIOR TO 2021 HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED NOR APPROVED BY ANY FIRM OR INSTITUTION, AND REFLECT ONLY THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR.

Wednesday, March 19, 2020 - 10:00 p.m. CT

Another Special Update from Scholar Financial

More Insights Into the Coronavirus

Summary

As we learn more and more about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), there is hope … but there is also cause for concern.

According to one study, while the rates of severe illness and mortality (death) increase with age, even young adults have significant risk. Approximately 2-4% of those younger adults (ages 20-44) who catch the Coronavirus will end up in intensive care units (if beds are available).

And, it may be necessary for most of the population to undertake social distancing for many months, according to another study.

The U.S. Congress is putting together a $1 Trillion stimulus package, to keep the economy afloat. I suspect that even more stimulus will be needed, throughout 2020, and perhaps even into 2021.

There are many brave “essential” souls who are transporting and selling groceries, prescriptions, and other necessaries. And delivering health care, often without adequate supplies and other resources.

Let us hope that many of us who are working at home, or furloughed already, can return to work within the next 2-3 months.

Regardless, I do believe our economy will adjust. Retail deliveries will substantially increase, not just for necessaries but for other goods. Safety measures will be put in place to permit even more individuals to return to work in our factories, stores, and offices in the months ahead. We can and will find ways to adapt - and survive. Because that’s what we do. In times of crisis, we pull together. Our innovative nature drives forth solutions.

The Hope.

The hope lies in our ability to roll out many more test kits within a couple of weeks. It appear that 80% of those who are younger and who get the disease will have little or no symptoms.

And it seems (though this is far from certain) that those who get the disease may have protection from getting it again … at least anytime soon. That would permit those who have had the disease to “get back to work,” so to speak. (Although, of course, many “essential” workers – especially in health care, and those transporting and providing necessary goods to us – are still working.

Additionally, it appears increasingly likely that summer heat and humidity may deter the spread of the disease.

Even the Young Can Get Severely Ill. 

However, the concern lies in the 20% who do suffer symptoms. A CDC report, released today, can be found at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w. 

The report states: “This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.”

But, the report goes on to state, however, that 1 in 7, and perhaps as much as 1 in 5, of those between the ages of 20 and 44 who contract the Coronavirus require hospitalization. And between 2% and 4% of those ages 20 to 44 will be admitted to intensive care units (providing, of course, beds are available).

In other words, even younger adults are at risk.

While the fatality rate for those ages 20-44 is only about 0.1% to 0.2%, that range is from 1 in 1000, to 1 in 500. Not an insignificant risk.

Why Social Distancing Needs to Be Everywhere.

The epidemiological study that spurred on the widespread adoption of social distancing (i.e., stay at home if possible; don’t congregate with others) has now been released. Read the study at:  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf.

The report notes that “mitigation” strategies are insufficient, stating: “We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”

The report then looks at “suppression” as a strategy, instead, and states: “We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members ... The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

In Conclusion.

Reach out (via email, lext, phone, FaceTime, Skype, etc.) to your family and friends. In times of unique stress, as we are experiencing, talking with those whom we know, and letting them know we care, can be a powerful form of medicine.

And practice self-help. Get exercise, each and every day. Meditate. Write in a gratitude journal (or app). Eat healthily. Get plenty of sleep.

Together we will get through these times. The road may be long, or at least seem that way. But there is a bright horizon ahead, even if we don’t know - at present - precisely where it lies.

As always, if you have questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me. 

Thank you, Ron 

Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP

Personal Financial Advisor

Scholar Financial

 Email (preferred):
Ron@ScholarFinancial.com (clients and prospective clients)
Ron.Rhoades@wku.edu (students and others)
Phone (cell) or text me at:352.228.1672